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Post by jeffolie on May 16, 2013 11:14:39 GMT -6
Jobs ... RI real estate investment ... construction, remodelling, rehab The failure of the lumber market, the jump in jobless claims signal that JOBS ARE GONE. Why? This source has been Type 1 investors creating rental income. The profits are gone. The competition from higher 10 year Treasury rates hurts as well. The higher rates hurt borrowing for this play as well. The FED can not relent, stop buying bonds to suppress rates. POMOs are heavily scheduled almost every day remaining in May. If this source for TRICKLE DOWN JOBS is gone, then only the type 1 consumer buying of new cars, etc remains ... this may be too little ... the FED may be PUSHING ON A STRINGSeasonality applies to coincide with this increasing the chance of a Summer Swoon in the economy depressing materials, metals, rates, jobs================================== Multifamily Starts Suffer Biggest Monthly Plunge Since 2006: Is The REO-To-Rent "Recovery" Dead? 05/16/2013 It is no secret that in addition to the well-known phenomenon of "foreclosure stuffing", one of the primary drivers of the artificial housing "recovery" has been the surge of hedge funds and asset managers into purchases of rental units courtesy of near-zero cost REO-to-rent federal lending facilities, which have taken out distressed inventory from the market in hopes of converting it into rental. This has manifested in a surge in multi-family starts which have been the primary driver behind the rise of housing starts in the past several years, even with single-family units barely moving higher. All this despite Och Ziff making the case loud and clear late last year, that the days of profitability of this strategy have come and gone. Today we got the first confirmation that other asset managers may have finally given up on the rental conversion strategy, following the observed collapse in multi-family housing starts which crashed from 376K to 234K in April (the lowest since last summer), a drop of 142K and the worst monthly drop since 2006 when the housing market had once again peaked and was about to undergo a very serious correction. www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/05/Multifam%20Units.jpgSo does the above plunge indicate that this most important, if very much artificial legs of the housing (non) recovery stool, was just broken? And if so, does this mean that the US consumer is indeed so tapped out that hedge funds can no longer arb the rent-to-own cap-to-mortage rate conversion? If so, this is very bad news for all those who have been, incorrectly, proclaiming a housing recovery. www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-16/multifamily-starts-suffer-biggest-monthly-plunge-2006-reo-rent-recovery-dead
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on May 16, 2013 11:50:24 GMT -6
It's very good news for that 43% of Americans who don't own a home--especially those who'd like to buy 1 some day.
The Fed's actions have done nothing but keep asset prices high. But it's done nothing to create jobs, or new wealth.
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Post by jeffolie on May 16, 2013 11:59:03 GMT -6
It's very good news for that 43% of Americans who don't own a home--especially those who'd like to buy 1 some day. The Fed's actions have done nothing but keep asset prices high. But it's done nothing to create jobs, or new wealth. Truth !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Post by jeffolie on May 16, 2013 12:00:30 GMT -6
May 16, 2013 Housing Starts decline sharply in April to 853,000 SAAR by Bill McBride on 5/16/2013 From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: Privately-owned housing starts in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 853,000. This is 16.5 percent below the revised March estimate of 1,021,000, but is 13.1 percent above the April 2012 rate of 754,000. Single-family housing starts in April were at a rate of 610,000; this is 2.1 percent below the revised March figure of 623,000. The April rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 234,000. Building Permits: Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,017,000. This is 14.3 percent above the revised March rate of 890,000 and is 35.8 percent above the April 2012 estimate of 749,000. Single-family authorizations in April were at a rate of 617,000; this is 3.0 percent above the revised March figure of 599,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 374,000 in April. 2.bp.blogspot.com/-RG3CC-8uA04/UZTUd6HoURI/AAAAAAAAaT8/Pbag4zkEhqc/s1600/StartsApril2013.jpgThe first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years. Multi-family starts (red, 2+ units) decreased sharply in April following the sharp increase in March (Multi-family is volatile month-to-month). Single-family starts (blue) declined to 610,000 in April (Note: March was revised up from 619 thousand to 623 thousand). 2.bp.blogspot.com/-B-3ZCRrMShU/UZTUgVhjazI/AAAAAAAAaUE/Eb2bbilHQtc/s1600/StartsLongApril2013.jpgThe second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968. This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and that housing starts have been generally increasing after moving sideways for about two years and a half years. This was well below expectations of 969 thousand starts in April, mostly due to the sharp decrease in multi-family starts. Total starts in April were only up 13.1% from April 2012; however single family starts were up 20.8% year-over-year. I'll have more later ... www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/05/housing-starts-decline-sharply-in-april.html
