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Post by jeffolie on Jul 29, 2012 19:40:20 GMT -6
Japan slowly rolls over again, dying economy/culture The Yen is strong and demand for Yen denominated debt remains strong ... otherwise Japan would collapse instead it slowly dies decade after decade since its peak in 1989 ... Stocks at 8600 down from 40,000 declining 79% after 23 years along with housing prices remaining depressed from lack of children Slowly Japan is dying as every effort and event fails to ignite Japan's economy and culture. Even the boost to Japan's economy from insurance and govt to rebuild from the earthquakes and Tsunami have rollover back into decline... the dead cat bounce endedWith 25% or more of the young adult men not even dating, the drive to form families and thus residential construction remains gone. With the refusal to allow men from the West or East to immigrant because of their consensus for a mono-culture, homogenius goals of uniformity, the resulting lack of fresh males to stimulate family formations has been devistating to their declining birthrate and culture. Below the proof can not be disputed: "... consumer prices unexpectedly declined ... industrial production unexpectedly declined ... the yen’s strength is undermining a recovery that has been supported by government spending on earthquake reconstruction and incentives to purchase fuel-efficient cars ... Japan’s government downgraded its assessment of industrial production for the first time since September, saying output is in “a flat trend.” ... " Will this be America's fate...the US birthrate recently collapsed 25% to barely replacement rate...most likely America will drop to well below replacement rate within just 2 years. Why? Mexicans have gone home from the lack of work in construction, factories, etc and new immigration laws being passed by individual states...resulting in their birthrate in America collapsing; while the newest and now larger immigrant group, the Chinese are not having an American birthrate close to the departing Mexican men. ============================ Japan’s Production Unexpectedly Falls as Korean Confidence Sinks By Keiko Ujikane - Jul 29, 2012 Japan’s industrial production unexpectedly declined and South Korean manufacturers’ confidence dropped to a three-year low as global demand weakened. Production fell 0.1 percent in June from May, when it slid 3.4 percent, Japan’s Trade Ministry said today. The median estimate of 29 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 1.5 percent gain. The South Korean confidence index for August was at 70 from 81 for July, the central bank said. Weakness in the U.S., European and Asian economies is fueling speculation that extra stimulus may be rolled out in coming months by central banks including the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. (8301) European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s success in taming the euro region’s debt crisis may be the key to the global outlook after he pledged to do whatever it takes to preserve the common currency. “It’s increasingly likely that the Fed and ECB will ease further by September and I think the BOJ will follow,” said Masamichi Adachi, a senior economist at JPMorgan Securities in Tokyo and a former central bank official. In Japan, “it’s a very likely scenario that the government will implement a supplementary budget this autumn and the BOJ will expand the asset-purchase program again.” Today’s Korean data followed a slide in a measure of the nation’s consumer confidence. Asian stocks rose for a third day, with the regional benchmark index extending the biggest gain in a month, on optimism that Draghi will make headway. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.7 percent to 116.68 as of 9:02 a.m. in Tokyo. Geithner, Weidmann Fed policy makers hold a two-day meeting this week. Draghi is trying to build consensus among governments and central bankers for a plan to ease borrowing costs in Spain and Italy before ECB policy makers convene on Aug. 2. He meets with U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner in Frankfurt today and is also attempting to win over Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, a critic of ECB bond purchases. In Japan, the yen’s strength is undermining a recovery that has been supported by government spending on earthquake reconstruction and incentives to purchase fuel-efficient cars. The yen rose more than 6 percent against the dollar since mid- March, hurting exporters such as Canon Inc. (7751) and Nintendo Co. The currency traded at 78.49 per dollar as of 9:34 a.m. in Tokyo, and last week reached at 11-year high against the euro. Inflation, Retail Sales Japan’s government downgraded its assessment of industrial production for the first time since September, saying output is in “a flat trend.” Production of cars for overseas fell in June, it said. Last week, government reports showed that consumer prices unexpectedly declined and retail sales rose less than economists forecast. While government subsidies for purchases of fuel-efficient cars have bolstered consumer spending and production, those gains may fade in the coming months. Mizuho Securities Co. sees the program expiring by mid-August. Japan’s economic growth probably slowed to an annual pace of 1.6 percent in the three months ended June 30 from a 4.7 percent expansion in the first quarter, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-30/japan-s-june-industrial-output-falls-as-recovery-loses-momentum.html
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Jul 29, 2012 23:46:36 GMT -6
Population decline is a completely normal and a healthy response to poor economies.
