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Post by jeffolie on Nov 11, 2010 9:25:01 GMT -6
physical silver I have posted before that there is a paper silver market and a physical possession silver market. The physical, possession of silver is forcing a squeeze on the paper shorts: "...SLV was up a mind-blowing 11,342,666 troy ounces!!! That is a record daily receipt that will probably stand for a long time, as it's equivalent to about six days of world silver production... and is well over 25% of what the United States will dig out of the ground in all of 2010!!! One wonders where they got it all from, as virtually all of U.S. silver production disappears into the silver eagle program. And lest we forget, Sprott is still owed about 15 million ounces of top of that...." I have a special fondness for 'the poor man's metal', Silver. Most of our modest family's physical hoard of gold and silver is silver. I got overly enthusiatic in 2008 and 'backed up the truck' with a whole variety of different forms of silver at below $10 per ounce. I took some criticism and grief for my over the top long days that took many weeks buying physical silver to the point where therapy was suggested by one person. But, I was determined to take possession of physical silver at as low a price as I could manage with our modest family savings. Below is in except relating to the physical possession of silver: ==================================================== "...In commentary to his subscribers yesterday, silver analyst Ted Butler had the following to say about the CME's increase in silver margin requirements... "The real scandal in this silver margin increase was not that it occurred, but that it took so long to be enacted. Over the past three months, the price of silver increased by around 50%. Yet the exchange never increased margins once. That was irresponsible. The reason the CME didn't increase silver margins over this time was because to do so as prices were rising would have put more pressure on the shorts... something the exchange wants to avoid at all costs. The CME is almost totally interested in protecting the interest of the big shorts, like JPMorgan, who are the most important members of the exchange. The exchange would never do anything against the interest of its most important constituents, unless it had a gun to its head." "...Since raising margins becomes inevitable in a price rally at some point, the exchange did the next best thing... it timed the margin increase so that it came at a time when it would least likely hurt, and maybe help, its big constituent member short holders. That time is always best when the price makes a sudden reversal down after a big climb." '...And that, dear reader, is probably one of the reasons why the CME has told CFTC chairman Garry Gensler to drop dead regarding position limits on commodities in general... and silver in particular. The CME is protecting its big constituents which, in silver and gold, are the '8 or less' bullion banks... led by JPMorgan. '....The CME's Delivery Report didn't have much to show in the way of deliveries yesterday... 41 gold contracts and 4 silver contracts. '....But the U.S. Mint had another sales report... adding 12,500 ounces of gold eagles and another 675,000 silver eagles. The month-to-date figures are now up to 33,000 ounces and 1,590,000 ounces respectively. '...The GLD ETF reported a minor decline yesterday. This time it was 39,066 ounces. But the SLV ETF was a shocker... and I checked with both Ted Butler and Nick Laird to make sure that I wasn't seeing things, as the SLV was up a mind-blowing 11,342,666 troy ounces!!! That is a record daily receipt that will probably stand for a long time, as it's equivalent to about six days of world silver production... and is well over 25% of what the United States will dig out of the ground in all of 2010!!! One wonders where they got it all from, as virtually all of U.S. silver production disappears into the silver eagle program. And lest we forget, Sprott is still owed about 15 million ounces of top of that.www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/edition/slv-etf-adds-record-11342666-troy-ounces-silver
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Post by jeffolie on Nov 11, 2010 10:16:22 GMT -6
I have long predicted and still predict that the significant Dollar crisis will start after the 2012 elections and take more than a year (like the fall of the USSR Rubble and British Pound) to reach a completion. The Euro will have significant problems by November of 2011 as a European version of 'the politics of the backlash' unseats some European government leaders and legislators from unhappy screwed Europeans suffering from European government austerity while Screwflation raises the prices of middle and lower class expenses such as college tuition (Britain just tripled college tuition to as high as $14,000 a year abcnews.go.com/International/london-students-protests-british-governments-move-triple-tuition/story?id=12110218 and there are now riots by students), health insurance premiums, food and energy. What is happening now is a physical delivery short squeeze in silver and Central Bank buying of gold. Metals and lots of commodities move inverse the the Dollar but not in a perfect, negative one for one relationship. Metals will generally increase in price in 2011 & 2012. The biggest price increases will be in 2013 and beyond from collapsing currencies.
