|
Post by jeffolie on Mar 23, 2011 16:21:38 GMT -6
True: another prediction...Silver has now risen above $37.00 so I am comfortable with that portion of my predictions as now true. Silver's spot price as I post this is $37.38
|
|
|
Post by graybeard on Mar 23, 2011 20:49:06 GMT -6
The big beneficiaries of Prop 13 are the utilities and other corporations that don't buy or sell property very often. I bet when Boeing bought McDouglas in Long Beach, the stock swap allowed them to keep the old tax rate.
As social engineering, Prop 13 has no doubt reduced housing turnover, and made for more stable neighborhoods.
I voted against Prop 13 back then, but without it, I'm sure I would have been priced out of my house, and it would be worth less at sale time. I have neighbors who pay 12 times as much prop tax as I do.
GB
|
|
|
Post by whoswho on Mar 24, 2011 8:44:49 GMT -6
I am not an expert on CA property taxes. I hope this pointed you in the right direction to research better CA property tax rules, regulations, procedures.
If you're curious about a specific property, you could Google. Just key in the county name and search for the Property Valuation Administrator. Such as..... "Boyd County, KY assessor" or "Lawrence County, OH PVA". If it's a less populated area, sometimes you can't even find the site, or if you do, it isn't much help. Usually major metro areas have the most information. They'll tell you everything about a property, show tract maps, photos, historic facts like how much the actual tax was in a given year. You can search by a person's name, or an address.
|
|
|
Post by unlawflcombatnt on Mar 24, 2011 12:36:15 GMT -6
Jeff, Do you happen to know what the property tax rate is in California? (I'm a renter, so I don't directly pay property tax.) CA property taxes depend on when you bought the property because of Proposition 13 plus many added state and local assessments added on top to the CA property tax base to each separate property. It is complex. Proposition 13 saved old people from rising property taxes forcing them to lose or sell their houses from rising taxes that broke their fixed income budgets. Prop 13 essentially states "... Section 1. (a) The maximum amount of any ad valorem tax on real property shall not exceed one percent (1%) of the full cash value of such property. The one percent (1%) tax to be collected by the counties and apportioned according to law to the districts within the counties...." The U.S. Supreme Court declared in Nordlinger v. Hahn that Proposition 13 was constitutional. Several attempts have been made to reform or abolish Prop 13 in California since 1978, but these attempts have ultimately been unsuccessful, even when evidence strongly suggests that the state desperately needs more sources of income. One reason these efforts often fail has to do with concern for elderly homeowners; most California politicians do not want to attract negative attention by potentially creating a situation in which elderly homeowners could be faced to pay higher property taxes. So, for new buyers now their property tax is 1% of the purchase price with increases limited '...assessments of property values could not rise by more than two percent per year, unless a property was sold, in which case it could be assessed at a new value..." 'assessed value' can be challenged usually administratively to reduce taxes when property values decline. 'assessed value' is not the most recent sale of comparable houses. Many rules now impact homeowners' CA property tax including some allowing to transfer your current tax bill to a newly purchase house in very limited situations; reductions or exemptions apply for selected favored groups such as the elderly and veterans I believe. I am not an expert on CA property taxes. I hope this pointed you in the right direction to research better CA property tax rules, regulations, procedures. Thanks, Jeff. This does help. At least I have some basis for comparison with other states. My wife owns a 40 acre parcel of land (which is nothing but dirt and tumbleweeds) in Arizona that was initially priced at $26K. Current property tax on that is $517/year, which would make it about 2% using the initial purchase price. But unlike California, there's either no limit—or very little limit—on how much it can rise each year. It's based on current pseudo-assessments of the land's value. The actual assessment of land's value is very confusing. There are 2 different valuations given, with one being almost 2x as high as the other. The tax is based on some portion of both. One is currently set at ~$33K, the other at ~$66. So based on Arizona's concocted assessments of this nearly useless 40-acre dirt-farm, the tax rate would be considerably less than 2%. I think California really does need to increase property taxes at least somewhat. Moving the tax burden more toward property—and away from sales—would be more beneficial to consumer spending power, production demand, and labor demand. It would also shift the burden more toward higher income and net wealth Californians—who have a lower marginal propensity to spend—and away from the less affluent who have a higher marginal propensity to spend. With such a shift, there would be an increase in California consumer spending—even if there was no net change in money available to spend or taxes collected. Increasing sales tax is THE most counterproductive way to increase tax revenue. It makes the after-tax price of goods higher—reducing demand for those items, as well as demand for workers to produce those items. Needless to say, it would be even better if less of any newly created domestic demand was prevented from "leaking" out into import demand. In other words, it would be even more helpful if we stopped purchasing imports and bought only domestic goods.
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Apr 5, 2011 11:09:38 GMT -6
True prediction...gold $1455
Day high....$1,455
My 2011 jeffolie predictions included: "....GOLD, SILVER: gold will rise above $1455; silver will rise above $37. A high and wide trading range for gold from over $1500 to below $1300. A high and wide trading range for silver from over $40 to below $27. Use moving averages to stay with the trends both long and short if trading.
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Apr 8, 2011 7:47:15 GMT -6
My jeffolie 2011 prediction is true in each and every portion now that Silver is trading above $40.00 and did trade below $27.00 during 2011.
