|
Post by jeffolie on Jan 1, 2011 12:09:20 GMT -6
2011 jeffolie predictions
SCREWFLATION: everything the ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down in value. Taxes, fees, charges, special assessment districts from State, Local, etc governments will rise while services from them will decrease. 50 California cities have ‘crash taxes’ charging to respond to car incidents plus ambulance charges. Energy expenses for homes, cars, electricity will rise compounded by additional taxes and fees. Food prices will rise. Health care/insurance expenses will rise over 10%. College Tuition will rise 5 to 15%. Mortgage/house payments will rise because interest rates will rise. Rents will rise as demand will increase because the rate of evict/repossessing house owners will speed up forcing families to rent that currently have not been paying their mortgages. The ‘average American family’ wealth will decline as saving become exhausted because of the end of jobless benefits for those exceeding 99 weeks grows. The ‘average American family’ wealth will decline for those still owning their homes because house prices will continue to decline. Food Stamp use will make new records every period. I prefer screwflation over stagflation because of the regressive impact on middle and lower class families' standard of living and that they have no investments that rise with inflation or money printing and in fact usually have their wealth tied up in declining or negative home equity while the upper 20% of earners usually have investments that will rise in 2011 outside of their home equity. Screwflation is my top 2011 topic because its 2011 increase impacts the most Americans even while joblessness will grow on a percentage basis.
JOBS: the jobless rate will grow slightly by the end of the year, but the first 3 months will keep pretty much even. The last 3 months will be seasonally adjusted the worst part of the joblessness because of the layoffs from non federal governments, States, Cities, etc. I prefer to use U-6 and it will be 17+% by the end of 2011. New hires will mostly be in India and other ‘cheap ass labor’ countries that are cheaper than China that ignore pollution and decency through corruption and/or bribery.
EUROPEAN CRISIS: the financial crisis will increase ‘austerity’ as retirement ages extend, services are privatized from higher paying government salaries to lower paying private jobs, benefits reduced. Bailouts of European banks will shift low valued debt from the banks to the IMF, FED, ECB, China via ‘swaps’, bond sales, loans, etc. Average European families will have their version of screwflation because their incomes will decline and expenses increase from governments privatizing. Political opposition to incumbents will grow beyond student riots or union actions and result in some governments changing leaders by the end of 2011. The Euro will still exist but at least one country will drop out or exit the ECB. Spain extremely large problems will be handled with bailouts, extending and pretending.
US STATES, CITIES, LOCAL AGENCIES CRISIS: major layoffs by the end of 2011, bills will not be paid, some bonds will default. The FED/Government bailouts will be narrow, focused on specific job titles like police. The FED will buy debt, bonds, etc of STATES, CITIES, and LOCAL AGENCIES.
HOUSING: prices will decline 10+%, the rate of evict/repossessing house owners will speed up forcing families to rent, demand will decline because of declining family formations.
US ECONOMY: ‘GDP’ will rise because of government lying and misrepresenting economic numbers. ‘average American family’ economics will decline from increased joblessness, screwflation, resulting in a lower standard of living for the ‘average American family’.
COMMODITIES: CRB will exceed 370
DOLLAR INDEX: DXY will go below 70
GOLD, SILVER: gold will rise above $1455; silver will rise above $37. A high and wide trading range for gold from over $1500 to below $1300. A high and wide trading range for silver from over $40 to below $27. Use moving averages to stay with the trends both long and short if trading.
STOCKS: A high and wide trading range for DJIA from over 12000 to below 10000. Use moving averages to stay with the trends both long and short if trading.
INTEREST RATES: higher through summer with a decline very late in the year. The 10 year Treasury will reach 4%.
US POLITICS: Gridlock-No major new programs will pass because the House Republicans’ agenda to reduce spending will dominate while the Democratic Senate will block, Obama will compromise to pass raising the debt limit and continuing federal government funding. Palin will lead in Republican polling. Crime will continue its 30 year declining trend.
|
|
|
Post by unlawflcombatnt on Jan 1, 2011 16:15:01 GMT -6
I generally agree with those predictions. I doubt rents will rise much, due to the suppressing effects of unemployment and the massive overbuilding that was also taking place during the housing bubble.
