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Post by jeffolie on Jan 2, 2012 17:18:42 GMT -6
Make your predictions for 2012.
Here are mine:
jeffolie predicts...Throw the bastards out of office gained ground against Establishment politicians in 2010, 2011 and will gain ground in 2012 .
jeffolie predicts...This repeats my old assertions made prior to Obama winning the 2008 primaries that Obama and the Democrats will lose enough power to fail after the 2010 elections to get anything done, continued political and economic gridlock.
jeffolie predicts...2010 food crisis that I made in 2008 will continues in 2012 for selective commodities such as grains with special attention to the seasonal trends for midyear tops from continuing weather issues.
jeffolie predicts...stock market gains to mid year which is the traditional seasonal high hence the long standing cliche of 'sell in May and go away' with Ben of the Fed providing stimulus.
jeffolie predicts...housing prices will continue going down because trends to rent continue. jeffolie predicts…SCREWFLATION: everything the ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down in value. Taxes, fees, charges, special assessment districts from State, Local, etc governments will rise while services from them will decrease. Energy expenses for homes, cars, electricity will rise compounded by additional taxes and fees. Food prices will rise. Health care/insurance expenses will rise; College Tuition will rise; Mortgage/house payments will rise because interest rates will rise seasonally; Rents will rise. The ‘average American family’ wealth will decline. The ‘average American family’ wealth will decline for those still owning their homes because house prices will continue to decline. Food Stamp use will make new records. I prefer screwflation over stagflation because of the regressive impact on middle and lower class families' standard of living and that they have no investments that rise with inflation or money printing and in fact usually have their wealth tied up in declining or negative home equity while the upper 20% of earners usually have investments that will rise in 2012 outside of their home equity.
jeffolie predicts… EUROPEAN CRISIS: the financial crisis will increase ‘austerity’ as retirement ages extend, services are privatized from higher paying government salaries to lower paying private jobs, benefits reduced. Bailouts of European banks will shift low valued debt from the banks to the IMF, FED, ECB, China via ‘swaps’, bond sales, loans, etc. Average European families will have their version of screwflation because their incomes will decline and expenses increase from governments privatizing. jeffolie predicts…US STATES, CITIES, LOCAL AGENCIES CRISIS: major layoffs by the end of 2012, bills will not be paid, some bonds will default. jeffolie predicts…INTEREST RATES: higher through summer.
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Post by graybeard on Jan 2, 2012 22:00:45 GMT -6
Robert Reich predicts Obama/Hilary for 2012.
If she won't take the job, I predict Jennifer Granholm, ex-gov of Mich.
rdr
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Post by blueneck on Jan 4, 2012 12:55:04 GMT -6
Granholm was born Canadian - would that disqualify her from a VP spot?
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Jan 4, 2012 23:53:40 GMT -6
Granholm was born Canadian - would that disqualify her from a VP spot? Yes. As it should. Arnold Schwarzenegger was disqualified on the same grounds.
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Post by graybeard on Jan 5, 2012 7:19:42 GMT -6
Didn't know/remember that about her. Therefore, I predict she will not be VP. We should have carried through with "54-40 or Fight." GB
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Post by jeffolie on Jan 5, 2012 15:49:56 GMT -6
I continue to predict 2012 will be political and economic deadlock.
2013 honeymoon, 2014+ impact
Immediately ahead for 2013 the planned January 'build in' budget cuts cascade from the 2012 end of year 'lame duck' Congress.
I expect major changes to domestic politics and the domestic economy to take 1st steps in 2013 with the honeymoon period normally happening for the more powerful and in control Republicans. But, the impact of the 2013 enactments most likely will happen in 2014 and/or beyond.
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Post by jeffolie on Jan 14, 2012 11:42:55 GMT -6
Mid year selective commodities peak & $5 gas ... My jeffolie 2012 predictions include a seasonal peak for certain commodities which most likely will twist the trend in interest rates towards the upper range of its trend channel. The below piece features a $5 gas prediction, you may or may not agree; however, Memorial day or that period of time of late May and into June commonly has the highest gasoline prices for a few reasons including the change over from the formula of gasoline to a lower polluding 'summer' formulation plus road trip vacations and vacations using airlines. =++++++++++++++++++++ Gas Outlook: ‘Most Painful Year At Pump Ever’ January 13, 2012 "... CHICAGO (CBS) — Gasoline prices could approach $5 a gallon by Memorial Day and stay a record levels for much of the summer, according to a forecast by GasBuddy.com. Gas prices always spike in the summer, ... chicago.cbslocal.com/2012/01/13/gas-outlook-most-painful-year-at-pump-ever/
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Post by jeffolie on Mar 15, 2012 16:14:53 GMT -6
Pension dooms Cities+ ... 10 years no gains from stocks or real estate investments, CALPERS barely adjusts to reality 30 year timeframe ... pensions and actuarial forecasts look long term, so the last 10 years of no capital gains have been mostly ignored ... however, I look to Japan's now 23 years of no gains plus big loses and question sceptically if the mere close to nothing .25% adjustment means doom or bankruptcy for California's extremely big pensions Even this mere close to nothing .25% adjustment means probable doom for some on the breaking point California governments such as the City of Stockton's much publicized bankruptcy discussions. Public Pensions mere close to nothing .25% adjustment means my jeffolie prediction of 2012 plays out as correct: " .…US STATES, CITIES, LOCAL AGENCIES CRISIS: major layoffs by the end of 2012, bills will not be paid, some bonds will default. ..." ============================== CALPERS fund to ask more SACRAMENTO - The nation's largest public pension fund lowered its forecast Wednesday for investment returns and asked the state of California, school districts and local governments to increase contributions - a move that could siphon more money from basic services. The California Public Employees' Retirement System voted to lower its projected annual return from 7.75 percent to 7.5 percent. The change will cost the state an extra $303million a year, with about $167 million coming from the general fund. It also bumps the overall annual state contribution to CalPERS to $3.8 billion, or about 4percent of the overall general fund budget for the coming fiscal year. The action by the CalPERS board marked the first time in a decade it has lowered its projected return. The fund, which serves 1.6million California government workers, retirees and their families, has an unfunded liability of at least $85 billion. Representatives of local agencies said they were concerned the board's action will further hurt their budgets at a time when many are facing deficits. Sacramento Metropolitan Fire District Chief Kurt Henke acknowledged that the investment rate eventually will need to be lowered even further but warned the board before the vote that "you have a lot of local governments on the edge." "Implementing this in one fell swoop would be devastating for us," he told board members before their vote. "I don't see the bottom in Sacramento." In taking its action, the board directed its staff to examine phasing in the rate adjustment over two years as a way to lessen the immediate budget impact on local governments. Henke estimated the reduction would cost his district $2.5 million and would affect service. He said employees previously agreed to $28 million in long-term contract concessions and the district has closed six stations. The CalPERS action came amid increasing scrutiny of the cost of providing for government retirees, who receive the types of defined-benefit pensions that are unavailable in the vast majority of the private sector. Those covered by CalPERS are guaranteed a certain monthly benefit for life, no matter how well or how poorly the fund's investments perform. Many state and local government employees can retire in their 50s and receive full family health care in retirement that is separate from Medicare. Supporters of pension reforms said CalPERS made a modest change by lowering the discount rate and should have done even more. They noted that the federal government assumes its pension fund will have a 6.2 percent rate of return, and most private employers that still have pension plans use a rate of 5 percent. "They've been paying too little for the (retirement) benefit value and finally it's caught up to them," said Marcia Fritz, president of the California Foundation for Fiscal Responsibility. Fritz said taxpayers will not want to see public services reduced to pay for pensions and will demand public workers make concessions through wages or health benefits. "I can't see us laying off more teachers or taking more cops off streets," she said. Under the CalPERS action, school districts would have to chip in another $137 million to cover the pension costs for non-teaching personnel. Cities, counties and local agencies will see an increase in contributions by 1-2 percent for civil workers and 2-3 percent for public safety workers starting in fiscal year 2013-14. The action was taken on a voice vote, so there is no official tally. Just one board member, J.J. Jelincic, said he was opposed, arguing that he believes inflation will rise and he did not want governments to pay more. CalPERS' chief actuary previously recommended lowering the assumed annual investment return from 7.75 percent to 7.25 percent, citing the risk to taxpayers in the future. But the fund's pension and health benefits committee on Tuesday voted 6-2 to ignore the advice and went with the higher estimate of returns. Several cities and districts had written the board when its investment committee was considering the larger reduction - a move that would have required even greater contributions from the state general fund and local governments. Peter Ng, employee benefits director in Santa Clara County, home of Silicon Valley, wrote a letter warning that it would have cost the county an additional $67.5 million starting in fiscal year 2013-14. "This additional cost to the county will undoubtedly result in more program and position cuts that will further reduce critical services to the community," Ng wrote. In many cities and counties, the rising costs of public employee pensions and retiree health care have forced cuts to basic services. CalPERS staff had urged the board to take some action, warning that deferring tough decisions now would only push costs to future taxpayers. The $233 billion fund has earned an average return of 8.4 percent annually over the past two decades, but the economy's gyrations over the past few years have pressured pension funds to take more precautions. The fund recorded a 20.9 percent increase in the fiscal year that ended June 30, 2011, but had an increase of just 1.1 percent for the 2011 calendar year. With California facing a $9.2 billion budget deficit, Gov. Jerry Brown, a Democrat, has proposed reducing retirement benefits for new and current public workers. He is calling for increasing the retirement age and having local and state workers pay more toward their retirement and health care. www.presstelegram.com/news/ci_20176087/calpers-fund-ask-more====================================== Jon Coupal: Gov. Jerry Brown giving only lip service to substantial pension reform By Jon Coupal In his State of the State address, Gov. Jerry Brown acknowledged the dire need for pension reform in California. But the immediate question on the minds of political insiders was twofold: First, whether the governor would support substantive reform (as opposed to just window dressing) and, second, how much, if any, political capital he would expend to see his plan enacted into law. On the first point, Brown surprised us by proposing a fairly detailed 12-point plan that even his most harsh critics had to concede was substantive. But, regrettably, as HJTA predicted, the answer to the second question of how much effort he would use to see the plan to fruition was, simply, not much. That Brown would not push pension reform is really not all that surprising. First, labor brought him to the governor's office and he is on a short leash. Second, the Democrat-dominated Legislature isn't about to do anything that hurts the primary source of their political power and campaign funds. But it is one thing to say that you are for pension reform and not really mean it and entirely another thing to actively sabotage meaningful pension reform in those places where it is actually happening -- at the local level. In February, the California Public Employee Relations Board (PERB) ruled that a pension reform measure that is to appear on the June ballot in San Diego