|
Post by jeffolie on Jul 22, 2011 7:52:07 GMT -6
Glut of Chinese solar panels Solar panel prices are collapsing in China ... "..Prices for photovoltaic panels and their components tumbled as much as 31 percent in June from the previous month ...' Profits at Chinese solar panel stocks will dissappear plus lots of fraudulent accounting. Poor and frightened European countries have been eliminating solar support. Spain cause many bankruptcies last year. This year even Germany and Italy are reducing or ending certain subsidities for buying electricity made from solar: "... Germany, the biggest market for solar panels, installed 700 megawatts of capacity from March to May compared with a record 7,450 megawatts in the whole of 2010. The government has lowered incentives to contain a boom in installations. Italy, the second-biggest market with 5,500 megawatts installed last year, started paring subsidies in May..." An industry shakeout is developing ======================================================== Solar Earnings Mirage Brings Muddy Waters Concerns to China’s Panel Makers Jul 21, 2011 Bloomberg ReneSola Ltd. chief executive officer Li Xianshou. Li said analysts’ profit forecasts for the company were inflated after Germany and Japan pledged to shut nuclear plants after the Fukushima reactor meltdown in March. ReneSola Ltd. chief executive officer Li Xianshou. Li said analysts’ profit forecasts for the company were inflated after Germany and Japan pledged to shut nuclear plants after the Fukushima reactor meltdown in March. QJuly 1 (Bloomberg) -- Carson Block, founder of Muddy Waters LLC, talks about his research into Chinese companies and outside reaction to his reports and short-selling position on companies including Sino-Forest Corp. Block spoke yesterday with Bloomberg Television's Erik Schatzker. (Source: Bloomberg) Investors are starting to doubt profit estimates for China’s solar manufacturers as concerns about accounting practices first spotted at a forestry company spread nationwide. Directors leading audit committees quit LDK Solar Co. on July 18 and at its rival Trina Solar Ltd. (TSL) on July 12. Moody’s Investors Service on July 11 cited “accounting risks” at five Chinese companies including LDK. Muddy Waters LLC, a Hong Kong researcher, on June 2 accused Sino-Forest Corp. (TRE) of inflating its timber production. Those events widened doubts about the solar industry, which already was struggling with falling demand and prices, said Shawn Kravetz, chief executive officer at Esplanade Capital. Eight Chinese companies in the 17-member Bloomberg Large Solar Index have declined 13 percent since the Muddy Waters note, depressing share valuations to less than half the average Hong Kong’s benchmark share index. “There is a little bit of the Muddy Waters phenomenon here, be careful of all Chinese companies,” Kravetz said by phone from Boston. “Some multiples are so low because they are mirages. If you get up close, the reason the earnings look so cheap is because the earnings won’t be there.” Multiples of stock prices to earnings forecast for this year are 2.8 at LDK, 6 at Trina and 3.4 at Renesola Ltd. (SOLA) as of July 19. That compares with 11.8 times on the Hang Seng index of 46 companies. Prices Tumble Prices for photovoltaic panels and their components tumbled as much as 31 percent in June from the previous month as manufacturers tried to shift their stock while demand declined in Germany and Italy, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. “You run through the spot pricing and they can’t make any money,” said Gabelli & Co.’s John Segrich, who runs the best- performing clean energy fund over the past year among 75 tracked by Bloomberg. “There’s a real mismatch between reality and what the estimates show you.” The solar index has fallen 29 percent in the last three months, leaving it at 8.5 times expected 2011 earnings for its 17 members. The S&P 500, which trades at 13.3 times, has gained 1.1 percent over the period. The Hang Seng lost 6.9 percent. Renesola, a solar wafer maker whose sales more than doubled last year, is down 33 percent in New York trading since June 2 when Muddy Waters founder Carson Block published his note on Sino-Forest. Trina has fallen 14 percent and LDK by 9.2 percent. Renesola’s Reply Renesola Chief Executive Officer Li Xianshou said analysts’ profit forecasts for the company were inflated after Germany and Japan pledged to shut nuclear plants after the Fukushima reactor meltdown in March. “We are more objective and realistic about the market,” the Renesola executive said in a July 14 telephone interview. Spokesmen for LDK and Trina didn’t respond to calls seeking comment. The Chinese companies are trading at lower multiples than rivals in the U.S. and Europe. First Solar Inc. (FSLR) of Tempe, Arizona, trades at 13.2 times estimated earnings, Solarworld AG (SWV), based in Bonn, Germany, at 11.1 times and Solaria Energia y Medio Ambiente SA (SLR) of Madrid at 23.6 times. Analysts expect Renesola of Jiashan, China, to post profit of $137 million this year, 15 percent less than four weeks ago, according to a Bloomberg survey. The forecast for LDK slipped 7.9 percent to $311 million and the outlook for Trina declined 5.5 percent to $239 million. ‘Accounting Risks’ Moody’s on July 11 named LDK, the world’s second-biggest panel maker by sales, as one of the companies with “accounting risks” related to corporate governance. Trina, which makes solar wafers and modules, plunged 8.5 percent the following day after the head of its audit committee resigned. LDK on July 18 said Louis Tung-jung Hsieh, an independent director who led its audit committee, resigned and was replaced by Bing Xiang. The shares have lost 36 percent this year. Kravetz allowed the options he held on LDK shares to expire on July 15, he said in an e-mail. “The market conditions are very touchy, and anything like that gets sold off very quickly without any questions,” said David Li, the Hong Kong-based co-manager of the Impax Asian Environmental Fund who helps manage about $3.5 billion and avoids solar stocks because of their volatility. “The reaction, I feel, is excessive.” Registrations Revoked The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has since December revoked the registrations of eight Chinese companies listed in the U.S., the strategy Sino-Forest used to raise capital and also pursued by LDK, Trina and Renesola. More than 24 Chinese listings in New York have disclosed auditor resignations or admitted accounting misstatements since March, SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro wrote in an April 27 letter. China’s solar companies have been expanding even though the rest of the industry is struggling. The nation has doubled solar panel output in the past five years, helping increase global capacity by 9.5 gigawatts this year to 41.5 gigawatts, according to New Energy Finance. Renesola this year is aiming to almost triple its output of polysilicon even after a tumble in the price of the raw material for solar cells. Segrich, who manages $150 million of assets across the top- ranked Gabelli