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Post by jeffolie on Nov 3, 2013 16:47:32 GMT -6
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Post by jeffolie on Nov 3, 2013 16:09:33 GMT -6
TEHRAN, Iran—Iran’s Supreme Leader warned Sunday against undermining negotiators engaged in talks with the West, a message directed apparently at hard-liners who have criticized Iran’s diplomacy over its nuclear program. The remarks by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were his latest show of support for President Hasan Rouhani’s policy of outreach to the West. They come ahead of a new round of talks scheduled for Thursday in Geneva. Diplomats “are on a difficult mission and nobody should weaken those who are on assignment,” the official IRNA news agency quoted Mr. Khamenei, who has final say on all matters of state, as telling a group of students. “Nobody should consider our negotiators as compromise-seekers,” Mr. Khamenei said. Iranian officials maintain that the country won’t concede what it considers to be its fundamental right to nuclear activity. Hard-liners have accused diplomats of being overly optimistic and keeping details of the talks secret. Mr. Khamenei said the nuclear talks with world powers, five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany, will be limited to the nuclear issue. Hard-liners have also criticized Mr. Rouhani for pursuing broader rapprochement, and took particular exception to a short September phone call between him and U.S. President Barack Obama aimed at ending over three decades of estrangement between the countries. Mr. Khamenei criticized Washington for repeating its threats against Iran’s nuclear facilities. “On one hand, the Americans smile and show interest in talks, but on the other hand they immediately say all options are on the table,” Mr. Khamenei was quoted as saying by state TV. Both the U.S. and Israel haven’t ruled out a military option against Iran’s nuclear facilities. The West suspects Iran is developing weapons technology. Iran denies it, saying its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes like power generation and cancer treatment. Mr. Khamenei reiterated his previous position that he isn’t optimistic about nuclear talks, but added that they won’t damage Iran. He also praised Iranian militant students who stormed the U.S. Embassy in 1979, sparking a crisis that contributed significantly to the bitterness between the two countries. “Thirty years ago, our young people called the U.S. Embassy a ‘den of spies’. It means our young people were 30 years ahead of their time,” he said, a reference to a series of reports of U.S. eavesdropping on foreign leaders, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Hard-line factions have pledged to stage a large anti-U.S. rally Nov. 4, the anniversary of the takeover. The date is marked each year by gatherings outside the former embassy’s brick walls, which are covered with anti-American murals. But the fervor has waned in recent years, with authorities bringing school children by bus to help fill out the crowds. It is seen as an opportunity for hard-liners to put further pressure on Mr. Rouhani’s diplomacy. stream.wsj.com/story/latest-headlines/SS-2-63399/SS-2-371874/
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Post by jeffolie on Nov 3, 2013 14:14:27 GMT -6
Ayatollah Khamenei: US should ‘slap’ Sheldon Adelson, cannot stop Iran’s nuclear program 2:19 PM 11/03/2013 Iran’s supreme leader lashed out at America and Israel on Sunday, demanding that American billionaire Sheldon Adelson be silenced and implying that the U.S. is powerless to do anything about Iran’s nuclear program. “If Americans are telling the truth that they are serious about negotiation, they should slap these prating people [Adelson] in the mouth and crush their mouths,” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in a speech on the eve of the anniversary of the U.S. Embassy takeover in Tehran on Nov. 4, 1979. Adelson, a casino tycoon and staunch supporter of Israel, criticized the Obama administration during a panel discussion held at Yeshiva University in New York City on Oct. 22 for negotiating with Iran over its illicit nuclear program — and claimed that the U.S. should detonate a nuclear weapon in a remote part of Iran to intimidate the Ayatollah. “What are we going to negotiate about?” Adelson asked. “I would say, ‘Listen, you see that [Iranian] desert out there? I want to show you something… You pick up your cell phone, and you call somewhere in Nebraska and you say, ‘OK, let it go.’ And so there’s an atomic weapon, goes over, ballistic missiles, the middle of the desert, that doesn’t hurt a soul. Maybe a couple of rattlesnakes and scorpions, or whatever. Then you say, ‘See! The next one is in the middle of Tehran. So, we mean business. You want to be wiped out? Go ahead and take a tough position and continue with your nuclear development. You want to be peaceful? Just reverse it all, and we will guarantee you that you can have a nuclear power plant for electricity purposes, energy purposes.’ ” As The Daily Caller reported on Oct. 7, the radicals ruling Iran organized mass rallies to mark the “Death to America” day on Monday, and to emphasize the Islamic Republic’s view of the U.S. as the “Great Satan” and Israel as an “illegitimate state.” “[The United States], which is under the illusion that it is responsible for world and nuclear issues, doesn’t have a damn right to pose a nuclear threat to another country,” Khamenei said, referring to Adelson’s speech. “Today, Americans care the most for the decadent Zionist regime and circles because the [Obama] administration and Congress are dominated by powerful capitalists and Zionist companies… but we are not forced to treat them with care. We have said since the very first day (of the Islamic Revolution), and we do say it now and we will say it in future as well, that we believe the Zionist regime is an illegitimate and bastard regime.” Khamenei added that he is not optimistic about negotiations with the U.S., calling America the most hated power in the world. “That day, our youth named the place, the spy then, Khamenei said, referring to the U.S. Embassy takeover of 1979. “Today, more than three decades later, U.S. embassies in Europe are America’s partners [in spying]. This shows that our youth are more than three decades ahead of world events.” “What damn thing can [America] do about it?” Khamenei asked, referring to the U.S. policy that put “all options on the table” when it came to handling Iran’s nuclear program. The second round of nuclear talks between Iran and the world powers will take place on Nov. 7-8. Despite several U.N. resolutions and sanctions and demands from the U.S. and the European Union ordering a halt to Iran’s illicit nuclear program, the Islamic regime has significantly expanded its program and currently has over 19,000 centrifuges online, with enough enriched uranium for more than six nuclear bombs. It has also amassed over a thousand ballistic missiles and is working on intercontinental ballistic missiles in collaboration with North Korea. A recent report by the Institute for Science and International Security suggested that Iran, with its current enriched uranium stock, could build a nuclear bomb in as little as a month. Reza Kahlili is a pseudonym for a former CIA operative in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and author of the award-winning book “A Time to Betray“ (Simon & Schuster, 2010). He serves on the Task Force on National and Homeland Security and the advisory board of the Foundation for Democracy in Iran (FDI). Read more: dailycaller.com/2013/11/03/ayatollah-khamenei-us-should-slap-sheldon-adelson-cannot-stop-irans-nuclear-program/#ixzz2jcD94QhX
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Post by jeffolie on Nov 3, 2013 13:57:14 GMT -6
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Post by jeffolie on Nov 3, 2013 12:20:26 GMT -6
11/3/2013 weekly DJIA chart update ... megaphone pattern topping
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Post by jeffolie on Nov 3, 2013 12:06:15 GMT -6
3 big POMO days the week starting 11/4/13 to Jobs rate Fri ... Monday $3B, Wed $4B, Fri $5.75B
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Post by jeffolie on Nov 3, 2013 12:00:22 GMT -6
The rich Type 1 consumer already surprised with fear in vehicle purchasing ... and now, fear in houses purchased to create rentals DOUBLE FEAR ... a bad sign for the overall economy where Trickle Down economics from the wealth effect dominates my jeffolie view: features a stock market top process has started, the jeffolie Danger Zone has started, the housing segment expects to be weaker, the end of the good times has started as my view has predicted with up to the 2016 Nov elections to reach a 1st bottom in the new upcoming Greater Depression. Personal Note: an attorney prominent in Southern California foreclosures for a very large connected housing for cash purchasing corporation informed me yesterday at my oldest daughter's wedding: Business in foreclosed houses declined 1/3rd in the last 2 months
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Post by jeffolie on Nov 3, 2013 11:55:48 GMT -6
The rich Type 1 consumer already surprised with fear in vehicle purchasing ... and now, fear in houses purchased to create rentals
DOUBLE FEAR ... a bad sign for the overall economy where Trickle Down economics from the wealth effect dominates
my jeffolie view: features a stock market top process has started, the jeffolie Danger Zone has started, the housing segment expects to be weaker, the end of the good times has started as my view has predicted with up to the 2016 Nov elections to reach a 1st bottom in the new upcoming Greater Depression.