is an unfair labor practice. More than 115,000 voters signed petitions to qualify an initiative, which would provide a private sector style 401(k) plan to new employees. Government employee union bosses, objecting to any change to the guaranteed benefit system that has nearly bankrupted the city, sent out "goon squads" to try to "influence" petition signers, but voters refused to be intimidated. Failing to block reform from going on the ballot, the unions sought the help of the friendly PERB that is stacked with Brown appointees. Their argument, with which the board agreed, is that because the ballot measure is supported by San Diego Mayor Jerry Sanders and City Council members Kevin Faulconer and Carl DeMaio, the measure is de facto city sponsored, and therefore San Diego is violating the requirement that officials meet and confer -- negotiate with the unions -- prior to any changes to the pension system. Fortunately, the unions' move to prevent the pension reform initiative from going before the voters was rejected by Judge William Dato, who said there is no established case law that would allow him to block the measure from going to the ballot based on the PERB's findings. (Kudos to City Attorney Jan Goldsmith who vigorously fought the union effort). The upshot is that San Diego voters will indeed have the opportunity to vote on pension reform this June, assuming that any further legal challenges by the unions and Brown's handpicked PERB members get the judicial rebuff they so richly deserve. But, hypothetically, what if the governor's cronies on PERB succeeded in their legal challenge so that Sanders and the City Council members were found to be officially representing the city rather than themselves as private citizens? Wouldn't this also mean that Brown is actually representing the state of California, rather than himself, as an advocate for his tax increase initiative? After all, not only is he listed as the official "proponent" of his plan to increase both the income and sales tax, he readily admits that he has been working the phones to raise money for the proposal and also to dissuade competing measures from appearing on the ballot. The constitution, as amended by Proposition 13, is clear. For the state to raise taxes, it must receive approval from two-thirds of each house of the Legislature. Even to place the measure on the ballot for voter approval requires a two-thirds vote. But Brown is totally bypassing the Legislature and, therefore, by the logic of the PERB members that he appointed, isn't he in violation of the law? The Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association has never maintained that an elected official gives up his or her right to endorse or support a ballot measure by virtue of holding office. However, if the governor's appointees persist in maintaining that a legitimate local ballot measure, qualified through the efforts of more than 100,000 voters, is null and void because it is also supported by local officials, we might have to rethink our position. In the end, Brown can do what he wants, as can the local officials in San Diego and other municipalities where officials are actually demonstrating leadership to address a serious issue. But the actions of his PERB members make it abundantly clear: Jerry is a labor guy and he, like the Democrats in the legislature, will do nothing to anger or upset their most valued constituency. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jon Coupal is president of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association. Contact him through the organization's website, www.hjta.org. www.presstelegram.com/opinions/ci....giving-only-lip==================================== Make your predictions for 2012. Here are mine: jeffolie predicts...Throw the bastards out of office gained ground against Establishment politicians in 2010, 2011 and will gain ground in 2012 . jeffolie predicts...This repeats my old assertions made prior to Obama winning the 2008 primaries that Obama and the Democrats will lose enough power to fail after the 2010 elections to get anything done, continued political and economic gridlock. jeffolie predicts...2010 food crisis that I made in 2008 will continues in 2012 for selective commodities such as grains with special attention to the seasonal trends for midyear tops from continuing weather issues. jeffolie predicts...stock market gains to mid year which is the traditional seasonal high hence the long standing cliche of 'sell in May and go away' with Ben of the Fed providing stimulus. jeffolie predicts...housing prices will continue going down because trends to rent continue. jeffolie predicts…SCREWFLATION: everything the ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down in value. Taxes, fees, charges, special assessment districts from State, Local, etc governments will rise while services from them will decrease. Energy expenses for homes, cars, electricity will rise compounded by additional taxes and fees. Food prices will rise. Health care/insurance expenses will rise; College Tuition will rise; Mortgage/house payments will rise because interest rates will rise seasonally; Rents will rise. The ‘average American family’ wealth will decline. The ‘average American family’ wealth will decline for those still owning their homes because house prices will continue to decline. Food Stamp use will make new records. I prefer screwflation over stagflation because of the regressive impact on middle and lower class families' standard of living and that they have no investments that rise with inflation or money printing and in fact usually have their wealth tied up in declining or negative home equity while the upper 20% of earners usually have investments that will rise in 2012 outside of their home equity. jeffolie predicts… EUROPEAN CRISIS: the financial crisis will increase ‘austerity’ as retirement ages extend, services are privatized from higher paying government salaries to lower paying private jobs, benefits reduced. Bailouts of European banks will shift low valued debt from the banks to the IMF, FED, ECB, China via ‘swaps’, bond sales, loans, etc. Average European families will have their version of screwflation because their incomes will decline and expenses increase from governments privatizing. jeffolie predicts…US STATES, CITIES, LOCAL AGENCIES CRISIS: major layoffs by the end of 2012, bills will not be paid, some bonds will default. jeffolie predicts…INTEREST RATES: higher through summer. Read more: unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/ind....2#ixzz1pE3ZpMKP Read more: unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=pensionssocialsecurity&action=display&thread=10434#ixzz1pE5lTC8Y
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Post by jeffolie on Mar 22, 2012 16:05:41 GMT -6
European Recession started, crisis coming [from: jeffolie 2012 Jan1st predicts]… EUROPEAN CRISIS: the financial crisis will increase ‘austerity’ as retirement ages extend, services are privatized from higher paying government salaries to lower paying private jobs, benefits reduced. Bailouts of European banks will shift low valued debt from the banks to the IMF, FED, ECB, China via ‘swaps’, bond sales, loans, etc. Average European families will have their version of screwflation because their incomes will decline and expenses increase from governments privatizing. Read more: unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/ind....2#ixzz1psyeWyJV===================== " ... Euro-area services and manufacturing output contracted more than economists forecast in March, adding to signs the economy has slipped into recession. ... " Euro-Region Recession A gauge of euro-region manufacturing fell to 47.7 in March from 49 in February, Markit said. A measure of services declined to 48.7 from 48.8. Companies cut employment levels for the third month in a row, while a gauge of new business decreased for an eighth month, today’s report showed. Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, said in today’s statement that the euro-region economy probably continued to shrink in the first quarter. “The downturn is only very mild at the moment,” he said. “However, firms are clearly focusing on cost reduction, with employment falling at the fastest rate for two years and inflows and business continued to deteriorate, reflecting weak demand across the region.” www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-22....timated-1-.html Read more: unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=globalization&thread=10473&page=1#ixzz1psz8ewPN
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Post by jeffolie on Apr 6, 2012 11:02:36 GMT -6
Consistent with my jeffolie 2012 and 2011 Crisis predictions, governments in America continue to layoff despite record low interest rates that reduce governments' carrying cost for debts. " ... Employment by local governments, adjusted for seasonal hiring swings, dropped by 3,000 in March to 14.1 million, the lowest since February 2006, the U.S. Labor Department reported today. State payrolls helped offset the loss, showing a third straight month of gains, rising 2,000 to 5.1 million. It’s the longest streak of job increases at that level since 2008. ..." I predict this focusing on the size of government resulting in a jobs in government Crisis will continue until beyond 2014 and most likely to 2016 as well or until voters reverse their Independents stance of disgust for government under either Democrats or Republicans. =========================================== U.S. Local Governments Cut Payrolls to Lowest Level Since 2006 Apr 6, 2012 U.S. local-government payrolls fell to the lowest level in more than six years in a sign that municipalities still face fiscal strains almost three years after the end of the recession. Employment by local governments, adjusted for seasonal hiring swings, dropped by 3,000 in March to 14.1 million, the lowest since February 2006, the U.S. Labor Department reported today. State payrolls helped offset the loss, showing a third straight month of gains, rising 2,000 to 5.1 million. It’s the longest streak of job increases at that level since 2008. April 6 (Bloomberg) -- John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC, talks about the March U.S. jobs report, Federal Reserve policy and outlook for the U.S. economy. Employers added 120,000 jobs, fewer than forecast, and unemployment fell to 8.2 percent, the lowest since January 2009, from 8.3 percent, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Silvia speaks with Betty Liu on Bloomberg Television's "Jobs in Focus" special report. Peter Cook, Michael McKee and Matthew Dowd also speak. (Source: Bloomberg) Municipalities, which depend largely on property taxes, are probably cutting jobs because the housing market is still rebounding and homeowners are pressing for lower assessments, said Alan Schankel, a managing director at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia. State governments, which depend more on income and sales taxes, have also cut local aid to balance budgets in the wake of the recession that ended in June 2009. “It’s kind of a double-whammy,” Schankel said in a telephone interview today. “There’s still stress at the local level. State and local-government tax collections grew at the slowest pace in a year in the final quarter of 2011, the U.S. Census Bureau said last month. Revenue rose 2.1 percent from a year earlier to $387.2 billion. While it was the ninth straight advance, it was the smallest jump since the end of 2010. Property taxes rose 0.2 percent from a year before. States and local governments have cut about 640,000 jobs combined since public-sector employment peaked in 2008 www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-06/u-s-local-governments-cut-payrolls-to-lowest-level-since-2006.html======================================== jeffolie predicts…US STATES, CITIES, LOCAL AGENCIES CRISIS: major layoffs by the end of 2012, bills will not be paid, some bonds will default. Read more: unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=10102#ixzz1rHQGGqPu
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Post by jeffolie on Apr 6, 2012 11:24:50 GMT -6
In the past, governments functioned in America as an employer of last resort to remove surplus jobless from the depths of economic downturns with block grants to state and local government which could absorb the jobless in short term public works projects and even neglected long term maintenance needs. Now, not only are short term Redevelopment projects not being funded with broader deficit funding from the larger governments such as the states or federal government ... now public employees layoffs add to the rolls of workers laidoff. This reversal rarely happens in recessions but does commonly happen in depressions. Thus, this feature adds to my view that America remains in a 'regular depression'. Certainly, the broader U7 presented by Bart (thank you) taoeconomics.com/ss/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=4741&p=36942#p36942 as well as in John Williams Shadowstats jobless meaure taoeconomics.com/ss/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=4741&p=36942#p36942 shows the level of discouraged workers remains extremely high at above 21%. In the Great Depression, unemployment often bounced around between 15% to as high as 30%. Today's charts puts America at Depression level far above recession levels.