"....GOLD, SILVER: gold will rise above $1455; silver will rise above $37. A high and wide trading range for gold from over $1500 to below $1300. A high and wide trading range for silver from over $40 to below $27. Use moving averages to stay with the trends both long and short if trading...."
True: "....silver will rise above $37..."
True: "...A high...over $40..."
True: "...to below $27..."
I did not post a sell price and do not have a sell price definitely in mind. I advocate using moving averages to stay with the trend and to signal for a trend change. The history of silver with the Hunt Brothers and gold demonstrates a very short duration price spike which may or may not be repeated again as another price spike.
|
|
|
Post by graybeard on Apr 8, 2011 8:35:19 GMT -6
When silver was down to 27, Jeffo, I asked how much lower you thought it would go, and you didn't answer. I was thinking to buy more at that point.
GB
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Apr 19, 2011 10:34:38 GMT -6
A slightly higher daily high resulted in my jeffolie 2011 metals prediction of gold above $1500.00 true. Day high....$1,500.50 www.marketwatch.com/investing/fu ... re-us-gold This jeffolie 2011 prediction was complex, but even so it came true: "....GOLD, SILVER: gold will rise above $1455; silver will rise above $37. A high and wide trading range for gold from over $1500 to below $1300. A high and wide trading range for silver from over $40 to below $27. Use moving averages to stay with the trends both long and short if trading..."
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Apr 25, 2011 8:39:18 GMT -6
reviewed predictions: annuals made on Jan 1st
Most of my Jan 1st predictions for this year are now true or close to being true:
top topic/prediction true: SCREWFLATION: everything ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down in value. Taxes, fees increase while services decrease...Energy Health Tuition Rents. average American family wealth decline saving house prices. Food Stamp new records...screwflation vs stagflation regressive impact on middle lower class have no investments ... see full prediction
true prediction: EUROPEAN CRISIS: the financial crisis will increase ‘austerity’ as retirement...privatized ...benefits reduced. Bailout European banks...the IMF, FED, ECB, China via ‘swaps’, bond sales, loans, ...screwflation because their incomes will decline and expenses increase... Political opposition ...riots or union actions .... some governments changing leaders... see full prediction
true prediction: US STATES, CITIES, LOCAL AGENCIES CRISIS: major layoffs by the end of 2011, bills will not be paid, some bonds will default. The FED/Government bailouts will be narrow, focused on specific job titles like police. The FED will buy debt, bonds, etc of STATES, CITIES, and LOCAL AGENCIES....this is the complete prediction
all true prediction: GOLD, SILVER: gold will rise above $1455; silver will rise above $37. A high and wide trading range for gold from over $1500 to below $1300. A high and wide trading range for silver from over $40 to below $27. Use moving averages to stay with the trends both long and short if trading...this is the complete prediction
Very close to true prediction: commodities index 369.08 near target 370.00 ... see full prediction
coming true prediction: US POLITICS: Gridlock-No major new programs will pass because the House Republicans’ agenda to reduce spending will dominate while the Democratic Senate will block, Obama will compromise to pass raising the debt limit and continuing federal government funding. Palin will lead in Republican polling. Crime will continue its 30 year declining trend...this is the complete prediction
Coming true prediction: Dollar index was 80 on Jan 1st when I predicted it would decline below 70.00 in 2011...now the DXY has a 73.XX price ... 73.82 low this morning
I have made other predictions at different times, some long term predictions, some short term predictions
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Apr 25, 2011 10:17:17 GMT -6
I predicted only in subjects that I felt confident enough to commit to print. I stay away from giving opinions and/or predictions outside of these selected matters. If I am good at understanding the current mix of politics and economics, then I expected that I would be able to project these views into concrete selective predictions. I project and analyze from my limited experiences and knowledges...I deny knowing the future. I am not a Nostradamus, who was a French apothecary and reputed seer see en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nostradamus
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Apr 29, 2011 12:45:31 GMT -6
True prediction COMMODITIES: CRB will exceed 370 My 2011 jeffolie predictions included a particular commodities index called the CRB and did not include individual commodities such as oil, wheat, etc except for the metals prediction which already came true. unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/in ... hread=8394 Day high...370.11
|
|
|
Post by unlawflcombatnt on Apr 29, 2011 21:07:16 GMT -6
Gold rose $29 today (For some reason, Silver rose almost none.)
Over the last 2 weeks Gold has risen about $90/ounce, or over 6%. Over the last 2 months, Gold has risen $154/ounce, or almost 11%.
Silver has risen a whopping 41% over the last 2 months.
|
|
|
Post by jacquelope on Apr 30, 2011 7:44:45 GMT -6
I predicted only in subjects that I felt confident enough to commit to print. I stay away from giving opinions and/or predictions outside of these selected matters. If I am good at understanding the current mix of politics and economics, then I expected that I would be able to project these views into concrete selective predictions. I project and analyze from my limited experiences and knowledges...I deny knowing the future. I am not a Nostradamus, who was a French apothecary and reputed seer see en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NostradamusYou simply see the writing on the wall. Many people who claim to be economists fail to even do that. Heck, when I worked in the business for someone else, I told people to sell their stuff in 2006-2007. I was going on instinct, not numbers. They wound up selling at or near the apex. It's all about the writing on the wall.