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Post by jeffolie on Nov 3, 2013 11:47:18 GMT -6
The "Oh Crap" Moment For Housing Is Now In The Can 11/02/2013 Real estate guru Mark Hanson updates his housing view following this week's dismal housing industry data: •Sept. Pending Sales... the largest MoM drop since Sept 2001... not 2011... yes, 2001. Don't let them tell you 'this is normal for Sept'. The 'oh-crap' moment is now in the can. Going forward, "Existing Sales" volume will disappoint on a YoY basis for several quarters. There is no way around it... Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me; fool me thrice, shame on the Fed... Via Mark Hanson, Existing Sales is terribly backward looking and you can't change history no matter how hard certain parties try. 'House Prices' have already fallen sharply post-surge and continue to weaken -- prices are set at contract but not recorded until "closing" -- simply awaiting printing by lagging surveys. Contrary to 'New' Home Sales, Existing Sales are where the Fed's go-go juice really showed up thanks to the Twist/QE 3, 4 increase in "purchasing power" beginning in Q4 2011 and the new-era "investor" rush to market in mid-2012. This is evident in the demand divergence between the two series. As such, the "post-surge" housing market "demand collapse" will be much more evident in this series than it was by the 27% MoM drop in New Home Sales in July. In short, over the next few months we will see the two series quickly "converge" -- Existing Sales weaken considerably to be more in-line with the weak builder demand -- reflecting conditions more akin to the "hangover" period following the sunset of the Homebuyer Tax Credit. Along with this comes lower YoY Existing and New Sales volume along with down trending MoM house prices as far out as July 2014, at which point house prices have a good shot at being negative YoY as well. Sept Pending Home Sales Low-lights 1) US Pendings Fell 21.1% MoM on an NSA basis (down more not including last month's revision), the most on record for any Sept since Sept 2001...that's a terrible period to comp against. 2) On a YoY basis Pendings were down 4.3% on a daily basis (Sept 2013 had 1 extra business day YoY). And remember, in Sept demand was still being pulled forward due to rates and fear of Gov't shutdown. 3) Levels of Sept Pendings virtually ensure Oct through April Existing Sales" are lower YoY. A year ago volume outperformed (muted seasonality) in winter & spring, as new-era "investors" all dove in at the same time. This year the market will underperform (heavier than normal seasonality) due to the stimulus "hangover". This delta will produce meaningful YoY Existing Sales declines especially through April 2014. 4) Leading indicating Western region absolute Pending Sales lowest since 2007. 5) Heavily weighted, leading-indicating Northeast & West Sept Pendings down 31% & 20% MoM NSA respectively, also 12-year record drops. 6) YoY, Northeast & West Pendings down YoY by 3.1% and 5.2% respectively...the first YoY drop since after the 2010 sunset of the Homebuyer Tax Credit. 7) MoM, Sept national Pendings dropped 54% and 40% more than the 10-year average and post housing market crash avg Sept respective seasonal drops. **note, items 5 & 6 were straight from NAR and not normalized for more business days this Sept than last. In short, the YoY drop is larger than reflected in 5 & 6. www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-02/oh-crap-moment-housing-now-can
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Post by jeffolie on Nov 3, 2013 8:17:12 GMT -6
my jeffolie view: surprise, the rich fear the future sooner than one would have expected considering that the stock indexes continue to hit new highs ... a bad indicator and an early failure of the rich
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Post by jeffolie on Nov 3, 2013 8:07:52 GMT -6
Type 1 rich consumers pulled back in confidence and slightly in purchasing ... the early sign of the end of the good times.
================================================= U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decline to 15.17 million annual rate in October by Bill McBride on 11/01/2013 Based on an estimate from WardsAuto, light vehicle sales were at a 15.17 million SAAR in October. That is up 5.9% from October 2012, and down slightly from the sales rate last month. Some of the weakness in October was related to the government shutdown. This was below the consensus forecast of 15.4 million SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate). This graph shows the historical light vehicle sales from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for October (red, light vehicle sales of 15.17 million SAAR from WardsAuto). Vehicle Sales This was the lowest sales rate since April, and was probably related to the government shutdown. The growth rate will probably slow in 2013 - compared to the previous three years - but this will still be another solid year for the auto industry. The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. Vehicle SalesNote: dashed line is current estimated sales rate. Unlike residential investment, auto sales bounced back fairly quickly following the recession and are still a key driver of the recovery. Looking forward, growth will slow for auto sales. If sales average the recent pace for the entire year, total sales will be up almost 9% from 2012, not quite double digit but still strong. Read more at www.calculatedriskblog.com/#Ua3tMw33v3k5RmrM.99
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Post by jeffolie on Nov 3, 2013 7:54:33 GMT -6
static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/11/1/536584-13833291727095883-Dave-Kranzler_origin.pngOctober Auto Sales Not As Good As The Headline Reports - Sell The Market Bounce Nov 3 2013 Investors and traders were greeted with news headline reports of robust October auto sales from General Motors (GM), Ford (F) and Chrysler. On the surface, all three auto makers reported double digit sales increases for October this year vs. October 2012. Apparently the Government shutdown had no affect on sales, although the sales at Chrysler and Ford missed expectations. However, if you sift through data that does not make the headlines or most news reports, it turns out the actual sales for all three auto makers were not what they seem. Rather than looking at year over year sales, I wanted to evaluate the trend in sales from September to October. What I found was quite interesting. It is important to keep in mind that an auto manufacturer, for accounting purposes, books a sale when the tractor-trailer with a car loaded on it leaves the manufacturing facility and not when an actual end-user pays for it and drives it home. So the sales being reported do not necessarily mean that a real sale to the end-user was actually booked. GM reported 226k sales for October vs. 187k for September. However, the GM dealer inventory ballooned from 689k to 728k. So the increase in sales from September to October reported by GM was 39k but the increase in month-end dealer inventory was 58k. Did GM really sell 226k cars as reported? The jury is out on that. But the dealer inventory has ballooned out 87 days, which likely means that even if the dealers eventually move those cars, it will ultimately negatively affect GM's sales in the next several months, as dealers will be forced to employ heavy discounting and incentives to move existing inventory before ordering replacement inventory. It can even be argued that GM has effectively cannibalized early 2014 sales, as dealers will be focusing on trying to clear out 2013 inventory. Based on some of the incentive deals advertised, many dealers are still trying clear out 2012 inventory. With Ford, October sales was 191.9k vs. 185k for September, a paltry increase of 6.9k cars. That seems quite a bit smaller than the 14% year over year headline number, doesn't it? Furthermore, although I could not find a September month-end dealer inventory number for Ford, its October month-end dealer inventory was 91 days, four days higher than GM's dealer inventory. It is highly likely that Ford also engaged in the same kind of channel-stuffing as was done by GM, which means future sales will likely be disappointing. For point of reference, looking at data that goes back to 2007, a more typical level of dealer inventory levels was 45-50 days. It is clear at least to me that auto makers are stuffing the dealer sales channel to make headline sales numbers look better. Finally, Chrysler's month to month comparison was shocking. While Chrysler reported an 11% year over year gain in sales for October, it actually sold 3100 less cars in October - 140k - than in September - 143.1k. I could not find month-end dealer inventory for Chrysler, which doesn't surprise me since Chrysler is privately owned