SRI Green Fund and a hedge fund, said his biggest short positions, anticipating price declines, are in polysilicon makers including Wacker Chemie AG (WCH) and OCI Co., which trade at 11.1 and 8.2 times expected earnings. Falling Costs He said those companies may suffer as falling costs for finished goods drive further declines in the price of the raw material. The polysilicon spot price fell 28 percent in June, according to New Energy Finance. Hedge funds including Segrich’s that helped push short positions in Yingli Green Energy Holdings Co. and Trina to the highest in a year over the past six weeks may regret their decisions, said Jenny Chase, New Energy Finance’s lead solar analyst. She expects lower panel prices to make more projects profitable, pushing annual installations to about 24 gigawatts this year compared with 18 gigawatts in 2010. ‘Strength of Upswing’ “People are going to be surprised by the strength of upswing,” Chase said in an interview. “Module prices dropped under a critical threshold in June where it starts to make sense to install panels in Germany again.” Germany, the biggest market for solar panels, installed 700 megawatts of capacity from March to May compared with a record 7,450 megawatts in the whole of 2010. The government has lowered incentives to contain a boom in installations. Italy, the second-biggest market with 5,500 megawatts installed last year, started paring subsidies in May. Installations may jump as much as 80 percent in the second half of the year from the first because of the slump in panel prices during the second quarter, Robert Clover, co-head of clean technology research at HSBC Plc in London, wrote in a July 7 report. Still, the industry has built up about 7.5 gigawatts of panel inventory which is likely to hold down prices for the next year, Clover said. “A lot of these Chinese companies have extremely unrealistic expectations,” said Jon Sigurdsen, who runs about 250 million euros ($355 million) across long-short and long-only funds at DnB NOR Kapitalforvaltning ASA in Oslo and avoids Chinese solar stocks. “They might be more expensive than they seem.” www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-20/solar-mirages-bring-muddy-waters-concerns-to-china-panel-makers.html
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Jul 22, 2011 7:53:31 GMT -6
'The cure for high prices is high prices' Solar panel supply overwhelmed the market equalibrium because Communist China subsidized manufacturing with Communist state directed industrial development and financing as a Merchantile export strategy that included the side benefit to China of providing a spreading of the risk, ramping up a new industry in China, lowering the cost for use inside China, etc. China's Communist state directed investment gamble drowned some existing solar panel manufacturers in Japan, Italy, Korea, America, Germany, etc that did not have China's Communist state control of labor costs, ignoring pollution, eliminating local competition, etc. The Communist USSR likewise developed selective manufacturing mostly in heavy industries which later failed to adapt to new technologies and mostly perished with the political demise of their evil empire which at one point included alliances of about half the world's countries. ======================================================== Short Sellers Hammer ‘Solarcoaster’ as Glut of Chinese Panels Sinks Prices Jun 20, 2011 Short sellers are flocking to solar power, dumping record levels of stock in First Solar Inc. (FSLR) and competing equipment makers in a bet that profit will be hurt by a glut of Chinese panels and shrinking demand in Europe. First Solar of Tempe, Arizona, the world’s largest maker of thin-film solar panels, had a record 23 percent of outstanding shares sold short this month, according to Data Explorers information on Bloomberg. A record 54 percent of Germany’s Q- Cells SE is short, meaning the stock was borrowed for sale by speculators who hope to buy it back later more cheaply. A surge in Chinese competition and solar subsidy cuts in the world’s biggest markets of Germany and Italy have attracted short selling that has helped push down the 37-member Bloomberg Global Leaders Solar Index 22 percent this quarter. The index’s price-earnings ratio has dropped to 15 from 19 since March 31. “The stocks look cheap, but 2012 still has massive and potentially overwhelming challenges,” said Shawn Kravetz, chief executive officer of Esplanade Capital. The Boston-based hedge fund has bought Chinese manufacturers and shorted their European competitors, he said, without naming stocks sold short. Officials for First Solar declined to comment. Thalheim- based Q-Cells did not respond to e-mails or calls. Kravetz said his colleagues who’ve invested in solar stocks for seven years call the industry a “solarcoaster” because of price volatility. The 37-member Bloomberg solar index has a 60- day volatility of 24 percent, or twice the 12 percent rating of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, according to data on Bloomberg. Evergreen, Suntech Not all out-of-favor stocks are heavily shorted. The solar index’s biggest decliner this quarter, down 56 percent since March 31, is Evergreen Solar Inc. (ESLR) of Marlboro, Massachusetts, though just 15 percent of its shares were held short as of June 16, the most recent day Data Explorers data was provided. Ten stocks on the index are shorted more heavily, including four Chinese manufacturers -- LDK Solar Co., Yingli Green Energy Holding Co., Suntech Power Holdings Co. and Trina Solar Ltd. (TSL) Merrimack, New Hampshire-based GT Solar International Inc. (SOLR), a maker of photovoltaic and polysilicon technology products, has a record 20 percent of its outstanding shares borrowed for short sales. Jim Chanos, the short seller known for predicting Enron Corp.’s collapse, last month recommended investors should bet against First Solar and said Vestas Wind Systems A/S, the largest wind-turbine manufacturer, is “best avoided.” Supply Pinch Gone “Being a buyer of PV is much nicer than being a seller,” said John Rego, chief financial officer of South Plainfield, New Jersey-based Petra Solar, which produces solar generators with integrated smart-grid connections for utilities. At the start of last year “it was rather difficult to get PV, and many smaller companies such as ourselves found ourselves in a spot market. That issue no longer exists.” As Italy and Germany slowed development of solar projects, China’s JA Solar Holdings Co. and Suntech, the world’s biggest solar-cell makers by capacity, were leading an industrywide expansion of factory capacity that will add at least 9.5 gigawatts of new manufacturing lines this year. That will boost global capacity to 41.5 gigawatts, outstripping demand of no more than 28 gigawatts forecast by New Energy Finance. Factory Expansion “We had all this capacity added right ahead of the two biggest markets showing a significant slowdown, that’s why we have a tremendous collapse,” said Gordon Johnson, a solar analyst at Axiom Capital Management in New York. He said the stocks may fall another 50 percent. "This doesn’t end nicely any time soon.’’ Manufacturers of solar cells, the device fastened to panels for converting sunlight into electricity, have cut their price about 21 percent this year, prompting panel makers to follow suit, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The solar index lost 25 percent through June 17 from its 13-month high on Feb. 18. The gauge declined as much as 0.5 percent today and traded down 0.4 percent at 1:15 p.m. central European time. Germany’s Conergy AG fell 10 percent. Global installations of photovoltaic devices doubled last year as developers rushed to hook up equipment in Germany before the government lowered incentives. New plants still may increase by about 30 percent this year as the cost of solar energy drops to near the rate consumers pay for power from the national grid in some of the sunniest parts of California and Turkey. That’s made Charles Yonts, a solar analyst at CLSA in Hong Kong, optimistic that the industry can work through its inventory without suffering additional declines. “The worst has passed for demand, but now it’s a question of working through the inventory and that’s difficult,” said Yonts, who recommends investors buy Trina Solar and Trony Solar Holdings Co. of Hong Kong. “Prices have fallen so much that returns are now attractive.” www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-19/short-sellers-hammer-solarcoaster-as-glut-of-chinese-panels-sinks-prices.html
|
|
|
Post by unlawflcombatnt on Jul 22, 2011 11:42:16 GMT -6
From reading these articles, it's unclear whether the US is importing them or not. If so, it should be stopped. Solar Panels are a perfect case for an outright Embargo on their importation into the US.
Americans apparently are producing at least some of them. And with 100 million not-employed Americans, we certainly DO have the labor capacity to produce a lot more. And apparently they ARE in demand, unlike a lot of other alternative energy products. (We have a bunch of solar panels on the house we're renting in Texas.)
Are we actually importing some of them as well???
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Jul 22, 2011 14:18:11 GMT -6
From reading these articles, it's unclear whether the US is importing them or not. If so, it should be stopped. Solar Panels are a perfect case for an outright Embargo on their importation into the US. Americans apparently are producing at least some of them. And with 100 million not-employed Americans, we certainly DO have the labor capacity to produce a lot more. And apparently they ARE in demand, unlike a lot of other alternative energy products. (We have a bunch of solar panels on the house we're renting in Texas.) Are we actually importing some of them as well??? China's solar panels are sold extensively in America and Europe. In California, Chinese solar panels dominate the market because of their much lower prices that result in thousands of dollars lower bidding prices for all levels of solar panel contracting including huge solar farms down to individual house solar electrical contracts. American solar panel manufacturers are competing and new American solar panel factories, sites are now being built. In the Big Score for solar for $4.5 Billion an American manufacturing concern won. ======================= Small Solar vs Smallish Solar vs Big Solar Big Solar's big score: Big solar got $4.5 Billion today from the federal government's loan guarantees. $4.5B is real money compared to Smallish Solar's $.28B at Google and Small Solar home systems at $.000000004 Billion each. Big Solar dominates the electrical production in California with the CA state mandate of 33% from alternative electrical generation in the near future SIGNED INTO LAW. Monopoly by geography: Electical providers such as SCE, PGE are to sole, monopoly electricity providers to homes while the very largest buyers in industry can access other sellers. Monopoly by geography and the mandate means that SCE et al build big concentrated solar electrical generating sites...this is Big Solar. Small solar means residential owners put panels on their roofs and escape the geographic monopoly ... the expense ranges from $25,000 and up with a payback of 7+ years coming with a life of system return on investment of about 10% to 25% depending on the system and electrical demand by each residence... sizeable cost and long time period commitment. With houses underwater and prices continuing to decline, the CA state screwed new comers by reducing incentives thus reducing future small solar residents who might be willing to go after that 10 to 25% return on investment ... plus no rate hikes when you produce your own electricity on your roof. Enter Google via SolarCity .... Smallish solar: $280M Google roof top panel funding I do not like SolarCity's lease program because SolarCity takes away a lot of the 10 to 25% return on investment to the resident. Just like leasing a car... the leasing company and financing bank suck up money. Small solar that happens with the resident paying cash avoids the sucking off from the rate of return. SolarCity and Google defeat the rate of return for residents. $280 million in financing from Google will create lots of leases and roof top solar panel installations. The residents better look closely at the deal with SolarCity/Google...I have no information but the 'Devil is in the Details' ... ============================ First Solar Wins $4.5 Billion in Loan Guarantees From U.S.; Shares Climb Jun 30, 2011 First Solar Inc. (FSLR), the world’s largest maker of thin-film solar modules, won $4.5 billion in conditional loan guarantees from the U.S. Energy Department for three projects it’s developing in California. First Solar’s Topaz and Desert Sunlight projects, which will each have 550 megawatts of capacity, and its 230-megawatt Solar Ranch project were each offered low-cost financing needed to begin construction, the Energy Department said today in an e- mailed statement. The agency must distribute all the funds before the loan guarantee program expires at the end of September. The Energy Department has offered conditional loans or loan guarantees to 40 clean energy projects totaling $38 billion, including $16 billion for solar energy projects. First Solar’s 290-megawatt Agua Caliente project in Arizona, which is being built for NRG Energy Inc. (NRG), in January won approval for a loan guarantee of as much as $967 million. First Solar said construction on those approved today will add 1,400 jobs and that the more than 20 million cadmium telluride glass panels used in the projects will be manufactured at plants in Ohio and Arizona. First Solar rose . New York time in Nasdaq Stock Market trading. Before today’s gain, the shares had risen 14 percent since Jan. 1. www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-30....-from-u-s-.html Read more: unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=oil&action=display&thread=9268#ixzz1SrqF7ADL
|
|
|
Post by unlawflcombatnt on Jul 23, 2011 16:36:24 GMT -6
We need an outright ban on ANY importation of solar panels. And we need it Right Now.
