Post by jeffolie on Feb 26, 2012 17:59:01 GMT -6
Who votes and who stays away from the voting booths determines who wins ... politics matter in making policy and campaign strategies:
"... immigration right now is a losing issue for President Obama and Democrats. ... " Immigration remains a Republican strong hold in large part because as shown below in the actual voting that still like younger voters, the hispanic voters do NOT VOTE in significantly large number to impact politics that matter.
For example in a previously black gang ridden, poverty striven southern California city of Compton blacks have been replaced by hispanics where blacks were almost 100% and now hispanics are about 70% but... where it counts, in the voting booth again hispanic voters do NOT VOTE in significantly large number to impact politics that matter. The Compton elected government remains 100% black after many elections when hispanic residents have now a vast majority.
"... immigration right now is a losing issue for President Obama and Democrats. A NBC News/Marist poll in the state showed over two times as many voters in Arizona were "more likely" to support a candidate that backed the state's hardline anti-illegal immigration law as those who would be less likely to do so. While the Hispanic growth in the state is significant, the percentage of those who are registered is relatively low - and there have been few signs of any significant uptick in political participation. ... "
==============================
What We Learned: Auto-Tuned in Michigan
By Hotline Staff
February 25, 2012 | 6:15 PM
Next Tuesday's Michigan Republican presidential primary has brought the rescue of the U.S. auto industry by the Bush and Obama administrations back to the forefront this week, and each side can point to public polling to bolster their position. A new Pew Research Center poll released Thursday showed a majority of Americans think the program was a good thing for the U.S. economy, while a Gallup poll also released Thursday had a slight majority who said they disapprove of this action.
But the polls aren't contradictory -- and they both offer important rhetorical lessons for each party. The Pew poll asked respondents if they thought "loans to General Motors and Chrysler" were good or bad for the economy, while the Gallup poll asked if respondents approved or disapproved of "the financial bailout for U.S. automakers." But in Michigan -- which Republicans hope to put in play in November -- they are more attuned to the issue: In an NBC News/Marist poll released this week, the vast majority of all voters think the program was a good idea, even with the word "bailout" in the question.
-- The White House continues to talk about its ability to contest Arizona, but polling data suggest otherwise -- and underscores the fact that immigration right now is a losing issue for President Obama and Democrats. A NBC News/Marist poll in the state showed over two times as many voters in Arizona were "more likely" to support a candidate that backed the state's hardline anti-illegal immigration law as those who would be less likely to do so. While the Hispanic growth in the state is significant, the percentage of those who are registered is relatively low - and there have been few signs of any significant uptick in political participation.
The numbers also provide a cautionary tale to the party's likely Senate nominee, Richard Carmona, who is an attractive recruit because of his Hispanic heritage, but could lose support from white voters over his opposition to SB 1070. Remember: the law was the driving force behind Gov. Jan Brewer's political success - she looked like a sure loser after ascending to the post, but ended up winning election comfortably by a 12-point margin. There was a good reason why Janet Napolitano didn't run for Senate -- her involvement in the White House's lawsuit against the state immigration law would have handicapped her campaign from the start.
-- The issue of abortion is a balancing act for the GOP in Virginia. Delegate Bob Marshall's so-called "personhood" bill was tabled by the Senate, with the help of some Republican senators, until 2013 so it can be studied more. The controversial ultrasound bill was amended after complaints about the physically invasive nature of the original bill. The political problem for Gov. Bob McDonnell and Lieutenant Gov. Bill Bolling -- both of whom play central roles in the debate on both bills -- is that any time the focus is not on the economy, the Republicans are stepping away from what propelled the GOP to victory in 2009, 2010 and 2011. As Tim Kaine proved during the last two weeks, Virginia Democrats are willing to go on offense over social issues too, changing the dynamic from the days of old.
-- Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind., has entered a new phase of his reelection campaign, and no one realizes this more than he does. Treasurer Richard Mourdock has Club for Growth on his side while the Lugar residency issue has dominated headlines in the state for the past month. It's not surprising then, that we saw Lugar launch his first TV ad this week that goes after Mourdock's record.
The week wasn't all bad for Lugar, as an opinion issued by the attorney general and a ruling from the state Election Commission erased any doubts about the legality of Lugar being registered at a House he no longer owns. But the political damage has been done and opponents are not going to let up on their argument that Lugar is out of touch with the state.
-- You can tell a lot about the shape of a race from a candidate's first TV ad. Sen. Claire McCaskill's, D-Mo., first spot pushed back against Crossroads and other outside groups that have been attacking her. That's her biggest worry right now. The weak GOP field hasn't produced a candidate that has caught McCaskill's public attention yet.
-- A week removed from the arrival of a bombshell story in which a former lover accused Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu of threatening to deport him, Babeu is still standing: His campaign notes that he pulled in $14,000 in online donations in the six days since he held a press conference announcing the he is gay.