Without such a decline, countries experience the kind of disasters that are taking place in Africa and other 3rd world countries.
We should applaud Japan's population decline, as the perfect adjustment to declining, mismanaged economy--where excess money printing and low interest rates were implemented as a panacea to all that ailed the economy.
Hopefully this country will learn from Japan's mistakes, and disavow the notion that giving more money to rich bankers--in the hopes of it "trickling down" to the rest of us--is a fatal mistake.
And if the US continues down the same moronic Bernanke-esque path it is going down at present, hopefully our population growth will decline in response.
Population decline is always, ALWAYS good. Period.
We have too many workers in the world already, and not enough production demand to employ them.
We don't need more workers to sustain retirees.
We need current workers to have high enough incomes to support those retirees.
More workers reduces the aggregate income of workers by suppressing wages.
Less workers increases aggregate income of workers by pushing up wages.
A smaller pool of workers has more pricing power than a larger pool of workers. That's what unions are all about. They restrict the number of workers available for employment in a certain field, forcing employers to pay higher wages to employ enough of them.
That's a win-win for everyone except those greedy bastards at the very top.
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Post by jeffolie on Jan 1, 2013 11:28:41 GMT -6
Japan slowly rolls over, dying economy/ culture" ... a sixth straight year of declines. The number of births fell ... " As James Grant said [see below reference] the Japanese 'can not procreate nor inflate'... my view includes this would be similar to what happened in the US during the Great Depression crashed birthrate and deflationary bouts. ========================================== Japan’s Population Falls by Record in 2012 as Births Decrease Dec 31, 2012 Japan’s population last year declined by 212,000, the biggest drop on record, according to an estimate by the nation’s health ministry. That’s the largest reduction since the ministry started recording the data in 1947 and a sixth straight year of declines. The number of births fell by 18,000 to a record low of 1.03 million last year, the ministry said. www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-01/japan-s-population-falls-by-record-in-2012-as-births-decrease.html============================================== " ... All of this doesn't have to happen, but it will take a lot of ingenuity and flexibility on the part of major decision makers to avoid it. Most would have to change their policies, and the chances of that are slim at best. ... ' I agree that the crisis will most likely not be avoided. I disagree that the crisis will not result in a 'save the world' action. my jeffolie view: the above piece ignores the political efforts to 'save the world' most likely from China, Japan, the FED added to the failing Germany, failing EU ... re-inflating with 2 or more Trillion would be 2ND nature to a 'world collapse' assembly of these nations and their Central Banks. The most likely result would be to prolong the 'bottoming period' I predict to start in 2016 for 10 years to end no sooner than 2026 or more but on a World wide level. A rhyme of history would have China emerge from a political revolution to be reborn more 'democratic' or in the alternative fracture as did the USSR into a semi capitalistic democracy headed essentially like Russia by oligarchies/warlords. The US could rhyme with the reduced trading empires of the past such as the UK, Denmark, etc. or in the alternative apply the resources of nat gas to manufacture for domestic consumption replacing the collapsed world trade. I prefer this attributed to Mark Twain 'history never repeats, but sometimes at best it rhymes'. The 'bottoming period' prolonged by assembled CBs could resemble the deflationary prolonged Japan instead of featuring inflationary very difficult for the dollar situation if a new world currency becomes central to the 'save the world' effort. As James Grant said the Japanese 'can not procreate nor inflate'... my view includes this would be similar to what happened in the US during the Great Depression crashed birthrate and deflationary bouts. www.unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=globalization&action=display&thread=11881#ixzz2GYcYl3hF
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Post by jeffolie on Jan 13, 2013 11:53:16 GMT -6
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Post by jeffolie on Feb 1, 2013 18:26:48 GMT -6