If that was done, it would be the 1st legitimate job creation bill for the Obama administration. And these would be long-term jobs, not short-term like census workers.
The small solar panels that are used for lighting are very affordable, and many Americans can afford them.
And though the savings on power consumption are small, they are immediate.
And again, what ever happened to all of those "green energy" jobs?
Aren't jobs making solar panels green energy jobs? Aren't these EXACTLY the kind of jobs that the Great Spineless One promised?
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Aug 25, 2011 8:42:21 GMT -6
Tariffs should be imposed immediately The only US green jobs will be US installers of Chinese panels and most likely windmills as well going down this path if uninterrupted. China's solar panels are sold extensively in America and Europe. In California, Chinese solar panels dominate the market because of their much lower prices that result in thousands of dollars lower bidding prices for all levels of solar panel contracting including huge solar farms down to individual house solar electrical contracts. American solar panel manufacturers are competing and new American solar panel factories, sites are now being built. American and European solar panel manufacturers continue to file for federal bankruptcy. In the Big Score for solar for $4.5 Billion an American manufacturing concern won because of the nature of the contract. China's new feed in subsidity will lock out competition from foriegn solar manufacturers but is a money loser which has been rolled back in most European countries except rich Germany. The clear path is the end of US solar manufacturing if this continues without trade sanctions quickly. =============================== Solar Power Market Falling Through The Floor Wednesday, 24 August 2011 “ China Moves to Support Its National Champions as the Bottom Drops Out of the Solar Market” should be the title. As an FT article points out, the price of photovoltaic solar panels has fallen by around a fifth this year and by nearly two-thirds since 2008. Overcapacity in polysilicon and finished panels — and low-cost Chinese production — are responsible for the decline, but the fall in growth rates is exacerbating the situation this year. Western manufacturers are closing factories and slashing workforces as subsidies in cash-strapped European markets are withdrawn or scaled back. Feed-in tariffs have been dramatically reduced in Spain and Italy, and even prosperous Germany is reducing rates. The reduction in subsidies is expected to slow the volume growth rate of solar panel sales from 65 percent annually over the past five years to about 15 percent through 2016, according to Lux Research quoted in the article. The good news from Lux is the fall in costs and rise in wider power generation costs may make photovoltaic cell electricity production economically viable by 2016 – now wouldn’t that be a development for renewable power! High profits and phenomenal growth rates have not helped the industry, which remains far too fragmented to consolidate even while the going was good. Now that growth rates are tumbling and additional new lower cost capacity is coming on-stream, excess capacity is a major problem. According to another FT article, spot market prices of solar cells and wafers have fallen by about 40 percent since the beginning of the year and are now below cash cost for many manufacturers. Even if the industry doesn’t opt for consolidation, rationalization will result as weaker players exit the stage. Overcapacity will get worse this year and next, favoring the larger manufacturers – mostly Chinese vertically integrated companies. A doubling of production output has historically translated to costs falling by a fifth, according to a joint report by the European Photovoltaic Industry Association and Greenpeace, cited by the FT. Nor is there anything really to choose between the manufacturers in terms of technology, so where brand plays a role, no producers have clear technological advantages. Whether Beijing recognizes this as an opportunity or sees it as a threat that needs countering, the fact remains they have moved swiftly to support the major domestic players. Even though firms like Yingli derived only about 5 percent of their sales from the domestic China market in the past, they are rapidly refocusing efforts at home following Beijing’s announcement of the first national feed-in tariff for solar projects that aims to raise solar power supply tenfold in just five years, as this article reports. Just as a similar tariff for wind projects in place since 2009 has propelled China to become the world’s largest wind farm operator, the solar feed-in tariff will, it is widely expected, have the same impact for solar. In the same way that state support and protection for steel, shipbuilding and electronics propelled Japan and then South Korea to become today’s No. 1 or 2 in those industries, so China’s support for key industries — a bewildering array of industries — will result in them becoming the unassailable No. 1 in many of the new renewable energy industries evolving todayoilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Solar-Energy/Solar-Power-Market-Falling-Through-The-Floor.html
|
|
|
Post by unlawflcombatnt on Aug 25, 2011 11:56:35 GMT -6
It's amazing all the yapping Obama has done about those "new and innovative green jobs," and then hasn't done a thing to actually preserve any of them for American workers.
Obama's nothing but a big-mouthed, self-centered political windbag.
He's all about the soundbite, not the policy or actions.