I think there's a fighting chance that Tariffs on China will be imposed. And if not imposed, then seriously considered. The Chinese are absolutely not going to un-peg their currency from ours, and everyone knows it--including Obama, Geithner, and the entire Obama administration. It's just a matter of how long they think they can get away with deceiving and lying to the American public, to protect their rich American outsourcing friends, who's profit margins will shrink from paying Tariffs on their Chinese labor-made products.
I wouldn't even begin to venture a guess on gold and silver prices. There's a large and unknown amount of currency devaluation (and consequent inflation), which is impossible to measure since it's occurring in almost all currencies. This is contributing to the rise in gold and silver prices.
But at the same time, there is also a large amount of speculation in both gold and silver, which is also driving up prices. It's really hard to even speculate which direction this is going to go--i.e., will speculation increase even more, or will people start selling off.
Since the rich are getting richer, along with the additional gains from Obama's reverse-Robin Hood tax cuts, there will certainly be more money in the hands of the wealthy to speculate. At the same time, productive investment opportunities will remain suppressed, as unemployment and wage stagnation suppress the consumer buying power necessary to create productive investment opportunities.
Ben Bernanke is clearly committed to providing rich people with additional taxpayer-supported funding. In the face of declining productive investment opportunities, this adds further fuel to speculative investments. How much of this will go into gold & silver remains a question mark.
Worldwide money and credit creation by Central banks, and the deposition of that money in to the pockets of the highest earners exclusively, will definitely drive up the price of commodities somewhere along the way.
|
|
|
Post by mdub on Jan 4, 2011 22:37:00 GMT -6
I generally agree with your predictions, except that if the Fed prints money to bail out municipalities, you're going to see a huge rise in the prices of gold, silver, oil, and food due to dollar debasement. I also think crime will increase, especially if unemployment benefits are not extended. My neighbor is a cop and he says that crime (especially theft) has risen sharply in the last few years, and that an increasing number of the perpetrators do not fit the stereotype, as they are blue and white collar workers down on their luck.
Anyway, your predictions are better than mine were last year....
|
|
|
Post by mdub on Jan 4, 2011 23:16:36 GMT -6
Here were my projections for 2102. I posted as Michael72 cause I had problems logging in....
"2010 will be a terrible year. I agree with much of what everyone said.
By the end of Q1, it will be obvious that there is no recovery and that we are in a depression, despite the best efforts of the govt and media to deceive the public. The public will lose any trust it had in the govt and MSM and there wiil be a huge flight from the Republicrat parties."
I think I was right about most people realizing that there is no recovery. It certainly feels like a depression for many. But I don't see much flight from the Dems or Repubs. People are still caught in the L/R paradigm. 1/2 point.
"The govt will extend unemployment benefits in an attempt to keep the unemployed from rioting. Despite this, there will be marches for jobs that will eventually lead to riots."
Right on the first part, wrong on the last. Apparently, Americans will tolerate any type of injustice. Short of starvation, the only way to get Americans to take to the streets is to ban beer, porn, fantasy football, junk food, and reality TV. 1/2 point.
"Tent cities will grow across the country." No significant increase. This is largely due to the increase in food stamps and section 8 housing. 0 points. (But how long can the gov't keep the sharade going without significantly devaluing the currency?)
"Foreigners will stop financing our debt, and the Fed will start printing trillions of $ to finance its wars and bankster bailouts." Yes, virtually all debt is now monetized by the Fed. 1 point.
"The govt will use the phony "lap bomber" to take away more civil liberties and to try to keep Americans distracted from the economy." Yes, they used this and the phony Christmas tree bomb incident in Portland to install naked body scanners and molest people in airports. These measures will be expanded to malls, hotels, etc. I don't expect much resistance from most Americans. 1 point.