by Fiat. Speaking of the dealer incentives, special financing rates and manufacturer discount deals mentioned above, as it turns out October was chock full cash-back, rebate and 0% financing deals: GM, Chrysler and Ford. As you can see, the auto makers are pretty much across the board offering either cash-back rebates for 0% - as in free - loans for qualified buyers. In addition more money is being made available for the much riskier sub-prime borrowers as well: Sub-prime Auto Loans Get Larger. It is clear that auto makers and dealers are doing whatever they need to do to try and move cars. At some point the majority of demand will be saturated, leading to declining car sales in the next several quarters. Chrysler's September to October result is likely a preview of that. The point of my analysis is that, when looked at below the surface of headline reports, auto sales are not as strong as might appear. In fact, as you can see, without the benefit of the channel-stuffing technique applied by GM, and that was likely employed by Ford, both companies' unit auto sales for October would have been lower than September's, just like Chrysler's was. Because of this, my recommendation is to unload long positions in GM and F if you are invested, because just like the overall market, these stocks are likely to experience a big drop when big investors digest the real data. If you want to get aggressive, I like shorting GM here. You can see by this chart that GM seems to have a hit stout resistance at the $38 level: Even more troubling for GM stock investors is the fact that GM seems to have stalled at the $38 level while the overall S&P 500 index has been steadily rising. You can also see that based on two momentum indicators, which are negatively diverging from the stock price, it looks like GM stock is being sold into strength. We've seen that today as GM quickly traded up $1.26 (3.4%) from yesterday's close of $36.95 but has since backed off 81 cents from its highs today. If the market had perceived GM's October sales report to be bullish, this should not have occurred. Although I like other stocks in other sectors better for short-sale purposes, I believe GM presents a relatively low-risk short sale opportunity, with the 200 dma of $32.61 area as my target - a 13% gain from the current trading price seekingalpha.com/article/1800242-october-auto-sales-not-as-good-as-the-headline-reports-sell-the-market-bounce?source=email_macro_view&ifp=0
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Post by jeffolie on Nov 3, 2013 5:10:21 GMT -6
Obama & Merkel trade insults, a distraction Nov 2013 Via surrogate speakers, Obama spit on Merkel criticizing Germany's export empire featuring deflationary pressure on the EU while Merkel spit back over NSA spying with retaliation threats to isolate Germany's commerce communications to inside the German borders. This overt, public spitting war precedes actual economic actions and blame for apparent political failures domestically. Merkel has failed to form a new coalition even now over 1 month from the Sept 22, 2013 German nationwide elections.Obama has failed to create a glimmer of glory with ObamaCare's horrible, embarrassing beginning. Both Obama and Merkel need this transatlantic anger to distract from domestic political failures obvious to the world. Germany's SPD: no coalition without dual citizenship, labor reform dealReuters By Holger Hansen Leader of the SPD Gabriel leaves the first round of coalition talks between Germany's conservative (CDU/CSU) parties and the SPD in Berlin Leader of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) Sigmar Gabriel leaves the first round of coalition talks …By Holger Hansen BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany's Social Democrats (SPD) will not agree to a "grand coalition" with Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives without agreement on core issues including labor market reforms and expanding dual citizenship, its leader said. The SPD got the green light from party members two weeks ago to start coalition talks after it pledged not to budge on 10 "non-negotiable" demands, also including infrastructure investment and equal pay.The conservative bloc, made up of the Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian allies, the Christian Social Union (CSU), emerged as the strongest force in a September election but is still short of enough seats to rule alone. In comments to the SPD party's Berlin branch on Saturday, Gabriel made clear they could still reject a 'grand coalition'. "If we have good reasons, we can ultimately say no and accept new elections," Gabriel said in a speech. "If, for example, they say no to dual citizenship and re-regulating the labor market, those are good reasons to say at the end: No, we won't do it." Children of migrants who are born in Germany are allowed to keep both their German nationality and that of their parents until they turn 18, when they have to choose between the two. But there are exceptions, including for people from the European Union and Switzerland. The previous German government in June blocked legislation to change the system, which supporters say would help alleviate a skilled labor shortage. Some members of the SPD have accused the conservatives of anti-Turkish sentiment verging on racism in rejecting the bills, which would have had the most effect on German residents of Turkish origin. The party also wants to introduce a blanket minimum wage of 8.50 euros per hour, as opposed to the current system of agreeing wages in collective bargaining by sector and region. Germany has resisted the measure in part because it is seen as political interference in bargaining between unions and employers. This week a working group set up as part of the coalition negotiations made progress towards introducing a wage floor in more sectors but did not agree on a universal wage. The two sides want to wrap up negotiations by November 26, after which the SPD plans to allow its 472,000 members to vote on the deal in an unprecedented move that could complicate or even doom whatever is agreed. Many SPD members are wary of another alliance with Merkel after voters punished the party following its 2005-2009 coalition with its worst election result since World War Two. The result of the full-party vote is due on December 15. If the deal goes through, the government could start work the next week. news.yahoo.com/germanys-spd-no-coalition-without-dual-citizenship-labor-173528772--business.html
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Post by jeffolie on Nov 3, 2013 5:02:27 GMT -6
Done ... the honeymoon started
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Post by jeffolie on Nov 3, 2013 4:57:01 GMT -6
Germany, France, Spain carry out mass surveillance: Snowden files London (AFP) - Spy agencies in Germany, France, Spain and Sweden are carrying out mass surveillance of online and phone traffic in collaboration with Britain, according to documents leaked by Edward Snowden, the Guardian newspaper reported Saturday. Britain's GCHQ electronic eavesdropping centre -- which has a close relationship with the United States' National Security Agency (NSA) -- has taken a leading role in helping the other countries work around laws intended to limit spying, the British newspaper said. The report is likely to prove embarrassing for governments including those of Germany and Spain, which had denounced earlier reports that the NSA was electronically spying on their citizens. Saturday's report said the intelligence services of the European countries, in a "loose but growing" alliance, carried out surveillance through directly tapping fibre-optic cables and through secret relationships with communications companies. The newspaper has previously reported that GCHQ taps transatlantic fibre-optic cables. On Saturday it quoted a 2008 country-by-country survey by GCHQ of its European partners, plus a later report by the British agency on efforts to crack commercial online encryption, both of which it said were among documents leaked by Snowden from the NSA. In the survey, GCHQ said that Germany's Federal Intelligence Service (BND) was tapping fibre-optic cables and had "huge technological potential and good access to the heart of the internet", while British spies were helping the Germans to change or bypass laws restricting their ability to intercept communications. Spain's National Intelligence Centre (CNI) assisted through a relationship with an unnamed British communications firm, it said. France, Germany and Spain have reacted angrily to reports of US electronic spying, with Chancellor Angela Merkel confronting US President Barack Obama over reports that the NSA had monitored her phone for several years. Spain summoned the US ambassador last month to condemn American eavesdropping on its citizens' phone calls, after the newspaper El Mundo published a document purportedly showing that US security services tracked 60.5 million Spanish calls in one month. But American officials retaliated by saying that European spy agencies shared phone call records with US intelligence, and media reports in Europe had misinterpreted the Snowden documents. According to Saturday's report, France's General Directorate for External Security (DGSE) collaborated with GCHQ on breaking online encryption and secured useful information from an unnamed telecoms company. Sweden won praise from the British for passing a law in 2008 allowing tapping of fibre-optic cables and planned to work closely with them on carrying out the operations, the report said. Documents leaked by Snowden, a former contractor at the NSA who has been granted temporary asylum in Russia, have caused a growing row over the United States' vast surveillance network. China, Indonesia and Malaysia have demanded explanations this week over reports that data was being collected for the Americans via Australian embassies. news.yahoo.com/germany-france-spain-carry-mass-surveillance-snowden-files-131011110.html