Japan’s Demographic Disaster 02/01/2013 Submitted by John W. Traphagan via The Diplomat, Japan is faced with an unprecedented population challenge that will have social, economic, and political consequences for years to come. Last August, I wrote an article for The Diplomat that discussed some of the issues Japan is facing in relation to population decline. As I noted, the population has dropped for three years in a row. Recently, the Japanese government announced that the population decrease for 2012 is expected to be 212,000—a new record—while the number of births is expected to have fallen by 18,000 to 1,033,000—also a record low. Projections by the Japanese government indicate that if the current trend continues, the population of Japan will decline from its current 127.5 million to 116.6 million in 2030, and 97 million in 2050. This is truly astonishing and puts Japan at the forefront of uncharted demographic territory; but it is territory that many other industrial countries also are beginning to enter as well. Predicting the consequences of Japan's demographic shift is difficult. And it is important to remember that these are projections; it seems to me unlikely that this trend will continue for the next century without some sort of intervening political, cultural, or economic factors that generate increased immigration or more robust fertility rates. Indeed, there have been modest—very modest—increases in the number of foreign residents in Japan over the past twenty years, with a little over twice the number today (2,134,151) as compared to 1990 (1,075,317). Many towns have developed international centers where opportunities are developed and supported, creating contexts for interactions between local residents and foreigners such as a monthly English dinner hosted in the town where I have done fieldwork for several years. Government officials have often explained to me that one of the goals of these initiatives is to create contexts in which Japanese people can interact, and thus become more comfortable with, foreigners. The widespread presence of foreign English teachers supported through the JET program and other English language programs has also meant that, unlike forty for fifty years ago, most younger Japanese have grown up regularly interacting with individuals from other countries. At the same time, there has been some immigration of women from other Asian countries, such as the Philippines, into rural parts of Japan for the purpose of marrying men who otherwise would have had difficulties finding a wife among the native population. These developments may allow for increased openness to immigration in the future, although for the most part, the Japanese government has remained lukewarm, at best, when it comes to allowing any significant increase in the number of permanent residents or immigrants. Naturalized Japanese citizenship remains difficult to obtain. While predicting the future of these demographic trends is difficult, the causes are at least somewhat decipherable. The proximate cause of population decline in Japan are fairly clear: a low fertility combined with increased life expectancy has led to a population structure that is increasingly weighted towards older members of society. Currently there are significantly fewer people under 30 than there are between the ages of 30 and 60. As the population of middle-aged individuals grows older and dies, there will be far fewer people remaining behind. In other words, the current middle-aged generation of Japanese has failed to replace itself. The question, of course, is why? Various studies of demographic change in Japan have linked declining fertility to other changing social factors such as increased education, delayed marriage age, more economic opportunities for women, and the expense of raising children in modern, urban societies. All of these have played a role in reducing fertility over the past few decades. In addition, beyond delayed marriage many Japanese have chosen not to marry and, as a result, not have children. According to the 2010 census, 30% of all households in Japan were single, representing the largest category of household composition in the country. A significant portion of these households were widows over the age of 65. At the same time, a not insignificant portion were women and men in both early adulthood and middle-age who have simply chosen to not get married. In a society like Japan where child-birth out of wedlock is stigmatized, the decision not to marry also normally means that one has chosen not to have children. Indeed, there are many women in Japan today in their forties and fifties who have opted for a career over marriage and child-rearing. In Japan, social pressures make it difficult for women to manage a career while also raising a family. Furthermore, recent trends suggest that both men and women are increasingly uncertain about the value of marriage and having a family. A government survey of people between the ages of 18 and 34 in 2011 showed that over 61% of unmarried men among those surveyed