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Apr 30, 2011 9:13:58 GMT -6
I predicted only in subjects that I felt confident enough to commit to print. I stay away from giving opinions and/or predictions outside of these selected matters. If I am good at understanding the current mix of politics and economics, then I expected that I would be able to project these views into concrete selective predictions. I project and analyze from my limited experiences and knowledges...I deny knowing the future. I am not a Nostradamus, who was a French apothecary and reputed seer see en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NostradamusYou simply see the writing on the wall. Many people who claim to be economists fail to even do that. Heck, when I worked in the business for someone else, I told people to sell their stuff in 2006-2007. I was going on instinct, not numbers. They wound up selling at or near the apex. It's all about the writing on the wall. ".... It's all about the writing on the wall...." Overwhelmingly quanitities of data are published with false assumptions and/or deliberate distortions by the government, by stock brokers, by gold/silver zealots, by insurance/reverse mortgage peddlers. Correctly picking and analyzing reliable data MAY LEAD to good predictions or not because life is so full of surprises, unexpected changes, political upheavals and/or shifts of power...that making successful predictions is rare. My 2011 jeffolie annual predictions have fortunately been sucessful in a way that predicting rarely happens. Some of this was merely taking slices out of my preceptions of what I think are longer term trends that others often deny exist or chose to ignore because acknowledging these longer trends would hurt their chances of selling their products or gaining favor/popularity. No one wants to kill their gold goose that produces golden eggs by losing their paying customers....but I have no paying customers and have no intentions of trying to become popular, so I am unencumbered from those restraints that are commercial or self imposed to gain social status.
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Apr 30, 2011 9:19:22 GMT -6
Gold rose $29 today (For some reason, Silver rose almost none.) Over the last 2 weeks Gold has risen about $90/ounce, or over 6%. Over the last 2 months, Gold has risen $154/ounce, or almost 11%. Silver has risen a whopping 41% over the last 2 months. Silver ran into selling resistance in the $50 area, just as I expected and posted when silver was below $40 see thread: unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=gold&action=display&thread=8937
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on May 31, 2011 7:57:24 GMT -6
True jeffolie 2011 prediction: Crime will decline"...."Counter to the prevailing expectation that crime would increase during a recession," it actually dropped last year and violent crime is now at nearly a 40-year low. So said The New York Times last week. But what the Times did not report is precisely why... It's no more perverse than the right's insistence that culture is everything and all social programs are a waste of money. But we have known for a long time that, if just from stories our parents and grandparents tell, hard times do not make hardened criminals. Robbers don't rob because they're out of work; they rob because robbery is the kind of work they do...." ======================================================================= my jeffolie 2011 predictions included: "...US POLITICS: Gridlock-No major new programs will pass because the House Republicans’ agenda to reduce spending will dominate while the Democratic Senate will block, Obama will compromise to pass raising the debt limit and continuing federal government funding. Palin will lead in Republican polling. Crime will continue its 30 year declining trend.... Read more: unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/in ... z1NwCJ0bvw =================================================================== Richard Cohen: Does economy affect drop in crime rate? 05/30/2011 "Counter to the prevailing expectation that crime would increase during a recession," it actually dropped last year and violent crime is now at nearly a 40-year low. So said The New York Times last week. But what the Times did not report is precisely why it was so surprised to learn, yet again and probably not for the last time, how the "prevailing expectation" is maybe limited to people who think as did Marx (Karl maybe, Groucho for sure) that money is the root of all evil. On the contrary, evil is. I pick on the Times out of tough love. The paper's evident surprise at the falling crime rate shows a remarkable tenacity to cling to shopworn and disproved dogma. Crime is not committed by good people who lose their jobs. It is committed by criminals who never had a real job in the first place. The drop in the crime rate is indeed newsworthy and a bit mysterious. No one is exactly sure of what is going on. Is the reduction caused by changed demographics - fewer young men - or an increased incarceration rate (no longer the case) or the good ol' zeitgeist? Whatever the reason, the results are wonderful. The chances of being murdered or robbed are now half of what they were in the early 1990s, although there are some disquieting signs that the good days may be coming to an end. New York City, which for some time has led the nation in crime reduction, is having an itsy-bitsy crime wave - murders, rapes, robberies and assaults are up. Still, a little perspective is in order. New York had 536 murders last year. In 1990, the figure was 2,245. Certain kinds of crime might be affected by a recession. Domestic abuse, even murder, might be triggered by overcrowding and unemployment. But the key category of robbery, the one that numerous experts thought would rise on account of the recession, fell 9.5 percent nationwide. The Times dutifully quoted experts who were puzzled by this. I am not. A person who loses his or her job is not likely to pick up a gun and rob someone in the street or climb through a second-story window. There are several reasons for this, the first being that people who had jobs are not likely to be criminals or criminally minded. Even if they had engaged in white-collar crime, violent crime would hardly be the next step. Another reason is the social safety net. Before the unemployed reach for a gun, they are more likely to reach for an unemployment insurance application. This, I think, is a much easier way of replacing some income. My own expert in such matters is Neil Gilbert, Chernin professor of social welfare and co-director of the Center for Child and Youth Policy at the University of California, Berkeley. He points out that recessions are periods of social conservatism - the '20s roared, the '30s most definitely did not. When people lose jobs, they move back with their parents or with relatives. Families enforce social norms. People need one another. It's no time for general