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Post by jeffolie on Nov 3, 2013 4:38:23 GMT -6
'Snowden testimony would be a disaster'The ever-widening NSA spying scandal 'Snowden testimony would be a disaster'Germany's attitude to Snowden shifts The very idea that Germany is paying so much attention to whistleblower Edward Snowden is an affront to many Americans. His Moscow meeting with Green politician Hans-Christian Ströbele has caused quite a stir in the US. Green politician Hans-Christian Ströbele with Edward Snowden, holding open letter “It would be a disaster for American-German relations if Snowden came to Germany and publicly testified before the Bundestag." What Green MP Christian Ströbele ultimately is hoping for after his surprise visit with Edward Snowden in Moscow would be a nightmare for Stephen Szabo of the German Marshall Fund, as well for the Obama administration. The relationship between the two countries is headed towards "a deep, downward spiral," says Szabo. This must be stopped. If Snowden were to come to Germany with official blessing, the situation would escalate further, warns the long-time Germany expert and vice-president of the German Marshall Fund in Washington. In the US, Snowden is a traitor Stephen F. Szabo, Leiter der Transatlantischen Akademie des German Marshall Funds in Washington DC. Copyright: Ashley Vonclausburg. Communications Assistant at the German Marshall Fund. US-German ties are at a low point, says Stephen Szabo of the German Marshall Fund Ströbele´s meeting with Snowden got media attention in the US. It was reported by National Public Radio, CNN and other media outlets. But while in Germany Snowden is considered enlightened, in the eyes of many in the US - and especially President Obama - he is a traitor. Particularly sensitive is the fact that Snowden, according to Ströbele, is apparently ready to testify in Germany about NSA spying. This intention is also underscored by an open letter from Snowden. That German Interior Minister, Hans-Peter Friedrich, has even welcomed the news, saying he "was glad to hear it" has left official Washington speechless; even if most US experts believe Snowden is unlikely to go to Germany. "Slap in the face of the Americans" In an interview with DW, Caitlin Hayden, spokeswoman for the National Security Council of the United States, did not directly mention Friederich's or Ströbele's comments, but pointed out that Washington was still seeking to prosecute Edward Snowden in a US court. Hayden did not answer the question of whether the United States would insist on Snowden's extradition if he visited Germany. Jackson Janes, President of the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies at the Johns Hopkins University in Washington, DC Snowdown testimony would be a slap in the face, says AICGS director, Jackson Janes "If it really happens, it would be a slap in the face to the Americans, there's no question about that," said Jackson Janes, Director of the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies (AICGS) at Johns Hopkins University in Washington. "It's the same as with Moscow, where they have permitted Snowden to remain - and it could mean: We do not trust you," he told DW. Janes interprets the growing interest of the German federal government and parliament in a statement from Snowden - wherever he might make it - as a no-confidence vote against the Obama administration . The former American ambassador to Berlin, Phil Murphy, is among those who formulate their views more cautiously: Germany has every right to be concerned about the surveillance, he said, and, of course, as a sovereign state can actively investigate. But the first country Snowden should go to is still the United States, he emphasized. Murphy said he understood that Germany needed "tangible results" to move forward towards a "solution to the crisis;" however, the former diplomat questioned whether Snowden being interviewed by German authorities and parliamentarians was the right way forward . Can Kerry´s self-criticism calm things down? It may be that the recent comments of US Secretary of State John Kerry will appease angry feelings. Kerry publicly acknowledged that the United States had sometimes gone too far. "Kerry was right," says Janes, but "to cage the beast” requires an effort by everybody, not just the Americans, he added, referring to the global network of electronic surveillance and security apparatuses that had taken on lives of their own. Snowden willing to testify It was first and foremost, however, "the policies of the Americans - incidentally in place before the attacks of 9/11 - which now have to be examined," Janes said. Stephen Szabo of the Marshall Fund advises against reading too much into Kerry's remarks: "It is to be expected that the State Department would make such comments. The question is whether the security establishment, whether the intelligence services, have the last word, together with Obama." Differences in fundamental values Both Janes and Szabo see German-American relations at an absolute low point. They are "worse than during the war in Iraq," says Szabo. "We have differences on very fundamental values, such as trust and economic competition. And esteem for America in Germany has been very low for some time." Szabo sees the recent meeting of high-ranking German and American security experts at the White House as a first successful step towards restoring confidence . "We should give the Germans the same assurances we gave the British that we are not eavesdropping on them," he says. "The U.S. government must give the Germans the feeling that they are a special partner for us." Confidence and self- protection To avoid the embarrassment of possible future spying revelations, Janes advises President Obama to adopt "a proactive information policy." That could have been done much earlier, he remarked. At the same time, he stressed, it is not enough for the Germans to be indignant about massive surveillance by the National Security Agency and otherwise to rely on Snowden statements. "In the longer term it is not a question of asking Mr. Snowden to help us out with our problems," Janes notes. Instead, he said, the Germans should strengthen their own protection mechanisms to protect themselves and their privacy more effectively - not just against the United States. www.dw.de/snowden-testimony-would-be-a-disaster/a-17199894
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Post by jeffolie on Nov 3, 2013 4:21:37 GMT -6
my jeffolie view: remains the same that warming comes from a multitude of sources and a complex set of events including man made pollution, volcanos, jet stream changes, and more
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Post by jeffolie on Nov 3, 2013 4:17:59 GMT -6
Global warming 'pause' may last for 20 more years and Arctic sea ice has already started to recover •Study says warmer temperatures are largely due to natural 300-year cycles •Actual increase in last 17 years lower than almost every prediction •Scientists likened continuing pause to a Mexican wave in a stadium 2 November 2013 The 17-year pause in global warming is likely to last into the 2030s and the Arctic sea ice has already started to recover, according to new research. A paper in the peer-reviewed journal Climate Dynamics – by Professor Judith Curry of the Georgia Institute of Technology and Dr Marcia Wyatt – amounts to a stunning challenge to climate science orthodoxy.
Not only does it explain the unexpected pause, it suggests that the scientific majority – whose views are represented by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – have underestimated the role of natural cycles and exaggerated that of greenhouse gases.