lacked a girlfriend and 49.5% unmarried women had no boyfriend, the latter being a new record. Forty percent of respondents indicated that there was no need to marry and 45% of men showed no interest in "dating the opposite sex." These results, which represented significant increases over the same type of survey conducted in previous years, have raised concerns that the population problem Japan is facing will not change in the foreseeable future. The consequences of changing attitudes about marriage and gender roles and associated low fertility are considerable. One problem that has arisen is that many single women are living on very low incomes and have joined the ranks of the poor. Recent research has shown that 1 in 3 single women of working age in Japan qualify as poor and that the number of poor women in Japan is likely to increase; by 2030 it is projected that 1 in 5 women in Japan will be single. Many of these women may well be living in some level of poverty. Another problem Japan faces is that the general low fertility rate means there are not enough younger people paying into the national pension program, and this will cause increasing strain on government coffers as the proportion of elderly (currently about 23% of the population is over 65) continues to grow. Finally, the decline of the population over the next few decades, and the shortage of young people in particular, will have a significant impact on the Japanese labor force. Questions related to how to maintain economic growth—an issue that has been at the forefront of thinking about the country for the past twenty years, due to a generally sluggish economy—with a decreasing population are both complex and on the minds of policymakers. One obvious solution to this would be for Japan to relax immigration policies and allow for more workers, particularly healthcare workers, to enter the country. As noted above, to date this has not been a particularly palatable solution, but this may well change as younger Japanese, with regular experience and interactions with foreigners, move into positions of power and guide policy. An alternative to this social-centered solution of increased immigration has been raised in recent years. Rather than relaxing immigration laws, some have proposed increasing investment in robotics as a means of addressing the conflict of a shortfall of labor with the need for workers. This idea has been raised particularly in relation to elder care, where demand for workers has increased rapidly with the promulgation of the longer term care insurance program in 2001 and the continued growth of the elderly population. It may well be that a technological solution to Japan’s population problem will be seen as preferable to other possible solutions. Obviously, only time will tell. But Japan is faced with an unprecedented population challenge that will have social, economic, and political consequences over the next century—consequences that will not only affect Japan, but also influence Japan’s trading partners as well as its political and military allies. There is, perhaps, no single variable in the complex web of East Asian politics more uncertain in terms of how it may influence future relations throughout the region than the fate of Japan’s population, because the manner in which that population changes over the next several decades is both difficult to predict and likely to have a profound influence in shaping the regional role Japan is able to play as a political, cultural, and economic power. www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-01/japan%E2%80%99s-demographic-disaster
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Post by jeffolie on Feb 2, 2013 10:24:51 GMT -6
Will this be America's fate...the US birthrate recently collapsed 25% to barely replacement rate...most likely America will drop to well below replacement rate within just 2 years. Why? Mexicans have gone home from the lack of work in construction, factories, etc and new immigration laws being passed by individual states...resulting in their birthrate in America collapsing; while the newest and now larger immigrant group, the Chinese are not having an American birthrate close to the departing Mexican men.
Will the American birthrate remain at near even or continue downward?
my jeffolie view: POLITICS MATTERS, the current political continuing, status quo favors a continuing decline in America's birthrate. I expect that America's economy and politics will remain relatively unchanged, gridlocked in 2013 with some small additional decline in 2014 accelerating into the STARTING of a BOTTOMING PERIOD of 10 years or more in 2016 ... resulting in a lower birthrate as anger against govt balloons from just 19% to about 66% during the long BOTTOMING PERIOD ... afterward a popular war the birthrate will increase generating a long GROWTH PERIOD of about 30 years.
