Post by unlawflcombatnt on Jan 12, 2007 17:29:23 GMT -6
1/12/07
Today's Retail Sales growth is another testament to the government's ability to "create" economic growth from statistical manipulation. As usual, most of the so-called "growth came from downward revision of previously published statistics by the U.S. Census Bureau.
December's Retail Sales increase of +0.9% was "better" than expected. However, a review of previous statistics shows what the source of most of this pseudo-growth was--downward revision of previous months' stats, making December's increase appear larger than it actually was.
Review of "Briefing.com's" report from today (1/12/07), with the preliminary report from less than 12 hours earlier, shows a downward revision of both November's and October's totals. This can be seen in the graphic below comparing the current report with the previous report. The current report is on the top. The previous day's report and estimate is on the bottom. The previous numbers are also inserted next to the current numbers in parenthesis and italics.
November's originally published Retail Sales increase of +1.0% was downwardly revised to only +0.6%. October's initial Retail Sales decline of only -0.1% was worse at -0.2%. On a 2-month basis alone, that's a subtraction of 0.5% in growth of Retail Sales.
Worse still, however, was the downward revision in Durable Goods-Building Materials. The originally posted +1.8% increase for November was downwardly revised a whopping 2.3% to -0.5%. October's Durable Goods-Building material was also revised downward a huge 1.3%, from the original +0.5% down to a -0.9%.
Though these revisions have obscured much weaker growth than being claimed, it's still only part of the story. In fact, official numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau show more extensive and longer-standing manipulation. Comparing the original numbers for Retail Sales for August (posted in September) with current numbers, there has been almost no growth at all. August's originally posted, seasonally adjusted Retail Sales was $368.233 billion, compared with December's $369.633 billion. This is a 4-month increase of only +0.4%. Comparing with July's initially posted $367.941 billion, the 5-month increase in sales has been only +0.52%. That makes the annualized growth in Retail Sales over the last 5 months only +1.25%.
These changes can seen below in the composite chart taken from the monthly Retail Sales reports from the U.S. Census Bureau. The key numbers are underlined in red.
Also apparent from the above chart is the downward revision of November's initially posted Retail Sales numbers. If the original November numbers are used, the Retail Sales growth for December is only +0.27%, not +0.9% as currently posted.
Note also the currently reported numbers comparing December 2006 with December 2005. (uppermost part of the chart above). December 2006's $423.874 billion is 3.6% greater than December 2005's $409.063 billion in current, non-inflation adjusted dollars. When adjusting for an annual 2.0%
Consumer Price Index increase, the percent is reduced to a real increase of only +1.6%.
Given that consumer spending is 70% of our GDP, and the driving force of economic growth, a 1.6% real increase in Retail Sales is evidence of a slowing economy, and a rapidly slowing one at that.
Today's Retail Sales growth is another testament to the government's ability to "create" economic growth from statistical manipulation. As usual, most of the so-called "growth came from downward revision of previously published statistics by the U.S. Census Bureau.
December's Retail Sales increase of +0.9% was "better" than expected. However, a review of previous statistics shows what the source of most of this pseudo-growth was--downward revision of previous months' stats, making December's increase appear larger than it actually was.
Review of "Briefing.com's" report from today (1/12/07), with the preliminary report from less than 12 hours earlier, shows a downward revision of both November's and October's totals. This can be seen in the graphic below comparing the current report with the previous report. The current report is on the top. The previous day's report and estimate is on the bottom. The previous numbers are also inserted next to the current numbers in parenthesis and italics.
November's originally published Retail Sales increase of +1.0% was downwardly revised to only +0.6%. October's initial Retail Sales decline of only -0.1% was worse at -0.2%. On a 2-month basis alone, that's a subtraction of 0.5% in growth of Retail Sales.
Worse still, however, was the downward revision in Durable Goods-Building Materials. The originally posted +1.8% increase for November was downwardly revised a whopping 2.3% to -0.5%. October's Durable Goods-Building material was also revised downward a huge 1.3%, from the original +0.5% down to a -0.9%.
Though these revisions have obscured much weaker growth than being claimed, it's still only part of the story. In fact, official numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau show more extensive and longer-standing manipulation. Comparing the original numbers for Retail Sales for August (posted in September) with current numbers, there has been almost no growth at all. August's originally posted, seasonally adjusted Retail Sales was $368.233 billion, compared with December's $369.633 billion. This is a 4-month increase of only +0.4%. Comparing with July's initially posted $367.941 billion, the 5-month increase in sales has been only +0.52%. That makes the annualized growth in Retail Sales over the last 5 months only +1.25%.
These changes can seen below in the composite chart taken from the monthly Retail Sales reports from the U.S. Census Bureau. The key numbers are underlined in red.
Also apparent from the above chart is the downward revision of November's initially posted Retail Sales numbers. If the original November numbers are used, the Retail Sales growth for December is only +0.27%, not +0.9% as currently posted.
Note also the currently reported numbers comparing December 2006 with December 2005. (uppermost part of the chart above). December 2006's $423.874 billion is 3.6% greater than December 2005's $409.063 billion in current, non-inflation adjusted dollars. When adjusting for an annual 2.0%
Consumer Price Index increase, the percent is reduced to a real increase of only +1.6%.
Given that consumer spending is 70% of our GDP, and the driving force of economic growth, a 1.6% real increase in Retail Sales is evidence of a slowing economy, and a rapidly slowing one at that.