my jeffolie metals position ... long term holder since 2008 metals crash
Bull long term ... short, intermediate terms do not motivate me.
Short term: metals can gain as long as the EU continues its current politics to bailout Spain creating a stronger euro impacting the Dollar Index to decline ... Dollar declines = higher metals short term; metals also decline often when the entire stock market becomes a bear market which I expect to happen after the coming peak it is approaching ... my long/intermediate term view and prediction has remained for the S&P index to reach 1500 and more precisely but less confidentially to reach 1565, form a top, become a bear market causing stress and decline of metals because of the HFT algorithms and margin, collateral requirements.
Intermediate term: if the EU implodes starting next year as I am predicting, then the Dollar will strenghten as a safe haven against the euro causing metals to suffer as the Dollar Index gains ... this is not an iron clade relationship but it usually works.
I am a long term metals holder ... our entire family's "investment funds" remains 100% in in physical metals, collectables, etc
I do not trade our physical metals ... I expect that the Dollar will eventually be in crisis pushing the ratio of gold to stocks to par for example $4000 gold and 4000 DJIA ... then I will switch out of metals to stocks.
When ? My guess is for an economic bottom about 2016 but I am not a cycles advocate; instead I advocate that Politics Matters because it requires govt to create inflation or deflation through various forms of money, credit creation and laws, regulations, etc.
Last Edit: Oct 17, 2012 15:30:54 GMT -6 by jeffolie
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Apr 14, 2021 1:41:25 GMT -6
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jeffolie: One might short a bull ETF to gain the decay but this requires a margin position subject to changes imposed by the exchanges & brokers
Oct 26, 2013 13:26:07 GMT -6
jeffolie: Holding a stop loss in these algo dominated markets almost always means the algos will hit your stops
Oct 26, 2013 13:20:09 GMT -6
jeffolie: Even so, these leveraged ETFs do not create margin calls nor expiration dates thus allowing one to hold indefinitely
Oct 26, 2013 13:17:52 GMT -6
jeffolie: Yes, the ETF features fading/leveraged decay because the futures and/or options used decay plus the administrative costs rise the decay, declining value ... I accept this as a cost and feature of all ETFs that purchase futures/options to maintain price
Oct 26, 2013 13:15:38 GMT -6
mimzy: jeffolie ~ I've been reading/lurking you for a year or three now and was wondering if your could you explain how you overcome quantum fading/leveraged decay in your ETF short position of the DJIA?
Oct 25, 2013 20:46:26 GMT -6