mayhem. I would never argue that economics is not an important - and sometimes paramount - factor in social behavior and, surely, a truly starving person will resort to crime, if need be. But the expectation that bad times will produce bad people is a consequence of the belief that social welfare programs will solve social welfare problems: the more you have of the former, the less you have of the latter. This is sometimes the case - food stamps, etc., are a necessity -- but the belief that crime rises as budgets are cut is a fallacy. It infantilizes the poor: Without bread and circuses, they will riot. The shock inherent in The New York Times story, the bafflement over crime rates that seem unaffected by unemployment, is a meme of the left. It has its roots in an admirable desire to help the less fortunate and to enlist government in that effort. It's no more perverse than the right's insistence that culture is everything and all social programs are a waste of money. But we have known for a long time that, if just from stories our parents and grandparents tell, hard times do not make hardened criminals. Robbers don't rob because they're out of work; they rob because robbery is the kind of work they do. www.presstelegram.com/opinions/ci_18171408
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on May 31, 2011 9:39:47 GMT -6
Food Stamps generally avoid average Americans from starving...Food Stamps hit a new participation rate high...the financial elites currently want to avoid starvation in America. my top issue in my 2011 jeffolie predictions included food stamps and so far this prediction is true: "... Food Stamp use will make new records every period...." ============================= "... Food Stamp Usage Hits Fresh RecordThat average monthly benefit of $133.24 for 44.199 million people will help with the purchase of one third of a very edible iPad. Food stamp participation chart presented without further commentary. www.zerohedge.com/article/time-ce....ts-fresh-record======================== my top issue in my 2011 jeffolie predictions SCREWFLATION: everything the ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down in value. Taxes, fees, charges, special assessment districts from State, Local, etc governments will rise while services from them will decrease. 50 California cities have ‘crash taxes’ charging to respond to car incidents plus ambulance charges. Energy expenses for homes, cars, electricity will rise compounded by additional taxes and fees. Food prices will rise. Health care/insurance expenses will rise over 10%. College Tuition will rise 5 to 15%. Mortgage/house payments will rise because interest rates will rise. Rents will rise as demand will increase because the rate of evict/repossessing house owners will speed up forcing families to rent that currently have not been paying their mortgages. The ‘average American family’ wealth will decline as saving become exhausted because of the end of jobless benefits for those exceeding 99 weeks grows. The ‘average American family’ wealth will decline for those still owning their homes because house prices will continue to decline. Food Stamp use will make new records every period. I prefer screwflation over stagflation because of the regressive impact on middle and lower class families' standard of living and that they have no investments that rise with inflation or money printing and in fact usually have their wealth tied up in declining or negative home equity while the upper 20% of earners usually have investments that will rise in 2011 outside of their home equity. Screwflation is my top 2011 topic because its 2011 increase impacts the most Americans even while joblessness will grow on a percentage basis. Read more: unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/ind....4#ixzz1NwdD0uRk Read more: unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=noneconomic&action=display&thread=9117#ixzz1NweR0tPR
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Jun 11, 2011 17:17:28 GMT -6
10% DOWN I nailed this prediction !!!!!!!!!!!! my jeffolie 2011 predictions included: "...US POLITICS: Gridlock-No major new programs will pass because the House Republicans’ agenda to reduce spending will dominate while the Democratic Senate will block, Obama will compromise to pass raising the debt limit and continuing federal government funding. Palin will lead in Republican polling. Crime will continue its 30 year declining trend.... Read more: unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/in ... z1NwCJ0bvw =============================== June 10, 2011 Violent crime is down in areas patrolled by the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department compared with last year, though homicides have held steady, according to crime statistics released Friday. Violent crime dropped more than 10% through May, compared with the same period last year, and serious property crime was down more than 5%, according to the data. Though homicides have reached historic lows overall in recent years, the period through May saw a small spike compared with the year before, with 73 homicides this year, compared with 71 during the same period in 2010. The department polices three-fourths of Los Angeles County, covering approximately 4 million residents latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2 ... areas.html
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Jul 7, 2011 9:40:52 GMT -6
Denmark drops/excit EU w/border controls ... true prediction Denmark just dropped out of the ECB by setting up border controls. Imagine border guards between Texas and Missippi or border guards between New York and New Jersey. America does not permit border guards between states. Likewise the ECB does not permit border guards between ECB state countries. Denmark violated its membership in the ECB by this action just as Texas setting up board guards would by an act of living the United States by ascerting its own soverienty with border controls. Denmark's border controls is an act I consider dropping out or exiting the ECB ... I consider this portion of my prediction now true. The ECB ignores Denmarks act but the consequences are both political and economic. Border crossing no longer are free flowing, unrestricted as between Texas and Missippi or between New York and New Jersey. The ECB is crumbling. Denmark acted and France talks about border guards with Italy to stop 'unwanted' people coming into France. True Danes now demand Denmark act to stop supporting bailouts of Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Greece. True Danes won seats in Denmark's legislature and the Danish government acted like a Civil War secession from the European Union, see the below piece "...Danish Border Controls Shake EU Foundations...'