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Post by jeffolie on Nov 13, 2010 16:22:01 GMT -6
SLV ETF Adds Massive 523 Tonnes Of Silver In Current Week There were some very odd occurrences in the world's largest silver ETF, the iShares SLV. After the exponential increase of the price of silver in the spot market, almost hitting $30/share on November 9, the SLV ETF, which like GLD purports to holding the underlying precious metal, saw a massive basket creation demand, amounting to a whopping 523 tonnes of actual silver added to the fund's holdings (equivalent to 16.8 million ounces, at a cost of about $456 million) for the week ending November 12, currently at a record 10,718 tonnes. While we don't purport to knowing how much free silver is available in the open market, the possibility that any one entity could have manged to purchase such a massive amount of actual silver, of which 352 tonnes was supposedly acquired on November 10, without completely destabilizing the actual supply and demand mechanics, and creating a vicious loop where basket creation leads to a further surge in prices, is just slightly mind boggling. As we have speculated earlier, we expect comparable activity in the GLD ETF to follow suit. Additionally, we will shortly look at this week's CFTC COT data to determine just how massively JPM's silver short has impacted the firm's P&L. P.S. for those who may be wondering, the custodian, i.e., entity in charge of vaulting the "silver", is good ole RICO-lawsuit embroiled HSBC. (full SLV prospectus link) www.zerohedge.com/article/slv-etf-adds-massive-523-tonnes-silver-current-week
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Post by jeffolie on Nov 17, 2010 9:50:43 GMT -6
I do not trade our metals. IF this physical squeeze develops then I will enjoy the ride. I hold my family's modest hoard of gold/silver with the intention of riding out to after the Dollar crisis is completely over which should be many years down the road. I continue to expect a tight market and even a squeeze on PHYSICAL SILVER. "last week we started to see some shortages in physical silver....it could be weeks or months before dealers are able to restock. In the interim, the squeeze will be on, and silver prices and premiums may head much, much higher than what we are seeing right now." =================================================================== The Wrap The big drop in both gold and silver prices on Monday certainly caused the open interest numbers to decline in both metals. In gold, open interest fell 10,183 contracts... and in silver, o.i. was down 2,269 contracts. All this was the result of tech funds pitching longs... and the bullion banks covering shorts or going long themselves. Tuesday was another huge volume day in both metals. The CME's preliminary report issued in the wee hours of this morning shows that gold traded pretty close to 300,000 contracts net of all roll-overs... and silver was right up there once again with a net volume of just under 100,000 contracts. It will be interesting to see what the declines in open interest are when the final figures are posted later this morning. It will be the first thing I check once I've perused the gold and silver prices. Whatever those declines in open interest are in today's report, they will all show up in Friday's Commitment of Traders report... and it should show massive tech fund long liquidation and equally massive short covering by the bullion banks. That's what Ted thinks... and I agree with him. I received an interesting comment from Reed Larsen, the General Manger of the Old Glory Mint out of West Jordan, Utah early yesterday morning. Unfortunately it arrived too late for my Tuesday commentary, but I'm more than happy to post it here, now. Apparently they're seeing a little tightness in the physical market... and I'll let Reed do the honours from this point... "I thought you might like to know that late last week we started to see some shortages in physical silver. Here's what happened: "On Tuesday of last week, we experienced the largest volume day in the history of the Old Glory Mint. When the dust settled, we had taken orders totaling more than 2 metric tons of silver. We had no problem buying silver to fill those orders. However, the next day, and through the end of the week, a few of our suppliers started warning us that they were running low on physical silver, and a couple of them had sold out." "Although our mint is well prepared to meet demand during short-term market squeezes like this one, we did start checking around with some of the major refineries, other suppliers and even some of the larger dealers around the country to see if a widespread shortage was developing. Everyone we talked with at both the wholesale and retail levels had seen a dramatic increase in demand at about the same time we did. We found that many refiners were experiencing heavy order volumes and production backlogs. Many dealers were sold out of most or all of their larger silver bullion bars, while others had no silver product available at all except for the ones that carry the highest premiums." "The last time this sort of thing happened was approximately two years ago, when supplies dwindled to the point that almost nobody had anything available to sell (you might recall that even Kitco had nothing available for sale on their website for quite a while). Even though the price of silver itself didn't seem to move much during the shortage, the real price (the "premiums" on the street) that we and others had to pay went through the roof because of the lack of availability of physical silver. In my mind, the fact that the "market" price of silver didn't go into orbit back then is only attributable to the lid that 'da boyz' kept on the market." "This time, I don't know that they will be able to keep the lid on. If they can't, then silver prices (and premiums) might be headed "to the moon" sooner than many of us think. Since typical turn-around times for mints are 3-13 weeks, when situations like this occur, it could be weeks or months before dealers are able to restock. In the interim, the squeeze will be on, and silver prices and premiums may head much, much higher than what we are seeing right now." "Thanks for everything, Ed, and keep up the great work!" Reed Larsen, General Manager Old Glory Mint www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/edition/margins-silver-increased-second-time-week
