|
Post by nomad943 on Oct 4, 2007 16:42:37 GMT -6
I know it isnt a commodity but it is a liquid non dollar denominated asset. What do ya all think. With the dollar off 30 +/- % versus the Euro would it make any sense to diversify into the Euro now or is it likely too late to catch that train outa this town? Arent EU economies and governments similar to ours and thus just as likely to be fiscaly irrespinsible?
|
|
|
Post by graybeard on Oct 4, 2007 21:15:28 GMT -6
Last year it was revealed that the traitor Darth Cheney had most of his money in Euros. Some of my IRA is in a Northern European mutual fund that's about doubled in dollar value in the last four years, but it's only a fraction of my assets, and I'm not a natioinal leader that should be expected to show patriotism.
At this point, about anything has a better future than the dollar.
GB
|
|
|
Post by unlawflcombatnt on Oct 5, 2007 3:13:45 GMT -6
Gold might be a good investment to consider. It's increased over 180% in price since Bush took office.
One problem with the Euro is that European central banks will further cut interest rates and further devalue the Euro. We basically have global currency inflation, though the US dollar is losing value faster than any other major currencies.
|
|
|
Post by nomad943 on Oct 5, 2007 6:43:01 GMT -6
A little personal background. I rode gold from @300 in the late 90s to 700 last year. During all that time I watched what was a clearly manipulated market hold the price down for so many years that any incling I may have had that a free market actualy existed for commodities was destroyed. What I was left with was a box of shiny coins and a stubborn streak which led me to an actual booked gain. Now gold is even higher. I would be left to ponder how many tons of the metal are still sitting in government bank vaults waiting to be released into the market to destroy free thinkers. In the end I would have to view such a move as a gamble and gambling is what I swore to avoid. Right now my "security" plan is to offset my "insured" dollar denominated IRA CDs with dollar denominated debt (mortgage). Pretty stupid plan assuming I ever break into positive net worth but somehow it seems I should be able to find a better way to avoid the inevitable meltdown. Either way, I can grow my own food
|
|
|
Post by unlawflcombatnt on Oct 8, 2007 17:48:02 GMT -6
A little personal background. I rode gold from @300 in the late 90s to 700 last year. During all that time I watched what was a clearly manipulated market hold the price down for so many years that any incling I may have had that a free market actualy existed for commodities was destroyed. I see your point about gold. I've delved into gold price fixing myself. And I'm still unsure how much gold price fixing has actually occurred. It seems that gold price manipulation would change the long-term trend in gold price changes-- compared to silver and platinum. Thus, if gold prices changes paralleled silver & platinum price changes, it suggests gold prices were not manipulated. But if price changes diverge between gold vs silver/platinum, it suggests there was price manipulation. That's my theory, at least. There are obvious limitations to my theory--including, but not limited to, the fact that silver & platinum do have industrial uses, while gold has almost none. Thus, increased industrial activity in certain areas would increase the demand for silver and/or platinum, causing their prices to rise more than those of gold. Even with those caveats, however, it's still worthwhile to do a comparison. Below is a chart I made using graphs from Kitco.com. It compares gold prices with those of silver & platinum from 1995 through October 9, 2006. The area where gold prices diverge is colored in yellow. The chart provides evidence that there indeed was price manipulation from 1996 to 2000. It further suggests that manipulation began declining in 2000, and was nearly undetectable by 2003. From 2003, gold prices have moved in tandem with silver and platinum. Somewhere on this board, I've posted an article (or articles) that detail some of the mechanisms used to manipulate gold prices. In general, 1 of the mechanisms described is the sale of borrowed gold to purchasers who do not take possession. In this way, the same gold can be counted more than once. The original gold lender lists ownership of the gold, while the non-possessing buyer of this same gold also lists ownership of the gold. This results in creation of a "virtual" gold supply, in addition to the actual gold. Adding the virtual gold supply to the actual gold supply increases the perceived supply of gold. And since in-creasing the supply causes de-creases in price, the price of gold is suppressed. I'll try to find the earlier post I referred to, and either bump it or re-post it.
|
|
|
Post by nomad943 on Oct 8, 2007 19:38:19 GMT -6
I do not recall the manipulation being anything resembling subtle. This was at the time of the Euro's creation and lo and behold, every time the news cycle would lead one to beleive gold would be breaking out, some central bank or another would make a big splash announcing that they would soon be unloading X tons of the metal directly into the open market. Rarely was physical gold even delivered, but just the implied threat was enough to beat down and hold down the price for extended periods of time, similar to currency intervention techniques. It led one to beleive that there was a concerted effort by central bankers to defile the concept of an alternative to fiat currencyand could be implimented at any time on any whim. The same style of manipulation seems to be occuring more recently with oil and the use or misuse of the SPR.
|
|