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Post by jeffolie on Apr 14, 2012 12:03:52 GMT -6
Longer term the fundamental pensions problem remains underfunding by STATES, CITIES, LOCAL AGENCIES which refuse to increase taxes to meet their promise contributions: "... Muni Watch: April 10 – Financial Times (Hal Weitzman and Nicole Bullock): “US states are increasingly being blocked from changing public employees’ retirement benefits as the fight over shoring up chronically underfunded public pension systems moves from state legislatures to the courts. While some states have successfully altered terms for future employees, plans to force all current public workers to contribute more to state pensions have been ruled unconstitutional in Florida, Arizona and New Hampshire in recent weeks, a significant victory for public sector employee unions. Other states are expected to face similar legal battles as they plan to close large holes in their public pension funds by redrawing benefits. US state and local pensions could face a shortfall of as much as $4.4tn, up from $3.1tn in 2009, according to some estimates." April 10 – Bloomberg (Josh Barro): “Rod Blagojevich is in prison. But the worst things the former governor did to Illinois weren’t even illegal. This month, the Teachers’ Retirement System of the State of Illinois made a dire announcement to its members. TRS, which covers most public-school teachers in Illinois outside Chicago and has more than 360,000 members, said the following: ‘If the General Assembly does not continue to provide all of the funding called for in state law, calculations done by TRS actuaries show that the System could become insolvent as soon as 2030. Preventing insolvency may include significant changes for TRS -- new revenues must be generated and if they are not benefits may have to be reduced.’” April 9 – Bloomberg (Amanda J. Crawford): “Las Vegas’s credit outlook was lowered to negative from stable on $561.2 million of debt by Fitch Ratings, which cited budget deficits and the lingering housing crisis.” California Watch: April 10 – Financial Times (Dan McCrum): “California must increase contributions to teachers’ pensions by more than half to close a $64.5bn funding hole in the country’s second largest public retirement system, according to the actuarial valuation to be presented to the board of Calstrs this week. The $144bn of assets managed by the California State Teachers’ Retirement System covered only 69% of future liabilities at the end of June 2011, a drop of 2 percentage points from the year before. In a sign of the problems faced by many public pension plans, the hole is too large to be covered by better investment performance.” April 9 – Bloomberg (James Nash): “The California State Teachers’ Retirement System, the second-biggest U.S. public pension, said the gap between its assets and projected obligations rose $8.5 billion as investment gains failed to cover earlier losses. The unfunded liability climbed 13% to $64.5 billion as of June 30… The system had about 69% of assets needed to cover promises to current and future retirees at the end of fiscal 2011, down from about 71% a year earlier.” prudentbear.com/index.php/credit ... t_id=10651
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Post by jeffolie on Apr 21, 2012 11:34:00 GMT -6
Food Stamps+70% in 4 yrs: reg. depression, more to come Make your predictions for 2012. Here are mine: jeffolie predicts...Throw the bastards out of office gained ground against Establishment politicians in 2010, 2011 and will gain ground in 2012 . jeffolie predicts...This repeats my old assertions made prior to Obama winning the 2008 primaries that Obama and the Democrats will lose enough power to fail after the 2010 elections to get anything done, continued political and economic gridlock. jeffolie predicts...2010 food crisis that I made in 2008 will continues in 2012 for selective commodities such as grains with special attention to the seasonal trends for midyear tops from continuing weather issues. jeffolie predicts...stock market gains to mid year which is the traditional seasonal high hence the long standing cliche of 'sell in May and go away' with Ben of the Fed providing stimulus. jeffolie predicts...housing prices will continue going down because trends to rent continue. jeffolie predicts…SCREWFLATION: everything the ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down in value. Taxes, fees, charges, special assessment districts from State, Local, etc governments will rise while services from them will decrease. Energy expenses for homes, cars, electricity will rise compounded by additional taxes and fees. Food prices will rise. Health care/insurance expenses will rise; College Tuition will rise; Mortgage/house payments will rise because interest rates will rise seasonally; Rents will rise. The ‘average American family’ wealth will decline. The ‘average American family’ wealth will decline for those still owning their homes because house prices will continue to decline. Food Stamp use will make new records. I prefer screwflation over stagflation because of the regressive impact on middle and lower class families' standard of living and that they have no investments that rise with inflation or money printing and in fact usually have their wealth tied up in declining or negative home equity while the upper 20% of earners usually have investments that will rise in 2012 outside of their home equity. jeffolie predicts… EUROPEAN CRISIS: the financial crisis will increase ‘austerity’ as retirement ages extend, services are privatized from higher paying government salaries to lower paying private jobs, benefits reduced. Bailouts of European banks will shift low valued debt from the banks to the IMF, FED, ECB, China via ‘swaps’, bond sales, loans, etc. Average European families will have their version of screwflation because their incomes will decline and expenses increase from governments privatizing. jeffolie predicts…US STATES, CITIES, LOCAL AGENCIES CRISIS: major layoffs by the end of 2012, bills will not be paid, some bonds will default. jeffolie predicts…INTEREST RATES: higher through summer. Food The impact of what I call a 'regular depression' has resulted in a 70% increase in Food Stamp, SNAP giving free food to American in just over 4 years. My 2012 predictions include items regarding Food: prices, Food Stamps, lowered standard of living implies lower quality food selections. This year hits average Americans with an additional layer of screwflation as other expenses rise leaving many families turning to free food resources such as charities' food pantries, stealing or shop lifting food items, government programs such as general relief or welfare and the biggest name in food known historically as Food Stamps or now SNAP. My jeffolie predictions for average Americans remains doom long term while merely a little worse this year than in 2011. The below piece predicts an economic recovery starting in 2014 whereas I differ in predicting an even deeper political and economic American collapse starting in 2014 and/or beyond when I predict the Dollar to decline as confidence in our American currency come into question after the Eurozone collapses and reforms in 2013 and/or beyond. The below piece predicts ever growing average Americans seeking free food in 2012, 2013 and part if not most of 2014. ===================================== April 19, 2012 Food Stamp Rolls to Grow Through 2014, CBO Says. The Congressional Budget Office said Thursday that 45 million people in 2011 received Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits, a 70% increase from 2007. It said the number of people receiving the benefits, commonly known as food stamps, would continue growing until 2014. Click for larger CBO infographic.Spending for the program, not including administrative costs, rose to $72 billion in 2011, up from $30 billion four years earlier. The CBO projected that one in seven U.S. residents received food stamps last year. In a report, the CBO said roughly two-thirds of jump in spending was tied to an increase in the number of people participating in the program, which provides access to food for the poor, elderly, and disabled. It said another 20% “of the growth in spending can be attributed to temporarily higher benefit amounts enacted in the” 2009 stimulus law. CBO said the number of people receiving benefits is expected to fall after 2014 because the economy will be improving. “Nevertheless, the number of people receiving SNAP benefits will remain high by historical standards,” the agency said. It estimated that 34 million people, or 1 in 10 U.S. residents, would receive SNAP benefits in 2022 “and SNAP expenditures, at about $73 billion, will be among the highest of all non-health-related federal support programs for low-income households.” blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/04/19/food-stamp-rolls-to-grow-through-2014-cbo-says/?mod=e2tw
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Post by jeffolie on Apr 29, 2012 10:02:54 GMT -6
Spain's misery coming to America: conservatives to bring added misery to average Americans ... upper 20% of incomes/wealth will gain, lower 80% of incomes/wealth will pay and lose Spain's hugely elected conservative new rulers impose "screwflation" with higher taxes for less health & education services confirming my jeffolie 2012 prediction of Jan 1st 2012: "... jeffolie predicts… EUROPEAN CRISIS: the financial crisis will increase ‘austerity’ as retirement ages extend, services are privatized from higher paying government salaries to lower paying private jobs, benefits reduced. Bailouts of European banks will shift low valued debt from the banks to the IMF, FED, ECB, China via ‘swaps’, bond sales, loans, etc. Average European families will have their version of screwflation because their incomes will decline and expenses increase from governments privatizing.American voters will do the same in Nov 2012 impose "screwflation" with higher taxes for less health & education services: jeffolie predicts... Throw the bastards out of office gained ground against Establishment politicians in 2010, 2011 and will gain ground in 2012 . jeffolie predicts...This repeats my old assertions made prior to Obama winning the 2008 primaries that Obama and the Democrats will lose enough power to fail after the 2010 elections to get anything done, continued political and economic gridlock. jeffolie predicts… SCREWFLATION: everything the ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down in value. Taxes, fees, charges, special assessment districts from State, Local, etc governments will rise while services from them will decrease. Energy expenses for homes, cars, electricity will rise compounded by additional taxes and fees. Food prices will rise. Health care/insurance expenses will rise; College Tuition will rise; Mortgage/house payments will rise because interest rates will rise seasonally; Rents will rise. The ‘average American family’ wealth will decline. The ‘average American family’ wealth will decline for those still owning their homes because house prices will continue to decline. Food Stamp use will make new records. I prefer screwflation over stagflation because of the regressive impact on middle and lower class families' standard of living and that they have no investments that rise with inflation or money printing and in fact usually have their wealth tied up in declining or negative home equity while the upper 20% of earners usually have investments that will rise in 2012 outside of their home equity. ============================= Tens of thousands protest health, education cuts across Spain MADRID (AP) – Tens of thousands of people across Spain protested Sunday against education and health care spending cuts as the country slid into its second recession in three years. Thousands protest against education and health care spending cuts in Madrid on Sunday. Unemployment is at a eurozone high of 24.4%, more than half of Spaniards under 25 years old are jobless, and Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's conservative government has introduced stinging austerity measures in its first five months in office. Speaking at a party rally, Rajoy, who on Friday announced a new set of tax hikes to come into effect next year, said he had "no alternative." He added, "Spain needs deep structural change, not makeup." Protesters in northeastern Barcelona, northern Bilbao, eastern Valencia and many other regional capitals carried banners urging Rajoy to not "mess around with health and education." Cayo Lara, lawmaker of the United Left party, said at a large gathering in Madrid that many protesters believed the government was intent on using the financial crisis as an excuse to sell off essential public services to the private sector. Ruth Colomo, a 39-year-old teacher, said the country's public education system and national health service had been built up over decades with Spaniards' tax contributions. "They are ours and I think we have the right to fight for them," she said. Mechanic Evaristo Villar, 62, said he hoped Rajoy would listen to the protesters' concerns. "The government will hear us. I don't know, though, if it will pay any attention." Rajoy said that, given the bad state the national economy was in when the previous Socialist government handed it over to him at the November general election, "the least they could do now is to shut up." www.usatoday.com/news/world/stor ... 54624058/1 =============================== Make your predictions for 2012. Here are mine: jeffolie predicts...Throw the bastards out of office gained ground against Establishment politicians in 2010, 2011 and will gain ground in 2012 . jeffolie predicts...This repeats my old assertions made prior to Obama winning the 2008 primaries that Obama and the Democrats will lose enough power to fail after the 2010 elections to get anything done, continued political and economic gridlock. jeffolie predicts...2010 food crisis that I made in 2008 will continues in 2012 for selective commodities such as grains with special attention to the seasonal trends for midyear tops from continuing weather issues. jeffolie predicts...stock market gains to mid year which is the traditional seasonal high hence the long standing cliche of 'sell in May and go away' with Ben of the Fed providing stimulus. jeffolie predicts...housing prices will continue going down because trends to rent continue. jeffolie predicts…SCREWFLATION: everything the ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down in value. Taxes, fees, charges, special assessment districts from State, Local, etc governments will rise while services from them will decrease. Energy expenses for homes, cars, electricity will rise compounded by additional taxes and fees. Food prices will rise. Health care/insurance expenses will rise; College Tuition will rise; Mortgage/house payments will rise because interest rates will rise seasonally; Rents will rise. The ‘average American family’ wealth will decline. The ‘average American family’ wealth will decline for those still owning their homes because house prices will continue to decline. Food Stamp use will make new records. I prefer screwflation over stagflation because of the regressive impact on middle and lower class families' standard of living and that they have no investments that rise with inflation or money printing and in fact usually have their wealth tied up in declining or negative home equity while the upper 20% of earners usually have investments that will rise in 2012 outside of their home equity. jeffolie predicts… EUROPEAN CRISIS: the financial crisis will increase ‘austerity’ as retirement ages extend, services are privatized from higher paying government salaries to lower paying private jobs, benefits reduced. Bailouts of European banks will shift low valued debt from the banks to the IMF, FED, ECB, China via ‘swaps’, bond sales, loans, etc. Average European families will have their version of screwflation because their incomes will decline and expenses increase from governments privatizing.jeffolie predicts…US STATES, CITIES, LOCAL AGENCIES CRISIS: major layoffs by the end of 2012, bills will not be paid, some bonds will default. jeffolie predicts…INTEREST RATES: higher through summer. Read more: unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=10102#ixzz1tRcwkUUW
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Post by jeffolie on Apr 30, 2012 10:44:55 GMT -6
POLITICS MATTER
The Lame Duck Congress may sieze their opportunity at the end of the year to "kick the can down the road" ... spread out the pain coming in January 2013 so as to NOT all happen in January and to postpone the cuts or break them up into portions to be spread during 2013 and/or beyond.
or NOT ... the cuts may all take place as written into the Nov 2011 budget compromise signed with the purpose of avoiding tax cuts before the 2012 elections as a compromise between the lying politican seeking re-election.
I have no prediction as to if the cuts will all take place as written into law.
I do predict that even more budget cuts will be enacted during the 1st 8 months of 2013 but their impact will not happen fully until the end of 2014 and/or beyond.
The politics of Spain did already follow my prediction and now officially (even with their own lies about economic numbers) slide into another Recession.
The politics of America will follow my prediction for 2013 and officially (even with America's own lies about economic numbers) then slide into another Recession.
The politics of the UK did already follow my prediction and now officially (even with their own lies about economic numbers) slide into another Recession.
This is not rocket science, it is politics that matter.