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Nov 22, 2010 12:07:58 GMT -6
Anyone who bought silver earlier this year, or already had some, has experienced a 50% increase in the value of their holdings. In the last 3 months, both paper silver and solid silver have gone up in price by +50%. This is 5x the rise in the Dow and Gold. Below are some charts showing silver's rise. The top chart is the price of paper Silver (SLV) compared to Gold (GLD) and the Dow. ------------------------ Below is comparison of Kitco solid Silver prices for the 3 months+ between Aug 2, 2010 and Nov 22, 2010. The key prices are underlined in green. Attachments:
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Post by jeffolie on Nov 22, 2010 16:44:08 GMT -6
Widespread Silver Bar Shortages By Patrick A. Heller on November 18th, 2010 As of today, there are no longer any regular wholesale supplies of the 1 ounce through 100 ounce silver rounds and bars available for immediate delivery. It may be possible to locate incidental quantities of some product, but most wholesalers are now promising two to four weeks delivery to allow time for the silver to be fabricated. As a result of the shortages, premiums have started to rise. So far, the increases have been modest, on the order of 0.5-2%. However, if the shortage grows, expect to see further and larger premium increases in the coming weeks. We could see a repeat of the late 2008 gold and silver buying frenzy, where product availability got as slow as 1-4 months after payment. At the COMEX close yesterday, registered (dealer) silver inventories fell below 50 million ounces. Even if you include the eligible (investor) silver inventories in the COMEX bonded warehouses, which are not available to fulfill COMEX deliveries unless the investor specifically chooses to do so, there were barely 107 million ounces to fulfill around 725 million ounces of contractual obligations. COMEX silver inventories are now down more than 10% from mid-June even while the amount of silver owed has soared! As the price of silver almost continuously rose from $17.98 on August 23 to $29.36 mid-day on November 9 (a 63% increase), the COMEX had not changed its minimum requirements for leveraged accounts. It would be a normal process to periodically bump us the minimum amounts for margin accounts as prices rise, but this was not done until November 9, when the margin requirement was increased from $5,000 per contract to $6,500. On September 16, the COMEX further raised the silver contract margin requirement to $7,250—even though the price of silver had been dropping since November 9! What is suspicious is that a lot of “insiders” were liquidating their silver positions starting the afternoon of November 15. Is it possible that they may have received advance notice of the coming change in the minimum margin account requirement and sold in anticipation of lower prices the next day? The next round of gold and silver options expiration occurs on Tuesday, November 23. The attempt to suppress gold and silver prices upon the release of the US jobs and unemployment report on November 5 was almost a complete failure. Unless something is done to knock down gold and silver prices before November 23, a lot of call options will be exercised, which would further increase the demand for physical precious metals. I suspect, as do many others, that the two rounds of increasing gold and silver margin requirements were timed for no other reason other than to try to help hold down prices through November 23. Don’t be surprised if supplies of other low premium physical silver products, especially US 90% Silver Coin, dry up, with those premiums also starting to rise. If you are looking to acquire some physical silver, I suggest you act sooner rather than later. news.coinupdate.com/widespread-silver-bar-shortages-0542/
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Post by jeffolie on Nov 22, 2010 16:44:35 GMT -6
How will this short term physical silver shortage play out?
In my opinion, the physical squeeze has stopped a possible very large decline that should have happened when the Dollar Index got stronger, up to near 80 from about 75.50
Silver at about $28 now is barely off its recent high and should have declined with the Dollar Index's 11 rise with a current price of about 11% lower at near $25. The current $28 level has not allowed buying on the dip.
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Post by jeffolie on Nov 24, 2010 15:46:11 GMT -6
Some have commented on metals ETFs implying they may not physically have possession of all the metals. I advocate physically holding metals, but I am not a trader. Here is another warning about metals ETFs: ====================================================== "...another 1,661,992 troy ounces of silver was added on Tuesday. The SLV ETF now sits with 350.2 million ounces of silver. I just hope it's all there as stated. As you know, dear reader, I don't own [and would never own] either of these ETFs. The only reason I see red flags flying is that the custodians of these two ETFs, JPM and HSBC, are the two biggest silver and gold shorts on the Comex... and both have 25 law suits filed against them for manipulating the silver price. I want nothing to do with them. There are lots of other ways to own the physical metal without having these two organizations involved...." www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/edition/slv-adds-another-1661992-troy-ounces-silver
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Post by graybeard on Nov 25, 2010 5:27:23 GMT -6
The SLV ETF in my IRA has done quite well, thank you. I just have to figure out when to dump it, withdraw and pay the taxes, and buy the real thing with the leftovers after taxes.
