Post by unlawflcombatnt on Jan 18, 2007 17:26:35 GMT -6
In reviewing the Bureau of Labor Statistics chart on Employment-to-Population, I noticed an interesting pattern. The Employment-to-Population ratio always declines in a recession, and always recovers to it's pre-recession level or better when the recession is over. This can clearly be seen during the Reagan recession in the early 80's, as well as the Bush I recession in the late 80's to early 90's. In fact, in both of those cases the employment-to-population ratio ultimately rose to an even higher level than it had ever been previously.
Yet there is an "apparent" exception to this pattern: the Bush II recession and the alleged "recovery." The employment-to-population ratio reached a new high under Clinton. It was at 64.4% when Clinton left office in January 2001. It had dropped to 62.4% by December of 2002. It reached its lowest level of 62.0% in September of 2003 (while we were supposedly experiencing a recovery). By December of 2004, it was still at only 62.4%, the same level it had been at 2 years earlier. By December of 2005, 3 years into our "recovery, it had only risen to 62.8%. By the end of 2006, it had risen to 63.4%. This is still 1% below what it was before the recession started. Below is a chart from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showing the employment-population ratios since 1970.
Have we really "recovered" from the recession? Is this really the sign of a "booming" economy? Based on comparison with historic pre- & post- recession ratios, we still haven't fully recovered from the 2001 recession. And by everyone's admission, the economy is slowing down at present. Based on historic changes in employment-population ratios, the economy is slowing down before full recovery from the 2001 recession.
Those tax cuts sure helped, didn't they? And outsourcing has certainly done wonders for our economy, hasn't it.
Yet there is an "apparent" exception to this pattern: the Bush II recession and the alleged "recovery." The employment-to-population ratio reached a new high under Clinton. It was at 64.4% when Clinton left office in January 2001. It had dropped to 62.4% by December of 2002. It reached its lowest level of 62.0% in September of 2003 (while we were supposedly experiencing a recovery). By December of 2004, it was still at only 62.4%, the same level it had been at 2 years earlier. By December of 2005, 3 years into our "recovery, it had only risen to 62.8%. By the end of 2006, it had risen to 63.4%. This is still 1% below what it was before the recession started. Below is a chart from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showing the employment-population ratios since 1970.
Have we really "recovered" from the recession? Is this really the sign of a "booming" economy? Based on comparison with historic pre- & post- recession ratios, we still haven't fully recovered from the 2001 recession. And by everyone's admission, the economy is slowing down at present. Based on historic changes in employment-population ratios, the economy is slowing down before full recovery from the 2001 recession.
Those tax cuts sure helped, didn't they? And outsourcing has certainly done wonders for our economy, hasn't it.