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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Jan 5, 2012 23:06:09 GMT -6
Though recent job gains would appear to have increased significantly, economists urge caution about overoptimism due to seasonal factor distortion.Seasonal Issues Cloud Apparent Employment Gainby Steven Johnson " The jobs recovery gathered pace as a measure of private-sector hiring surged in December....
The ADP National Employment Report's December job tally of 325,000 surprised economists who had expected a gain of roughly half that size. It was also above the 204,000 private jobs added in November.
Many economists struck a note of caution, though, saying the number may have been distorted by seasonal factors
Joel Prakken, of Macroeconomic Advisers, which helps produce the survey, told reporters job readings tend to be inflated at year-end as employers keep workers on payrolls for accounting reasons, and the reading could be revised lower....
"we have to be very aware that it does reflect a very volatile period of the year -- the holiday season and the days following the new year," said Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at Economic Outlook Group in Princeton, New Jersey."
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Post by mdub on Jan 6, 2012 0:54:59 GMT -6
Hope everyone had a Merry Christmas and aHappy New Year!
I called the BLS a few months ago. I wanted to know who it was that's hiring Paramedics and EMTs, as I have received my EMT certificate. I have applied in almost every county in CA and there are hundreds of people on the waiting list and very few jobs. I have also been looking in about 10 other states.
The BLS says there are between 12K-25K jobs most months under the category "Ambulatory and Health Services."
They said they could not tell me who was hiring, because then those companies would get mad and would not participate in the survey anymore. Do they really think anyone is so dumb as to believe this? How is announcing who is hiring going to make that company look bad? If anything, it would make them look good. Moreover, companies anounce layoffs all the time.
In short, I think this is the result of seasonal adjustments or the birth death model. If they lied about WMDs they will lie about job growth.
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