Post by jeffolie on Apr 13, 2013 10:25:43 GMT -6
Yens to the Dollar long term chart, war coming? or just the currency war?
The massive Politics Matters shift in Japan to double its currency in circulation also conforms to my long term prediction of the Dollar being a 'safe haven' until a 'political event' motivates change.
Not much has changed from my long term predictions ... most came true including govt inflation numbers, the metals trends, the Dollar trend, the stock market trend.
my jeffolie view: most likely silver will decline below $25 and most likely the seasonal lows will again be about August ... the metals will regain strength when the Dollar crisis begins ... the Dollar crisis will follow only after the EU reorganizes most likely along the lines of the North EU vs the South EU with an impact on the euro later in this year or Spring of 2014 ... the Dollar will be strong as a safe haven, hurting metals priced in Dollars.
"... For some reason, no-one seems to want to talk about how Korekiyo Takahashi's policies ended. Here's the rest of the story.... Eventually Japan went into war that ended in hyperinflation and total destruction of the Japanese economy. Praising the economic policies of Takahashi is quite a bit like praising the economic policies of Hitler. It's totally absurd. ... "
War with Japan might happen as a rhyme of history but the instigator more likely would be North Korea or China rather than the aging Japan. Both N Korea and China have political anger with Japan. Japan's defense of the petroleum rich islands or being a scapegoat for N Korea with newly effective intermediate missles possibly nuke tipped might accidentally result in Japan being attacked.
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2.bp.blogspot.com/-3_SibytuD2U/UWhlWrye8CI/AAAAAAAAVlk/MtPtf4gZgoQ/s1600/Yen+per+US$.png
April 12, 2013 3:07 PM
Inspired By Economic Madness
Do not expect any government or central bank to learn much from history, especially Japan and especially now.
For example, please consider this bit of "inspirational madness": Bank of Japan Finds Inspiration in a 1930s Iconoclast.
The bank’s governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, announced a “new dimension in monetary easing,” vowing to double the purchases of government bonds and expand the monetary base. The BOJ also formally adopted a previously announced two-year target of 2 percent inflation. Quantitative easing will be the bank’s core business for the near future, a strategy that resembles the Federal Reserve’s response to the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
The BOJ’s actions also mark a return, at least partly, to the unorthodox efforts of Japan’s finance minister in the early 1930s, Korekiyo Takahashi, who was praised by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke for “brilliantly rescuing Japan from the Great Depression through reflationary policies.”
Takahashi has recently received renewed attention from economists, historians and policy makers. In Japan, the number of popular publications on him suggests a Takahashi following. A biography by Richard Smethurst, “From Foot Soldier to Finance Minister: Takahashi Korekiyo, Japan’s Keynes,” became an academic hit when it was published in Japanese in 2010.
Rest of the Story
My friend Pater Tenebrarum on the Acting Man blog shared these thoughts via email.
"For some reason, no-one seems to want to talk about how Korekiyo Takahashi's policies ended. Here's the rest of the story.... Eventually Japan went into war that ended in hyperinflation and total destruction of the Japanese economy. Praising the economic policies of Takahashi is quite a bit like praising the economic policies of Hitler. It's totally absurd."
Yet here we are in the throes of Keynesian absurdity.
Historical Yen Chart
click 4 chart 2.bp.blogspot.com/-3_SibytuD2U/UWhlWrye8CI/AAAAAAAAVlk/MtPtf4gZgoQ/s1600/Yen+per+US$.png
More Revised History
While on the subject of revisionist history, I would like to point out a correction to a statement expressed by Wolfgang Münchau in Eurointelligence Founder Wolfgang Münchau, Once a Staunch Euro Supporter, Now Welcomes the Anti-Euro Party "Alternative for Germany".
Münchau stated "Thatcher's Industry Minister Nicholas Ridley said in 1990 in a careless interview in The Spectator that the planned monetary union was a German conspiracy with the aim of seizing power in Europe."