. "...at least one country will drop out or exit the ECB..." My jeffolie 2011 predictions included: "....EUROPEAN CRISIS: the financial crisis will increase ‘austerity’ as retirement ages extend, services are privatized from higher paying government salaries to lower paying private jobs, benefits reduced. Bailouts of European banks will shift low valued debt from the banks to the IMF, FED, ECB, China via ‘swaps’, bond sales, loans, etc. Average European families will have their version of screwflation because their incomes will decline and expenses increase from governments privatizing. Political opposition to incumbents will grow beyond student riots or union actions and result in some governments changing leaders by the end of 2011. The Euro will still exist but at least one country will drop out or exit the ECB. Spain extremely large problems will be handled with bailouts, extending and pretending...." unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/in ... hread=8394 ============================================================= Danish Border Controls Shake EU FoundationsWith the reintroduction of border controls, the Danes are calling into question one of the EU's greatest achievements. Unfortunately, there has been little protest in Brussels and other European capitals. There is growing fatigue regarding European integration -- and that is a bitterly disappointing trend. When he was still the governor of Bavaria, Edmund Stoiber seized every opportunity to curse Brussels officialdom. So it ought to give pause to people that the same Stoiber is today lamenting a "renaissance of nationalism" in European capitals. "I am concerned that Europe is crumbling," the former leader of Bavaria's conservative Christian Social Union (CSU) party said in Brussels last week. He has been appointed by the European Commission to reduce EU bureaucracy. The Schengen Agreement eliminating internal border controls is considered to be a milestone of European integration. No single European Union policy has generated as much enthusiasm among the citizens of Europe as the freedom of borderless travel. Driven by the EU-critical and latently xenophobic Danish People's Party, the move by the Danish government this week to reintroduce border controls , even if only spot checks, is shaking the foundations of Europe. The development is serious, and is part of a trend. Anti-Europeans are on the rise in other parts of Europe as well. In Holland, a minority government is tolerated by right-wing populist Geert Wilders, in France President Nicolas Sarkozy is competing for votes in the upcoming election with Marine Le Pen of the Front National and in Italy, the right-wingers in Umberto Bossi's Lega Nord are part of the government. It was Rome and Paris that first announced they would partially reintroduce border controls. The reason was negligible, and the step was motivated purely by politics. Around 30,000 refugees from North Africa had landed on the coasts of Italy and Malta. By comparison: During the 1990s, more than 100,000 refugees fled from Kosovo to Europe, but nobody at the time threatened to dispose of the right of Europeans to border-free internal travel. But something has changed fundamentally since the 1990s. Europe's nations are no longer ruled by dyed-in-the-wool champions of the European project like Helmut Kohl, François Mitterand or Felipe Gonzales, but by cool and calculating politicians like Angela Merkel or political egocentrics such as Nicolas Sarkozy. The main difference between these politicians and the right-wing populists is in ther methods: Whereas the populists openly proclaim their desire to exit the EU, the others are eliminating the political union bit by bit. Europe's Guardian Has Little Endurance In Germany, for example, Interior Minister Hans-Peter Friedrich of the CSU, the sister party to Chancellor Merkel's Christian Democratic Union(CDU) may have sharply criticized Denmark, France and Italy for going it alone and implementing border controls. At the same time, however, he expressed his understanding for the idea that there might be a need to reintroduce border controls temporarily during emergency situations. And he also wants to leave it up to EU member states to make those decisions -- in other words, let political opportunism dictate matters -- and not the European Commission, which is able to act free of domestic political considerations. The same also holds true for the EU's second great achievement, whose future is also at stake right now: the common currency. Appeals like "the euro is our common fate" are too vague to get across to the people. The truth is more concrete: Why doesn't Angela Merkel state that, each year, Germany exports more goods to the Netherlands than the supposedly massive Chinese market? Then, at least, every German would understand why we profit from the fact that our companies are no longer exposed to the risks of currency exchange rates in Europe. Instead of providing a clear vision, the chancellor is busily engaged in backroom dealmaking, just like her predecessor Gerhard Schröder was before her. Working together with then-French President Jacques Chirac, he weakened the Stability Pact for the euro and violated the common currency zone rule -- that annual deficit spending cannot exceed three percent of gross domestic product -- several years in a row. And though Merkel insists that the stability criteria must be adhered to, when it comes to the question of how violations should be punished, her strict stance evaporates. During her walk along the seaside in Deauville, France, last autumn with President Sarkozy, she yielded and said she would no longer insist on automatic sanctions for countries that violate the budget deficit rules. At the very least, the European Parliament must take firm stance this time. It has the power of co-decision when it comes to reforming the Stability Pact and has so far been insisting on automatic sanctions -- one of the reasons a deal on a second bailout package for Greece has been delayed until autumn. The parliament has proven to be the true guardian of European integration in terms of both Schengen and the euro. The European Commission caved in on both those issues. On the Stability Pact, Commission officials argued behind the scenes for a compromise. And despite its early criticism of the Danish border controls, the Commission no longer sees anything wrong with them. One would expect a bit more steadfastness from a European Commission that views itself as being the "guardian of the European treaties." www.spiegel.de/international/eur ... 17,00.html
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Jul 29, 2011 7:46:26 GMT -6
My January 1, 2011 prediction for GDP is true: US ECONOMY: ‘GDP’ will rise because of government lying and misrepresenting economic numbers. ‘average American family’ economics will decline from increased joblessness, screwflation, resulting in a lower standard of living for the ‘average American family’. ========================= "...Growth in gross domestic product—a measure of all goods and services produced within U.S. borders—rose at a 1.3 percent annual rate, the Commerce Department said. First-quarter output was sharply revised down to a 0.4 percent pace from 1.9 percent. Economy Grows at Sluggish 1.3%; Consumers Pull Back www.cnbc.com/id/43941459
