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Post by jeffolie on Dec 11, 2012 9:54:12 GMT -6
China doomed: failing trade empire trade falls: jobs lost in US, Germany, China As the Chinese dump products into America for Xmas the price of more than adequate PCs has collapsed. China and Germany are trading empires not military empires ... the sole remaining superpower is America living beyond its means from monetized govt bonds and monetized govt mortgage bonds. China risks political instability with its 8% jobless rate [ see 1st graphic below ] because China failed to achieve its 5 year plan of transitioning away from exports into a Chinese domestic consumer economy fast enough. CHINA IS DOOMED when America's imports from China creates revolution or military coup in China ... most likely at extremely high risk by the start of America's bottoming period which my jeffolie view has consistently posted as about 2016. ======================================= www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/pm-reads-monday-new.jpg2.bp.blogspot.com/-ZP0t0rKM2PQ/UMc3H8YBo_I/AAAAAAAAWzo/o020FjBHWfs/s1600/TradeOct2012.jpgBoth [US] exports and imports decreased in October. US trade has slowed recently. Exports are 9% above the pre-recession peak and up 1.0% compared to October 2011; imports are 4% below the pre-recession peak, and down 0.8% compared to October 2011. www.calculatedriskblog.com/#cUiRGO4fQ9pqXjMG.99
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Post by jeffolie on Jul 27, 2013 15:36:43 GMT -6
China doomed: failing trade empire trade falls: jobs lost in US, Germany, China As the Chinese dump products into America for Xmas the price of more than adequate PCs has collapsed. China and Germany are trading empires not military empires ... the sole remaining superpower is America living beyond its means from monetized govt bonds and monetized govt mortgage bonds. China risks political instability with its 8% jobless rate [ see 1st graphic below ] because China failed to achieve its 5 year plan of transitioning away from exports into a Chinese domestic consumer economy fast enough. CHINA IS DOOMED when America's imports from China creates revolution or military coup in China ... most likely at extremely high risk by the start of America's bottoming period which my jeffolie view has consistently posted as about 2016. ======================================= www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/pm-reads-monday-new.jpg2.bp.blogspot.com/-ZP0t0rKM2PQ/UMc3H8YBo_I/AAAAAAAAWzo/o020FjBHWfs/s1600/TradeOct2012.jpgBoth [US] exports and imports decreased in October. US trade has slowed recently. Exports are 9% above the pre-recession peak and up 1.0% compared to October 2011; imports are 4% below the pre-recession peak, and down 0.8% compared to October 2011. www.calculatedriskblog.com/#cUiRGO4fQ9pqXjMG.99 00 " ... The Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 47.7 in July, down from June's 48.2. It was the third straight month the economic barometer remained below 50, the dividing line between growth and contraction ... " China and Germany are trading empires not military empires ... the sole remaining superpower is America living beyond its means from monetized govt bonds and monetized govt mortgage bonds. China risks political instability with its 8% jobless rate because China failed to achieve its 5 year plan of transitioning away from exports into a Chinese domestic consumer economy fast enough. CHINA IS DOOMED when America's imports from China creates revolution or military coup in China ... most likely at extremely high risk by the start of America's bottoming period which my jeffolie view has consistently posted as about 2016. ================================================= JULY 25, 2013 The Smart Money Turns Bearish on China By STEVEN M. SEARS Despite the recent rally, options traders are positioning for a pullback in China. Maybe you should too. Some options investors are taking a trust but verify approach toward China. They are buying bearish puts on the primary proxy of China stocks, the iShares China Large-Cap exchange-traded fund (ticker: FXI), even after Premier Li's July 9 speech to support growth and employment. He said 7% economic growth was the "bottom line," suggesting the government would use policy tools to spark economic growth, which sparked a stock rally. Yet Tuesday's release of a broad measure of economic activity, the HSBC/Markit Purchasing Managers Index, is prompting some defensive positioning toward China in the U.S. options market. The Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 47.7 in July, down from June's 48.2. It was the third straight month the economic barometer remained below 50, the dividing line between growth and contraction. The number surprised the 19 economists whose estimates shaped the consensus estimates, indicating a possible adverse ripple effect in positioning among investors who relied on the optimistic outlook. In reaction to the report, Susquehanna Financial Group advised clients that defensive puts, which increase in value when stock prices fall, were active on the China ETF. In a trade emblematic of sentiment, an investor bought 5,000 November $34.50 puts for $1.77. The put was essentially at-the-money, which means the strike price matched the share price. Investors normally hedge securities by buying puts with strike prices that are slightly lower than the associated