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Aug 27, 2011 14:32:12 GMT -6
Feed in Tariffs, FIT, guarantee a profit for solar panel use by the government setting a price above the cost of solar panel produced electricity net of government subsidies to buy and install the solar panels. Average consumers pay higher electricity rates to promote solar electricity ... there is no free lunch. Spain created a monster sized FIT profit and industry then reneged, backed out of paying the FIT resulting in monster sized bankruptcies all over Spain. China and Germany remain open to FIT programs. Japan is firting with a small FIT program. No American FIT programs exist that I am aware of, but significant income tax credits still exist to purchase and install with some states adding more subsidities such as California. The UK ended its FIT program with a deadline resulting in a final burst of creating FIT profitable solar panel production. The below piece details the huge 10 fold expansion of those beating the end of the FIT. ================== Countryside transformed by the solar panel rush as developers race to beat government deadline 26th August 2011 Hundreds of acres of countryside have been carpeted in solar panels after companies from across the globe flocked to Britain to benefit from a lucrative policy on solar power. The Feed In Tariff (FIT), launched in April last year. promised those who built solar 'farms' an inflated minimum price for the power generated which is fixed for the next 25 years. In a rush to beat the deadline which expired earlier this month, a sudden flurry of development has seen around 20 farms spring up, covering at least 200 acres across the country. Gold mine: Solar panel farms are springing up all over the country to take advantage of government legislation After the cut-off, the value of solar energy sold back to the national grid falls by three quarters. The speed of the construction, with some 30 acre sites springing up just weeks after planning permission was granted, has left residents stunned. Homeowners also claim the developments are inefficient, with some of the bigger schemes only developing enough power for 1,000 homes. More...Why are we not getting paid my £400 for our solar panel energy? Robin Smith's beautiful view of the Somerset Levels has been blighted by 20,000 solar panels which stretch for over a mile near Puriton. He said: 'It is blanket desecration of the countryside. I feel very sad that it is just for people lining their coffers.' The solar industry has exploded at an alarming rate in Britain. In 2010, there were just five solar farms, generating just 60 megawatts of electricity. There are now thought to be around 20 generating 300 megawatts. More than 200 companies from around the world including China, Germany and America are now operating in the UK and there are more than 2,500 certified installers. Natural beauty: Residents say the solar farms are blocking their view of the Somerset Levels The Government introduced the FIT in April last year in a bid to encourage the use of solar power. But foreign investors spotted an opportunity, with returns of 16 per cent on the cost of building solar farms. For example, a five megawatt farm would earn up to 29.3p per watt under the FIT which would normally by worth just 8.5p. Ministers spotted the gold rush and closed the tariff scheme as of August 1 however, developments simply had to be connected to the national grid - not completed - by this date. Many developments were hastily established and plugged in, with completion over the next few months. Farms have sprung up across the country, including Devon, Cornwall, Derbyshire, Somerset, Lincolnshire and areas of Wales. Reza Shaybani, chairman of the British Photovoltaic Association, said: 'All of the investors rushed into the UK hoping for solar power to be a new pot of gold, so to speak. 'It was a very lucrative deal. The UK feeding tariff was set extremely generously, giving return on investment in some cases of 12 to 16 per cent. 'This was obviously not sustainable and it would have emptied the pot very quickly.' Figures from Ofgem show a staggering leap in solar schemes - including domestic - registered to FIT. In April to June last year just 2,700 were registered but that jumped to 11,383 from January to March this year. And since the FIT scheme was launched, the taxpayer has paid out £4.4 million for the electricity generated. www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2030548/Countryside-transformed-solar-panel-rush-developers-race-beat-government-deadline.html
|
|
|
Post by unlawflcombatnt on Aug 27, 2011 22:15:42 GMT -6
If it were up to me, we'd embargo all green energy imports of any type.
It's not doing us any good to "go green" if all the jobs involved go overseas.
If the cost of domestic green energy production is so high as to completely stifle demand, then we can't afford those green energy products.
If it takes slave labor production to make the cost of green energy production feasible, then we can't afford it.
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Aug 31, 2011 13:33:16 GMT -6
If it were up to me, we'd embargo all green energy imports of any type. It's not doing us any good to "go green" if all the jobs involved go overseas. If the cost of domestic green energy production is so high as to completely stifle demand, then we can't afford those green energy products. If it takes slave labor production to make the cost of green energy production feasible, then we can't afford it. I agree. Obama took the campaign bow and pledged green jobs at different American solar manufacturing sites, but Obama's policies stopped short of stopping China's highly prioritized and subsidized solar panels from pricing them below American solar manufacturing costs. Obama 'talked the talk but did not walk the walk'. The below piece highlights one coming bankruptcy and near the end mentions another. ================================ "....Solar start-up Solyndra LLC, succumbing to pressure from lower-cost Chinese rivals, said it has suspended operations and plans to file for bankruptcy, 15 months after President Barack Obama visited a company factory that was to be expanded with the help of a federal loan guarantee. The Chapter 11 filing, expected next week, will make Solyndra the third U.S. solar company to seek bankruptcy protection in the last month. Former Wall Street high flyer Evergreen Solar Inc filed for Chapter 11 two weeks ago, followed four days later by SpectraWatt Inc, a private company that was backed by Intel Corp. Representative Henry Waxman of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce said the bankruptcies "are unfortunate warnings that the United States is in danger of losing its leadership position in the clean energy economy of the future ... We should be doing everything possible to ensure the United States does not cede the renewable energy market to China and other countries." In a press release on Wednesday, Solyndra said it could not compete with bigger overseas rivals. Earlier this year, cuts to generous solar subsidies in No. 2 market Italy stalled development of solar projects and led to a global glut of solar panels that sparked a 25 percent drop in prices. Even industry heavyweights such as China's Suntech Power Holdings Co Ltd and U.S.