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Aug 1, 2011 7:08:32 GMT -6
Another true prediction made on Jan 1st, 2011: "... Obama will compromise to pass raising the debt limit and continuing federal government funding...' ----------------------------- While the details of the debt ceiling deal remain fuzzy, this much is clear: Barack Obama may be president, but the Tea Party is now running Washington. How did this happen? Simple; this is what American politics looks like when there’s no left-wing movement and no war. Let’s start with the first point. Liberals are furious that President Obama agreed to massive spending cuts, and the promise of more, without any increase in revenues. news.yahoo.com/tea-party-won-deal-055100156.html================================================= my jeffolie 2011 predictions included: US POLITICS: Gridlock-No major new programs will pass because the House Republicans’ agenda to reduce spending will dominate while the Democratic Senate will block, Obama will compromise to pass raising the debt limit and continuing federal government funding. Palin will lead in Republican polling. Crime will continue its 30 year declining trend. Read more: unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/in ... z1TmYAImQU
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Aug 2, 2011 7:51:36 GMT -6
Fearful consumers stopped their regular buying to save what little they could. ... consumer spending declined consumer spending declined = 70 percent of economic activity ====================================== WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans cut back on their spending in June for the first time in nearly two years and their incomes grew by the smallest amount in nine months, a troubling sign for an economy that is barely growing. Consumer spending dropped 0.2 percent in June, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. Some of the decline was caused by declining food and energy prices, which had spiked in recent months. When excluding spending on those items, consumer spending was flat. Incomes rose 0.1 percent, the weakest growth since September. Many people are responding by saving more. The personal savings rate rose to 5.4 percent of after-tax incomes, the highest level since August 2010. The data confirmed last week's report that showed the U.S. economy expanded at a tepid annual rate of 1.3 percent in the spring after only 0.4 percent growth in the first three months of the year. But it also highlighted that consumer spending weakened during the April-June quarter, which could mean the sluggish economy is worsening. Stock futures were trading lower after the report was released. "The recent run of weak economic news has made us more concerned that any rebound will be more modest than previously looked likely," said Paul Dales, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, . High gas prices and unemployment have squeezed household budgets this spring. Many Americans are cutting back on purchases of cars, furniture, appliances and electronics. Consumer spending is closely watched because it accounts for 70 percent of economic activity. more... news.yahoo.com/americans-cut-spe ... 19626.html
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Sept 3, 2011 9:41:23 GMT -6
My preferred jobless number, U-6, hit a new high for the year...this 2011 prediction is coming true
JOBS: the jobless rate will grow slightly by the end of the year, but the first 3 months will keep pretty much even. The last 3 months will be seasonally adjusted the worst part of the joblessness because of the layoffs from non federal governments, States, Cities, etc. I prefer to use U-6 and it will be 17+% by the end of 2011. New hires will mostly be in India and other ‘cheap ass labor’ countries that are cheaper than China that ignore pollution and decency through corruption and/or bribery.
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Sept 3, 2011 12:13:07 GMT -6
Just as the FED stopped reporting the broader money supply measure called M3, the government stopped reporting the broader jobless measure called U-7.
bart reconstructed U-7 (U7b) and charts (U7b) it as a line in one of his monthly longer term charts. Shadowstats' by John William uses a similar approach to chart joblessness and results in jobless numbers similar to barts'.
Here are the most recent reconstructed U-7 numbers (U7b) from a personal message I received from bart:
June U7b as 24%, July as 23.3% and August as 23.6%
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Sept 27, 2011 11:45:26 GMT -6
Rising health care costs are included in my top topic, number 1 prediction called screwflation "... Health insurance costs ... spiked this year ... 9 percent compared to 2010, when they rose only 3 percent ... " ==================================== Survey: Health insurance costs surged in 2011 INDIANAPOLIS (AP) — A new survey shows that the average cost of employer-sponsored health insurance surged this year, snapping a trend toward moderate growth, but experts say increases may slow again in 2012. A study by the Kaiser Family Foundation says annual premiums for family coverage climbed 9 percent compared to 2010, when they rose only 3 percent. Companies and workers split the premium for employer-sponsored coverage, the most common form of health insurance in the United States. The study does not delve into why rates spiked this year, but Kaiser officials say the cost of care continues to rise and new health care overhaul provisions played a small role. Growth in health care use has slowed this year, and that may lead to slower premium growth next year. ================== 2011 jeffolie predictions SCREWFLATION: everything the ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down in value. Taxes, fees, charges, special assessment districts from State, Local, etc governments will rise while services from them will decrease. 50 California cities have ‘crash taxes’ charging to respond to car incidents plus ambulance charges. Energy expenses for homes, cars, electricity will rise compounded by additional taxes and fees. Food prices will rise. Health care/insurance expenses will rise over 10%. College Tuition will rise 5 to 15%. Read more: unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=8394#ixzz1ZAz3le9Tnews.yahoo.com/survey-health-insurance-costs-surged-2011-150718585.html
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Sept 27, 2011 12:08:32 GMT -6