"Obama's approval rating will go into the 30s." It's curently @ 47%. I have to wonder who these people are. Repubs hate him. Independents are turning away. Even many liberals are upset. Are the polls fudged like all other statistics? 0 points.
"Bombings of Pakistan and Yemen will increase." Yes. Obama has quadrupled drone strikes over Pakistan in his first 2 years compared to Bush's last 2 years. Wikileaks has revealed that we have also been bombing Yemen with drones in the past year. Barry is turning out to be even more of a war criminal than Bush. 1 point.
"America's Israeli puppet government will continue to protect Israel from the rest of the world as it cotinues to steal what remeins of the West Bank from the Palestininas." Yes, that was easy. 1 point.
"Israel and it's puppet in DC will attack Iran, maybe with nuclear weapons." No, thank God. Of course, that possibility still exists, as we have imposed sanctions on Iran for doing nothing wrong. We now know that Saudi Arabia, as well as Israel, has been egging on the US to attack Iran.
|
|
|
Post by unlawflcombatnt on Jan 5, 2011 2:39:18 GMT -6
"Obama's approval rating will go into the 30s." It's curently @ 47%. I have to wonder who these people are. Repubs hate him. Independents are turning away. Even many liberals are upset. Are the polls fudged like all other statistics? 0 points. I've been wondering about this, too. The left, progressives, and populists have had it with Obama. Keith Olbermann is no longer an unqualified fan. Neither is Rachel Maddow's fill-in Chris Hayes. Firedoglake's Jane Hamsher and Jon Walker have pretty much had it with Obama as well. Obama's also taking a lot of hits from non-conservative/non-neocon economists like Michael Hudson, Paul Craig Roberts, Simon Johnson, James Kwak, Peter Morici, Robert Kuttner, Dean Baker, and even Paul Krugman. In fact, Obama is struggling to find economists that actually agree with his pro-bank, pro-plutocrat policies. My take is that the "positive" polls are concocted from highly selected participants, and paid for and/or bribed by the Obama administration to barf up positive results. This jack-ass has ignored everyone in his party and his base--and instead played to Republicans and only to the most plutocratic and Corporatocratic fringe of the Democratic Party--i.e., Bill Clinton, Gene Sperling, Bill Daley, Larry Summer, Robert Rubin, and Austan Ghoulspee. Obama has become tone deaf to his own party--especially the populist-progressive majority. Obama is ripe for a primary challenge.
|
|
|
Post by blueneck on Jan 5, 2011 11:52:10 GMT -6
Rising gasoline prices will throw a wet blanket on the auto industry recovery
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Jan 24, 2011 11:00:17 GMT -6
One of my 2011 jeffolie predictions has already come true (the fall of a PIIGS government...Ireland) and 2 are very close (I predicted DJIA 12000...it is 11,968 as I write this... and silver as low as below $27.00 - it got down to $27.05).
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Jan 24, 2011 14:25:51 GMT -6
Silver is below $27 as I post this...$26.84
another of my 2011 predictions just came true...silver traded below $27.00
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Jan 26, 2011 9:56:12 GMT -6
jeffolie predicts true again...DJIA 12000 in January
........................
My 2011 predictions included: STOCKS: A high and wide trading range for DJIA from over 12000 to below 10000. Use moving averages to stay with the trends both long and short if trading.
Currently the DJIA is trading over 12000.
.................
On de bear's and other forums I predicted that the DJIA would reach 12000 in January 2011.