-based First Solar Inc are struggling with dwindling profits, while small, up-and-coming solar companies are finding it increasingly difficult to stay afloat. Solyndra said it was evaluating options, including a sale of the business and licensing its copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) technology. About 1,100 employees are being laid off immediately, it said in a statement. A company spokesman said the bankruptcy filing would likely come early next week in Delaware. "SWIMMING UPSTREAM" Solyndra simply could not compete with "Chinese firms that have received billions of dollars in low-cost loans from state banks and have access to a well developed domestic supply chain for solar manufacturing," GTM Research analyst Shyam Mehta said. The company's relatively unproven CIGS technology was another key reason for its demise, he added. "Solyndra has been swimming upstream ever since it entered the market," Mehta said. The announcement is the latest in a series of disappointments for Solyndra, whose fall from grace has been tracked closely because it received a $535 million loan guarantee from the Department of Energy in 2009. The company also made headlines in May 2010 when Obama paid a visit to the company's Fremont, California, factory. Solyndra was the first company to receive a loan guarantee under an advanced clean energy program created in 2005. The Energy Department came under criticism last year when the company postponed plans to expand the Fremont factory, cut jobs and withdrew plans for an initial public offering. At the time, U.S. firms were just beginning to smart from the rapid influx of cheap solar panels from China. In July, a congressional panel voted to subpoena White House documents related to Solyndra's loan guarantee. Republicans on the House Energy and Commerce subcommittee said they want to ensure that funds appropriated for the loan guarantee program were properly invested. Solyndra also received some $1 billion in venture capital funds from investors including CMEA Ventures, Argonaut Ventures, Madrone Partners, Redpoint Ventures, funds affiliated with RockPort Capital Partners, and U.S. Venture Partners. Prior to Solyndra, Evergreen Solar was the most high-profile U.S. solar company to collapse. Evergreen was once at the forefront of U.S. renewable energy technology and had planned to produce its solar wafers in Massachusetts. Ultimately, even a plan to shift manufacturing to Asia could not save it. Solyndra had revenue of $140 million in 2010 and had said it planned to produce 300 megawatts of solar panels this year. www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/31/us-solyndra-idUSTRE77U5K420110831
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Oct 19, 2011 8:47:40 GMT -6
$1.03 per Watt ... prices down 66% in 1.5 years My home's 1.5 year old solar electric system would have had a top line price of $6,000 less at the below cost point and California subsidy has lowered by $4,000 during the last 1.5 years for a home electrical solar system with my quantity of solar panels. ================================ October 14, 2011 Solar Module Pricing: $1.03 per Watt for c-Si How low can it go? Admittedly, Chinaland Solar Energy might not be the most bankable solar firm out there, but since they were kind enough to approach me via email, I figured, let's get a price quote. I requested a quote for 100 units of a 200-watt solar panel and received this response within 30 minutes. 200 watt panel 15.7 percent conversion efficiency 25-year lifetime CE, TUV, IEC certified $1.03 per watt FOB with a delivery time of 5 days This price is on par for a spot quote from a tier 3 manufacturer, according to GTM Research solar analysts. According to Vishal Shah of Deutsche Bank, utilization rates across the China supply chain are relatively low (probably around 50 percent even for some tier 1 suppliers). Shah also sees tier 1 vendors quoting below $1.00 per watt. The CEO of a solar firm just told me that he received a price quote of $0.85 per watt from a tier 3 supplier. No company, Chinese or otherwise, can long survive selling products below cost while running a factory at 50 percent utilization rates. At some point, the Chinese government and Chinese banks might have to let these third-tier firms fail. www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/solar-module-pricing-1.03-per-watt-for-c-si/
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Oct 19, 2011 14:41:47 GMT -6
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. solar panel manufacturers on Wednesday filed formal trade complaints with regulators to combat “illegal” subsidies by Chinese solar panel makers. The newly-formed Coalition for American Solar Manufacturing submitted requests to the U.S. Department of Commerce and International Trade Commission to seek “relief from China’s illegal trade activities,” the group said in a statement. The cases allege “dumping margins” in excess of 100% as well as “massive” subsidies by China. “Artificially low-priced solar products from China are crippling the domestic industry,” said Gordon Brinser, president of Oregon-based SolarWorld Industries America Inc., a unit of Germany’s SolarWorld /quotes/zigman/201949 DE:SWV +3.57% . Brinser also leads the Coalition for American Solar Manufacturing. SolarWorld is asking the U.S. government to impose duties “to provide relief” for manufacturers of traditional, crystalline solar panels. The request does not cover makers of thin-film solar panels such as First Solar. The case also excludes other types of solar power such as thermal solar, which uses heat from the sun to create steam to drive generators. “The Chinese do not play by the rules,” said Sen. Ron Wyden (D., Ore.) who attended the press conference for the coalition. Brinser, who leads the coalition of seven domestic manufacturers, said China’s attempt to dismantle the U.S. industry has cost thousands of jobs. “China’s wrongful tactics run systematically across the board; central planning has subsidized most facets of these companies’ business,” Brinser said. “China actually has no production cost advantage. Labor makes up a modest share of solar-industry costs, China’s labor is less productive, its raw material and equipment have come from the West and China must pay for long-distance shipping. Yet massive state subsidies and sponsorship have enabled Chinese manufacturers to illegally dump their products into a wide-open U.S. market.” The effort comes as lower margins in solar panels have driven shares of solar companies down on both sides of the Pacific. Just last week, First Solar FSLR -8.66% , the only pure-play solar panel manufacturer in the S&P 500, saw its shares fall to their lowest level since 2007. Shares of First Solar fell 6.4% to $52.35 on Wednesday. In the U.S., solar panel manufacturer Solyndra went bankrupt earlier this year, touching off a political battle over its federal loan guarantee of $535 million. Besides Solyndra, other manufacturers have also gone bankrupt including Evergreen Solar and SpectraWatt. www.marketwatch.com/story/us-solar-firms-file-trade-action-against-china-2011-10-19
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Oct 20, 2011 15:28:21 GMT -6
Oil prices mirror solar stock prices = delining trend Chinese funding supports continued glut US solar stocks collapsing =========================================================== Three (3) Reasons Why Solar Stocks Are Sinking (TAN, FSLR, JASO, STP, YGE) October 19th, 2011 Jared Cummans: After enduring a miserable 2010, most investors were pleased to see solar hit the ground running this year, as a number of equities tied to this industry enjoyed double digit gains for several months. But as the year progressed, solar stocks quickly began to reverse their winning ways, dragging them even lower than where many had been at last year. These extreme losses come as a thorn in investors’ side, especially given that solar energy is arguably the fastest growing renewable energy in the world. Last year saw the overall industry grow by nearly 73%, leading to an average annual growth of 39% over the last decade [see also Company Spotlight: First Solar (FSLR)]. But if solar’s overall capacity is really spreading like wildfire, why are the equities that track it not reaping the benefits? There are a number of factors that have contributed to the decline in these assets, but three in particular stand out from the rest: 1. Lack Of Funding Like so many alternative energy programs, solar relies heavily on government subsidies and favorable tax treatment to get its business off the ground. Unfortunately, in times like these, alternative energy spending comes last on the list for various governments, as congress is already dealing with overwhelming budget cuts and deficits. Perhaps the most prevalent example comes from Solyndra, a solar company that was heavily backed by the federal government, but was forced to file for chapter 11 bankruptcy and lay off all employees. Though the company cited plummeting silicon prices for its main losses, it is clear that the tax breaks totaling in $25 million, and government backing of over $500 million was simply not enough to keep it going [see also Three Things Wall Street Journal Didn’t Tell You About Commodities]. But for the time being, the government sees more important things to spend money on, and rightly so given the drowning economy that we are desperately trying to keep afloat. Though solar’s capacity may be growing, a lack of government subsidies is eating into bottom line returns, as many companies heavily rely on this funding to remain profitable, ultimately driving down their stock prices [see also Detailing Gold’s Wild Q3]. 