GB
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Nov 26, 2010 11:41:57 GMT -6
Silver is now up over 70% in the last 9 months. In comparison, Gold is up "only" a little over 20%. Everything else being equal, anybody holding silver has gotten a lot richer over the last 9 months. Attachments:
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Post by jeffolie on Nov 26, 2010 11:56:48 GMT -6
Silver and gold often move the opposite, inverse to the Dollar Index...but not always.
Silver is not bought by Central Banks.
Silver's media buzz is better than Gold's media buzz.
The bullion media often mentions and notes the apparent problems with physical Silver. Sceptics warn that Silver ETFs may be liars and some are tools of bullion banks that are being sued.
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Dec 1, 2010 1:46:29 GMT -6
The Silver tear has continued. Over the last 2 days the price has risen +4.5% Attachments:
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Post by graybeard on Dec 1, 2010 6:05:09 GMT -6
Ok, at what trend do I get out of my SLV etf?
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Post by jeffolie on Dec 1, 2010 16:26:55 GMT -6
Interesting Melt Values for Old Silver Coins Listed at Coinflation With silver at over $28 per ounce the 1964 silver dimes have a melt value of just over $2. The 1964 silver quarters are a little over $5. Silver half dollars have a melt value just over $10, while the 1935 Peace Dollars break the trend and have a melt value of nearly $22 1942-1945 Nickel ** $0.05 $1.5990 3198.03% 1916-1945 Mercury Dime $0.10 $2.0558 2055.87% 1946-1964 Roosevelt Dime $0.10 $2.0558 2055.87% 1916-1930 Standing Liberty Quarter $0.25 $5.1396 2055.87% 1932-1964 Washington Quarter $0.25 $5.1396 2055.87% 1916-1947 Half Dollar $0.50 $10.2793 2055.87% 1948-1963 Franklin Half Dollar $0.50 $10.2793 2055.87% 1964 Kennedy Half Dollar $0.50 $10.2793 2055.87% 1965-1970 Half Dollar (40% silver) $0.50 $4.2031 840.62% 1878-1921 Morgan Dollar $1.00 $21.9814 2198.14% 1921-1935 Peace Dollar $1.00 $21.9814 2198.14% 1971-1976 Eisenhower Dollar (40% silver) *** $1.00 $8.9873 898.73% www.coinflation.com/
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Post by jeffolie on Dec 6, 2010 10:35:11 GMT -6
Silver hits 30-year high above $30 an ounce
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Post by jeffolie on Dec 16, 2010 17:50:46 GMT -6
I often advocate physcially holding your own metals. Here is another trash talk piece that may lead you to physcially holding your own metals. hat tip to Bart: Long but very good article on GDL and SLV: GLD and SLV www.nowandfutures.com/blog/ ======================================================== "....Investors deserve a clear picture of what they are buying so they can make informed decisions about whether they want to buy and at what price. We believe the disclosures regarding GLD and SLV are inadequate. Given the conflicts of interest of the Custodian banks and the general state of standards and ethics within the bullion banking community, we believe the market discounts of GLD and SLV to silver and gold melt value are more than warranted. At best, GLD and SLV are simply a bank deposit priced in spot prices without the benefit of government deposit insurance. At worst, GLD and SLV are vehicles by which investors provide the banking community with the resources to control and manipulate the precious metals market without adequate compensation. solari.com/articles/Precious_Metals_Puzzle_Palace/#III ============================================================ "...no metals were actually bought..." Laguna Niguel man accused of running precious metals scam Federal regulators sue the operator of two investing businesses, alleging he diverted millions of dollars in clients' funds. "...At least 80 people paid about $5.5 million to two Irvine companies headed by Ryan A. Nassbridges for gold and silver coins and bars and other precious metals...in many cases no metals were actually bought...defendants American Bullion Exchange and American Bullion Exchange ABEX Corp. as defendants as well as Nassbridges...." www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-cftc-american-bullion-20101216,0,1981065.story
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Post by jeffolie on Jul 26, 2012 17:53:38 GMT -6
I often advocate physcially holding your own metals. Here is another trash talk piece that may lead you to physcially holding your own metals. hat tip to Bart: Long but very good article on GDL and SLV: GLD and SLV www.nowandfutures.com/blog/ ======================================================== "....Investors deserve a clear picture of what they are buying so they can make informed decisions about whether they want to buy and at what price. We believe the disclosures regarding GLD and SLV are inadequate. Given the conflicts of interest of the Custodian banks and the general state of standards and ethics within the bullion banking community, we believe the market discounts of GLD and SLV to silver and gold melt value are more than warranted. At best, GLD and SLV are simply