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Feb 16, 2011 15:17:28 GMT -6
Another part of this 2011 prediction came true today... focused on specific job titles like police. My 2011 jeffolie predictions included: US STATES, CITIES, LOCAL AGENCIES CRISIS: major layoffs by the end of 2011, bills will not be paid, some bonds will default. The FED/Government bailouts will be narrow, focused on specific job titles like police. Read more: unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/in ... z1E9trdvsn ================================================================== On Wednesday, Democrats scored a 228-203 victory to restore almost $300 million for police hiring grants. That amendment, by Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., shifted money from NASA to pay for the move. Rep. Mike Michaud, D-Maine, won a 305-127 vote to restore most of a 40 percent cut to the Economic Development Administration, which issues grants for job-creating projects in congressional districts across the country. news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_congress_spending;_ylt=ArN2aHUVKdl2uKwfGgeFsoGs0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTNrMm9wYTkzBGFzc2V0A2FwLzIwMTEwMjE2L3VzX2NvbmdyZXNzX3NwZW5kaW5nBGNjb2RlA21vc3Rwb3B1bGFyBGNwb3MDMgRwb3MDNgRwdANob21lX2Nva2UEc2VjA3luX3RvcF9zdG9yeQRzbGsDb2JhbWFnb3BidWRn ================ also today....7000 L.A. teacher jobs gone(LA Times)...775 Long Beach teacher jobs gone(Long Beach Press Telegram)...
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Feb 23, 2011 15:59:40 GMT -6
Another portion of my 2011 jeffolie predictions came true: "... Fees Boost Traffic Fines To Aid Budget..." SCREWFLATION: everything the ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down in value. Taxes, fees, charges, special assessment districts from State, Local, etc governments will rise while services from them will decrease. Read more: unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=8394#ixzz1Ep0oOxqLCalifornia Fees Boost Traffic Fines To Aid Budget "We're the ones taking the brunt for everything," said Jachens, 21, a student at California State University, Sacramento. "It's outrageous." Jachens was nabbed by a red-light camera for not making a complete stop at the intersection of Watt Avenue and Fair Oaks Boulevard. Three years ago, the offense would have cost Jachens $371. Now it's $470. www.chrismartenson.com/blog/daily-digest-223-states-seek-ways-solve-budget-woes-debt-relief-egypt-rising-cost-everything/53
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Feb 24, 2011 13:05:15 GMT -6
The " Student Excellence" fee gets my nomination for the stupidest fee name. "... new $94 "Student Excellence" fee at Cal State Long Beach..." Almost all of the $6,600,000 raised for "Student Excellence" is to be spent on sports equipment and maintenance. ======================================================== CAMPUS: $94 levy may raise $6.6M yearly for programs. LONG BEACH - Some students might not think the new $94 "Student Excellence" fee at Cal State Long Beach is so excellent. www.presstelegram.com/news/ci_17467081Another portion of my 2011 jeffolie predictions came true: "... Fees ..." SCREWFLATION: everything the ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down in value. Taxes, fees, charges, special assessment districts from State, Local, etc governments will rise while services from them will decrease.
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Mar 5, 2011 9:49:47 GMT -6
Another of my 2011 jeffolie predictions is true: US POLITICS: Gridlock-No major new programs will pass because the House Republicans’ agenda to reduce spending will dominate while the Democratic Senate will block, Obama will compromise to pass raising the debt limit and continuing federal government funding... =============================== [from LA Times] Obama offers deeper cuts, appeals for budget deal WASHINGTON – President Barack Obama says he's willing to make deeper spending cuts if Congress can compromise on a budget deal that would end the threat of a government shutdown..... news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110305/ap_on_re_us/us_obama
|
|
|
Post by graybeard on Mar 5, 2011 9:59:50 GMT -6
He needs Gov. Scott Wanker's negotiating skills.
GB
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Mar 5, 2011 10:25:18 GMT -6
Another of my 2011 jeffolie predictions is true: JOBS: .... but the first 3 months will keep pretty much even. ===================================== [from NY Times] "....Taken together, the first two months of the year produced growth at about the same pace as last fall...the unemployment rate could rise temporarily in the next few months, as stronger job growth lures some discouraged workers to look for jobs again..." www.nytimes.com/2011/03/05/business/economy/05jobs.html=========================== Here is another quote essentially stating that jobs were even: [from Calculated Risk] "...The BLS reported that payroll employment increased 192,000 in February and that the unemployment rate declined to 8.9%. If we average the last two months together - the 63,000 payroll jobs added in January and the 192,000 payroll jobs in February - there were 127,500 payroll jobs added per month. That is a barely enough to keep up with the growth in the labor force...." www.calculatedriskblog.com/
|
|
|
Post by graybeard on Mar 6, 2011 22:07:34 GMT -6
"..the unemployment rate could rise temporarily in the next few months, as stronger job growth lures some discouraged workers to look for jobs again..."