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Post by jeffolie on May 6, 2012 11:54:04 GMT -6
Soaring rents predicted...'screwflation' bites in Southern CA pushing average people into increasing the percentage of their income spent on housing while gas prices, healthcare, tariffic tickets, etc soar as well. " ...jeffolie predicts…SCREWFLATION: everything the ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down in value. Taxes, fees, charges, special assessment ...Energy expenses ... Food prices will rise. Health care/insurance expenses will rise; College Tuition will rise; ... Rents will rise. ================================== Rents soar as foreclosure victims ... young workers seek housing Few new units and tight standards for home loans add to the pressure. The average monthly U.S. rent is at an all-time high, and a 10% jump in Los Angeles County over the next two years is forecast. May 5, 2012 A nation still struggling to clear up one housing debacle has run smack into another — soaring rents. The foreclosure mess has pushed millions of former homeowners with tarnished credit into a competitive apartment market across the U.S. Add fresh demand from young workers, few new units and tight standards for home loans, and the result is rental sticker shock not seen in years. Rents are surging from New York to Los Angeles. The average monthly U.S. rent for apartments hit $1,008 in the first quarter, pushing past the all-time high set in the third quarter of 2008, according to the data firm RealFacts. USC's Lusk Center for Real Estate forecasts a 10% jump in Los Angeles County rents over the next two years. In certain markets, it is now cheaper to own a home than rent. Menachem Krinsky of Hancock Park recalls how in late 2008 every street seemed ornamented with "for rent" signs when he first moved to Los Angeles from the East Coast. Back then, his landlord was so desperate to keep him as a tenant that he slashed his rent of about $2,000 by $800 after Krinsky's first roommate bailed on the lease. These days, however, Krinsky's search for a one-bedroom apartment costing around $1,500 is shaping up to be a major headache. "I am looking for something clean and new, and unless you want to spend a fortune, it's hard," said Krinsky, a 22-year-old art director and graphic designer. Units that years ago would have languished for weeks are snapped up in days. The Santa Monica-based listing service Westsiderentals.com is operating 14 hours a day to meet demand from renters. The company has even seen a bump in interest for its "platinum" relocation service, which offers to chauffeur clients to various Southern California listings. Ellie Balderrama, who lists properties in Los Feliz, Silver Lake and Atwater Village for TheRenterGirl.com, said that as many as 20 people have showed up at some of her open houses. The ones who win arrive with completed rental applications and deposits in hand. "In L.A., people have gotten so used to how relaxed it was, they are not aware how competitive it's become," Balderrama said. "Some people have got it, and some people don't, and the ones that don't suffer." Rob Magnotta, a real estate agent, recently listed his two-bedroom Irvine condominium for rent on Craigslist for $2,300. He had six applicants within 24 hours, including one who wrote a poignant letter about losing a home to foreclosure. "It was almost too easy," said Magnotta, who chose another renter. "I know the rental market was strong. But until you are actually renting the place, I think you are surprised it is that strong." A big driver of rent increases has been demand from young workers who are striking out on their own after doubling up with family members during the worst of the economic downturn. Alaia Williams, 27, recently moved out of her mother's Inglewood apartment to be nearer to her job at a Santa Monica tech start-up. She and a roommate are splitting the $1,400 rent on a two-bedroom apartment in Palms. "We can't afford to live" closer to work, she said. People who've lost their homes to foreclosure or short sales are also feeling the sting. Damaged credit means many must pay a premium or put down a bigger deposit to secure a place. Robert Corlette pays about $1,700 a month for a two-bedroom town house in Anaheim Hills that he shares with his wife and five children. The family lost their home to foreclosure in 2009 after Corlette lost his $75,000-a-year job selling insurance. His current job, also in the insurance industry, pays about half that. "There is a lot of pressure," said Corlette, 56. "It wears you down." The crash has made owning a home more affordable than renting in some markets. An index by the research firm Green Street Advisors compares buying with renting in 79 metro markets; that index hit its most attractive point last year for buying since 1991, when the firm began tracking the data. Researchers calculate that the after-tax cost of a mortgage is only 10% higher than what it costs to rent nationally after taking into account mortgage rates, property taxes and other factors. Orange and Los Angeles counties remain more expensive for buyers than renters, though that gap has narrowed, according to the index, while owning a home in the Inland Empire is now more affordable than renting. Rising rents have converted some renters into buyers. Scott Matulis, 48, recently purchased a town home in Oak Park after enduring two consecutive years of rental increases. His mortgage, taxes and homeowner association fees now total $2,200, just $100 more than what he was paying his former landlord. "I finally just pulled the trigger and figured I'd be throwing money away on rent," Matulis said. Although rising rents may be motivating home purchases by people who are in good shape financially, those increases are walloping working class families and the poor — groups already hard hit by job losses, lost income and stagnant wages. Marisela Alfaro has lived in the same one-bedroom Santa Ana apartment for 28 years. A large bed sits in her living room, where she and her husband sleep; their teenage daughters share the bedroom. Modest religious art adorns her carefully kept home, but outside Alfaro's door the building is in disrepair, with tattered screens, broken lights and graffiti. Alfaro said the family pays $820 a month and feels lucky to have the apartment. "There are other places that cost much more," she said in Spanish. "It's been difficult because my husband works in the fields, and that's the lowest salary that there is, and if there is no rain, there is no work." Even for those with better jobs, paying rent can be difficult. Virginia Villa of Brea, a single mother of four who works as a manager at Disneyland, has doubled up with her adult daughter, who contributes $400 to the monthly household budget. Still, Villa said, about half her take-home pay goes toward rent and utilities. "I have a decent job and I would love to buy a house, but I don't think that's possible to do," Villa said. "In O.C., it's even difficult to find a substantial apartment or especially a house to rent — the rental cost for houses is really high." www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-renters-nightmare-20120506,0,7137775.story ============================ jeffolie predicts…SCREWFLATION: everything the ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down in value. Taxes, fees, charges, special assessment districts from State, Local, etc governments will rise while services from them will decrease. Energy expenses for homes, cars, electricity will rise compounded by additional taxes and fees. Food prices will rise. Health care/insurance expenses will rise; College Tuition will rise; Mortgage/house payments will rise because interest rates will rise seasonally; Rents will rise. The ‘average American family’ wealth will decline. The ‘average American family’ wealth will decline for those still owning their homes because house prices will continue to decline. Food Stamp use will make new records. I prefer screwflation over stagflation because of the regressive impact on middle and lower class families' standard of living and that they have no investments that rise with inflation or money printing and in fact usually have their wealth tied up in declining or negative home equity while the upper 20% of earners usually have investments that will rise in 2012 outside of their home equity. Read more: unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=10102#ixzz1u74VBJ39
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Post by jeffolie on May 14, 2012 12:31:40 GMT -6
My jeffolie 2012 predicts comes true: CA 5% worker layoffs, reduces state payrolls by 5%…US STATES, CITIES, LOCAL AGENCIES CRISIS: major layoffs by the end of 2012, bills will not be paid, some bonds will default. CA 5% worker layoffs, reduces state payrolls by 5% " ... Gov. Jerry Brown today released a $91-billion budget proposal that sharply cuts health and welfare spending, reduces state payrolls by 5% and freezes construction of new courthouses ... " ============================== Jerry Brown releases revised budget to close $16-billion gap May 14, 2012 Gov. Jerry Brown today released a $91-billion budget proposal that sharply cuts health and welfare spending, reduces state payrolls by 5% and freezes construction of new courthouses. Brown's revised budget reflects a steadily worsening fiscal picture for California. On Saturday, he announced via YouTube that the state's deficit had grown to $16 billion, nearly twice what he projected when he released his initial budget proposal in January. The gap grew, the budget revision states, because Brown over-estimated tax revenues by $4.3 billion and the federal government and courts blocked $1.7 billion in cuts the state wanted to make. The remainder of the difference reflects an increase in the amount of money the state is mandated to spend on education under a complex voter-approved formula. To close the wider gap, Brown has heightened the cuts he wants to make to Medi-Cal, to $1.2 billion, and maintained another $1.2 billion in welfare and child-care savings he proposed in January. He also wants to slash payments to people who care for the disabled by 7% and reduce the state payroll through a shorter workweek or wage concessions. He proposed $500 million in cuts to the state's struggling court system, including a one-year freeze on all new construction projects. The service reductions are expected to be harsher if voters in November reject Brown's proposed combination of a sales tax hike and increased levies on high earners. The governor presumes that $8.5 billion of the state's $16-billion deficit will be filled by his tax measure. If it fails, he would levy an automatic $5.5-billion cut to public schools, along with ending popular programs such as lifeguards at state beaches. The situation would be worse were it not for Facebook. The budget presumes the social media company's IPO will kick $1.5 billion in tax revenues into the state's coffers by the end of the fiscal year in June 2013. The release of the detailed budget revision, a much-anticipated spring ritual in the capital, kicks off the budget season in earnest. The Legislature has little more than a month to pass a budget by the June 15 deadline. latimesblogs.latimes.com/californ....on-deficit.html Read more: unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=10710#ixzz1us1QAlEf
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on May 14, 2012 17:09:46 GMT -6
The service reductions are expected to be harsher if voters in November reject Brown's proposed combination of a sales tax hike and increased levies on high earners. Sales tax hike? Why doesn't he just raise income taxes on the rich? Oh, that's right. I forgot. That would cut into his campaign contributions from the rich. My bad.
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Post by jeffolie on May 25, 2012 16:42:25 GMT -6
2012 prediction true: "...California gas prices to set record for Memorial Day weekend..."" ... Energy expenses for homes, cars, ... commodities such as grains with special attention to the seasonal trends for midyear tops ... traditional seasonal high hence the long standing cliche of 'sell in May and go away' ..." ========================== jeffolie predicts...2010 food crisis that I made in 2008 will continues in 2012 for selective commodities such as grains with special attention to the seasonal trends for midyear tops from continuing weather issues. jeffolie predicts...stock market gains to mid year which is the traditional seasonal high hence the long standing cliche of 'sell in May and go away' with Ben of the Fed providing stimulus. jeffolie predicts…SCREWFLATION: everything the ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down in value. Taxes, fees, charges, special assessment districts from State, Local, etc governments will rise while services from them will decrease. Energy expenses for homes, cars, electricity will rise compounded by additional taxes and fees. Food prices will rise. Health care/insurance expenses will rise; College Tuition will rise; Mortgage/house payments will rise because interest rates will rise seasonally; Rents will rise. The ‘average American family’ wealth will decline. The ‘average American family’ wealth will decline for those still owning their homes because house prices will continue to decline. Food Stamp use will make new records. I prefer screwflation over stagflation because of the regressive impact on middle and lower class families' standard of living and that they have no investments that rise with inflation or money printing and in fact usually have their wealth tied up in declining or negative home equity while the upper 20% of earners usually have investments that will rise in 2012 outside of their home equity. Read more: unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=10102#ixzz1vvM4m2M7======================= California gas prices to set record for Memorial Day weekend Los Angeles Times May 25, 2012 " ... California drivers will pay record gasoline prices over the Memorial Day weekend ... $4.311 on Thursday, down 5.5 cents from a week earlier, according to the AAA Fuel Gauge Report. That beats the previous state record for the traditional start of the summer driving season: During the Memorial Day weekend of 2008, average high prices ranged from $4.168 to $4.228.... " ..."It's harder this year because so many of the factors are political," Tyner said. "Problem in the Middle East could send oil up quickly, with gas prices following. But if debt contagion spreads in Europe, demand could fall and help drive prices lower."http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-summer-gas-prices-20120525,0,6584701.story
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on May 26, 2012 7:57:52 GMT -6
2012 prediction true: "...California gas prices to set record for Memorial Day weekend..."" ... Energy expenses for homes, cars, ... commodities such as grains with special attention to the seasonal trends for midyear tops ... traditional seasonal high hence the long standing cliche of 'sell in May and go away' ..."... California gas prices to set record for Memorial Day weekend Los Angeles Times May 25, 2012 " ... California drivers will pay record gasoline prices over the Memorial Day weekend ... $4.311 on Thursday, down 5.5 cents from a week earlier, according to the AAA Fuel Gauge Report. That beats the previous state record for the traditional start of the summer driving season: During the Memorial Day weekend of 2008, average high prices ranged from $4.168 to $4.228.... " That's really something. In Central Texas gas prices are in the $3.31-$3.41/gallon range. It's a wonder more people don't leave California. California prices are high, while wages and job prospects are low.