a bank deposit priced in spot prices without the benefit of government deposit insurance. At worst, GLD and SLV are vehicles by which investors provide the banking community with the resources to control and manipulate the precious metals market without adequate compensation. solari.com/articles/Precious_Metals_Puzzle_Palace/#III ============================================================ "...no metals were actually bought..." Laguna Niguel man accused of running precious metals scam Federal regulators sue the operator of two investing businesses, alleging he diverted millions of dollars in clients' funds. "...At least 80 people paid about $5.5 million to two Irvine companies headed by Ryan A. Nassbridges for gold and silver coins and bars and other precious metals...in many cases no metals were actually bought...defendants American Bullion Exchange and American Bullion Exchange ABEX Corp. as defendants as well as Nassbridges...." www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-cftc-american-bullion-20101216,0,1981065.story Unfortunately, a more determined and knowledgeable robber might beat you until you revealed the location of your metals along with a valid method to access your remotely kept metals. One might unfortunately be extorted with the threat to harm your loved ones unless one reveals the location of your metals along with a valid method to access your remotely kept metals. I am convinced that keeping your metals secret remains highly important to the safety of oneself and one's loved ones. Relying on safe keeping is insufficient no matter how well the metals are physically protected. Remote safe keeping creates an oversight problem. Hoping the remote location will not be accessed by bad doers without your knowledge becomes an issue. Depending on 'allocated' safe keeping by a company of good reputation would prove inadequate to insider theft at the company storing it or even losing ones ownership at the company is possible if derivative have been created using your gold as collateral without your consent because the law on derivatives give the derivatives owner higher legal title ... bet you did not know that. Just hiring an attorney to fight for your metals in a legal dispute will be expensive. In bankruptcy, one might find that the company 'comingled' your metals such that your ownership was compromised...again an attorney would bleed you dry fighting that one.
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Post by jeffolie on Aug 1, 2012 10:34:05 GMT -6
No metals: fraud at Atlantic Bullion & Coin, Inc. since "at least 2001 through February 29, 2012."http://www.mineweb.co.za/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page32?oid=156210&sn=Detail&pid=102055 Story after story bears warning to take possession of your own metals if you are not a trader, if you intend to wait for the long term. Secrecy ... no public bragging ... no water cooler stories remains important for your personal safety. ========================= Esteemed son of the south pleads guilty in $90.1m silver Ponzi scheme A former Anderson County, South Carolina councilman and past national commander of the Sons of Confederate Veterans entered a guilty plea in U.S. District Court in connection with a Ponzi scheme in which an estimated 945 investors in 16 states were duped into investing a total of $90.1 million in alleged silver contracts. In a complaint filed in the U.S. District Court in South Carolina, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said Ronnie Gene Wilson, 64, of Easley operated a Ponzi scheme through his company Atlantic Bullion & Coin, Inc. since "at least 2001 through February 29, 2012." "As part of their Ponzi scheme, Wilson and AB&C....fraudulently offered contracts of sale of silver bullion, a commodity in interstate commerce," said the CFTC. "Through their Ponzi scheme, defendants obtained at least $90.1 million, from at least 945 investors, for the purchase of silver." Despite the offers of sale, defendants failed to purchase any silver at all with the $11.53 million they collected from the AB&C Investors. Instead, defendants misappropriated it," the CFTC asserted. "By late 2011, as their Ponzi scheme began to unravel, defendants attempted to conceal their fraud by issuing false and/or fraudulent financial statements." Well, where is your silver "... Under a plea agreement, Wilson has said he will make full restitution although he lost nearly $60 million of clients' money. The receiver in the case says Wilson owns silver bars, shotguns and an 80-acre farm. A website and telephone number has been established to develop a list of investors who would share the profits if a judge orders that Wilson's assets be liquidated. Meanwhile, the CFTC civil enforcement action is still underway. Wilson is free on $1 million bond pending sentencing. The maximum penalty he faces is 20 years in prison and a $250,000 fine for each of the two counts of mail fraud. www.mineweb.co.za/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page32?oid=156210&sn=Detail&pid=102055
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