Uh, what fantasy is that? People who have run out their benefits are just assumed to not be looking. How does anybody know?
GB
|
|
|
Post by waltc on Mar 6, 2011 23:53:35 GMT -6
U6 unemployment still stands at about 16%
The other unemployment figures are bullshit.
What to watch out for this year:
Non - U.S. :
* Islamic nations reverting back to hardline Islam and the ascendency of Shiia Islam in the oil producing states.
Bahrain is the key, if it falls KSA will not be far behind. KSA's demise will be a global game changer and not for the better. If Bahrain stays healthy, the oil game is off the table for now.
But if Bahrain falls along with KSA we will see $150 to $300 a bbl for oil and $5.50+ for a gallon of gas - easy.
In addition it will set off a domino reaction across Europe and the U.S. in terms of inflation and basic food stuff prices.
It will also kill globalization should it occur since it destroys disposable income and consumers use what little buying power for foodstuffs, electricity and gas.
Also the stock market will slowly collapse in the face of skyrocketing oil prices.
Macro trumps micro issues.
What happens in the oil producing states will affect everyone.
Stateside:
*The GOP will continue it's jihad against unions and workers in general and thus destroying any support in 2012.
* Our occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan will continue.
* The MSM will continue to put out mindless happy talk to distract people from their fucked up reality.
* Blue states will continue to implode economically. The suffer the most because they leveraged themselves the most during the real estate boom.
* We'll open the country up to Mexican trucking.
* Obama will neuter ICE so as to make illegal entry easier so as to make businesses and rich people happy. They will also battle any new state law that attempts to make it easy for Law enforcement to detain them.
* Obama will do nothing to stop China from pegging it's currency.
* Beware of Black Swan events. No one and I mean no saw the uprising in the ME coming. This was our first Black Swan of the year and there may be more.
|
|
|
Post by unlawflcombatnt on Mar 7, 2011 2:43:59 GMT -6
In another post I wrote about what a load of crap the "decline" in unemployment is. The Working Age, non-institutionalized population allegedly grew slightly less than 2 million, while the number dropping out of the labor force was over 2.3 million.
So despite an increase in potential workers, the number who dropped out of the labor force was even larger.
These are the numbers the Unemployment Rate is based on. It's pretty much the formula "1 - Employment Rate" = Unemployment Rate.
And that rate is based on the total number of "participating" workers, which excludes all of those who've "dropped out."
So if the working age population increases less than the number dropping out of the labor force, then the total unemployment rate would fall--even if not one single new person was hired.
