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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Feb 20, 2009 10:24:55 GMT -6
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Post by jeffolie on Apr 6, 2009 10:18:27 GMT -6
I am not worried about today's dramatic PMs declines. I am taking comfort in my intermediate to long term outlook. Short term traders in futures and options on the long side are getting killed today unless they have good stop losses.
There was a time that the PMs had a reputation of having a negative correlation with the DJIA. Later it had a positive correlation with the DJIA. Then the reputation of the PMs was an inflation hedge, but that became a mediocre relationship. Now with little inflation gold has been hitting new highs and then backing off. At times, gold seemed to have an inverse relationship with the Dollar but not recently.
For quite a while now, I have come to believe that the central banks manipulate the PMs, especially gold.
What is clear to me is that hyperinflation destroys the currency while PMs survive well. So regardless of what the DJIA does, my belief is that 2012-13 will see very rapid inflation and perhaps hyperinflation and that PMs will survive well. Only time will tell.
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Apr 6, 2009 10:40:31 GMT -6
I spent some time reviewing the short and long-term trends of the Dow, Gold, Silver, and Platinum.
It appears that Platinum tracks the Dow as much as it does Gold & Silver, if not more so. Though Platinum does conform to the shorter-term peaks and valleys in Gold/Silver prices, over the longer term it tends to fall with the Dow.
Apparently industrial usage is still the biggest driver of Platinum prices, whereas safety and a vehicle for "storage of wealth" seem to be the drivers for Gold & Silver prices.
4 or 5 years ago it appeared that platinum prices tracked other PMs. But this is no longer the case today.
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Post by jeffolie on Apr 6, 2009 10:53:36 GMT -6
"But this is no longer the case today."
Yes, the correlations, relationships change over time.
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Post by graybeard on Apr 6, 2009 11:44:33 GMT -6
Platinum prices probably track new vehicle sales better than any other data, due to their usage in catalytic converters.
Silver has greater industrial use than gold, so will tend to fall more with reduced industrial output.
Gold jewelry is the big user, and it seems to have fallen in its biggest market, India. That may never come back with the price so high.
GB
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Post by jeffolie on Apr 6, 2009 13:00:27 GMT -6
India is actually exporting gold (9 tons) instead of being a big importer.
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Apr 22, 2009 10:55:37 GMT -6
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on May 12, 2009 21:53:13 GMT -6
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Jun 6, 2009 11:08:57 GMT -6
It's recently been made more difficult to transfer Marketwatch charts to this forum. Below is one I did successfully transfer. It compares the Treasury bond fund TRUSX with the price of gold (GLD), silver (SLV), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.  |
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Dec 16, 2009 13:47:40 GMT -6
I guess I just can't get enough of these charts. Below is a 5-year chart comparing the Dow, paper Gold, and TRUSX (TRUSX is Treasury Bond Fund that rises with prices, not the yield, of US Treasuries.)  ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=%5EDJI&t=5y&q=l&l=on&z=l&c=GLD,TRUSX&p=s&a=v&p=sSubstitutions can be made in the above link to change both the time and the specific indexes viewed. For example, the time frame of "5y" can be changed to 1d, 5d, 1m-9m, or 1y-10y. Different indexs can be inserted in between "GLD," and "TRUSX", or they can be substitued for either one. For example, "SLV" (paper silver) or "^BKX" (Commercial Bank Index) can be inserted between "GLD," and "TRUSX" or substitued for either. |
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