Post by jeffolie on Apr 24, 2012 16:02:10 GMT -6
S&P Case Shiller Home Price Indices Chart: price going down 50% from $150,000 now...maybe to $75,000 support level during the 1990s period
I expect a continuing decline in American house prices for many years as happened in Japan and continues to this day after peaking in 1988. The above chart may show a slower rate of decline for the prolonged period until marriage again becomes popular as happened after WWII and floundered from 1928 until WWII ended 1945 when women again decided to marry & raise children to rebuild America.
Demand most likely in my opinion relies on family formations ... an indicator the FED also publishes.
Currently, the media rarely acknowledges the decline in the family structure impacts the demand for single family homes. The media quickly published stories on unwed mothers particularly among blacks but fails to connect the dots on the formation by marriage with the intent to raise children to the demand for single family houses. Today, every story on unmarrieds living together ignores that these weak relationships now outnumber marrieds thus ignoring the continuing decline in 2 good paycheck earners having the desire to raise children in a single family house that they own.
Mexicans go home
Today, news media headlined stories of the immigration flow becoming a wash, even steven, net nothing because as many Mexicans are going back to Mexico as are coming to America.
1. the net zero flow means less demand for housing in America
2. the net zero flow means Mexican women may fear their men will not stay to raise her children in America thus discouraging her from wanting to have children ... the birth rate among Mexican women in America has been declining ...
3. the attitude shift from coming to America forever or for a very long period may result in a decline in buying single family homes by immigrants who now think that their time period for staying in America is short term and/or temporary compared to prior thinking of long term.
4. Mexicans may now seek rentals who before sought more permanent housings or even buying single family houses because their attitudes have changed about staying in America.
I expect a continuing decline in American house prices for many years as happened in Japan and continues to this day after peaking in 1988. The above chart may show a slower rate of decline for the prolonged period until marriage again becomes popular as happened after WWII and floundered from 1928 until WWII ended 1945 when women again decided to marry & raise children to rebuild America.
Demand most likely in my opinion relies on family formations ... an indicator the FED also publishes.
Currently, the media rarely acknowledges the decline in the family structure impacts the demand for single family homes. The media quickly published stories on unwed mothers particularly among blacks but fails to connect the dots on the formation by marriage with the intent to raise children to the demand for single family houses. Today, every story on unmarrieds living together ignores that these weak relationships now outnumber marrieds thus ignoring the continuing decline in 2 good paycheck earners having the desire to raise children in a single family house that they own.
Mexicans go home
Today, news media headlined stories of the immigration flow becoming a wash, even steven, net nothing because as many Mexicans are going back to Mexico as are coming to America.
1. the net zero flow means less demand for housing in America
2. the net zero flow means Mexican women may fear their men will not stay to raise her children in America thus discouraging her from wanting to have children ... the birth rate among Mexican women in America has been declining ...
3. the attitude shift from coming to America forever or for a very long period may result in a decline in buying single family homes by immigrants who now think that their time period for staying in America is short term and/or temporary compared to prior thinking of long term.
4. Mexicans may now seek rentals who before sought more permanent housings or even buying single family houses because their attitudes have changed about staying in America.