Post by unlawflcombatnt on Jan 10, 2007 2:14:15 GMT -6
Evidence continues to mount that our economy may be in for more than just a "soft landing." Below are several of the weekly market predictions from an article from "www.thestreet.com" by Doug Kass titled "10 Rumors That Could Rock Stocks"
"Active Trader Update
Kass: 10 Rumors That Could Rock Stocks
By Doug Kass
Street Insight Contributor
1/5/2007 9:47 AM EST
URL: www.thestreet.com/markets/activetraderupdate/10330882.html
This column was originally published on Street Insight on Jan. 5 at 8 a.m. EST. It's being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com....
The low-end cellular-phone market has been jammed with inventory as demand erodes. Guidance will be lowered by the leading manufacturers as margins erode and average selling prices continue to fall.....The high end is no better, as an all-out post-holiday price war seems to be developing.....
Personal computer retail sales have fallen off dramatically in Japan during the month of December. Dell (DELL) will shortly guide down earnings expectations for the first quarter of 2007, in part because Vista (the release of the business version of Vista has come and gone) has started out slowly....
Microsoft (MSFT) is coming under scrutiny for sending out free AMD-equipped Acer laptops preloaded with Vista to prominent technology bloggers in an apparent effort to get press. APC magazine journalist Dan Warne writes that "whatever the subtleties of the offer were, it comes across as nothing more than a bribe, and that is a very bad look for Microsoft....
More signs of an imbalance in the residential real estate market are appearing. For example, there's been a surge in vacant homes because of foreclosures, owners who bought another home and await sale of their first home, and homes that are for rent because they can't be sold. In certain regions of the country, such as California, vacant homes represent nearly 50% of annualized sales (triple the levels of four years ago)....
A medium-sized private homebuilder and two more prominent subprime mortgage originators/servicers will shortly announce bankruptcy....
HSBC (HBC) is considering the sale of its Household Finance subsidiary because of the hemorrhaging of profits in its mortgage business....
The falloff in subprime lending and the tightening of standards at traditional originators has caught the eye of the now Democrat-controlled House. There will be an attempt by the Democrats to introduce legislation that will subsidize first-time homebuyers, who because of affordability issues and less availability of subprime loans are having trouble getting mortgage financing....
The dramatic drop in prices in the energy complex coupled with a general decline in commodity prices will reverberate in the hedge fund market over the next month, as at least three large funds have each experienced $1 billion-plus losses....
Retailers -- caught with unexpectedly high inventories -- are worried about the first quarter's profitability and will announce initiatives (and create incentives) that will encourage consumers to spend their gift cards quickly. (For example, Home Depot (HD) recently announced that it is offering to donate 5% of the gift card value of all gift cards redeemed by Jan. 28 to help build and maintain USO centers.)...
Doug Kass is founder and president of Seabreeze Partners Management, Inc., and the general partner and investment manager of Seabreeze Partners Short LP and Seabreeze Partners Short Offshore Fund, Ltd. Until 1996, he was senior portfolio manager at Omega Advisors, a $4 billion investment partnership."
"Active Trader Update
Kass: 10 Rumors That Could Rock Stocks
By Doug Kass
Street Insight Contributor
1/5/2007 9:47 AM EST
URL: www.thestreet.com/markets/activetraderupdate/10330882.html
This column was originally published on Street Insight on Jan. 5 at 8 a.m. EST. It's being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com....
The low-end cellular-phone market has been jammed with inventory as demand erodes. Guidance will be lowered by the leading manufacturers as margins erode and average selling prices continue to fall.....The high end is no better, as an all-out post-holiday price war seems to be developing.....
Personal computer retail sales have fallen off dramatically in Japan during the month of December. Dell (DELL) will shortly guide down earnings expectations for the first quarter of 2007, in part because Vista (the release of the business version of Vista has come and gone) has started out slowly....
Microsoft (MSFT) is coming under scrutiny for sending out free AMD-equipped Acer laptops preloaded with Vista to prominent technology bloggers in an apparent effort to get press. APC magazine journalist Dan Warne writes that "whatever the subtleties of the offer were, it comes across as nothing more than a bribe, and that is a very bad look for Microsoft....
More signs of an imbalance in the residential real estate market are appearing. For example, there's been a surge in vacant homes because of foreclosures, owners who bought another home and await sale of their first home, and homes that are for rent because they can't be sold. In certain regions of the country, such as California, vacant homes represent nearly 50% of annualized sales (triple the levels of four years ago)....
A medium-sized private homebuilder and two more prominent subprime mortgage originators/servicers will shortly announce bankruptcy....
HSBC (HBC) is considering the sale of its Household Finance subsidiary because of the hemorrhaging of profits in its mortgage business....
The falloff in subprime lending and the tightening of standards at traditional originators has caught the eye of the now Democrat-controlled House. There will be an attempt by the Democrats to introduce legislation that will subsidize first-time homebuyers, who because of affordability issues and less availability of subprime loans are having trouble getting mortgage financing....
The dramatic drop in prices in the energy complex coupled with a general decline in commodity prices will reverberate in the hedge fund market over the next month, as at least three large funds have each experienced $1 billion-plus losses....
Retailers -- caught with unexpectedly high inventories -- are worried about the first quarter's profitability and will announce initiatives (and create incentives) that will encourage consumers to spend their gift cards quickly. (For example, Home Depot (HD) recently announced that it is offering to donate 5% of the gift card value of all gift cards redeemed by Jan. 28 to help build and maintain USO centers.)...
Doug Kass is founder and president of Seabreeze Partners Management, Inc., and the general partner and investment manager of Seabreeze Partners Short LP and Seabreeze Partners Short Offshore Fund, Ltd. Until 1996, he was senior portfolio manager at Omega Advisors, a $4 billion investment partnership."