Post by jeffolie on Oct 16, 2011 14:49:35 GMT -6
'darker days' are coming
When confidence in the Dollar happens then today's what I have been calling since 2008 as a 'regular depression for average Americans' will become far worse.
2 obvious (not so obvious choices exist) options include 1. a continuation of the long term, slow, orderly Dollar decline with shorter period rallies OR 2. an inflationary turn.
The 1st choice seems more likely but by no means is certain, deflation from lower consumer spending as deficit grow. Japan remains a current example of this long term decline. (see The Costliest Mistake In All Of Economics www.businessinsider.com/the-costly-misplaced-worry-about-the-deficit-2011-10)
The 2nd choice, inflation, appears to just have started in the UK. (see Bank of England's Quantitative Inflation Bankster's Paradise Inflationary Depression Economy www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article30989.html)
I favor the lost of confidence in the Dollar, 1st choice because I believe 'politics matter'. I remain of the opinion since I concluded that Obama would defeat Hillary in the primaries during 2008 that Obama would not be re-elected and that Republicans would sweep in 2012 bringing in less government. I continue even today with that 2008 conclussion that less government would lower consumer spending after the Obama Admin was over, resulting in a lower GDP. As with Greece and Japan, lower consumer spending continues the the long term, slow, orderly Dollar decline with shorter period rallies until confidence is lost. The details of current events favoring this choice include the Obama agreement to budget cuts from a 'super committee' which if no agreement is reach will result in cuts taking place after the 2012 elections in Jan of 2013; compounding those 'super committee' Jan 2013 cuts most likely will be additional federal fiscal budget cutting by a Republican sweep creating legislation in 2013 that would impact most likely starting 2014. This 'rhymes with 1937' when the Great Depression cuts collapsed again.
When confidence in the Dollar happens then today's what I have been calling since 2008 as a 'regular depression for average Americans' will become far worse.
2 obvious (not so obvious choices exist) options include 1. a continuation of the long term, slow, orderly Dollar decline with shorter period rallies OR 2. an inflationary turn.
The 1st choice seems more likely but by no means is certain, deflation from lower consumer spending as deficit grow. Japan remains a current example of this long term decline. (see The Costliest Mistake In All Of Economics www.businessinsider.com/the-costly-misplaced-worry-about-the-deficit-2011-10)
The 2nd choice, inflation, appears to just have started in the UK. (see Bank of England's Quantitative Inflation Bankster's Paradise Inflationary Depression Economy www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article30989.html)
I favor the lost of confidence in the Dollar, 1st choice because I believe 'politics matter'. I remain of the opinion since I concluded that Obama would defeat Hillary in the primaries during 2008 that Obama would not be re-elected and that Republicans would sweep in 2012 bringing in less government. I continue even today with that 2008 conclussion that less government would lower consumer spending after the Obama Admin was over, resulting in a lower GDP. As with Greece and Japan, lower consumer spending continues the the long term, slow, orderly Dollar decline with shorter period rallies until confidence is lost. The details of current events favoring this choice include the Obama agreement to budget cuts from a 'super committee' which if no agreement is reach will result in cuts taking place after the 2012 elections in Jan of 2013; compounding those 'super committee' Jan 2013 cuts most likely will be additional federal fiscal budget cutting by a Republican sweep creating legislation in 2013 that would impact most likely starting 2014. This 'rhymes with 1937' when the Great Depression cuts collapsed again.