Post by unlawflcombatnt on Sept 23, 2006 16:13:21 GMT -6
Evidence continues to mount that the U.S. economy is slowing down much more than predicted. Thursday's economic data was nearly all negative. Leading Indicators declined as predicted, leaving the 1-month change at -0.2%. Not surprisingly, the government has again downwardly revised previously published statistics. July's Leading Indicator total was downwardly revised to -0.2% from the previously published -0.1%. The biggest downward revisions came in manufacturers' Consumer Goods Orders, revised downward -0.13%, from +0.1% down to -0.12%. July's Manufacturing Workweek was also downwardly revised to +0.06% increase from the original +0.12%.
5 of the last 7 months have shown declines in Leading Indicators. Though the 6-month total is only a -0.6% change (less than the -1.0% suggestive of a recession), the 7-month total is -1.1%. Also worth noting, according to the Conference Board, the most important single indicator of the 10 leading indicators is the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury note and the Federal funds rate. This has also declined. August marks the 2nd straight decline in this number, going from -0.02 in July to -0.04 in August. Below is a modified copy of September 21st's Leading Indicator report from Briefing.com, with the previously posted (pre-revision) numbers for Leading Indicators on the bottom chart. The key alterations are underlined in red, with the previous numbers posted in italics next to the current numbers.
LEADING INDICATORS
The top part of this chart can also be found at: Briefing.com: Leading Indicators
An even more unsuspected decline came from the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturer Index. The actual index came in at -0.4, much worse than the predicted +13.0. This was the 1st negative reading since April 2003. The 6-month business outlook was also negative at -0.2. This was the 1st negative reading on the 6-month outlook since before the last recession. Most of the individual components of the index are at their lowest level in 6 years, according to the Philadelphia Fed. Below is a modified copy of the Philadelphia Fed report from Briefing.com. Again the "predicted" results from 9/20/06 are shown on the bottom chart. The current total and previously predicted total are underlined in red.
PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING INDEX
The top part of this chart can be found at Briefing.com: Philadelphia Fed
A graphic representation of the state of our economy can be seen from the red line in the Leading Indicators graph below from Briefing.com. Notice the current steep drop in Leading Indicators parallels a similar drop leading up to the 2001 recession.
5 of the last 7 months have shown declines in Leading Indicators. Though the 6-month total is only a -0.6% change (less than the -1.0% suggestive of a recession), the 7-month total is -1.1%. Also worth noting, according to the Conference Board, the most important single indicator of the 10 leading indicators is the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury note and the Federal funds rate. This has also declined. August marks the 2nd straight decline in this number, going from -0.02 in July to -0.04 in August. Below is a modified copy of September 21st's Leading Indicator report from Briefing.com, with the previously posted (pre-revision) numbers for Leading Indicators on the bottom chart. The key alterations are underlined in red, with the previous numbers posted in italics next to the current numbers.
LEADING INDICATORS
The top part of this chart can also be found at: Briefing.com: Leading Indicators
An even more unsuspected decline came from the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturer Index. The actual index came in at -0.4, much worse than the predicted +13.0. This was the 1st negative reading since April 2003. The 6-month business outlook was also negative at -0.2. This was the 1st negative reading on the 6-month outlook since before the last recession. Most of the individual components of the index are at their lowest level in 6 years, according to the Philadelphia Fed. Below is a modified copy of the Philadelphia Fed report from Briefing.com. Again the "predicted" results from 9/20/06 are shown on the bottom chart. The current total and previously predicted total are underlined in red.
PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING INDEX
The top part of this chart can be found at Briefing.com: Philadelphia Fed
A graphic representation of the state of our economy can be seen from the red line in the Leading Indicators graph below from Briefing.com. Notice the current steep drop in Leading Indicators parallels a similar drop leading up to the 2001 recession.