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Mar 12, 2011 12:59:25 GMT -6
Again, Ireland's politics increased its 'austerity' ECB bailout includes buying PIIGS debt which makes another of my 2011 jeffolie predictions true: "...EUROPEAN CRISIS: the financial crisis will increase ‘austerity’ as retirement ages extend, services are privatized from higher paying government salaries to lower paying private jobs, benefits reduced. Bailouts of European banks will shift low valued debt from the banks to the IMF, FED, ECB, China via ‘swaps’, bond sales, loans, etc...." =========================================================== "....offering the debt-laden Greece a cut in its interest rate ...a fierce dispute over corporate tax — pitting France and Germany on one side against Ireland on the other... Ireland...not been offered a reduction in its interest rate, now about 6 percent....Germany and France to tighten discipline in the euro zone...fund will be extended to allow it to lend its full 440 billion euros ($608 billion). The permanent fund that will replace it in 2013 will grow to 500 billion euros... European Union’s bailout fund will be able to buy bonds on the primary market but not on the secondary one..." "...In clear violation of the “no-bail-out clause” in the Maastricht Treaty, the group voted to allow the ECB to directly purchase sovereign bonds...already stuffed with sovereign bonds. It bought them in the secondary market because buying them in the primary market was against the rules..." globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
|
|
|
Post by beachbumbob on Mar 13, 2011 7:31:39 GMT -6
In another post I wrote about what a load of crap the "decline" in unemployment is. The Working Age, non-institutionalized population allegedly grew slightly less than 2 million, while the number dropping out of the labor force was over 2.3 million. So despite an increase in potential workers, the number who dropped out of the labor force was even larger. These are the numbers the Unemployment Rate is based on. It's pretty much the formula "1 - Employment Rate" = Unemployment Rate. And that rate is based on the total number of "participating" workers, which excludes all of those who've "dropped out." So if the working age population increases less than the number dropping out of the labor force, then the total unemployment rate would fall--even if not one single new person was hired. hi unlawful, I've taken a bit of a hiatus for the past couple years in posting in forums and figure its time to get back into the mix. I beleive if we go back 4-5 years , we all were talking about the future we are living in right now and we were pretty spot on concerning the financial meltdown, the housing bubble, the fraud and corruption that is so pervasive in our culture generally and the world to a similar extent. I work inside a fortune top10 company and I will clearly state that success and reward has nothing to do with brilliance and leadership. What I see day to day pretty much represents the idiotic, inefficient and unproductive mindset of business which is run not much better than government. I will argue that point until time ends. The issues we have aren't defined by government or private entities as everything comes back to human nature. Human nature is mostly based on self serving principles. These inherent qualities rise above politics or economics and when self interest is the motivating factor in our day to day lives so many decisions are made that will not serve the greater good, whether its the shareholder's equity or a neighborhood quality of life. Self interest takes center stage. Now when self interest is aligned with a greater good, the process works out fine. Thats the real issue and where the real effort must be made. Unfortunately this is the most difficult one to achieve as the effects of human nature becomes much more difficult to overcome.
|
|
|
Post by graybeard on Mar 13, 2011 10:08:33 GMT -6
Welcome back, BBB.
I used to believe that competing selfish economic interests would balance out and maintain the success of democracy. No more.
GB
|
|
|
Post by beachbumbob on Mar 13, 2011 14:38:59 GMT -6
Welcome back, BBB. I used to believe that competing selfish economic interests would balance out and maintain the success of democracy. No more. GB I believe that our own desire of fairness always leads us in a direction of being herded like a bunch of cattle for the slaughter. We are programmed to believe that if we operate within the system, work hard, do the right thing and all that nonsense that the social contract would be honored . Here we are 2011 and what is the aftermath of the greatest financial crime? da nada. where are the hundreds if not thousands of bankers and their ilk in prison? Where are the prosecutions of wall street to avenge their rape of mainstreet? da nada. too many are under the illusion we have democracy and freedom. too many believe the MSM and the corporate doublespeak that controls the air waves. fox news is a joke and the rest are barely better. competing self interest implies fairness was at play and it wasn't and nor shall it ever be. we have been warned by fact and fiction. the attempted illumination of the american people by eisenhower of the military industrial complex to huxely and the brave new world and orwell and 1984. We have the govt mechanism controlled and manipulated by those who fear the disruption of their power. What we see in the streets of wisconsin is not much different than what we see in the streets of Egypt. people fighting for their survival. democracy was not such a success but the control of democracy enriched those behind the curtains was overwhlemingly successful. The fight for everyday existence will grow with intensity as basic human needs of shelter, food and water are rationed out. We are watching it unfold as corporations exert complete control in the enronesque mode. water, food, energy, shelter. rights are being evaporated, public advocacy is fading, the message becomes more controlling.