2. Crude Oil Prices Though crude oil has seen something of a rebound in the last week, its prices have been steadily dropping throughout 2011, as the commodity climbed as high as $110 per barrel earlier in the year. Since the beginning of July, crude has been sinking at an alarming rate, dipping down to nearly $70 per barrel before recovering to a more steady price. Not coincidentally, crude’s demise created a very similar pattern in solar stocks. When crude oil prices drop, demand rises as people can suddenly buy much more with the same amount of money, and when the demand for crude increases, it drastically cannibalizes the demand for solar [see also Crude Oil Crushed: Buy or Sell?]. Solar energy, and all alternative energies, have trouble competing with crude’s low prices, and that has been one of the main barriers to entry in the economy. When crude is cheap, there is simply no way for these energies to compete with its prices, putting a mountain of pressure on the stocks from each individual sector. Note that this process works in reverse; in 2008 when oil was sitting at $140 per barrel, solar stocks had been performing extremely well, then as crude came crashing back to earth, so too did the high flying stocks. Investors in the solar industry need to keep a watchful eye on crude oil prices, as it has a parallel relationship to solar equities. 3. Chinese Competition Though solar stocks in China have felt the pinch like everyone else, it is the competition that these companies offer that is hurting the industry. A number of Chinese solar firms have high government funding, unlike the developed world, allowing them to set the market with extremely competitive pricing. This forces a number of American and European firms to sell their products for lower than they would like, and takes a major slash out of revenues. Many have accused the Chinese market of over-saturating the solar space, as there are now a wealth of cheap photovoltaic modules on the market and not enough projects to fill them with [see also 25 Ways To Invest In Silver]. Solar Stocks Below, we outline three solar equities that have been hit hard in the latter half of 2011: •First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR): One of the most popular solar companies, this U.S. based firm has suffered losses of 56% on the year, with 57% losses from July 1st through now, proving that second half of the year has been extremely hard on solar stocks. •JA Solar Holdings (NASDAQ:JASO): This Chinese solar firm is an investor favorite with an average daily volume topping 5 million. This stock is down 72% in 2011 and has incurred losses of 66% since July 1st. •Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSE:TAN): This fund features a basket of solar companies from all around the world, giving investors broad exposure to the industry. Like most solar equities, TAN has had a rough 2011, dropping 52%. etfdailynews.com/2011/10/19/three-3-reasons-why-solar-stocks-are-sinking-tan-fslr-jaso-stp-yge/
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Nov 10, 2011 17:21:15 GMT -6
Solar Glut to Worsen After Prices Plunge 93% " ... 90 percent of supplies are sold under long-term contracts ... from $475 three years ago ... will fall into the $20s from about $33 ... $30 once a shake-out reduces oversupply after 2012 ... prices will reach $25 within three weeks and likely remain near that level for at least two years ... =================== " ... About 90 percent of supplies are sold under long-term contracts, many of which are under pressure to be renegotiated. Charges for contract cancellations can be more than 20 percent of their value, HSBC said... Narrowing Margins Wacker’s profit margin will shrink by 4 percentage points to 21 percent in the fourth quarter from the previous three months... REC has developed a technique which works in a few hours and reduces the energy required by as much as 90 percent, making it the cheapest way of making solar-grade silicon ... Polysilicon ... price soared to $475 in March 2008 from about $30 in 2003. ... new factories are set to keep opening. ... reach about 500,000 tons by 2014 ... 266,000 tons this year “Prices are going to go significantly lower ... certain people that go out of business.” Prices Plunge Spot prices will fall into the $20s from about $33 today and are likely to stabilize at around $30 once a shake-out reduces oversupply after 2012, according to Sean McLoughlin, an industry analyst in London at HSBC Bank Plc, echoing a similar forecast by Macquarie. Leming of Ticonderoga says prices will reach $25 within three weeks and likely remain near that level for at least two years. www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-10/solar-glut-to-worsen-after-prices-plunge-93-on-rising-supply-commodities.html
|
|
|
Post by graybeard on Nov 10, 2011 19:09:19 GMT -6
There's a huge lot of Solyndra panels for sale on ebay.
I'm ready to buy when the price gets down to $1 a watt.
|
|
|
Post by unlawflcombatnt on Nov 10, 2011 23:20:39 GMT -6
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. solar panel manufacturers on Wednesday filed formal trade complaints with regulators to combat “illegal” subsidies by Chinese solar panel makers. The newly-formed Coalition for American Solar Manufacturing submitted requests to the U.S. Department of Commerce and International Trade Commission to seek “relief from China’s illegal trade activities,” the group said in a statement. The cases allege “dumping margins” in excess of 100% as well as “massive” subsidies by China. “Artificially low-priced solar products from China are crippling the domestic industry,” said Gordon Brinser, president of Oregon-based SolarWorld Industries America Inc., a unit of Germany’s SolarWorld /quotes/zigman/201949 DE:SWV +3.57% . Brinser also leads the Coalition for American Solar Manufacturing. SolarWorld is asking the U.S. government to impose duties “to provide relief” for manufacturers of traditional, crystalline solar panels. The request does not cover makers of thin-film solar panels such as First Solar. The case also excludes other types of solar power such as thermal solar, which uses heat from the sun to create steam to drive generators. “The Chinese do not play by the rules,” said Sen. Ron Wyden (D., Ore.) who attended the press conference for the coalition. Brinser, who leads the coalition of seven domestic manufacturers, said China’s attempt to dismantle the U.S. industry has cost thousands of jobs. “China’s wrongful tactics run systematically across the board; central planning has subsidized most facets of these companies’ business,” Brinser said. “China actually has no production cost advantage. Labor makes up a modest share of solar-industry costs, China’s labor is less productive, its raw material and equipment have come from the West and China must pay for long-distance shipping. Yet massive state subsidies and sponsorship have enabled Chinese manufacturers to illegally dump their products into a wide-open U.S. market.” www.marketwatch.com/story/us-solar-firms-file-trade-action-against-china-2011-10-19Does anyone know what the status of the request for relief and imposition of duties is?