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Post by jeffolie on Feb 21, 2013 7:55:01 GMT -6
February 20, 2013 Sony’s Moment of Truth This evening, Sony will unveil its PlayStation 4. The leaked photos, rumors, and prognostications make it sound pretty darn exciting. But the company needs more than that, because this is the precise moment at which Sony traditionally fails. Sony used to be bigger than Samsung, and it used to be bigger than Apple. It also made really cool stuff. Check out the Pinterest page for Retro Sony Products. If you were born before 1990, you’ll surely get something of a buzz. The Trinitron was very, very cool. Today, measured in market capitalization, Sony is about one-fifteenth the size of its rival in Seoul and close to one-thirtieth the size of its rival in Cupertino. It hasn’t made money in five years. This isn’t just a bad thing for one company; it’s a bad thing for a country. Sony was founded in the rubble of Tokyo after the Second World War, and its fortunes have mirrored Japan’s. Sony caused a cultural panic when it bought Columbia Pictures, in 1989. Apple made almost enough profit last quarter to buy Sony. What happened? Part of the problem was cultural; for a long time, Sony had too many teams creating too many things. The company also kept putting its money on crippled horses. “3-D will sweep the world,” Howard Stringer, its previous C.E.O., said less than three years ago. And Sony holds onto products, and proprietary systems, for too long. The Walkman was awesome. And it should have been the iPod. Instead, it became the MiniDisc. By the time Sony won its fight to make Blu-ray a standard, physical discs were becoming obsolete. Now, gaming consoles are in trouble, too. A million Angry Birds have crashed into them; Farmville Farmers have dug up the grass around them. The Sony PlayStation 2 sold about a hundred and fifty million copies. The PlayStation 3 sold roughly half that. According to the NPD Group, as cited in the Wall Street Journal, sales of consoles, accessories, and games have declined in every month for more than a year. There were nearly three smartphones sold last year for every console of the current generation ever sold. So what does Sony need to do? The company’s fortunes, and margins, have improved slightly in recent months, partly owing to a weaker yen. Now, they need to transform the PlayStation franchise into something new. What we see tonight needs to be more than just a better version of something old. It needs to help us reimagine how we use gaming consoles and how we play games. Otherwise, the PS4 is going to end up as a cool little image on a retro Pinterest page. . www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2013/02/sonys-moment-of-truth.html?mbid=gnep&google_editors_picks=true
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Post by jeffolie on Mar 28, 2013 20:08:53 GMT -6
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Mar 29, 2013 11:46:01 GMT -6
I'm still having trouble understanding how "deflation" itself is a problem.
If it's due to deficient production demand--then that itself would be a problem.
But I don't see has the gradual increase in buying power from the increasing value of the currency hurts anything. If anything it should help.
And the fairy tale that people 'hold on to their money and wait to buy something later due to "expectations" of additional, future increases in their buying power' is an economic science fiction.
I've never heard of anyone in real life ever holding on to their money because they thought it would buy more in the future, nor have I heard of many people doing the opposite--spending more of their money now because they expected it to buy less in the future.
Some of this may apply to bankers and other financial hucksters, but it has no application to the less-affluent 98% of us.
I hold on to money now because I'm afraid I won't have any in the future. And I don't spend any more now--instead of in the future--simply because it will be worth less in the future.
I don't think most other people do either.
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Post by jeffolie on Mar 29, 2013 12:39:47 GMT -6
I'm still having trouble understanding how "deflation" itself is a problem. If it's due to deficient production demand--then that itself would be a problem. But I don't see has the gradual increase in buying power from the increasing value of the currency hurts anything. If anything it should help. And the fairy tale that people 'hold on to their money and wait to buy something later due to "expectations" of additional, future increases in their buying power' is an economic science fiction. I've never heard of anyone in real life ever holding on to their money because they thought it would buy more in the future, nor have I heard of many people doing the opposite--spending more of their money now because they expected it to buy less in the future. Some of this may apply to bankers and other financial hucksters, but it has no application to the less-affluent 98% of us. I hold on to money now because I'm afraid I won't have any in the future. And I don't spend any more now--instead of in the future--simply because it will be worth less in the future. I don't think most other people do either. Deflation can have good aspects and bad ones. Falling prices mean those with constant incomes can buy more for their bucks. Falling prices means those invested in inventories lose value motivating businesses to avoid carrying any inventory at all. Deflation motivates businesses to reduce paying workers when the goods or services produced bring in less money. Creative people adapt to rising, declining and/or stable prices with approachs leveraging up the trend in prices. When pervasive price trends become significant then the twisting and bad impact on the country becomes the seeds for a reversal when the trend changes ... a roller coaster of malinvestments, asset bubbles then busts dislocating industries and masses.