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Post by jeffolie on Jun 3, 2012 16:14:27 GMT -6
My jeffolie 2012 predicts comes true: Wells Fargo Seizes Stockton California City Hall, Parking Garages; City Prepares Bankruptcy Contingency Plans…US STATES, CITIES, LOCAL AGENCIES CRISIS: major layoffs by the end of 2012, bills will not be paid, some bonds will default. Read more: www.unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=10102#ixzz1wlrSXTZV========================================== Wells Fargo Seizes Stockton California City Hall, Parking Garages; City Prepares Bankruptcy Contingency Plans; Bondholder Mediation Underway Add Stockton, California (population 292,000) to the list of cities bankrupted because of bad management and over-generous public union wages and benefits. Please consider New Stockton City Hall building seized by Wells Fargo; city preps bankruptcy contingency plan The Stockton City Council announced Wednesday that they will look at bankruptcy contingency plans after Wells Fargo seized the new city hall building. The city paid $35 million to buy the 8-story building, but was not able to move in because of its money problems, and recently stopped making debt payments all together. This is the fourth building that was repossessed by Wells Fargo; the bank seized three city parking garages for the same reason. At the June 5 Stockton City Council meeting, members will look at a contingency plan if mediation between the city and creditors failed, city spokesperson Connie Cochran said. For the past two months, the city, under AB 506, has been in a mediation process with creditors to come up with a payment plan in order to avoid bankruptcy. Incompetent City Management and Unions to Blame The firefighters' union put together a list of 10 wasteful things the city has done wrong totally about $116 million, including $48 million for the new city hall. $417 Million Healthcare Liability The union does not tell you that Stockton has a $417 million liability for its "pay-as-you go retiree health care system" And that's just healthcare. What about pensions and untenable salaries? So who is more to blame here? Bondholder Mediation Mediation with bondholders and unions is now underway, the outcome of which will determine whether or not the city files for bankruptcy. Recordnet reports Wealth of interest in Stockton mediation Wall Street lawyers are likely taking the hardest line in mediation with Stockton, waiting for the closed-door talks to play out with their arms folded, but seated at the table. "It's one thing to be forced by a court to give up your rights," said Matt Fabian, a bond analyst at Municipal Market Advisers in Connecticut. "It's another thing to give them up willingly." Stockton entered mediation March 27, and it agreed with its creditors and labor groups to continue until June 25. Mediation is the last-ditch effort to avoid bankruptcy. The conversation in mediation starts with Stockton's general fund deficit of $26 million, a fourth multimillion dollar shortfall year. The city must chip away at that figure with an eye on restructuring its obligations and forecasted deficits for years to come. These are Stockton's major obligations next year, absent any concessions: Bondholders will get $13 million, an amount that has increased 600 percent in four years. Payments have ballooned just like homeowners who took adjustable-rate mortgages; Stockton must fund its pay-as-you go retiree health care system at $9 million annually, something City Manager Bob Deis has compared to a Ponzi scheme. To begin funding this $417 million liability, the city would have to put aside $18 million next year; A few things are known about mediation. There are 18 parties involved, and they are represented by 100 attorneys and accountants combing Stockton's finances. They are the city's labor groups, retired city employees, CalPERS, Wall Street investors, Wells Fargo Bank and insurers responsible for paying bond holders if and when Stockton defaults. My Take? The best course of action for the city is to seek bankruptcy. The city is indeed clearly bankrupt so there is no point in delaying. Delays will only serve the bondholders at taxpayer expense. In bankruptcy court, the city should win the right to unilaterally modify the pension and healthcare agreements made with public union workers as well as terminate all collective bargaining rights. 50% or even 75% haircuts on pension and healthcare plans may be necessary. So be it. Bondholders must also take a hit. I suggest 100% on the new city hall (minus whatever it can recover from the seized building). Wells Fargo deserves to be punished for being stupid enough to lend Stockton money. Inquirung minds should also consider City Council of North Las Vegas Unanimously Suspends Collectively Bargaining of Public Unions, Citing Emergency Statutes. If Stockton files bankruptcy it will be the largest city in the US to seek Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection. Don't worry, that record will fall soon enough. LA and Oakland cannot be that far behind. Mike "Mish" Shedlock globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.comglobaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/06/wells-fargo-seizes-stockton-california.html
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Post by jeffolie on Jun 8, 2012 17:00:30 GMT -6
My jeffolie 2012 predicts comes true: Wells Fargo Seizes Stockton California City Hall, Parking Garages; City Prepares Bankruptcy Contingency Plans…US STATES, CITIES, LOCAL AGENCIES CRISIS: major layoffs by the end of 2012, bills will not be paid, some bonds will default. Read more: www.unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=10102#ixzz1wlrSXTZV========================================== Wells Fargo Seizes Stockton California City Hall, Parking Garages; City Prepares Bankruptcy Contingency Plans; Bondholder Mediation Underway Add Stockton, California (population 292,000) to the list of cities bankrupted because of bad management and over-generous public union wages and benefits. Please consider New Stockton City Hall building seized by Wells Fargo; city preps bankruptcy contingency plan The Stockton City Council announced Wednesday that they will look at bankruptcy contingency plans after Wells Fargo seized the new city hall building. The city paid $35 million to buy the 8-story building, but was not able to move in because of its money problems, and recently stopped making debt payments all together. This is the fourth building that was repossessed by Wells Fargo; the bank seized three city parking garages for the same reason. At the June 5 Stockton City Council meeting, members will look at a contingency plan if mediation between the city and creditors failed, city spokesperson Connie Cochran said. For the past two months, the city, under AB 506, has been in a mediation process with creditors to come up with a payment plan in order to avoid bankruptcy. Incompetent City Management and Unions to Blame The firefighters' union put together a list of 10 wasteful things the city has done wrong totally about $116 million, including $48 million for the new city hall. $417 Million Healthcare Liability The union does not tell you that Stockton has a $417 million liability for its "pay-as-you go retiree health care system" And that's just healthcare. What about pensions and untenable salaries? So who is more to blame here? Bondholder Mediation Mediation with bondholders and unions is now underway, the outcome of which will determine whether or not the city files for bankruptcy. Recordnet reports Wealth of interest in Stockton mediation Wall Street lawyers are likely taking the hardest line in mediation with Stockton, waiting for the closed-door talks to play out with their arms folded, but seated at the table. "It's one thing to be forced by a court to give up your rights," said Matt Fabian, a bond analyst at Municipal Market Advisers in Connecticut. "It's another thing to give them up willingly." Stockton entered mediation March 27, and it agreed with its creditors and labor groups to continue until June 25. Mediation is the last-ditch effort to avoid bankruptcy. The conversation in mediation starts with Stockton's general fund deficit of $26 million, a fourth multimillion dollar shortfall year. The city must chip away at that figure with an eye on restructuring its obligations and forecasted deficits for years to come. These are Stockton's major obligations next year, absent any concessions: Bondholders will get $13 million, an amount that has increased 600 percent in four years. Payments have ballooned just like homeowners who took adjustable-rate mortgages; Stockton must fund its pay-as-you go retiree health care system at $9 million annually, something City Manager Bob Deis has compared to a Ponzi scheme. To begin funding this $417 million liability, the city would have to put aside $18 million next year; A few things are known about mediation. There are 18 parties involved, and they are represented by 100 attorneys and accountants combing Stockton's finances. They are the city's labor groups, retired city employees, CalPERS, Wall Street investors, Wells Fargo Bank and insurers responsible for paying bond holders if and when Stockton defaults. My Take? The best course of action for the city is to seek bankruptcy. The city is indeed clearly bankrupt so there is no point in delaying. Delays will only serve the bondholders at taxpayer expense. In bankruptcy court, the city should win the right to unilaterally modify the pension and healthcare agreements made with public union workers as well as terminate all collective bargaining rights. 50% or even 75% haircuts on pension and healthcare plans may be necessary. So be it. Bondholders must also take a hit. I suggest 100% on the new city hall (minus whatever it can recover from the seized building). Wells Fargo deserves to be punished for being stupid enough to lend Stockton money. Inquirung minds should also consider City Council of North Las Vegas Unanimously Suspends Collectively Bargaining of Public Unions, Citing Emergency Statutes. If Stockton files bankruptcy it will be the largest city in the US to seek Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection. Don't worry, that record will fall soon enough. LA and Oakland cannot be that far behind. Mike "Mish" Shedlock globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.comglobaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/06/wells-fargo-seizes-stockton-california.htmlAnother moderately sized City in crisis ... likely to follow Stockton into bankruptcy IMHO by the end of 2014 -------------------------------------------------------- North Las Vegas Crisis Shows Fragility of Nevada Economy Jun 8, 2012 From the top of the nine-story City Hall that opened last year in North Las Vegas, the neon lights and redevelopment on the Las Vegas Strip show the economy of Sin City recovering just five miles away. North Las Vegas, the fastest-growing large city in the U.S. just five years ago, hasn’t shared in the bounty. Nevada’s third-largest city, whose population more than doubled to 217,482 in 2010 from 1999, is on the verge of insolvency. Facing a $33 million budget gap, elected leaders last week declared a state of emergency and gave the city manager unprecedented powers to suspend union contracts. Abandoned Desert Mesa subdivision in North Las Vegas. The housing project by North Las Vegas Housing Authority stared in 2004 but the entire subdivision, which includes about a dozen finished houses that were never lived in, has since fallen into foreclosure and is now owned by the FDIC. Abandoned Desert Mesa subdivision in North Las Vegas. The housing project by North Las Vegas Housing Authority stared in 2004 but the entire subdivision, which includes about a dozen finished houses that were never lived in, has since fallen into foreclosure and is now owned by the FDIC. Tim Hacker, city manager of North Las Vegas, Nevada, Jeff Hurley, president of North Las Vegas Firefighters Local 1607, and Joseph North, a 29-year Las Vegas valley resident, talk about the economy of the city and its municipal budget deficit. The once-burgeoning city had a foreclosure rate of 1 in every 216 homes in April, according to RealtyTrac. Elected leaders have given the city manager unprecedented emergency powers to suspend union contracts to close the $33 million budget gap. The city’s travails mirror those of municipalities across the nation including Detroit; Providence, Rhode Island; and Stockton, California. They have struggled to contend with the costs of workers’ retirements and health care as the national economy fell into the longest recession since the 1930s, revenue flagged and population dwindled. In North Las Vegas, as the largest U.S. casino market charted a modest recovery, the city is saddled with the consequences of a “false economy” based on ever-growing homebuilding, City Manager Tim Hacker said. Property values last year were half of what they were in 2007. One in every 216 homes was in foreclosure in April, three times the national rate, according to RealtyTrac Inc. in Irvine, California. Building and Cutting “This has probably been more costly and more devastating to North Las Vegas than any natural disaster that’s occurred around the country,” Hacker said in his office at the granite- and-glass City Hall. The offices, which opened in November, drew complaints about free spending while 800 positions were being cut. The city fell victim to its own shortsightedness, said Jeff Hurley, president of North Las Vegas Firefighters Local 1607, one of the unions that rejected the city’s latest demands for contract concessions and is challenging the assertion of emergency powers. “We’ve had foreclosure issues here,” Hurley said over a chicken sandwich at a restaurant near the civic plaza. “And they’re still spending $130 million on a new City Hall. They just kept trucking along. There were a lot of alternative solutions. The constant has been to attack the city employees as if they’re the problems.” Blackjack and Beer North Las Vegas is about 100 square miles of block-by-block contrasts. City Hall overlooks gas stations, discount grocery stores and a casino advertising $1 beer, a $2 “delicious” lunch, $3 blackjack games and free check-cashing. Gambling, Nevada’s signature industry, has rebounded on the Strip, where gaming revenue increased 6.6 percent for the year ended March 31, according to the State Gaming Control Board. In North Las Vegas, gambling revenue decreased by 0.35 percent in the same period. Just north of City Hall and the Silver Nugget Casino are bungalows with barred doors and