I am biased as a metals guy who bought my entire amount back in the lows of 2008.
Timing remains very important.
Below consider the timing and time period.
Stocks versus Bonds versus Gold (2010-2012) Last week, I referenced the fact that Bonds had been outperforming stocks for quite some time. Burton Malkiel and Jeremy Siegel continue to doubt this.
Now, if we want to discuss going forward 10 years, well, with rates at 1.5%, bonds are not where I would place my heaviest bets to outperform stocks. But that is what their recent history has been. Indeed, since 1981, long-term government bonds have gained an average of 11.5% per year, handily besting equities. The S&P 500 index gained the 10.8% per year over the same period (1981-2011).
Have a look at the more recent chart above via Bianco Research. It shows the total return for Golds, Treasuries and Equities. Total returns include both dividends for equities and interest payments for bonds.
Post by unlawflcombatnt on Aug 14, 2012 22:20:36 GMT -6
This chart is interesting.
But it doesn't fully encompass the longer-term rise in Gold vs. stocks.
As a reminder, Gold was around $260/oz in 2001. It's now about $1,600/oz in 2012.
In contrast, the Dow has shown very little net change since 2001.
People that have invested in Gold and precious metals have done light-years better than those who've invested in stocks.
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jeffolie: One might short a bull ETF to gain the decay but this requires a margin position subject to changes imposed by the exchanges & brokers
Oct 26, 2013 13:26:07 GMT -6
jeffolie: Holding a stop loss in these algo dominated markets almost always means the algos will hit your stops
Oct 26, 2013 13:20:09 GMT -6
jeffolie: Even so, these leveraged ETFs do not create margin calls nor expiration dates thus allowing one to hold indefinitely
Oct 26, 2013 13:17:52 GMT -6
jeffolie: Yes, the ETF features fading/leveraged decay because the futures and/or options used decay plus the administrative costs rise the decay, declining value ... I accept this as a cost and feature of all ETFs that purchase futures/options to maintain price
Oct 26, 2013 13:15:38 GMT -6
mimzy: jeffolie ~ I've been reading/lurking you for a year or three now and was wondering if your could you explain how you overcome quantum fading/leveraged decay in your ETF short position of the DJIA?
Oct 25, 2013 20:46:26 GMT -6