stock price because the puts are less expensive. Spending more money to buy a put with a strike price matching the stock price indicates high confidence that a stock will decline. The November put captures three PMI reports. If the fund drops to $30, for example, the put is worth $4.50. Investors who want to hedge the China fund can mimic the November $34.50 put purchase or lower the strike price and buy the November $34 put for $1.63, which will be worth $4 if the fund drops to $30. The fund's 52-week intraday low is $31.35, so the put purchases suggest concerns of a retest of that low, a critical support level. If the fund, recently around $34, dips toward that level, put trading will accelerate. The interest in hedging FXI is at odds with the fund's recent performance. Though the fund is down 13% this year, the rally on Premier Li's remarks broke the downward trend, and the fund is up 10% in the past month. So the hedging action should be viewed as a nascent sign some investors believe government support may not come until late November or December. .STEVEN SEARS is the author of The Indomitable Investor: Why a Few Succeed in the Stock Market When Everyone Else Fails. online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748704755304578627920873199346.html?mod=BOL_GoogleNews&google_editors_picks=true
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Jul 27, 2013 21:56:48 GMT -6
China doomed: failing trade empire trade falls: jobs lost in US, Germany, China As the Chinese dump products into America for Xmas the price of more than adequate PCs has collapsed. China and Germany are trading empires not military empires ... the sole remaining superpower is America living beyond its means from monetized govt bonds and monetized govt mortgage bonds. China risks political instability with its 8% jobless rate [ see 1st graphic below ] because China failed to achieve its 5 year plan of transitioning away from exports into a Chinese domestic consumer economy fast enough. CHINA IS DOOMED when America's imports from China creates revolution or military coup in China ... most likely at extremely high risk by the start of America's bottoming period which my jeffolie view has consistently posted as about 2016. Exactly. China's domestic demand will never come close to taking the place of lost US import demand, due to the extremely low wages of Chinese workers. Demand for labor in China will be limited by the stagnant wages of the West's worker-consumers whom they rely on to buy their products--the same worker-consumers whose wages have been suppressed by competition with low-wage Chinese workers.
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Post by jeffolie on Jul 30, 2013 12:10:47 GMT -6
In this issue • China is in total collapse. • Japan's bubble has burst. • The coming crash. • More! July 30, 2013 Ignore the Next Fed Chairman Debate... Asia is in Collapse The big news is what’s going on in Asia. The US financial media continues to focus on who will be the next Fed Chairman, which is unimportant in the grand scheme of things. Greenspan created the biggest asset bubble in history. Bernanke bankrupted the republic and created an even bigger bubble trying to prove his misguided theories. Whoever takes over the reins at the Fed next will simply have the honor of being in the driver’s seat when the whole mess goes over the cliff. Ignore the next Fed Chairman debate, the world has much bigger problems to worry about. Let’s start with China. China’s economy is based on fraud, not actual growth. The talking heads believe China will hit 7% GDP growth this year. Their electricity consumption is only up 2.9%. Can anyone explain how a country can be consuming electricity at 2.9% growth and hit GDP growth at 7%?
Take a look at the Chinese stock market. We’ve just taken out the “recovery” trendline going back to 2009. And we’ve done this at a time when China has just pumped $1.6 trillion in new credit (that’s 21% of GDP) into its economy in the last two quarters… gainspainscapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/sc-14.png?inf_contact_key=b0a97e1b88d4f8bc3d541f6ac78e1a6e8cd53403cc47073d5b1ce5031568efae When you put an amount equal to 21% of your GDP into your banking system in six months and the stock market still falls, it’s GAME OVER. Take a look at Japan. Abenomics (print even more money faster) was supposed to bring about growth. Instead, all it’s done is increase consumer prices. This in turn hurts incomes. And that implodes an economy (one which hasn’t seen major growth in 20+ years I might add). The Abenomics bubble has burst. The Nikkei has failed to reclaim its trendline. This bull market is OVER. gainspainscapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/sc-23.png?inf_contact_key=982295e91194d398874198a2f7037c6d9c72dbfefa4834028a7f7bb63b0f5de0So the second and third largest economies in the world are in collapse with stock market crashes. What are the odds the world is somehow going to continue to grow through this? What are the odds that the next Fed Chairman will be able to manage this mess? The Great Crisis, the one to which 2008 was just a warm up, is approaching. The time to prepare for it is BEFORE the US stock market bubble bursts. www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-07-30/asia-collapse-next-fed-chairman-doesnt-matterSubmitted by Phoenix Capital Research on 07/30/2013
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