windows. Beyond, abutting treeless mountains, are master-planned communities with names like Aliante and Eldorado that blossomed during the housing boom of the past decade. With growth promising more tax revenue, the city’s payroll increased to 2,159 jobs in 2007 from 1,706 two years earlier, said Juliet Casey, a city spokeswoman. Multi-year labor contracts promised annual wage increases, according to a Fitch Ratings report. City leaders embarked on projects such as a water reclamation facility initially estimated to cost more than $300 million. Sapping the Center Development on the suburban fringe of the city drew attention away from poverty and decay in the central and southern sections of town, said Robert Lang, who teaches urban affairs at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. “North Las Vegas may sound suburban, but it is quite urban in its demographic composition,” Lang said by telephone. “It has a pretty large share of urban poverty and a high minority population.” On May 25, Fitch Ratings cut North Las Vegas’s general- obligation debt to two steps above junk, citing the city’s “severe fiscal distress.” The company questioned whether the city’s attempt to suspend portions of union contracts by asserting a state of emergency would survive a court challenge. ‘Civil Disorder’ State law “permits the suspension of contracts in ‘situations of emergency such as a riot, military action, natural disaster or civil disorder,’” analysts led by Shannon Groff said in a report. “The city plans to argue that the layoffs required following failure to achieve the needed concessions would create a public safety emergency,” according to the report. In Henderson, another Las Vegas suburb and Nevada’s second- most-populous city, assessed property value dropped by 45 percent in the same period as North Las Vegas’s fell by half. While Henderson and North Las Vegas experienced similar growth during the early and middle years of the past decade, Henderson braced for a crash, said Bud Cranor, a city spokesman. Unlike North Las Vegas, Henderson paid more than was necessary into its workers-compensation and infrastructure funds and suspended all capital projects in 2008, Cranor said in a telephone interview. This year, Henderson adopted a 2 percent across-the-board wage cut for employees, he said. “There’s just a lot of things we’ve done differently,” Cranor said. www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-08/north-las-vegas-crisis-shows-fragility-of-nevada-economy.html
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Post by jeffolie on Jun 18, 2012 14:35:44 GMT -6
True: my jeffolie predicts 'screwflation' of average American family -59% net worth, was not my 2012 top issue, Politics Matters more in 2012 impacting 2013,14+ ‘average American family Household heads’ median net worth slump 59% from before the recession ".. jeffolie predicts…SCREWFLATION:..the ‘average American family’...everything they own goes down in value..." "... Household heads ages 35 to 44 -- the group usually saddled with a mortgage and college-bound kids -- have watched their median net worth slump 59% from before the recession...." ============================== Household net worth slides 35%, Census Bureau says June 18, 2012 Household heads ages 35 to 44 -- the group usually saddled with a mortgage and college-bound kids -- have watched their median net worth slump 59% from before the recession.It's the most painful decline among age groups studied by the Census Bureau. Overall, American net worth took a 35% dive from 2005 to 2010, according to data tables released Monday. That's a slide to $66,740, from $102,844 in 2010 constant dollars, reflecting "drops in housing values and stock market indices," said Census Bureau economist Alfred Gottschalck in a statement. Compared with 2009's median of $68,900, net worth was down more than 3% in 2010. Last week, the Federal Reserve said the typical American family lost nearly 40% of its wealth from 2007 to 2010, with net worth down to $77,300, from $126,400, adjusting for inflation. But take out home equity and net worth goes up 8% between 2009 and 2010, according to the Census Bureau report. Households run by those 65 or older saw net worth decrease 13% to $170,128. Household heads under age 35 suffered a 37% plunge to $5,402. All groups regardless of educational level experienced a decline, though more schooling means higher net worth, according to the Census Bureau. The median for those with a high school diploma was $42,223, compared with $142,518 for those with a bachelor’s degree and $245,763 for those with a graduate or professional degree. And the chasm is widening. College graduates made nearly twice as much as those with only a high school diploma in 2000. In 2010, they were making nearly 3 1/2 times as much. www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-household-net-20120618,0,4695653.story ============================ jeffolie predicts…SCREWFLATION: everything the ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down in value. Taxes, fees, charges, special assessment districts from State, Local, etc governments will rise while services from them will decrease. Energy expenses for homes, cars, electricity will rise compounded by additional taxes and fees. Food prices will rise. Health care/insurance expenses will rise; College Tuition will rise; Mortgage/house payments will rise because interest rates will rise seasonally; Rents will rise. The ‘average American family’ wealth will decline. The ‘average American family’ wealth will decline for those still owning their homes because house prices will continue to decline. Food Stamp use will make new records. I prefer screwflation over stagflation because of the regressive impact on middle and lower class families' standard of living and that they have no investments that rise with inflation or money printing and in fact usually have their wealth tied up in declining or negative home equity while the upper 20% of earners usually have investments that will rise in 2012 outside of their home equity. Read more: www.unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=10102&page=1#ixzz1yBAwmoHC
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Post by jeffolie on Jun 27, 2012 9:42:30 GMT -6
My jeffolie 2012 predicts comes true: Wells Fargo Seizes Stockton California City Hall, Parking Garages; City Prepares Bankruptcy Contingency Plans…US STATES, CITIES, LOCAL AGENCIES CRISIS: major layoffs by the end of 2012, bills will not be paid, some bonds will default. Read more: www.unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=10102#ixzz1wlrSXTZV========================================== Wells Fargo Seizes Stockton California City Hall, Parking Garages; City Prepares Bankruptcy Contingency Plans; Bondholder Mediation Underway Add Stockton, California (population 292,000) to the list of cities bankrupted because of bad management and over-generous public union wages and benefits. Please consider New Stockton City Hall building seized by Wells Fargo; city preps bankruptcy contingency plan The Stockton City Council announced Wednesday that they will look at bankruptcy contingency plans after Wells Fargo seized the new city hall building. The city paid $35 million to buy the 8-story building, but was not able to move in because of its money problems, and recently stopped making debt payments all together. This is the fourth building that was repossessed by Wells Fargo; the bank seized three city parking garages for the same reason. At the June 5 Stockton City Council meeting, members will look at a contingency plan if mediation between the city and creditors failed, city spokesperson Connie Cochran said. For the past two months, the city, under AB 506, has been in a mediation process with creditors to come up with a payment plan in order to avoid bankruptcy. Incompetent City Management and Unions to Blame The firefighters' union put together a list of 10 wasteful things the city has done wrong totally about $116 million, including $48 million for the new city hall. $417 Million Healthcare Liability The union does not tell you that Stockton has a $417 million liability for its "pay-as-you go retiree health care system" And that's just healthcare. What about pensions and untenable salaries? So who is more to blame here? Bondholder Mediation Mediation with bondholders and unions is now underway, the outcome of which will determine whether or not the city files for bankruptcy. Recordnet reports Wealth of interest in Stockton mediation Wall Street lawyers are likely taking the hardest line in mediation with Stockton, waiting for the closed-door talks to play out with their arms folded, but seated at the table. "It's one thing to be forced by a court to give up your rights," said Matt Fabian, a bond analyst at Municipal Market Advisers in Connecticut. "It's another thing to give them up willingly." Stockton entered mediation March 27, and it agreed with its creditors and labor groups to continue until June 25. Mediation is the last-ditch effort to avoid bankruptcy. The conversation in mediation starts with Stockton's general fund deficit of $26 million, a fourth multimillion dollar shortfall year. The city must chip away at that figure with an eye on restructuring its obligations and forecasted deficits for years to come. These are Stockton's major obligations next year, absent any concessions: Bondholders will get $13 million, an amount that has increased 600 percent in four years. Payments have ballooned just like homeowners who took adjustable-rate mortgages; Stockton must fund its pay-as-you go retiree health care system at $9 million annually, something City Manager Bob Deis has compared to a Ponzi scheme. To begin funding this $417 million liability, the city would have to put aside $18 million next year; A few things are known about mediation. There are 18 parties involved, and they are represented by 100 attorneys and accountants combing Stockton's finances. They are the city's labor groups, retired city employees, CalPERS, Wall Street investors, Wells Fargo Bank and insurers responsible for paying bond holders if and when Stockton defaults. My Take? The best course of action for the city is to seek bankruptcy. The city is indeed clearly bankrupt so there is no point in delaying. Delays will only serve the bondholders at taxpayer expense. In bankruptcy court, the city should win the right to unilaterally modify the pension and healthcare agreements made with public union workers as well as terminate all collective bargaining rights. 50% or even 75% haircuts on pension and healthcare plans may be necessary. So be it. Bondholders must also take a hit. I suggest 100% on the new city hall (minus whatever it can recover from the seized building). Wells Fargo deserves to be punished for being stupid enough to lend Stockton money. Inquirung minds should also consider City Council of North Las Vegas Unanimously Suspends Collectively Bargaining of Public Unions, Citing Emergency Statutes. If Stockton files bankruptcy it will be the largest city in the US to seek Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection. Don't worry, that record will fall soon enough. LA and Oakland cannot be that far behind. Mike "Mish" Shedlock globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.comglobaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/06/wells-fargo-seizes-stockton-california.htmlStockton in California becomes largest US city to file for bankruptcyTalks with creditors fail in city of 300,000 roiled by budget deficits, debt payment defaults, and job and benefit cuts "... Stockton's budget would also cut spending on employee compensation and retiree benefits by $11.2 million. About $7m in savings would come from cutting retiree medical benefits for one year and then phasing them out, an idea that stuns ... " www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/27/stockton-bankruptcy-california-economy?newsfeed=true Wednesday 27 June 2012
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Post by jeffolie on Jul 1, 2012 13:07:17 GMT -6
Stockton '... the largest city in the United States to ever file for bankruptcy ... ' my jeffolie prediction for 2012 is true, includes " ... CITIES,...CRISIS: major layoffs by the end of 2012, bills will not be paid, some bonds will default. Bankruptcy in FEDERAL COURT plays by changing rules as proven by the GM bk that compromised debtors, employees and the government. Stockton hopes for a short process but CALPERS, the giant CA pension will not rollover and play dead.============================================== Analysis: Stockton, California new paradigm for struggling cities NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stockton, California, the largest city in the United States to ever file for bankruptcy, could create a new template for struggling cities and potentially lift the stigma that scars municipalities if they seek court protection from creditors. If Stockton, which filed for Chapter 9 municipal bankruptcy on June 28, can reach consensus with its creditors and craft a plan to exit bankruptcy quickly others may follow suit, legal experts said. "Successful cases breed more filings," said Andrew Glenn, a bankruptcy partner in New York at Kasowitz Benson Torres & Friedman. "Municipalities watch these cases closely around the country, and once the template is set up, if other towns have these problems, they're going to follow the template." Other cities and counties have gone bankrupt because of a bad investment or ill-conceived public works project, like the sewer system that sank Jefferson County, Alabama, into $3.14 billion of debt. But Stockton may be a new breed of failing city, swamped by routine costs, pension payments, a payroll for city employees, a years-long economic slide and depressed housing tax receipts - the same issues that currently face many other cities still struggling to recover from the cavernous U.S. recession. "Stockton is a precursor of something very different" from Jefferson County, Glenn said. "That's what makes it sort of a game-changing type of a case." It will be the first case to test California's mandated mediation process. State lawmakers changed the rules after the city of Vallejo went bankrupt in 2008 and then slogged through a three-year bankruptcy battle that racked up at least $10 million in attorneys' fees. Now, unless they declare a fiscal emergency, California municipalities must participate in mediation before they are allowed to file for bankruptcy. Each state has different requirements for cities and towns that want to file for Chapter 9 bankruptcy. Some use budget commissions, receivers and other measures to try to help resuscitate cities before allowing them to go bankrupt as a last resort. Nearly half of U.S. states don't allow municipal bankruptcies at all. James Spiotto, a partner at Chapman and Cutler in Chicago, said California is the only state that requires mediation prior to a Chapter 9 filing. A similar proposal failed to pass the Illinois legislature this session, he said. He also noted in a recent national survey of Chapter 9 state provisions that California labor unions supported the mediation law as "a reaction to the difficulties they experienced in the city of Vallejo Chapter 9 bankruptcy proceeding." 