Rising health care costs are included in my top topic, number 1 prediction called screwflation "... Health insurance costs ... spiked this year ... 9 percent compared to 2010, when they rose only 3 percent ... " ==================================== Survey: Health insurance costs surged in 2011 INDIANAPOLIS (AP) — A new survey shows that the average cost of employer-sponsored health insurance surged this year, snapping a trend toward moderate growth, but experts say increases may slow again in 2012. A study by the Kaiser Family Foundation says annual premiums for family coverage climbed 9 percent compared to 2010, when they rose only 3 percent. Companies and workers split the premium for employer-sponsored coverage, the most common form of health insurance in the United States. The study does not delve into why rates spiked this year, but Kaiser officials say the cost of care continues to rise and new health care overhaul provisions played a small role. Growth in health care use has slowed this year, and that may lead to slower premium growth next year. ================== 2011 jeffolie predictions SCREWFLATION: everything the ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down in value. Taxes, fees, charges, special assessment districts from State, Local, etc governments will rise while services from them will decrease. 50 California cities have ‘crash taxes’ charging to respond to car incidents plus ambulance charges. Energy expenses for homes, cars, electricity will rise compounded by additional taxes and fees. Food prices will rise. Health care/insurance expenses will rise over 10%. College Tuition will rise 5 to 15%. Read more: unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=8394#ixzz1ZAz3le9Tnews.yahoo.com/survey-health-insurance-costs-surged-2011-150718585.html" Rise Most in Six Years ... a family plan has risen 113 percent since 2001 ... to $15,073 " ========================= Health-Benefit Costs Rise Most in Six Years “Rising health-care costs have crowded out other elements of the compensation package,” said Randall Abbott, a senior health-care consultant at Towers Watson & Co. The cost for businesses to buy health coverage for workers rose the most this year since 2005 and may reach $32,175 for a family in 2021, according to a survey of private and public employers. The average cost of a family policy climbed 9 percent in 2011 to $15,073, according to a poll of 2,088 private companies and state and local government agencies by the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation in Menlo Park, California, and the Chicago- based American Hospital Association’s Health Research and Educational Trust. The groups’ findings, based on data collected through May, show that health insurance is consuming a bigger share of employer costs, preempting pay raises and making companies pass on more medical costs to their workers, benefit consultants said. The premiums reported are in effect for the full year. “Rising health-care costs have crowded out other elements of the compensation package,” said Randall Abbott, a senior health-care consultant at Towers Watson & Co. (TW) “That’s the price we are paying, beyond the fact that health-care cost in and of itself continues to be more expensive.” The average price of a family plan has risen 113 percent since 2001, the organizations reported. Health Overhaul Effect The health law enacted last year accounts for 1 to 2 percentage points of the premium increases in 2011, said Drew Altman, chief executive officer of the Kaiser Family Foundation. Other contributors include higher medical prices and insurers raising premiums in anticipation of an economic recovery that would spur greater use of health-care services, he said during a conference call with reporters today. Premium increases aren’t the result of the health overhaul, White House Deputy Chief of Staff Nancy-Ann DeParle wrote in a blog post. Premiums rose partly because insurers overestimated the new law’s effect and the gain in health-care spending this year, she wrote. Thirteen of the 14 largest insurers exceeded profit in the first quarter, she wrote. Contributing to the rise in premiums are escalating prices for medical products and services, fewer young and healthy people in the insurance pool and new preventive benefits under the health overhaul, said Karen Ignagni, the chief executive officer of the Washington-based America’s Health Insurance Plans, said in a statement. Premium Increases The survey findings are at odds with other studies and with companies’ financial statements, suggesting this year’s premium increases may be smaller, New York-based Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) analyst Matthew Borsch wrote in a research note today. As premiums rise, wages are projected to increase 2.1 percent on average this year, according to the survey issued today. Two-thirds of companies plan to ask workers to pay a bigger portion of premiums next year, New York-based Towers Watson reported this month. Employees are paying 28 percent of premiums on average for family plans this year, similar to 2010. The proportion of health insurance premiums paid by workers has risen 131 percent since 2001, according to the report. Sixty percent of employers said they offered medical benefits this year, a decrease from 69 percent in 2010. To defray the cost, companies are offering health benefits with deductibles of at least $2,400 for a family plan paired with a tax-free medical expense account, the survey shows. High- deductible plans carry lower premiums and shift more medical costs to workers, according to the report. The average premium for a high-deductible plan this year is $13,704 for a family. Among workers offered health benefits, 17 percent are enrolled in a high-deductible health plan with a savings option, an increase from 13 percent in 2010 and 8 percent in 2009, researchers found. The 2010 health-care law had a limited effect on employer- sponsored health benefits because few provisions have taken effect, according to the study. www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-27/health-benefit-costs-rise-most-in-six-years-surpassing-15-000-per-family.html
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Sept 28, 2011 9:06:08 GMT -6
My prediction US STATES, CITIES, LOCAL AGENCIES CRISIS is true: 75% cut workers pay, benefits, etc "... Half of the cities reported that their state aid has been cut since 2009, as states struggled to balance their own budgets. ... So many cities have resorted to service cuts. Two in five report cutting things like libraries and parks and recreation programs. Nearly a fifth are making cuts to public safety. Nearly three-quarters are cutting their personnel costs through hiring freezes, wage freezes or reductions, layoffs or reduced health benefits for their workers. ..." My Jan 1st #1 topic, first prediction of SCREWFLATION: everything the ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down in value. Taxes, fees, charges, special assessment districts from State, Local, etc governments will rise while services from them will decrease. ... is true: "... And two out of five have raised their fees. ... " ==================================== More Gloom Lies Ahead for Cities, Report Says September 27, 2011 Nearly a third of the nation’s cities are laying off workers this year. More than half have canceled or delayed infrastructure projects. And two out of five have raised their fees. The