The research comes amid mounting evidence that the computer models on which the IPCC based the gloomy forecasts of a rapidly warming planet in its latest report, published in September, are diverging widely from reality. The graph shown above, based on a version published by Dr Ed Hawkins of Reading University on his blog, Climate Lab Book, reveals that actual temperatures are now below the predictions made by almost all the 138 models on which the IPCC relies. The pause means there has been no statistically significant increase in world average surface temperatures since the beginning of 1997, despite the models’ projection of a steeply rising trend. According to Dr Hawkins, the divergence is now so great that the world’s climate is cooler than what the models collectively predicted with ‘five to 95 per cent certainty’. Curry and Wyatt say they have identified a climatic ‘stadium wave’ – the phenomenon known in Britain as a Mexican wave, in which the crowd at a stadium stand and sit so that a wave seems to circle the audience. In similar fashion, a number of cycles in the temperature of air and oceans, and the level of Arctic ice, take place across the Northern hemisphere over decades. Curry and Wyatt say there is evidence of this going back at least 300 years. According to Curry and Wyatt, the theory may explain both the warming pause and why the computer models did not forecast it. It also means that a large proportion of the warming that did occur in the years before the pause was due not to greenhouse gas emissions, but to the same cyclical wave. ‘The stadium wave signal predicts that the current pause in global warming could extend into the 2030s,’ said Wyatt. This is in sharp contrast with the IPCC’s report, which predicts warming of between 0.3 and 0.7C by 2035. Wyatt added: ‘The stadium wave forecasts that sea ice will recover from its recent minimum.’ The record low seen in 2012, followed by the large increase in 2013, is consistent with the theory, she said. Even IPCC report co-authors such as Dr Hawkins admit some of the models are ‘too hot’. He said: ‘The upper end of the latest climate model projections is inconsistent’ with observed temperatures, though he added even the lower predictions could have ‘negative impacts’ if true. But if the pause lasted another ten years, and there were no large volcanic eruptions, ‘then global surface temperatures would be outside the IPCC’s indicative likely range’. Professor Curry went much further. ‘The growing divergence between climate model simulations and observations raises the prospect that climate models are inadequate in fundamental ways,’ she said. If the pause continued, this would suggest that the models were not ‘fit for purpose’.www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2485772/Global-warming-pause-20-years-Arctic-sea-ice-started-recover.html
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Post by jeffolie on Nov 2, 2013 14:43:43 GMT -6
Financial firms cutting thousands of jobs November 2, 2013 Financial firms cutting jobs as mortgage refinancings fall and Wall Street activity slows. Story Highlights Decline in mortgage refinancings partly blamed Banks are closing some branches New regulations reducing bank fees Financial firms are cutting tens of thousands of jobs because of a slowdown in the mortgage business, the sluggish economy, the growth of online banking and new regulations. The sector announced 49,000 layoffs the first nine months of 2013, most among all industries, outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas said in a report. Challenger expects to report Wednesday the sector was the top job-cutter in October. Bureau of Labor Statistics data, which tally net job gains or losses after figuring in both layoffs and hiring, also show a downsizing industry. In September, financial companies lost 7,200 jobs after shedding 5,900 the previous month. The cutbacks represent a reversal from 2011 and 2012 when financial firms had begun contributing to overall U.S. job growth after recovering more slowly than other sectors from the 2008 financial crisis. Many of the recent job losses stem from the rise in interest rates and resulting decline in mortgage refinancing activity. Rates for 30-year fixed mortgages have risen to 4.13% from 3.35% in May. The Mortgage Bankers Association estimates mortgage refinancing volume will drop to $989 billion this year and $388 billion in 2014, from $1.2 trillion in 2012. Also, five years after the housing crash, fewer mortgages are delinquent, allowing banks to reduce staffing needed to process the bad loans. Bank of America has announced 5,900 mortgage-related job cuts since August. Mortgage applications in its pipeline for purchases and refinancing fell 60% in the third quarter vs. the second quarter. Other banks recently announced layoffs in their mortgage units, including 6,400 by Wells Fargo, 1,100 by Citigroup and 800 by SunTrust. With refinancing falling, "It's not being made up by (mortgages for) people buying homes," says Citigroup spokesman Mark Rodgers. The refinancing downturn is not the only reason banks are retrenching. With businesses uncertain about the economy, interest rates and policies in Washington, trading and mergers have slowed, says Jeff Harte, an analyst at Sandler O'Neill. Business loans also have leveled off. And banks are closing branches and building smaller outlets as consumers bank more online. Meanwhile, Harte says, new rules have cut the debit card fees banks charge retailers and limited overdraft charges. And the Dodd-Frank reform is adding costs as banks meet stricter standards. Bank of America and Wells Fargo recently reported third-quarter revenue that was stagnant vs. the year-ago period. Bank of America has slashed about 25,000 jobs the past year, or 9% of its work force, mostly in the U.S. Citigroup is cutting 4,600 jobs in North America this year. The job reductions have especially affected New York City, where the industry has been a much smaller contributor to the city's jobs recovery than in previous rebounds. Employment in the securities industry was 163,400 in August, 25,600 fewer than before the financial crisis, the New York State Comptroller's office said last month. Harte says he expects the cuts to continue at a reduced level into 2014. www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/11/02/financial-services-firms-job-cuts/3283105/
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Post by jeffolie on Nov 2, 2013 12:48:29 GMT -6
Plunging inflation prompts bets ECB will ease again soon Fri Nov 1, 2013 Nov 1 (Reuters) - Tumbling euro zone inflation has firmed up market expectations that the European Central Bank will be forced to ease monetary policy in the coming months, taking the shine off a resurgent euro. October's fall in the annual rate of price increases to 0.7 percent took it way under the ECB's target of at or just below 2 percent. It raised the spectre of deflation in some areas and of a risk to the euro zone's nascent economic recovery. Money markets, which were already pricing in the possibility of looser ECB policy in the coming year, now reflect an outside chance of a move in the next few months. Indeed some big banks, including UBS, RBS and Bank of America/Merrill Lynch have said they now expect a cut next week when the ECB meets to discuss policy. A Reuters poll taken before the inflation data showed no expectation of a rate cut. From the market's point of view, it really comes down to when rather than whether. "The market is (now) pricing in that the ECB will ease policy further, probably on the liquidity side and perhaps a refi rate cut without moving the deposit rate into negative territory," said Benjamin Schroeder, a strategist at Commerzbank. One-year Eonia rates hit a 3-1/2 month low on Friday, showing greater market conviction of ECB easing in the future. One-year one-year Eonia, which show where one-year Eonia contracts are expected to be in a year, fell 5 basis points to 0.27 percent, its lowest since July. Assuming liquidity conditions normalise in the next two years, this means the forward Eonia curve is almost fully pricing in a refi rate cut over the next 12 months. The inflation data also pushed the euro off two-year highs on a trade-weighted basis and boosted demand for options to hedge against further losses. One-month risk reversals - a measure of relative demand for options on a currency rising or falling - showed an increased bias for euro puts, or bets the currency will weaken. Just a week ago, there was a slight bias towards euro calls - or bets the currency would gain. "The FX options market reacted violently to the euro zone inflation numbers," said Chris Turner, head of currency strategy at ING. "Suffice to say the prospect of a dovish ECB meeting next Thursday should limit euro/dollar topside." A strong currency curbs inflation by cutting the cost of imports and a steady drop in prices raises the risk of growth-sapping deflation. Price stability is at the core of the ECB's mandate. RATE ADVANTAGE Some analysts believe that the ECB will wait to make a final decision until December, when its new staff economic forecasts come out, including inflation. A rate cut would be the first since May, when the ECB lowered the refinancing rate to a record low of 0.5 percent. It would hurt the euro's rate advantage over other currencies and make it less alluring for investors. It fell to a two-week low below $1.35 on Friday and has shed 2.5 percent since it hit a two-year high of $1.3833 on Oct. 25. The ECB tried to talk down the euro in February, when subdued inflation along with the euro at $1.37 prompted bank President Mario Draghi to flag risks to growth. Any hint from Draghi the euro was hurting growth would prompt another sell-off in the single currency, traders said. The ECB could also give banks another dose of cheap long-term loans, an option that could weigh on the single currency. "Without further liquidity easing a rate cut would just be a cosmetic noise because 25 basis points would not get Spanish or Italian banks lending or growing here," said Lena Komileva, chief economist at G+ Economics. www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/01/ecb-rates-markets-idUSL5N0IM19P20131101