Tenebrarum responds "This was and is nonsense. Germany was practically forced into the euro by the French, who wanted to emasculate the Bundesbank. They threatened to hold back their support of German reunification if Germany didn't agree with adopting the euro."
globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/04/inspired-by-and-in-praise-of-economic.html
The massive Politics Matters shift in Japan to double its currency in circulation also conforms to my long term prediction of the Dollar being a 'safe haven' until a 'political event' motivates change.
Not much has changed from my long term predictions ... most came true including govt inflation numbers, the metals trends, the Dollar trend, the stock market trend.
my jeffolie view: most likely silver will decline below $25 and most likely the seasonal lows will again be about August ... the metals will regain strength when the Dollar crisis begins ... the Dollar crisis will follow only after the EU reorganizes most likely along the lines of the North EU vs the South EU with an impact on the euro later in this year or Spring of 2014 ... the Dollar will be strong as a safe haven, hurting metals priced in Dollars.
"... For some reason, no-one seems to want to talk about how Korekiyo Takahashi's policies ended. Here's the rest of the story.... Eventually Japan went into war that ended in hyperinflation and total destruction of the Japanese economy. Praising the economic policies of Takahashi is quite a bit like praising the economic policies of Hitler. It's totally absurd. ... "
War with Japan might happen as a rhyme of history but the instigator more likely would be North Korea or China rather than the aging Japan. Both N Korea and China have political anger with Japan. Japan's defense of the petroleum rich islands or being a scapegoat for N Korea with newly effective intermediate missles possibly nuke tipped might accidentally result in Japan being attacked.
=====================================
2.bp.blogspot.com/-3_SibytuD2U/UWhlWrye8CI/AAAAAAAAVlk/MtPtf4gZgoQ/s1600/Yen+per+US$.png
April 12, 2013 3:07 PM
Inspired By Economic Madness
Do not expect any government or central bank to learn much from history, especially Japan and especially now.
For example, please consider this bit of "inspirational madness": Bank of Japan Finds Inspiration in a 1930s Iconoclast.
The bank’s governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, announced a “new dimension in monetary easing,” vowing to double the purchases of government bonds and expand the monetary base. The BOJ also formally adopted a previously announced two-year target of 2 percent inflation. Quantitative easing will be the bank’s core business for the near future, a strategy that resembles the Federal Reserve’s response to the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
The BOJ’s actions also mark a return, at least partly, to the unorthodox efforts of Japan’s finance minister in the early 1930s, Korekiyo Takahashi, who was praised by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke for “brilliantly rescuing Japan from the Great Depression through reflationary policies.”
Takahashi has recently received renewed attention from economists, historians and policy makers. In Japan, the number of popular publications on him suggests a Takahashi following. A biography by Richard Smethurst, “From Foot Soldier to Finance Minister: Takahashi Korekiyo, Japan’s Keynes,” became an academic hit when it was published in Japanese in 2010.
Rest of the Story
My friend Pater Tenebrarum on the Acting Man blog shared these thoughts via email.
"For some reason, no-one seems to want to talk about how Korekiyo Takahashi's policies ended. Here's the rest of the story.... Eventually Japan went into war that ended in hyperinflation and total destruction of the Japanese economy. Praising the economic policies of Takahashi is quite a bit like praising the economic policies of Hitler. It's totally absurd."
Yet here we are in the throes of Keynesian absurdity.
Historical Yen Chart
click 4 chart 2.bp.blogspot.com/-3_SibytuD2U/UWhlWrye8CI/AAAAAAAAVlk/MtPtf4gZgoQ/s1600/Yen+per+US$.png
More Revised History
While on the subject of revisionist history, I would like to point out a correction to a statement expressed by Wolfgang Münchau in Eurointelligence Founder Wolfgang Münchau, Once a Staunch Euro Supporter, Now Welcomes the Anti-Euro Party "Alternative for Germany".
Münchau stated "Thatcher's Industry Minister Nicholas Ridley said in 1990 in a careless interview in The Spectator that the planned monetary union was a German conspiracy with the aim of seizing power in Europe."
Tenebrarum responds "This was and is nonsense. Germany was practically forced into the euro by the French, who wanted to emasculate the Bundesbank. They threatened to hold back their support of German reunification if Germany didn't agree with adopting the euro."
globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/04/inspired-by-and-in-praise-of-economic.html