'A HUGE LEG UP' Though the mediation process didn't stave off the bankruptcy for Stockton, lawyers said it forced the city and creditors to talk to each other ahead of time and put the city in a better position going into court - and could result in a quicker exit from the case. "Stockton is incredibly well-prepared for a bankruptcy filing and very forthcoming in terms of disclosing to creditors and the public," said Karol Denniston, a bankruptcy partner at Schiff Hardin in San Francisco. A third of Stockton's creditors reached agreements with the city during mediation, giving the city "a huge leg up, because at least they're not filing bankruptcy like Vallejo did, fighting with everybody," she said. That result will also allow the city to show a bankruptcy judge it has tried in good faith to negotiate with creditors and is truly insolvent - requirements a California city must normally meet for a bankruptcy filing to be ruled valid. One big step Stockton is not expected to take is to attempt to dodge its pension obligations to city employees. If it did, the city would have to confront the powerful California Public Employees' Retirement System (Calpers), which handles pension plans for many California cities and counties. Calpers and unions around the country have made it clear they see a pension as an iron-clad right, one that's legally protected even in a bankruptcy. Whether pensions are contract rights, which can be changed, or property rights, which are protected under the U.S. Constitution, has never been tested in court. That's largely because of the time, money and emotional effort it would take for a municipality to fight deep-pocketed and politically connected pension systems to full resolution at an appellate level, experts said. "Calpers is going to push back hammer and tong," said Kenneth Klee, a professor at the University of California at Los Angeles Law School. Public employees pensions weren't challenged by Vallejo, which used the same attorneys Stockton has hired. BANKRUPTCY A LAST RESORT Even so, bankruptcy is no easy road for municipalities. Business leaders in Jefferson County, which last year filed the biggest-ever U.S. municipal bankruptcy, at $4.23 billion have said the bankruptcy has deterred industrial investment. Stockton, as a case everyone's watching, could also be a deterrent to some other cities. "The threat of bankruptcy is quite a lever, particularly if people believe it's a realistic threat," said Mark Kalla, a partner at Barnes & Thornburg in Minneapolis. "It may make other cities' negotiations more successful, more fruitful." The possibility that Providence, Rhode Island could run out of money and eventually have to file for bankruptcy prompted labor unions, retirees and city officials to come to the table and reach a tentative deal in May on pension and healthcare benefit reforms. Firefighters, police officers and city workers could have faced more layoffs, and retirees could have seen steep cuts in benefits, if the city went under. Retirees have approved the agreement, and if union members sign off the deal is expected to save the city up to $18.5 million a year and help avert insolvency. Cities may also be drawn to negotiate because they need good credit ratings to borrow money at affordable rates - ratings that are harmed by defaults on loans and bankruptcy filings. Both Standard & Poor's Rating Services and Moody's Investors Service cut Stockton's credit ratings in the days leading up to its bankruptcy filing. "This is a case the whole country is watching," Denniston said. "It is a case where we're all looking to see if we can create a better way to do this." news.yahoo.com/analysis-stockton-california-paradigm-struggling-cities-120352747.html============================= jeffolie predicts…US STATES, CITIES, LOCAL AGENCIES CRISIS: major layoffs by the end of 2012, bills will not be paid, some bonds will default. Read more: www.unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=10102#ixzz1zOnii7YH
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Post by jeffolie on Jul 6, 2012 11:55:21 GMT -6
rental prices have begun to spike as vacancy rates reach a low not seen in a decadeIncluded in my jeffolie Jan 1st 2012 predictions remains a carried over item inside the screwflation where everything the average American pays will rise: "Rents will rise"from below: "... "For most markets, once vacancies tighten below 5 percent, effective rents tend to spike as landlords perceive that tight market conditions afford them greater pricing power over tenants. With overall vacancy below this level, it appears that rents are beginning to accelerate," according to Reis senior economist Ryan Severino.... "...According to Severino, " vacancy has not been this low since the wake of the dot-com boom more than a decade ago and there is a paucity of available units." Across the country, rental prices have begun to spike as vacancy rates reach a low not seen in a decade, according to Reis, which tracks commercial real estate performance. Nationwide, vacancy rates have fallen below 5 percent to 4.7 percent in the second quarter of 2012, a low that hasn't been seen since 2001. ================================= Apartment Rents Rise, Vacancies Plunge On June 1, Dan Nainan's landlord informed him that at the end of August his rent would be increasing by more than 28 percent. A five-year resident of his one-bedroom apartment located in a prime spot in New York City, Nainan's rent is set to rise to $2,700 to $2,100 in less than three months. "I was really upset. I was in shock because I have been here for five years," said Nainan. "I'm a great tenant. I don't have loud parties or make noise. I'm a model tenant and I'm gone a lot. I don't have any pets." Across the country, rental prices have begun to spike as vacancy rates reach a low not seen in a decade, according to Reis, which tracks commercial real estate performance. Nationwide, vacancy rates have fallen below 5 percent to 4.7 percent in the second quarter of 2012, a low that hasn't been seen since 2001. "For most markets, once vacancies tighten below 5 percent, effective rents tend to spike as landlords perceive that tight market conditions afford them greater pricing power over tenants. With overall vacancy below this level, it appears that rents are beginning to accelerate," according to Reis senior economist Ryan Severino. In the U.S., the average price for effective rent rose by 1.3 percent to $1,041. New York City had the highest increase in the second quarter after average rents rose 1.7 percent to $2,935. For Nainan, who lives in Chelsea, the hike is 15 times the average increase, and he has already begun looking for a new place. "I understand the landlord part of it-it's market forces," said Nainan. "If I don't want it, someone else will. It's very much a landlords' market. It's definitely not a renter's market." A feeling many renters across the country may be experiencing. After New York, apartment renters in Fort Lauderdale, Seattle, San Francisco and Nashville saw the highest effective rent growth. New York's second quarter vacancy rate of 2.2 percent makes it one of the tightest markets for finding a rental apartment. A few other areas experiencing low vacancies include Portland, Ore., Minneapolis, New Haven, Conn., and San Jose, which round out the top five. According to Severino, "vacancy has not been this low since the wake of the dot-com boom more than a decade ago and there is a paucity of available units." He continued, "as the market tightens and vacancy reaches very low levels, landlords shift their strategy for growing revenue vacancy decline to accelerating rent increases," which is what is currently happening. With his landlord politely taking a take it or leave it approach, Nainan says he is actively looking for a new apartment of the double digit percentage hike. "I don't think the market can support that. I'm resolved not to pay it just on principle," said Nainan. The reasons for higher rents include an exodus of people from houses and condos that were foreclosed during the real estate meltdown and tighter lending standards that have locked more buyers out of the market. news.yahoo.com/apartment-rents-rising-vacancies-10-low-140611799--abc-news-savings-and-investment.html============================== "... jeffolie predicts…SCREWFLATION: everything the ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down in value. Taxes, fees, charges, special assessment districts from State, Local, etc governments will rise while services from them will decrease. Energy expenses for homes, cars, electricity will rise compounded by additional taxes and fees. Food prices will rise. Health care/insurance expenses will rise; College Tuition will rise; Mortgage/house payments will rise because interest rates will rise seasonally; Rents will rise. The ‘average American family’ wealth will decline.... Read more: www.unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=10102#ixzz1zrllTDIv
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Post by jeffolie on Jul 7, 2012 10:09:07 GMT -6
Food prices will rise...Dust Bowl record heat "Dust Bowl" record heat: Soybeans prices skyrocket, corn prices jumping...food riots will follow in countries importing too much which can not afford the price increases...US no longer reliable source as year after year prices rise from unfortunate weather such as floods, droughts, heat, derechos(land storms with winds as strong as hurricanes last week) China reached new deals in S. Am., Argentina, etc to start big new acreage for soybeans but on paper and deliveries are 2 different results. "... Food prices will rise...."in my jeffolie 2012 prediction for screwflation ================================= Torrid Heat: 4,500 Record Highs and Counting Jul 7, 2012 We're now approaching a two-week spell of record-smashing heat which first built in the Rockies and High Plains, then spread into the rest of the nation's heartland, then surged into the Southeast and parts of the Mid-Atlantic States. The number of record highs tied or broken across the nation is staggering. Below are the latest tallies over the past 30 days from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center: How significant is this heat, in historical context? We've had a potential new state record for South Carolina (113 at the Univ. of S.C. in Columbia and in Johnston) and a near-miss of the state record for Tennessee (Lewisburg reached 112 on July 2). Atlanta, Ga. has reached the "century mark" 4 times since June 29. It had been just under 5 years since they had last hit 100 degrees, and hadn't done so in the month of June since 1954! Friday, St. Louis tied July 1936 for the second longest streak of 100-plus degree days on record, with its 9th straight day. While the record of 13 straight days will not be eclipsed, the mere fact we're in the territory of the "Dust Bowl" speaks magnitudes! Chicago tied a record triple-digit streak of 3 days from Aug. 1947 and Jul. 1911 Friday. Parts of Chicagoland were as hot as 105 degrees Thursday! The Badger State also seared in heat not seen in decades Thursday. With a high of 104, Madison, Wisc. had its hottest day since July 10, 1976. Only a pair of "Dust Bowl" days (Jul. 13 & 14, 1936) were hotter there. Highs topped out at 106 degrees in Kenosha, Wautoma, and Middleton Thursday. The triple-digit heat just rolls on into the weekend in the Central Plains, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic States. But it's not just triple-digit heat, in some locations all-time record highs may be threatened Saturday, including... - Washington, D.C. (106 most recently on Jul. 20, 1930) - Pittsburgh (103 most recently on Jul. 16, 1988) - Louisville (107 most recently on Jul. 14, 1936) Only one other day since the "Dust Bowl" has Washington, D.C. seen a high of at least 105 degrees (Aug. 17, 1997). Triple-digit heat may spread as far north as New York City, as well. The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh noted that forecast temperatures a few thousand feet above the ground for Saturday were at levels never seen before at that location. The last 100-degree high in the "Steel City" was almost 17 years ago (July 15, 1995). Saturday could also see temperatures not seen since the "Dust Bowl" in Cincinnati. Only July days in 1936, 1934, or 1901 have seen highs reach 105 degrees in the "Queen City". www.weather.com/news/weather-forecast/record-heat-triple-digits===================================== jeffolie predicts…SCREWFLATION: everything the ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down in value. Taxes, fees, charges, special assessment districts from State, Local, etc governments will rise while services from them will decrease. Energy expenses for homes, cars, electricity will rise compounded by additional taxes and fees. Food prices will rise. Health care/insurance expenses will rise; College Tuition will rise; Mortgage/house payments will rise because interest rates will rise seasonally; Rents will rise. The ‘average American family’ wealth will decline. The ‘average American family’ wealth will decline for those still owning their homes because house prices will continue to decline. Food Stamp use will make new records. Read more: www.unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=10102#ixzz1zx8smXza
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Post by jeffolie on Jul 11, 2012 15:02:57 GMT -6
