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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Mar 6, 2007 16:53:54 GMT -6
January's Factory Orders declined 5.6%. This was even more than the huge 5% decline that was predicted. The previous drop in Durable Orders was revised downward from it's previous decline of -7.8% to a whopping -8.7%. These numbers are in seasonally-adjusted numbers, taking into account normal monthly declines. (The actual, non-seasonally manipulated numbers show an even larger decline.) January's decline in Factory Orders and Durable Goods Orders is NOT an isolated blip. Since June 2006, Factory Orders have declined -6.0% (for an annualized rate of -12.0%). Durable Orders have declined -6.2% since June 2006 (for an annualized rate of decline of -12.4% over the last 6 months.) Below is a copy of Table 2 from the Census Bureau's report on Factory Orders. The top part is the current report. The bottom part is from 10/4/06, showing the June numbers for both Factory Orders and Durable Orders. Current numbers, last month's numbers, and June 2006's numbers are underlined in red. Clearly manufacturing is in recession. Combined with an obvious Construction and Housing recession, and a subprime & near subprime mortgage collapse, it's difficult to see how this won't lead to an economy-wide recession.
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Post by jeffolie on Mar 6, 2007 20:14:17 GMT -6
It is hard to see how this will create inflation. Wait, it won't. Deflation is coming.
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Post by blueneck on Mar 10, 2007 12:53:15 GMT -6
Recession, smession, US Manufacturing is in depression and has been for most of the Bush 43 years
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