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Post by jeffolie on May 22, 2013 11:33:02 GMT -6
Jobs ... RI real estate investment ... construction, remodelling, rehab The failure of the lumber market, the jump in jobless claims signal that JOBS ARE GONE. Why? This source has been Type 1 investors creating rental income. The profits are gone. The competition from higher 10 year Treasury rates hurts as well. The higher rates hurt borrowing for this play as well. The FED can not relent, stop buying bonds to suppress rates. POMOs are heavily scheduled almost every day remaining in May. If this source for TRICKLE DOWN JOBS is gone, then only the type 1 consumer buying of new cars, etc remains ... this may be too little ... the FED may be PUSHING ON A STRINGSeasonality applies to coincide with this increasing the chance of a Summer Swoon in the economy depressing materials, metals, rates, jobs================================== Multifamily Starts Suffer Biggest Monthly Plunge Since 2006: Is The REO-To-Rent "Recovery" Dead? 05/16/2013 It is no secret that in addition to the well-known phenomenon of "foreclosure stuffing", one of the primary drivers of the artificial housing "recovery" has been the surge of hedge funds and asset managers into purchases of rental units courtesy of near-zero cost REO-to-rent federal lending facilities, which have taken out distressed inventory from the market in hopes of converting it into rental. This has manifested in a surge in multi-family starts which have been the primary driver behind the rise of housing starts in the past several years, even with single-family units barely moving higher. All this despite Och Ziff making the case loud and clear late last year, that the days of profitability of this strategy have come and gone. Today we got the first confirmation that other asset managers may have finally given up on the rental conversion strategy, following the observed collapse in multi-family housing starts which crashed from 376K to 234K in April (the lowest since last summer), a drop of 142K and the worst monthly drop since 2006 when the housing market had once again peaked and was about to undergo a very serious correction. www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/05/Multifam%20Units.jpgSo does the above plunge indicate that this most important, if very much artificial legs of the housing (non) recovery stool, was just broken? And if so, does this mean that the US consumer is indeed so tapped out that hedge funds can no longer arb the rent-to-own cap-to-mortage rate conversion? If so, this is very bad news for all those who have been, incorrectly, proclaiming a housing recovery. www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-16/multifamily-starts-suffer-biggest-monthly-plunge-2006-reo-rent-recovery-dead " ... Mortgage Applications Have Biggest May Collapse Since Financial Crisis ... " Jobs ... RI real estate investment ... construction, remodelling, rehab The failure of the lumber market, the jump in jobless claims signal that JOBS ARE GONE. Why? This source has been Type 1 investors creating rental income. The profits are gone. The competition from higher 10 year Treasury rates hurts as well. The higher rates hurt borrowing for this play as well. The FED can not relent, stop buying bonds to suppress rates. POMOs are heavily scheduled almost every day remaining in May. If this source for TRICKLE DOWN JOBS is gone, then only the type 1 consumer buying of new cars, etc remains ... this may be too little ... the FED may be PUSHING ON A STRINGSeasonality applies to coincide with this increasing the chance of a Summer Swoon in the economy depressing materials, metals, rates, jobs================================== Mortgage Applications Have Biggest May Collapse Since Financial Crisis05/22/2013 It seems that the recent rise in interest rates, instead of the typical (pre-depression) behavioral tendency to make people nervous and rush to lock in low rates, has once again stalled any hope of an organic housing recovery occurring. While the reams of hard data show that the housing recovery remains a fast-money investment-driven enigma (here, here, and here) - as opposed to real confidence-driven house-buying; we are still told day after day that housing is the backbone of the economy (despite construction jobs languishing and affordability plunging again). The fact of the matter is that the last 2 weeks have seen mortgage applications plunge at their fastest rate for this time of year (a typically busy time) since the financial crisis began. But that doesn't matter because housing must be recovering because the homebuilder ETF is up 2% today... January and February we saw the rate rises (blue line dropping) spark a renewed (more behaviorally normal) interest in locking in low rates and buying... but since then the relationshio has invferted once again as the Bernanke put on bonds has now found its way into the real world. The last 2 weeks have seen rates rise and mortgage apps plunge... www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/05/20130522_mba.jpgat the fastest rate for this time of year since the crisis began... www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/05/20130522_mba1.jpg What could possibly go wrong? Charts: Bloomberg www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-22/mortgage-applications-have-biggest-may-collapse-financial-crisis
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