3rd CA city bankruptcy: San Bernardino 200k pop east of Los Angeles Almost 800,000 not federal, government workers have lost their jobs [ABC news item broadcast on july 10th evening news] from the peak of 2007. My jeffolie prediction came true: jeffolie predicts…US STATES, CITIES, LOCAL AGENCIES CRISIS: major layoffs by the end of 2012, bills will not be paid, some bonds will default. ==================================================== July 11, 2012 Municipal bonds discount San Bernardino bankruptcy NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Municipal bond investors on Wednesday shrugged off the move by San Bernardino, Calif., to file for bankruptcy as the broader market continues to perform relatively well, indicating investors understand these things will occasionally happen. San Bernardino, a city of about 200,000 people east of Los Angeles, thus is on track to be the third municipality in the Golden State to opt for bankruptcy, joining Stockton and Mammoth Lakes. Read more on San Bernardino bankruptcy filing. Defaults — which a bankruptcy filing doesn’t even necessarily portend — are exceedingly rare among investment-grade municipal bonds. Cities and counties face huge pressures from weak revenues due to slow economic growth, especially in areas hit the hardest by the housing bust and foreclosures, and from growing underfunded liabilities for public pensions. But on the whole, municipalities tend to pay their debtholders, and for those at risk, the signals often come years before the actual filing. “There’s still strong demand because there are more compelling reasons to jump into municipal bonds,” said James Barnes, senior fixed-income manager at National Penn Investors Trust Co. “We’re going to have bankruptcies here and there,” Barnes said. Unless it turns into a streak of smaller bankruptcies or a big one that comes out of the blue, “the market is absorbing the news pretty well.” And even though California bankruptcies have been in the spotlight, the state’s muni funds have outperformed all municipal fund categories with the exception of high-yield munis. In the year to date, long California municipal funds have returned 6.61%, according to Morningstar. Muni national long funds have returned 5.69% over the same period, as have taxable multisector bond funds, Morningstar found. Late Wednesday, San Bernardino’s city council voted for the municipality to file for bankruptcy. The debt prices San Bernardino has to pay have held up fairly well after the vote to file for bankruptcy, said Josh Gonze, a municipal-bond fund manager at Thornburg Investment Management. The city’s lease-revenue bonds and special tax bonds are trading above 90 cents on the dollar, analysts said. “That’s cheap compared to high quality bonds, but indicates the debt is far from collapsing and is still attracting a bid that’s nearly face value,” or 100 cents on the dollar, said Gonze, who manages the Thornburg California Limited Term Municipal Fund LTCIX +0.07% . At the end of last month, Stockton, a community of 292,000 east of San Francisco, became the biggest U.S. city to go into bankruptcy, according to Bloomberg News. And at the beginning of July, the tiny mountain resort town of Mammoth Lakes filed for protection from creditors, according to news reports. Barnes said, “there have been some pockets, but not enough that would bring investors back to that skittishness seen” starting late in 2010 after one analyst predicted a massive amount of municipal defaults — something that never happened. “It’s basically having zero impact because there are thousands of municipalities out there,” he said. That’s impressive, he said, in light of how sensitive investors in all markets have been to negative news, whether out of Europe or domestically. www.marketwatch.com/story/municipal-bonds-discount-3rd-california-bankruptcy-2012-07-11?dist=afterbell=============================== jeffolie predicts…US STATES, CITIES, LOCAL AGENCIES CRISIS: major layoffs by the end of 2012, bills will not be paid, some bonds will default. Read more: www.unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=10102#ixzz20LkLizcz
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Post by jeffolie on Jul 12, 2012 20:53:47 GMT -6
Electric rates up, fuels collapsing, Electric rates rising anyways ... smell a rat? "... Electric rates are rising slightly in the US, even though price of natural gas has plummeted ... " everything the ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down ...screwflation prediction true... including energy such as electricity"... electricity will rise compounded by additional taxes and fees... " =========================== Electric rates are rising slightly in the US, even though price of natural gas has plummeted NEW YORK — A plunge in the price of natural gas has made it cheaper for utilities to produce electricity. But the savings aren’t translating to lower rates for customers. Instead, U.S. electricity prices are going up.Electricity prices are forecast to rise slightly this summer. But any increase is noteworthy because natural gas, which is used to produce nearly a third of the country’s power, is 43 percent cheaper than a year ago. A long-term downward trend in power prices could be starting to reverse, analysts say. “It’s caused us to scratch our heads,” says Tyler Hodge, an analyst at the Energy Department who studies electricity prices. The recent heat wave that gripped much of the country increased demand for power as families cranked up their air conditioners. And that may boost some June utility bills. But the nationwide rise in electricity prices is attributable to other factors, analysts say: — In many states, retail electricity rates are set by regulators every few years. As a result, lower power costs haven’t yet made their way to customers. — Utilities often lock in their costs for natural gas and other fuels years in advance. That helps protect customers when fuel prices spike, but it prevents customers from reaping the benefits of a price drop. — The cost of actually delivering electricity, which accounts for 40 percent of a customer’s bill on average, has been rising fast. That has eaten up any potential savings from the production of electricity. Utilities are building transmission lines, installing new equipment and fixing up power plants after what analysts say has been years of under-investment. This may reverse what has been a gradual decline in retail electricity prices. Adjusted for inflation, the average retail electricity price has been drifting mostly lower since 1984, when it was 16.7 cents per kilowatt-hour. “The ratepayer is going to have to foot the bill,” says David Wright, vice chairman of the South Carolina Public Service Commission and president of the National Association of Regulatory Commissioners. The average U.S. residential electricity price is expected to be 12.4 cents per kilowatt hour for the June-to-August period, up 2.4 percent from the same time last year. For the full year, electricity prices are expected to rise 2 percent. In a typical summer month, that would mean an extra $3 on a residential bill, which includes the cost of generating the power and delivering it to a home, plus local taxes and fees. Electricity pricing is complicated, and it differs from state to state. In states where power providers are allowed to compete, such as Texas, Pennsylvania and New York, customers can shop around for cheaper electricity, although delivery charges are still set by regulators. Natural gas has plummeted in price because of a dramatic increase in U.S. gas production over the past few years and a warm winter that allowed supplies to build up. Even though coal accounts for 38 percent of all power produced in the U.S., natural gas plays an outsized role in determining the price of electricity. The price paid for electricity from the last power plant fired up to meet demand at any given moment is what sets the wholesale price for a given region. And since gas-fired power plants are usually the most expensive, they tend to be fired up last. Cheaper natural gas has led to lower wholesale power prices. Power companies operating in states with competitive markets, such as Exelon Corp. and NRG Energy Inc., have seen profits and stock prices tumble along with wholesale prices. Those operating in more regulated power markets, such as Southern Co. and Dominion Resources Inc., have fared much better because their rates don’t fluctuate as much. The lower wholesale prices have made it through to some customers’ bills, and others could see a temporary dip next year. At the very least, analysts say, the drop in natural gas prices is keeping electric rates from rising faster than they otherwise would have. Customers could still get a break this summer — if not on their electric rates, then at least from Mother Nature. This summer has gotten off to a scorching start in much of the country and is expected to be hotter than normal. But it isn’t expected to be as hot as the last two summers, according to Matt Rogers at Commodity Weather Group, which provides forecasts for the energy industry. Don’t get too excited, though. The Energy Department’s Hodge calculates that if the summer forecast holds true, customers will save an average of $5.95 per month. www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/electric-rates-are-rising-slightly-in-the-us-even-though-price-of-natural-gas-has-plummeted/2012/07/11/gJQAWCSTdW_story.html===================== jeffolie predicts…SCREWFLATION: everything the ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down in value. Taxes, fees, charges, special assessment districts from State, Local, etc governments will rise while services from them will decrease. Energy expenses for homes, cars, electricity will rise compounded by additional taxes and fees. Food prices will rise. Health care/insurance... more....
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Post by jeffolie on Jul 13, 2012 8:54:55 GMT -6
Food prices will rise...Dust Bowl record heat "Dust Bowl" record heat: Soybeans prices skyrocket, corn prices jumping...food riots will follow in countries importing too much which can not afford the price increases...US no longer reliable source as year after year prices rise from unfortunate weather such as floods, droughts, heat, derechos(land storms with winds as strong as hurricanes last week) China reached new deals in S. Am., Argentina, etc to start big new acreage for soybeans but on paper and deliveries are 2 different results. "... Food prices will rise...."in my jeffolie 2012 prediction for screwflation ================================= Torrid Heat: 4,500 Record Highs and Counting Jul 7, 2012 We're now approaching a two-week spell of record-smashing heat which first built in the Rockies and High Plains, then spread into the rest of the nation's heartland, then surged into the Southeast and parts of the Mid-Atlantic States. The number of record highs tied or broken across the nation is staggering. Below are the latest tallies over the past 30 days from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center: How significant is this heat, in historical context? We've had a potential new state record for South Carolina (113 at the Univ. of S.C. in Columbia and in Johnston) and a near-miss of the state record for Tennessee (Lewisburg reached 112 on July 2). Atlanta, Ga. has reached the "century mark" 4 times since June 29. It had been just under 5 years since they had last hit 100 degrees, and hadn't done so in the month of June since 1954! Friday, St. Louis tied July 1936 for the second longest streak of 100-plus degree days on record, with its 9th straight day. While the record of 13 straight days will not be eclipsed, the mere fact we're in the territory of the "Dust Bowl" speaks magnitudes! Chicago tied a record triple-digit streak of 3 days from Aug. 1947 and Jul. 1911 Friday. Parts of Chicagoland were as hot as 105 degrees Thursday! The Badger State also seared in heat not seen in decades Thursday. With a high of 104, Madison, Wisc. had its hottest day since July 10, 1976. Only a pair of "Dust Bowl" days (Jul. 13 & 14, 1936) were hotter there. Highs topped out at 106 degrees in Kenosha, Wautoma, and Middleton Thursday. The triple-digit heat just rolls on into the weekend in the Central Plains, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic States. But it's not just triple-digit heat, in some locations all-time record highs may be threatened Saturday, including... - Washington, D.C. (106 most recently on Jul. 20, 1930) - Pittsburgh (103 most recently on Jul. 16, 1988) - Louisville (107 most recently on Jul. 14, 1936) Only one other day since the "Dust Bowl" has Washington, D.C. seen a high of at least 105 degrees (Aug. 17, 1997). Triple-digit heat may spread as far north as New York City, as well. The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh noted that forecast temperatures a few thousand feet above the ground for Saturday were at levels never seen before at that location. The last 100-degree high in the "Steel City" was almost 17 years ago (July 15, 1995). Saturday could also see temperatures not seen since the "Dust Bowl" in Cincinnati. Only July days in 1936, 1934, or 1901 have seen highs reach 105 degrees in the "Queen City". www.weather.com/news/weather-forecast/record-heat-triple-digits===================================== jeffolie predicts…SCREWFLATION: everything the ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down in value. Taxes, fees, charges, special assessment districts from State, Local, etc governments will rise while services from them will decrease. Energy expenses for homes, cars, electricity will rise compounded by additional taxes and fees. Food prices will rise. Health care/insurance expenses will rise; College Tuition will rise; Mortgage/house payments will rise because interest rates will rise seasonally; Rents will rise. The ‘average American family’ wealth will decline. The ‘average American family’ wealth will decline for those still owning their homes because house prices will continue to decline. Food Stamp use will make new records. Read more: www.unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=10102#ixzz1zx8smXzaOften, year after year now I have pointed to the weather change from volcanos. Food prices rise in part because of the weather cycle. As volcanos impact changing amounts of CO2 and particulates from the eruptions spewing these into the higher levels of the atsmosphere, shifting the high/low pressure areas thus shifting the jets streams and consequently the weather patterns...too much rain in the wrong places causes historic floods while too little rain in the wrong places causes historic heat. This results in failed crops and higher food prices. ======================= The United States Department of Agriculture has declared natural disaster areas in more than 1,000 counties and 26 drought-stricken states, making it the largest natural disaster in America ever news.yahoo.com/photos/drought-strikes-26-states-slideshow/#crsl=%252Fphotos%252Fdrought-strikes-26-states-slideshow%252Fsteve-niedbalski-chops-down-his-drought-and-heat-stricken-corn-for-feed-wednesday-july-11-2012-in-photo-1342141077.html
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