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Post by jeffolie on Jun 9, 2013 8:02:29 GMT -6
Japanese Birth Rate Plunges To Record Low As Death-Rate Hits Record High 06/07/2013 There are many headwinds to deflation-monster-fighting Abe's plans to bring Japan back from the ledge but perhaps the biggest one is the demographic disaster. As Japan News reports, the decline in Japan's population set another record in 2012 with the number of deaths exceeding births for the sixth year in a row. Records were broken everywhere. The number of babies born in the nation in 2012 fell by 13,705 from the previous year to hit a new low of 1,037,101 and while a total fertility rate of 2.0 children per woman will maintain the population at a stable level. Japan’s rate has continued to fall since dropping below 2.0 in 1975. Meanwhile, the number of deaths in 2012 hit a record high of 1,256,254, increasing by 3,188 from the previous year. The greying of Japan continues and worse still, the young, for many reasons, are not having children as the number of women in their 20s who had a child in 2012 decreased by 16,200. Will the fourth arrow of Abenomics be a state-sponsored unprotected sex-a-thon? www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/06/20130607_fert.jpg A total fertility rate of 2.0 children per woman will maintain the population at a stable level. Japan’s rate has continued to fall since dropping below 2.0 in 1975. It slumped to an all-time low of 1.26 in 2005. Despite the increase in the fertility rate, however, the survey showed that the graying of the nation and the fall in population continues. The number of women in their 20s who had a child in 2012 decreased by 16,200 from the previous year, while the number of births among women aged from 35 to 39 and from 40 to 44 increased by a combined total of about 8,700. the-japan-news.com/news/article/0000286695www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-07/japanese-birth-rate-plunges-record-low-death-rate-hits-record-high
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Post by jeffolie on Jul 1, 2013 16:42:40 GMT -6
Japan and China similarly suffer 2 months of economic issues ... death spirals remain================================================ Abenomics Update: Domestic Japanese Car Sales Plunge 15.8% 07/01/2013 While last night's Tankan manufacturing reports met lowered expectations, it seems the reality of the domestic Japanese economy remains as bleak as ever. As Nikkei reports, Japan's domestic sales of new cars, trucks, and buses declined 15.8% for a year earlier in June for the second consecutive month. Even if one argues that Abenomics goal is not just boosting the domestic economy, total Japanese car sales were down almost 11% YoY as Honda saw its sales drop a stunning 40.7%. The latest figures continue this year's downward trend and while some blame the particularly sharp drop on fewer selling days in June, the auto dealer's association also said reflects the "ongoing severe" situation in the domestic market. www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/07/20130701_japancar.jpg Via Nikkei, ... The latest figures continue this year's downward trend as sales have flagged after the government subsidies on eco-friendly cars expired in September. The association said that sales for the first half of this year are so far 11.6% off from a year earlier. While the association partly attributed the particularly sharp drop last month to the fewer number of selling days, it said it also reflects the "ongoing severe" situation in the domestic market. Of Japan's Big Three auto makers, Honda Motor Co. suffered the steepest percentage fall in sales in June with a drop of 40.7% to 26,757 vehicles, followed by Toyota Motor Corp. which logged a 18.3% decline in sales to 121,514 vehicles. Nissan Motor Co. posted a 12.4% drop to 37,309 vehicles. www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-01/abenomics-update-domestic-japanese-car-sales-plunge-158
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