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Post by jeffolie on May 26, 2012 16:51:40 GMT -6
In my opinion the metals trend currently consists of a decline driven by safe haven buying of Dollar debt (ie Treasuries, etc) that increases the value of the Dollar against most all materials and commodities.
As my jeffolie intermediate metals view of this trend is obvious that Politics Matters: " ... Europe imploding may shift the politics away from US boring debt charts....Deficits/debts may fade as an important issue to Independent voters. Europe may implode this Fall...my jeffolie prediction favors late 2013 and now stands at merely a 50% SWAG that the upcoming June elections will explode the EU and a 50% chance of yet another compromise with Germans funding another ECB bailout after the June elections in Europe...'
Metals most likely will create an intermediate term bottom with a high in the Dollar, low in the 'euro'...watch the ECB bailouts for clues to a metals trend change.
Longer term that coming bottom will start a new trend higher in metals as the Dollar concerns come to worry investors and CBs.
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Post by jeffolie on May 27, 2012 10:32:16 GMT -6
I have a timing SWAG (Scientific Wild Ass Guess)
Within 6 months of GREXIT Spain will attempt to blackmail better term for a bailout and fail leading to both Spain and Portugal leaving the euro ... when they leave the euro, I predict a reform of the EU emphasizing the difference between north Europe and the rest of the EU...AT THAT POINT an intermediate low most likely will happen for metals which also will most likely be a high for the Dollar...my jeffolie SWAG remains 50% this FALL and overhwhelming by the end of 2013...I expect desperate measures to save FED Primary Dealers located in Europe by FED 'currency swaps', changing capitalization, MAKING GOLD A TIER 1 ASSET and capital transfer restrictions (not allowing money to leave, attempting to stop withdrawls, capital flight) in the impacted EU countries.
Some banks such as ING DIRECT may be at high risk of capital transfer restrictions (not allowing money to leave, attempting to stop withdrawls, capital flight).
GREXIT = Greece Exit
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Post by jeffolie on Jun 2, 2012 15:42:48 GMT -6
Bottom or just a Bear Market rally?
For now, solvency, credit risk, the ability to pay debts by European countries Spain and Greece drove the financial headlines.
The Dollar index declined ... Gold Spiked U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) NYE: DXY 82.80 Change -0.26 -0.31% Jun 1, 2012
Odd that the Dollar declined as 'safe haven' buying of Treasuries drove down 10 yr notes to record lows plus Gold spiked?
If a High in the Dollar for these political times has been achieved, then an intermediate Gold bottom has been achieved.
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