|
|
|
Post by unlawflcombatnt on Mar 13, 2011 16:28:54 GMT -6
hi unlawful, I've taken a bit of a hiatus for the past couple years in posting in forums and figure its time to get back into the mix. I beleive if we go back 4-5 years , we all were talking about the future we are living in right now and we were pretty spot on concerning the financial meltdown, the housing bubble, the fraud and corruption that is so pervasive in our culture generally and the world to a similar extent. I work inside a fortune top10 company and I will clearly state that success and reward has nothing to do with brilliance and leadership. What I see day to day pretty much represents the idiotic, inefficient and unproductive mindset of business which is run not much better than government. I will argue that point until time ends. The issues we have aren't defined by government or private entities as everything comes back to human nature. Human nature is mostly based on self serving principles. These inherent qualities rise above politics or economics and when self interest is the motivating factor in our day to day lives so many decisions are made that will not serve the greater good, whether its the shareholder's equity or a neighborhood quality of life. Self interest takes center stage. Now when self interest is aligned with a greater good, the process works out fine. Thats the real issue and where the real effort must be made. Unfortunately this is the most difficult one to achieve as the effects of human nature becomes much more difficult to overcome. Beachbumbob, Nice to have you back. I appreciate your observations as well. At least one of the functions of Government is ensure, and even directly intervene, when individuals' short-term interests are not aligned with the greater good. One glaring example of self-interest trumping the greater good is seen with mergers, acquisitions, and monopolization of industries. There are few cases where this is really beneficial to the greater good. But concentration in industries does serve the merging companies self-interests, by increasing both pricing power and wage-suppressing power. Though it may be great for the management of the merging/monopolizing parties, it's bad for everyone else. We're supposed to have anti-trust legislation that prevents much of this, but it appears that it is rarely enforced. I'm sure you could give us lots of other examples as well.
|
|
|
Post by beachbumbob on Mar 16, 2011 17:45:46 GMT -6
good to be back unlawful. Yep the system is gamed by and for the elite. Always have and always will be. The illusion has pretty much worn away.
|
|
|
Post by waltc on Mar 17, 2011 0:22:23 GMT -6
ULC
One glaring example of self-interest trumping the greater good is seen with mergers, acquisitions, and monopolization of industries. There are few cases where this is really beneficial to the greater good. But concentration in industries does serve the merging companies self-interests, by increasing both pricing power and wage-suppressing power. Though it may be great for the management of the merging/monopolizing parties, it's bad for everyone else. We're supposed to have anti-trust legislation that prevents much of this, but it appears that it is rarely enforced.
Seen what it did to military aerospace in the 1990's. All the mergers and acquisitions resulted in 2 mega corps that produce over priced junk, killed innovation and frequently collude with one another in price fixing.
It's also why we can't build a successor to the Space Shuttle(Lockheed and Boeing both tried and botched it horribly years back) and why a single fighter costs $300 million.
Even Burt Rutan's company was acquired(by Northrup) and promptly turned it into a step child outfit.
And those sorts of companies don't attract talented engineers anymore. The places are just too unpleasant in terms of corporate culture to be productive. They pay well, but unless you like being a paper shuffling drone...
|
|
|
Post by unlawflcombatnt on Mar 19, 2011 1:18:07 GMT -6
ULC One glaring example of self-interest trumping the greater good is seen with mergers, acquisitions, and monopolization of industries. There are few cases where this is really beneficial to the greater good. But concentration in industries does serve the merging companies self-interests, by increasing both pricing power and wage-suppressing power. Though it may be great for the management of the merging/monopolizing parties, it's bad for everyone else. We're supposed to have anti-trust legislation that prevents much of this, but it appears that it is rarely enforced.