catalog of service cuts and fee increases comes as America’s cities are bracing for what they expect will be their fifth straight year of declining revenues, according to a survey of city finance officers to be released on Tuesday by the National League of Cities. One of the main culprits is the property tax, which many cities and local governments rely on heavily. Property tax collections, which are usually quite resilient, are projected to fall by 3.7 percent this year — their second year in a row of declines — as tax assessments belatedly catch up with the lower property values left behind by the battered real estate market. Sales tax collections are projected to be slightly higher this year, but income tax collections are projected to be slightly lower, as unemployment and lower wages take their toll in many places. “For cities, the collective impact of property values continuing at levels far below their 2007 peaks, consumer spending slowing, consumer confidence eroding and markets possibly entering a double-dip recession is the worst since the Great Depression,” according to the survey, a copy of which was obtained by The New York Times. The report raises the possibility that “lower property values and declining sales may portend something entirely new, a ‘new normal.’ ” In what passes for a bright spot in an overwhelmingly gloomy report, the number of city finance officers who said their cities would be less able to meet their fiscal needs has dropped. This year 57 percent of the 272 finance officers surveyed said their cities would be less able to meet their needs than they were last year. In 2010, 87 percent said so. But the number was still high this year when it came to cities that rely heavily on property taxes: nearly three quarters said they were less able to meet their needs. One of the report’s authors, Christopher W. Hoene, said many cities were still unsure if the worst was over. “The question is, are we going into the low point or are we emerging out of it?” said Mr. Hoene, director of the Center for Research and Innovation at the league of cities. “Right now, in the early fall of 2011, the answer to that question is unclear.” Cities have been unable to look for help in some of the traditional places. Half of the cities reported that their state aid has been cut since 2009, as states struggled to balance their own budgets. So many cities have resorted to service cuts. Two in five report cutting things like libraries and parks and recreation programs. Nearly a fifth are making cuts to public safety. Nearly three-quarters are cutting their personnel costs through hiring freezes, wage freezes or reductions, layoffs or reduced health benefits for their workers. In recent days mayors from both parties have gone to Washington to speak in support of President Obama’s proposal to increase infrastructure spending and give more aid to states and cities, but the proposal is still deeply unpopular with Republicans in Congress. With cities and states required to balance their budgets, city officials see the federal government as the one entity that can spend more money now to get them through the lingering downturn. The survey finds that the outlook for cities next year was not much brighter. “The effects of depressed real estate markets, low levels of consumer confidence and high levels of unemployment,” the report said, “will continue to play out in cities through 2011, 2012 and beyond.” www.nytimes.com/2011/09/27/us/cities-face-more-budget-problems-report-says.html?_r=1&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=tha23
|
|
|
Post by unlawflcombatnt on Sept 28, 2011 11:46:28 GMT -6
"... And two out of five have raised their fees. ... " Yes. They've raised everything except Corporate taxes and capital gains taxes. What a great government we have.
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Sept 28, 2011 12:10:30 GMT -6
"... And two out of five have raised their fees. ... " Yes They've raised everything except Corporate taxes and capital gains taxes. What a great government we have. Yes. The fees, higher tariffic ticket costs, permit & code enforcement, etc are regressive while the corporations and rich remain unconcerned and barely impacted. As far back as Obama campaigning against Hillary I opposed Obama as nothing more than an opportunist seeking power and richs rather than a person with core values to help 'average Americans'. This character flaw meant he was doomed to continuing the financial elites' status quo which also would doom his chance to be re-elected because Obama was doomed to continue the unpopular economic policies that 'average Americans' found themselves in a 'regular recession' where average men's jobs went to cheap labor and ignored polution policies out of America. Blacks and progressives among the Democrat base openly criticize Obama for not impacting their lives as they were led to believe resulting in a disaffection, lack of enthusiam, 'not energizing the base' obvious and mentioned even in the Main Stream Media; forcing Obama to now try to rally blacks over the published calls for him to improve the blacks lives where joblessness and poverty have increased disproportionately. With the continuing 'regular depression' for average American I applied the term 'screwflation' as my first Jan1st prediction and top topic: '... because of the regressive impact on middle and lower class families' standard of living ...' 2011 jeffolie predictions SCREWFLATION: everything the ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down in value. ... I prefer screwflation over stagflation because of the regressive impact on middle and lower class families' standard of living and that they have no investments that rise with inflation or money printing and in fact usually have their wealth tied up in declining or negative home equity while the upper 20% of earners usually have investments that will rise in 2011 outside of their home equity. Screwflation is my top 2011 topic because its 2011 increase impacts the most Americans even while joblessness will grow on a percentage basis. Read more: unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=8394#ixzz1ZGsfqBo1
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Sept 30, 2011 13:11:00 GMT -6
25% permit fee: I paid the City of Long Beach's permit fee ($150) for installing a replacement gas water heater, Home Depot installed the water heater ($650 water heater only cost plus misc copper piping), lifetime warranty ... permit approval process to take many weeks with many new requirements (one absurd requirement is a 4inch poll, "Bollard", to prevent a car from tipping the water heater over) ====================== SCREWFLATION: everything the ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down in value. Taxes, fees, charges, special assessment districts from State, Local, etc governments will rise while services from them will decrease. Read more: unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=8394&page=1#ixzz1ZSs0P0JI
|
|