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Post by jeffolie on Oct 17, 2012 15:46:01 GMT -6
Misery Index predicts the winner as ? I have problems with the Misery Index as shown by Deutche Bank: 1. Wrong jobless rate: it should use U6 or U7 instead of U3 2. Wrong inflation rate: it should use barts CPPI, Consumer Purchasing Power Index. my jeffolie view: the better Misery Index using U7 plus CPPI would not favor Obama, it would favor Romney; however, the high correlation of the direction of the stock index favors Obama, not Romney. The election remains too close to call.=========================================== www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/chart4.pngwww.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/10/10-wednesday-pm-reads-6/
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Post by jeffolie on Oct 17, 2012 17:09:40 GMT -6
bart posted his Misery Index chart with his different jobless measures and inflation measures my jeffolie view: the likely voters are the motivated to actually turnout. In this election which is now too close to call, the 'turnout' matters. The meme now is that few are undecided, so the best approach is to get the party faithful to help the party's voters to the polls.
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