Seen what it did to military aerospace in the 1990's. All the mergers and acquisitions resulted in 2 mega corps that produce over priced junk, killed innovation and frequently collude with one another in price fixing. It's also why we can't build a successor to the Space Shuttle(Lockheed and Boeing both tried and botched it horribly years back) and why a single fighter costs $300 million. That's a good example. I've seen what it does in health insurance and medicine. As more insurance companies and HMOs merge, it increases the pricing/bargaining power of the company, while reducing the bargaining power of consumers (patients) and workers (doctors & nurses.) The end result of this consolidation is that health insurance megaliths drives down compensation for doctors & nurses, at the same time decreasing coverage & benefits for patients. The increased profits give additional money to hire lobbyists to push for more beneficial legislation & policies for health insurance companies (including the allowance of still additional mergers.) The most important employees to an HMO are not its doctors and nurses. It's their attorneys and lobbyists.
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Mar 23, 2011 8:41:58 GMT -6
2011 jeffolie predictions true: property taxes raised, service decline Another portion of my 2011 jeffolie predictions came true: taxes, see "...Property Taxes Reach the Breaking Point..." "....SCREWFLATION: everything the ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down in value. Taxes, fees, charges, special assessment districts from State, Local, etc governments will rise while services from them will decrease...." =============================================================== Real Estate March 22, 2011 Property Taxes Reach the Breaking Point Local governments are raising property taxes to plug budget gaps as home values fall—and voters are getting sick of it It really costs to own a home these days. Not only have home values fallen, leaving nearly one-quarter of residential mortgages under water, but also, local governments around the country have increased property taxes to make up for declining revenue from other sources. Homeowners now give a slightly bigger portion of their earnings to property taxes—which mainly go to public schools, with the rest going to government operations and other public services—than before the recession. The Tax Foundation, a Washington (D.C.) research organization that advocates for lower taxes, estimates that 3.5 percent of household income went to property taxes in 2009, compared with 2.9 percent in 2005. The median property taxes paid on homes increased to $1,917 in 2009 from $1,614 in 2005. more... www.businessweek.com/lifestyle/content/mar2011/bw20110318_558174.htm
|
|
|
Post by unlawflcombatnt on Mar 23, 2011 9:46:38 GMT -6
Jeff,
Do you happen to know what the property tax rate is in California? (I'm a renter, so I don't directly pay property tax.)
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Mar 23, 2011 11:20:23 GMT -6
Jeff, Do you happen to know what the property tax rate is in California? (I'm a renter, so I don't directly pay property tax.) CA property taxes depend on when you bought the property because of Proposition 13 plus many added state and local assessments added on top to the CA property tax base to each separate property. It is complex. Proposition 13 saved old people from rising property taxes forcing them to lose or sell their houses from rising taxes that broke their fixed income budgets. Prop 13 essentially states "... Section 1. (a) The maximum amount of any ad valorem tax on real property shall not exceed one percent (1%) of the full cash value of such property. The one percent (1%) tax to be collected by the counties and apportioned according to law to the districts within the counties...." The U.S. Supreme Court declared in Nordlinger v. Hahn that Proposition 13 was constitutional. Several attempts have been made to reform or abolish Prop 13 in California since 1978, but these attempts have ultimately been unsuccessful, even when evidence strongly suggests that the state desperately needs more sources of income. One reason these efforts often fail has to do with concern for elderly homeowners; most California politicians do not want to attract negative attention by potentially creating a situation in which elderly homeowners could be faced to pay higher property taxes. So, for new buyers now their property tax is 1% of the purchase price with increases limited '...assessments of property values could not rise by more than two percent per year, unless a property was sold, in which case it could be assessed at a new value..." 'assessed value' can be challenged usually admininstratively to reduce taxes when property values decline. 'assessed value' is not the most recent sale of comparable houses. Many rules now impact homeowners' CA property tax including some allowing to transfer your current tax bill to a newly purchase house in very limited situations; reductions or exemptions apply for selected favored groups such as the elderly and veterans I believe. I am not an expert on CA property taxes. I hope this pointed you in the right direction to research better CA property tax rules, regulations, procedures.
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Mar 23, 2011 16:16:15 GMT -6
True: another prediction...fall of another PIIGS leader...Portugal today: my 2011 jeffolie predictions included in part: "....EUROPEAN CRISIS
|
|