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Post by jeffolie on Nov 2, 2013 12:28:13 GMT -6
Joe Friday…Commodities breaking support, US $ breaks out! Deflation??? 11/01/2013 Many key commodities are breaking support, ranging from the CRB Index, Crude Oil, Commodities ETF (DBC) and Gasoline futures. This has my attention, due to this...the majority of the time Crude Oil & Gasoline have been soft, it may have been good for prices at the pump, yet it wasn't good for stock prices! At the same time some of the key macro commodities are breaking down, the U.S. Dollar is bouncing off support and breaking above a bullish falling wedge. Joe Friday...Often times a breakdown in these commodities reflected a weaker macro picture for the economy (Deflating) going forward. Stay tuned! blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/
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Post by jeffolie on Nov 2, 2013 12:20:21 GMT -6
November 02, 2013 Schedule for Week of November 3rd by Bill McBride on 11/02/2013 The key reports this week are Q3 GDP on Thursday, and the October employment report on Friday. Other key reports include the ISM service index on Tuesday, and the October Personal Income and Outlays report on Friday. The Fed's October Senior Loan Officer Survey will be released on Monday. ----- Monday, November 4th ----- Early: The LPS September Mortgage Monitor report. This is a monthly report of mortgage delinquencies and other mortgage data. 10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for both August and September. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in August orders, and a 1.7% increase in September orders. 2:00 PM ET: The October 2013 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices from the Federal Reserve. This might show some slight loosening in lending standards. ----- Tuesday, November 5th----- 10:00 AM: ISM non-Manufacturing Index for October. The consensus is for a reading of 54.5, up slightly from 54.4 in September. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. 10:00 AM: Trulia Price Rent Monitors for October. This is the index from Trulia that uses asking house prices adjusted both for the mix of homes listed for sale and for seasonal factors. 10:00 AM: Q3 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report from the Census Bureau. This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to report on the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates. However, this report doesn't track with other measures (like the decennial Census and the ACS). ----- Wednesday, November 6th ----- 7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. 10:00 AM: Conference Board Leading Indicators for September. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in this index. ----- Thursday, November 7th ----- 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 335 thousand from 340 thousand last week. 8:30 AM: Q3 GDP (advance estimate). This is the advance estimate of Q3 GDP from the BEA. The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.0% annualized in Q3. 3:00 PM: Consumer Credit for September from the Federal Reserve. The consensus is for credit to increase $12.0 billion in September. ----- Friday, November 8th ----- 8:30 AM: Employment Report for October. The consensus is for an increase of 120,000 non-farm payroll jobs in October, down from the 148,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in September. The consensus is for the unemployment rate to increase to 7.3% in October, although the rate could spike higher to 7.4% or 7.5% due to the government shutdown based on the BLS method. Any sharp increase in the unemployment rate due to the shutdown should be reversed in the November report. The following graph shows the percentage of payroll jobs lost during post WWII recessions through September. Percent Job Losses During RecessionsThe economy has added 7.6 million private sector jobs since employment bottomed in February 2010 (7.0 million total jobs added including all the public sector layoffs). There are still 1.3 million fewer private sector jobs now than when the recession started in 2007. 8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays for October. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%. 9:55 AM: Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (preliminary for November). The consensus is for a reading of 75.0, up from 73.2 in October. www.calculatedriskblog.com/
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Post by jeffolie on Nov 2, 2013 11:40:37 GMT -6
my views feature that 'politics and economics are 2 sides of the same coin' plus 'politics matters'
The political decisions such as appointing Janet Yellen favoring QE forever will moderate deflationary pressures modestly unless she follows Japan's approach to QE on steroids ... if I am correct, a horrible bear stock market will begin within months most likely in 2014 but take about 2 years to hit bottom ... before the Nov 2016 elections: 36 months from now.
Banks will ask for and might get another bailout with Obama still in office and his Yellen at the FED chairperson position creating a political issue that Obama will be forced to own as bailing out the banks yet again.
Like the Great Depression, politics will twist. Although, they might twist strangely ... Incumbents of both parties will be rejected in favor of new faces from within both parties against pale males of both parties. For example, Emily's list will rival Angie's List for popularity as opposed to cigar smoke filled backrooms. Databases will replace snail mail lists. Twitter via smartphones will replace cable TV talking pale male heads.
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Post by jeffolie on Nov 2, 2013 10:13:13 GMT -6
I have lost 63 pounds now by mostly a diet of lean protein and lots of mixed vegetables over the last 4 months. I got accepted into a pre-bariatric program at Kaiser Permanente. I had a qualifying morbid obesity of a 40 BMI at a weight of 293 to get approved by Kaiser. My goal is to make the operation unnecessary before the end of the program. I am in the 3rd week of the 20 week pre-operation program and there is a waiting period after the pre-operation program ends before Kaiser actually performs the operation. I miss the Chinese buffet. And, my wife has lost 30 pounds. 163 pounds and a BMI OF 22.1 per Kaiser Permanente yesterday morning ... I never did get that bariatric by pass operation ... just kept losing weight the old fashioned way with diet and exercise for 4 years I have been off all diabetic meds under the Kaiser direction for over 2 years ... A1c results of 6.0 or less for 2 years
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Post by jeffolie on Nov 2, 2013 9:26:21 GMT -6
Secular Bull And Bear Markets Nov 1 2013 Was the March 2009 low the end of a secular bear market and the beginning of a secular bull? Without crystal ball, we simply don't know. One thing we can do is examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of possibilities. An obvious feature of this inflation-adjusted is the pattern of long-term alternations between up-and down-trends. Market historians call these "secular" bull and bear markets from the Latin word saeculum "long period of time" (in contrast to aeternus "eternal" — the type of bull market we fantasize about). The key word on the chart above is secular. The implicit rule I'm following is that blue shows secular trends that lead to new all-time real highs. Periods in between are secular bear markets, regardless of their cyclical rallies. For example, the rally from 1932 to 1937, despite its strength, remains a cycle in a secular bear market. At its peak in 1937, the index was 29% below the real all-time high of 1929. For a scholarly study of secular bear markets, which highlights the same key turning points, see Russell Napier's Anatomy of the Bear: Lessons from Wall Street's Four Great Bottoms. If we study the data underlying the chart, we can extract a number of interesting facts about these secular patterns (note that for the table below I am including the 1932-1937 rally): The annualized rate of growth from 1871 through the end of October (using extrapolated CPI data for the most recent month) is 2.14%. If that seems incredibly low, remember that the chart shows "real" price growth, excluding inflation and dividends. If we factor in the dividend yield, we get an annualized return of 6.77%. Yes, dividends make a difference. Unfortunately that has been less true during the past three decades than in earlier times. When we let Excel draw a regression through the data, the slope is an even lower annualized rate of 1.74% (see the regression section below for further explanation). If we added in the value lost from inflation, the "nominal" annualized return comes to 8.98% — the