|
Post by jeffolie on Mar 2, 2014 10:53:28 GMT -6
The Invasion So Far: Visual Summary Of Russian Forces And Movements 03/01/2014 Moments ago Interfax reported that two Russian anti-submarine warships have appeared off the coast of Ukraine's Crimea region, violating an agreement on Moscow's lease of a naval base, according to a Ukrainian military source as saying. Then again what else would a Ukrainian military source say. The source added that the two vessels, part of Russia's Baltic Fleet, had been sighted in a bay at Sevastopol, where Moscow's Black Sea Fleet has a base. So imagine two extra anti-sub ships off Sevastopol in the map below which until this latest update from Contemporary Issues and Geography, was keeping an accurate running update of all the most recent developments in the staggered Russian invasion of the Ukraine. www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-01/invasion-so-far-visual-summary-russian-forces-and-movements
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Mar 22, 2014 16:47:57 GMT -6
The Russian rouble has tumbled -20% against the US-dollar and has lost -27% of its value against the Euro compared with a year ago. A weaker rouble increases the costs of imports for Russian consumers, and in turn, fans a faster rate of inflation. The Russian consumer price index (CPI) is +6.2% higher compared with a year ago. The CPI might be even higher, except for the dampening influence of a weakening Russian economy that is barely growing at a tepid +0.7% annualized rate in January. However, a faster rate of inflation, and higher borrowing costs for Russian companies, caused by a weaker rouble, can sink the Russian economy into a recession later this year. And that’s the secret G-7 game plan, — working to weaken the Russian rouble, and exert upward pressure on Russian interest rates, in order to topple the Russian economy into a severe recession, and ultimately force the Kremlin to roll back its takeover of Crimea. Alexei Kudrin, chief economist of the Russian president’s Economic Council, said on March 13th, that capital flight from Russia might accelerate to $50-billion per quarter in 2014, if harsher sanctions are imposed on the country over the Ukrainian crisis. “If the sanctions only affect the accounts of certain individuals, enterprises, operations or products, this will be a mild scenario,” Kudrin said. Still, capital flight, uncertainty and the higher interest rates needed to support the ruble will take their toll on Russia. Like the Soviet Union in the 1980’s, Russia cannot afford a cold war. It said that Russia is in effect ejecting itself from the BRICS. Yet in a strange way, Moscow figures that Western sanctions on foreign bank accounts might act to discourage the vast amount of dirty money flows out of the country. Since the Russian military invaded Crimea on March 3rd, the Russian central bank has been forced to abandon its “flexible” approach to managing its currency, and instead, was forced to burn through a sizable chunk of its massive FX stash, selling $22-billion to defend the rouble. Bank Rossi has also jacked-up its 1-week repo rate by +150-basis points to 7-percent, to tighten liquidity, saying the decision was aimed at preventing “risks to inflation and financial stability associated with the recently increased level of volatility in the financial markets.” The yield on Russia’s 3-month bank deposit rates has shot up even higher to 9.32% today, compared with around 7.25% at the start of the year. Moscow’s ability to win the battle over the Russian rouble, depends to a large extent on its ability to continue to rack-up trade surpluses, that can replenish its stock of foreign currency reserves. Russia earns a net $16-billion per month, on average through foreign trade. Russia’s trade surpluses are largely fuels by exports of industrial commodities, such as aluminum, diamonds, crude oil, natural gas, palladium, nickel, platinum, and timber. Russia is the world’s largest producer of palladium, used in the auto industry for making catalytic converters for gasoline-powered vehicles. Russia also controls 15% of the world’s platinum supply and is a big supplier of titanium, a vital metal used by the aerospace industry. From less than 50% in the mid-1990s, the share of commodities in Russian exports has grown to 70% today, with oil accounting for more than half of export income. Equaling 20% of the country’s GDP and half of its economic growth since 2000, hydrocarbons provide half of the Kremlin’s budget revenues. Alexei Kudrin, former finance minister, estimated the Kremlin’s break-even price at $117 per barrel last year. The legacy of the Russian petro-gas state is the centrality of oil and natural gas revenues, which amounted to $215-billion last year. The difficulty with enacting effective sanctions against Russia lies in Western Europe, where many nations now depend on cheap Russian natural gas to fuel their economies. Germany leads the group, purchasing 40% of its natural gas from Russia. Czechoslovakia, Finland and Ukraine, receive 100% of their natural gas from Russia. Poland receives 82% of its energy from Moscow. Thus, Putin has been credited with strengthening Russia’s economic leverage. .... Unlike Europe, however, Russia’s tolerance for economic pain is almost limitless, as has been repeatedly demonstrated throughout history. In any contest over pain thresholds, Russia would win hands down. ... .... It seems clear that no one either in Europe or in the White House has the will to take effective measures against the Russians. www.financialsense.com/contributors/gary-dorsch/cold-war-lite-battle-over-russian-rouble
|
|
|
Post by unlawflcombatnt on Mar 26, 2014 22:31:37 GMT -6
A weaker rouble increases the costs of imports for Russian consumers, and in turn, fans a faster rate of inflation. Which makes Russian-produced goods cheaper in comparison to foreign goods, which increases Russian demand for Russian production.
Which, compared to a real, non-manipulated, per-capita rate of the US economy, is roughly the same. (An economy cannot perpetually "grow" faster than the rate of aggregate wage increases, since that's what limits the purchasing power and goods purchases, and hence the dollar-value of purchased goods--which is what GDP is measured from.)
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Mar 27, 2014 4:36:54 GMT -6
I am busy with my father's estate issues including a tax issue. I will see a CPA this morning regarding his return. On rare occasion I post stock market replies.
|
|