But Babeu still faces a steep uphill climb in what is a very conservative district. Further complicating matters this week: The feds are looking into a Hatch Act investigation. And Babeu will have to endure more headlines in the coming weeks about a state investigation into the allegations against him.
hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/02/wul-draft-do-no.php
"... immigration right now is a losing issue for President Obama and Democrats. ... " Immigration remains a Republican strong hold in large part because as shown below in the actual voting that still like younger voters, the hispanic voters do NOT VOTE in significantly large number to impact politics that matter.
For example in a previously black gang ridden, poverty striven southern California city of Compton blacks have been replaced by hispanics where blacks were almost 100% and now hispanics are about 70% but... where it counts, in the voting booth again hispanic voters do NOT VOTE in significantly large number to impact politics that matter. The Compton elected government remains 100% black after many elections when hispanic residents have now a vast majority.
"... immigration right now is a losing issue for President Obama and Democrats. A NBC News/Marist poll in the state showed over two times as many voters in Arizona were "more likely" to support a candidate that backed the state's hardline anti-illegal immigration law as those who would be less likely to do so. While the Hispanic growth in the state is significant, the percentage of those who are registered is relatively low - and there have been few signs of any significant uptick in political participation. ... "
==============================
What We Learned: Auto-Tuned in Michigan
By Hotline Staff
February 25, 2012 | 6:15 PM
Next Tuesday's Michigan Republican presidential primary has brought the rescue of the U.S. auto industry by the Bush and Obama administrations back to the forefront this week, and each side can point to public polling to bolster their position. A new Pew Research Center poll released Thursday showed a majority of Americans think the program was a good thing for the U.S. economy, while a Gallup poll also released Thursday had a slight majority who said they disapprove of this action.
But the polls aren't contradictory -- and they both offer important rhetorical lessons for each party. The Pew poll asked respondents if they thought "loans to General Motors and Chrysler" were good or bad for the economy, while the Gallup poll asked if respondents approved or disapproved of "the financial bailout for U.S. automakers." But in Michigan -- which Republicans hope to put in play in November -- they are more attuned to the issue: In an NBC News/Marist poll released this week, the vast majority of all voters think the program was a good idea, even with the word "bailout" in the question.
-- The White House continues to talk about its ability to contest Arizona, but polling data suggest otherwise -- and underscores the fact that immigration right now is a losing issue for President Obama and Democrats. A NBC News/Marist poll in the state showed over two times as many voters in Arizona were "more likely" to support a candidate that backed the state's hardline anti-illegal immigration law as those who would be less likely to do so. While the Hispanic growth in the state is significant, the percentage of those who are registered is relatively low - and there have been few signs of any significant uptick in political participation.
The numbers also provide a cautionary tale to the party's likely Senate nominee, Richard Carmona, who is an attractive recruit because of his Hispanic heritage, but could lose support from white voters over his opposition to SB 1070. Remember: the law was the driving force behind Gov. Jan Brewer's political success - she looked like a sure loser after ascending to the post, but ended up winning election comfortably by a 12-point margin. There was a good reason why Janet Napolitano didn't run for Senate -- her involvement in the White House's lawsuit against the state immigration law would have handicapped her campaign from the start.
-- The issue of abortion is a balancing act for the GOP in Virginia. Delegate Bob Marshall's so-called "personhood" bill was tabled by the Senate, with the help of some Republican senators, until 2013 so it can be studied more. The controversial ultrasound bill was amended after complaints about the physically invasive nature of the original bill. The political problem for Gov. Bob McDonnell and Lieutenant Gov. Bill Bolling -- both of whom play central roles in the debate on both bills -- is that any time the focus is not on the economy, the Republicans are stepping away from what propelled the GOP to victory in 2009, 2010 and 2011. As Tim Kaine proved during the last two weeks, Virginia Democrats are willing to go on offense over social issues too, changing the dynamic from the days of old.
-- Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind., has entered a new phase of his reelection campaign, and no one realizes this more than he does. Treasurer Richard Mourdock has Club for Growth on his side while the Lugar residency issue has dominated headlines in the state for the past month. It's not surprising then, that we saw Lugar launch his first TV ad this week that goes after Mourdock's record.
The week wasn't all bad for Lugar, as an opinion issued by the attorney general and a ruling from the state Election Commission erased any doubts about the legality of Lugar being registered at a House he no longer owns. But the political damage has been done and opponents are not going to let up on their argument that Lugar is out of touch with the state.
-- You can tell a lot about the shape of a race from a candidate's first TV ad. Sen. Claire McCaskill's, D-Mo., first spot pushed back against Crossroads and other outside groups that have been attacking her. That's her biggest worry right now. The weak GOP field hasn't produced a candidate that has caught McCaskill's public attention yet.
-- A week removed from the arrival of a bombshell story in which a former lover accused Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu of threatening to deport him, Babeu is still standing: His campaign notes that he pulled in $14,000 in online donations in the six days since he held a press conference announcing the he is gay.
But Babeu still faces a steep uphill climb in what is a very conservative district. Further complicating matters this week: The feds are looking into a Hatch Act investigation. And Babeu will have to endure more headlines in the coming weeks about a state investigation into the allegations against him.
hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/02/wul-draft-do-no.php