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Nov 11, 2011 16:39:57 GMT -6
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. solar panel manufacturers on Wednesday filed formal trade complaints with regulators to combat “illegal” subsidies by Chinese solar panel makers. The newly-formed Coalition for American Solar Manufacturing submitted requests to the U.S. Department of Commerce and International Trade Commission to seek “relief from China’s illegal trade activities,” the group said in a statement. The cases allege “dumping margins” in excess of 100% as well as “massive” subsidies by China. “Artificially low-priced solar products from China are crippling the domestic industry,” said Gordon Brinser, president of Oregon-based SolarWorld Industries America Inc., a unit of Germany’s SolarWorld /quotes/zigman/201949 DE:SWV +3.57% . Brinser also leads the Coalition for American Solar Manufacturing. SolarWorld is asking the U.S. government to impose duties “to provide relief” for manufacturers of traditional, crystalline solar panels. The request does not cover makers of thin-film solar panels such as First Solar. The case also excludes other types of solar power such as thermal solar, which uses heat from the sun to create steam to drive generators. “The Chinese do not play by the rules,” said Sen. Ron Wyden (D., Ore.) who attended the press conference for the coalition. Brinser, who leads the coalition of seven domestic manufacturers, said China’s attempt to dismantle the U.S. industry has cost thousands of jobs. “China’s wrongful tactics run systematically across the board; central planning has subsidized most facets of these companies’ business,” Brinser said. “China actually has no production cost advantage. Labor makes up a modest share of solar-industry costs, China’s labor is less productive, its raw material and equipment have come from the West and China must pay for long-distance shipping. Yet massive state subsidies and sponsorship have enabled Chinese manufacturers to illegally dump their products into a wide-open U.S. market.” www.marketwatch.com/story/us-solar-firms-file-trade-action-against-china-2011-10-19Does anyone know what the status of the request for relief and imposition of duties is? November 8, 2011 China-US Solar Trade War: CASE vs. CASM A response to SolarWorld from 25 American solar firms. This is going to get ugly. In this corner, CASE, wearing an American flag over a Chinese flag, is Carbon War Room, Solar City, SolarFirst, Sungevity, Suntech America, SunRun, Trina Solar, Verengo, Yingli Americas, Recurrent Energy, et al. In the other corner, CASM, wearing an American flag over a German flag, is SolarWorld. And six unnamed solar companies. And 75 associate organizations, including the United Steelworkers union. Today was the first day of hearings at the U.S. International Trade Commission for the anti-dumping claim made by SolarWorld against China. It was mostly preliminary posturing. A coalition has now formed to rebut the claims of SolarWorld and their coalition. CASE is trying to make the U.S. public aware of the impact of the claim by SolarWorld, according to its spokesman. Speaking for CASE, Kevin S. Lapidus, Senior VP and General Counsel at SunEdison, claimed at today's press that the SolarWorld case would be harmful to the U.S. solar market. In a bit of a surprise at today's hearing, according to Lapidus, SolarWorld attempted to change the market and scope of the case from solar cells to any modules including Chinese cells. This was done at the last minute according to Lapidus. The change, if accepted, would capture module manufacturing by Chinese firms in small U.S. factories such as Suntech's Arizona plant or Canadian Solar's North American factory. Jigar Shah, CEO of Carbon War Room and founder of SunEdison, said in a CASE press release that "Despite the remarkable progress, the U.S. still represents only 5 percent to 10 percent of the global solar marketplace. Placing protectionist barriers against more efficient and affordable solar cells -- whatever their origin -- discourages innovation and investment. Now is the time to move forward, not backward, on our clean energy goals. We must not walk away from one of the greatest opportunities of the 21st century." The CASM viewpoint, according to a recent statement from Gordon Brinser, the President of SolarWorld Industries America (headquartered in Hillsboro, Oregon), is that "China is cheating on global trade rules." Brinser also said that "China’s state-sponsored solar industry is receiving massive illegal subsidies and is illegally dumping crystalline silicon solar products into the U.S. market." Brinser continues, "China’s illegal actions are undercutting fair market value and threatening to eliminate America’s solar manufacturing. [...] As long as China is allowed to continue cheating, there is no way America can expect to compete in the solar energy race." Lapidus notes that SolarWorld has "excluded a major competing product from their petition." That would be thin film modules. Lapidus notes that thin film sets the benchmark for solar panel prices. Lapidus claims that SolarWorld is working against U.S. public policy goals to grow renewable power. He notes that the solar market is one of the few growth areas of the U.S. economy, and that more than half the solar employment picture is in the installation and downstream portion of the value chain -- not in cell or module manufacturing. Lapidus also notes that the 2.6 gigawatts of solar that could be installed in the U.S. in 2012 hinges on certain module prices and that "an exogenous price shock to modules" in the form of a tariff could render many of the solar projects unviable, negatively impacting U.S. investment and jobs. He reiterated that such a price shock will threaten jobs upstream and downstream. He said, "Price declines have brought us close to grid parity. The imposition of tariffs will be a setback to the U.S. solar industry." www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/china-us-solar-trade-war-case-vs.-casm/
|
|