number commonly reported in the popular press. But for a more accurate view of the purchasing power of the market dollars, we'll stick to "real" numbers. Since that first trough in 1877 to the March 2009 low: •Secular bull gains totaled 2075% for an average of 415%. •Secular bear losses totaled -329% for an average of -65%. •Secular bull years total 80 versus 52 for the bears, a 60:40 ratio. This last bullet probably comes as a surprise to many people. The finance industry and media have conditioned us to view every dip as a buying opportunity. If we realize that bear markets have accounted for about 40% of the highlighted time frame, we can better understand the two massive selloffs of the 21st century. Based on the real (inflation-adjusted) S&P Composite monthly averages of daily closes, the S&P is 106% above the 2009 low, which is still 15% below the 2000 high. Add a Regression Trend Line Let's review the same chart, this time with a regression trend line through the data. This line is a "best fit" that essentially divides the monthly values so that the total distance of the data points above the line equals the total distance below. The slope of this line, an annualized rate of 1.74%, approximates that number. Remember that 2.14% annualized rate of growth since 1871? The difference is the current above-trend market value The chart below creates a channel for the S&P Composite. The two dotted lines have the same slope as the regression, as calculated in Excel, with the top of the channel based on the peak of the Tech Bubble and the low is based on the 1932 trough. Historically, regression to trend often means overshooting to the other side. The latest monthly average of daily closes is 70% above trend after having fallen only 11% below trend in March of 2009. Previous bottoms were considerably further below trend. Will the March 2009 bottom be different? Only time will tell. For a more optimistic view, see Chris Puplava's February assertion that The Secular Bear Market in Stocks Is Over, over three months before the index hit a new all-time high. Chris's commentary includes some interesting demographic analysis based on the ratio of the higher earning, bigger spending age 35-49 cohort to less financially empowered age 20-34 cohort. Unfortunately this ratio is being savagely trumped by a far more powerful demographic shift: The ratio of the elderly (65 and over) to the peak earning cohort (age 45-54). The next chart, based on Census Bureau historical data and mid-year population forecasts to 2050, illustrates this rather amazing shift. The year 2013 is an inflection point in the chart above, with the elderly cohort dramatically increasing in numbers. The ratio of the two, the blue line in the chart, peaked in 2007 and began its long rollover in 2008, coincident with the beginning of the last recession. We have many years to go before this ratio approximately levels out around 2030. Even more disturbing is the elderly dependency ratio, the label given by demographers to the ratio of the 65 and older population to the productive workforce, which for developed economies is usually identified as ages 20-64. The next chart illustrates the elderly dependency ratio with Census Bureau forecasts to 2050. Note that in this chart I've followed the general practice in demographic research of multiplying the percent by 100 (e.g., the mid-year 2013 elderly dependency ratio is 23.3% x 100 = 23.3). As the chart painfully illustrates, the elderly dependency ratio is in the early stages of a relentless rise that doesn't begin to level out until around 2036, over two decades from now. Given the unprecedented demographic headwinds for today's investors, I'm unable to share the Chris's confidence that the U.S. is now in a new secular bull market. Notes: For readers unfamiliar with the S&P Composite Index (a splice of historical data different from the S&P Composite 1500), see this article for an explanation. Since the market data for this commentary is based on the monthly averages of daily closes, I should point out that the real (inflation-adjusted) all-time high in 2000 occurred in August 2000. The nominal daily-closing high in 2000 occurred on March 27th at 1,527.46, but that was an unusually volatile month, and the average of nominal daily closes for that month was much lower at 1,442.21. Inflation-adjustment to the latest dollar value puts that August all-time real high around 2,013. seekingalpha.com/article/1797092-secular-bull-and-bear-markets?source=email_macro_view&ifp=0
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Post by jeffolie on Nov 2, 2013 7:27:08 GMT -6
The bee hive warfare inside the Republican Party features a no holds barred, revolutionary zeal by fiscal conservatives originally bannered under the Tea Party and now including many more political fronts. Purging the establishment Republicans tactics by purists advocating fiscal conservatism has put fear into the incumbent Republican legislators at all levels of govt. Like the to the death battle among Africanized honey bees in the wild, fiscal conservative zealots burn with the political fever of revolution within the old pale male GOP often had been championed by aging leaders such as Ron Paul and now including younger members such as Paul Ryan. The burning passion may isolate the pale male GOP even more so compared to the ever broadening Democrats who in the 2012 elections gained tremendously among Americans of Asian descent splitting from white GOP zealots seeking purity in the GOP beehive. my jeffolie view: Hillary appears more likely to win the 2016 Presidential election from the GOP fiscal conservative zealots beehive warfare killing off establishment incumbents and instilling fear among pale male GOP members running up to the 2014 elections. ======================================= Conservative groups seek control of GOP agenda 11/2/2013 WASHINGTON (AP) — Virtually unknown outside Washington, a coalition of hard-line conservative groups is fighting to seize control of the Republican agenda. Tea party allies like the Club for Growth, FreedomWorks and Heritage Action for America showed their might by insisting that the GOP embrace the government shutdown that hurt the nation's economy and the party's reputation. Now emboldened, these groups are warning that their aggressive agenda-pushing tactics aren't over — and they're threatening retribution against Republicans who stand in their way. "They refuse to learn," Chris Chocola, a former Indiana congressman who leads the Club for Growth, says of lawmakers who buck the will of right-leaning groups. His group is already seeking or supporting primary challengers for 10 congressional Republican incumbents seeking re-election next fall. Mainstream GOP groups — such as Karl Rove's American Crossroads or the party's formal campaign committees — question their more conservative counterparts' role, fed up by their outsized influence in shaping the party's current agenda. For decades, interest groups like the National Rifle Association have shaped debates on single issues. But Republicans suggest that not since the Christian Coalition of the 1990s have outside forces played such a sweeping, integral role in guiding Republican priorities as the tea party-led fiscal conservatives have in the ongoing budget debate. "You have a small group in Congress that has become the surrender caucus," argues Illinois Rep. Adam Kinzinger. "They've surrendered their voting card to the wishes of these outside groups." Such divisions on display between the Republican Party's pragmatic and ideological wings — and their affiliated outside groups — carry huge risk for the GOP heading into the 2014 midterm congressional elections. Republicans will seek to win power in the Senate and preserve their narrow House majority next fall. But primaries that leave eventual nominees battered and broke for the general election could hamper that goal. Nevertheless, tea party-aligned groups already are spending millions of dollars calling on compromise-minded Republican lawmakers from New Hampshire to Idaho to embrace more aggressive tactics against President Barack Obama's agenda. This is their message as Congress wrestles with health care implementation, considers immigration reform and gets ready for new rounds of debt talks: Republicans who work with the Democratic president do so at their peril. It appears that no Republican is too large for these groups. The Senate Conservatives Fund — founded by tea party hero and former South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint — has launched television ads against Republican leaders, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, who helped craft the recent budget compromise that ended the shutdown. It also has criticized Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona and Sen. Jonny Isakson of Georgia. The Club for Growth also is targeting Oregon Rep. Greg Walden, despite his role as leader of the campaign committee charged with preserving the Republican House majority. The group already has launched a website entitled, "Primary My Congressman," and so far identified 10 potential campaigns to unseat Republican incumbents. That group and others also are spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to support a challenge against longtime Republican Sen. Thad Cochran, of Mississippi, in hopes of persuading him to retire. And the Tea Party Patriots is going after Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, Sen. Mark Kirk of Illinois and Sen. Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire. Behind the scenes, GOP campaign officials are urging donors to fund mainstream groups to counter the conservative outfits. These officials are doing so even as they question the right-flank's ultimate effectiveness, given that its groups, although vocal, typically have far less money compared with other organizations standing with Republicans from the establishment wing. This Oct. 12, 2006 file photo shows former Indiana Rep. Chris Chocola, who leads the Club for …The most powerful Republican allies from the last election — mainstream Republican groups such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, American Crossroads and its sister organization Crossroads GPS — poured more than $212 million combined into the 2012 election. Combined, the Club for Growth, Heritage Action and the Senate Conservatives Fund spent $21 million. National GOP officials are watching for signs of rifts among the right-leaning groups, which could dilute their power. The shutdown debate itself exposed at least one disagreement. The Club for Growth, FreedomWorks and Heritage Action for America defiantly insisted that any deal to end the shutdown and raise the nation's debt ceiling must dismantle or delay Obama's health care law. Lawmakers who didn't stand them with them risked inviting primary challenges. But some tea party allies like Americans for Prosperity, the group funded by conservative billionaires Charles and David Koch, opposed the tactics that led to the shutdown. Now that group is trying to move on, investing $2 million in a four-state ad campaign that hammers Democrats over the troubled health care law implementation. "We're convinced that repealing Obamacare is long-term effort," AFP president Tim Phillips says, explaining why it didn't sign onto the right-flank's demands to defund the law as part of a budget compromise. In a sign of another possible crack in the conservative coalition, a spokesman for Heritage Action for America says that in the near future, it likely will focus its health care criticism on Democrats, who stood together during the shutdown debate. "There needs to be some breaks in that unity," says Heritage spokesman Dan Holler. "That may happen naturally, or it may need to be forced." But Chocola said the Club for Growth wouldn't stop pressuring Republicans, particularly as congressional leaders begin to debate a new budget package. Chocola wouldn't rule out another push to link such legislation to the president's health care law, but said his group might shift its strategy if major shifts to entitlement programs are included. As the possibility of a shutdown loomed large in September, the network of GOP outside groups disagreed over strategy. Crossroads officials briefed members of Congress on internal polling that showed the shutdown strategy deeply unpopular. Given that, the group and its fellow mainstream Republican allies largely stayed silent, fearing influential talk show radio hosts and aggressive conservative activists would brand them as heretics. Meanwhile, conservative groups grew even more vocal in pressuring House and Senate Republicans to refuse to budge from tea party demands to defund "Obamacare" as part of any budget deal. Eventually, House Speaker John Boehner broke with the right flank and endorsed the bipartisan plan to end the 16-day shutdown and raise the debt limit. And 87 Republicans in the House and 18 in the Senate supported it. The damage to the GOP was severe: a Washington Post-ABC News poll found that 63 percent of Americans now have a negative view of the Republican Party, the worst rating for the GOP in almost three decades. news.yahoo.com/conservative-groups-seek-control-gop-agenda-211503829--election.html
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Post by jeffolie on Nov 2, 2013 5:39:29 GMT -6
Obama & Merkel trade insults, a distraction Nov 2013
Via surrogate speakers, Obama spit on Merkel criticizing Germany's export empire featuring deflationary pressure on the EU while Merkel spit back over NSA spying with retaliation threats to isolate Germany's commerce communications to inside the German borders.
This overt, public spitting war precedes actual economic actions and blame for apparent political failures domestically.
Merkel has failed to form a new coalition even now over 1 month from the Sept 22, 2013 German nationwide elections.
Obama has failed to create a glimmer of glory with ObamaCare's horrible, embarrassing beginning.
Both Obama and Merkel need this transatlantic anger to distract from domestic political failures obvious to the world.
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Post by jeffolie on Nov 2, 2013 5:27:06 GMT -6
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Post by jeffolie on Nov 2, 2013 5:07:12 GMT -6
Hillary will be the next US President running against GOP old pale males by social networking software coordinating women and minorities as did the re election of Obama ... the GOP will strengthen strong holdings only while losing the national election ... the Twitter election wars will begin NOW (lol National Organization of Women ... NOW) via smartphones (PCs and email now are dinosaurs)
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Post by jeffolie on Nov 2, 2013 4:52:02 GMT -6
... often my jeffolie phrase applied would be POLITICS MATTER Unfortunately, Obama remains an opportunist as I labelled him in the primaries against Hillary Clinton ... Obama sought and achieved power and personal wealth while being a false front Progressive when in fact his character fault seeking wealth and power worked out to be best called a 'corporatist' where the Trickle Down economy featured the Type 1, rich consumer that Obama achieved in becoming increasing wealth for the corporations and corporatists with power like Obama achieved. Who was the alternative ... Hillary ... would she have been more supportive of the middle class or as I refer to 'the most common American'?Hillary Clinton will run for the 2016 nomination and most likely become the next President ... Meet the new boss corporatist Hillary Clinton Same as the old boss corporatist Obama "Won't Get Fooled Again" The Who - Won't Get Fooled Clinton starting new project to empower women 11/2/2013 PHILADELPHIA (AP) — Hillary Rodham Clinton announced a new initiative Friday called "No Ceilings" to empower women and children around the globe. The project could serve as the basis of a recurring campaign theme if she decides to run for president again. Clinton said the initiative, launched through the Clinton Foundation, will look at the progress made by women and chart a path toward full participation in the economy and society. The former secretary of state said at the Pennsylvania Conference for Women that too many women face ceilings "that hold back their ambitions and aspirations." "I believe that women everywhere can be and are agents of change, drivers of progress, makers of peace," Clinton said. "All we need is a fighting chance to show what we can do in every part of life." Polls have shown Clinton as the leading Democratic contender for president in 2016 if she decides to run. Clinton has said she plans to begin seriously considering it next year but has largely steered clear of politics since leaving the State Department, focusing on paid speeches, an upcoming book and her family's foundation. Addressing 7,000 people at the women's conference, Clinton made no mention of a future presidential campaign but struck themes of women's empowerment that could be part of a future campaign to become the first woman to win the White House. The former New York senator said in the U.S., many women are the primary financial providers for their families and some are living shorter lives than their mothers. She cited the challenges of unemployment and economic stress in communities "hollowed out by inequality and poverty." "Women trying to build a life and a family in such places don't just face ceilings. It's as if the floor has collapsed beneath them," Clinton said. The title of the project, "No Ceilings," was reminiscent of her endorsement of Barack Obama after their lengthy Democratic presidential primary contest in 2008. Clinton said in the June 2008 speech that while she didn't break the ultimate glass ceiling of reaching the White House, "it's got about 18 million cracks in it," a nod to the number of people who voted for her. She said the new initiative will look at progress made by women since the 1995 United Nations conference on women in China that she addressed as first lady. She said it would work with partners in the technology industry to create a "digital global review" of data that will be used by advocates, academics and decision-makers to "see the gains and see the gaps." "We need to help our girls see that they are capable of doing anything and stand behind our women as they break through the doors that are still closed," Clinton told attendees. Looking ahead to the project, Clinton said she was "absolutely confident that we can send a clear, unmistakable message that ceilings in America are unacceptable." "Ceilings around the world that prevent education and health care and jobs and opportunity are equally unacceptable, and we're going to be about the business of making sure those ceilings crack for every girl and every woman here and around the world," Clinton said. "So let's get cracking." news.yahoo.com/clinton-starting-project-empower-women-192049593--election.html
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