Post by jeffolie on Jul 30, 2012 10:29:12 GMT -6
100 days out: stocks, wildcards, debates, Independents
Current main stream media meme: the Independents in the Swing states will determine the election.
I will be watching the following:
1. stock market trend for the 90 days prior to the election: 88% prediction rate
2. impact of the October debates
3. Wildcards: War starting favors Obama; jobless rate rising favors Romney; disclosure of "October surprises" of past bad deeds goes either way
Currently, I continue with my prediction that Republicans will gain significant strength from the 2012 elections made in 2008 and repeated so often you probably are sick of them.
The below piece relies on history repeating...I disagree
attributed to Mark Twain: "History never repeats, but sometimes it rhymes"
========================
Make your predictions for 2012.
Here are mine:
jeffolie predicts...Throw the bastards out of office gained ground against Establishment politicians in 2010, 2011 and will gain ground in 2012 .
jeffolie predicts...This repeats my old assertions made prior to Obama winning the 2008 primaries that Obama and the Democrats will lose enough power to fail after the 2010 elections to get anything done, continued political and economic gridlock
Read more: www.unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=10102#ixzz227l9d6Bt
=========================================
Nearly all poll leaders 100 days out win presidency
July 30, 2012
Every candidate since 1964 with the lead in Gallup polls about 100 days before the presidential election won the Oval Office except for Michael Dukakis. So what do the polls tell us now?
Not much.
The latest Gallup poll, conducted on a seven-day rolling basis, puts President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney at a tie. Both candidates received 46% support among registered voters.
What’s most striking about past polls is how sharply the electorate can move in one direction or another, even when the frontrunner wins. See Gallup for historical polling results.
In 1992, for example, Bill Clinton held a commanding 56%-36% lead over George H.W. Bush, with independent Ross Perot siphoning off a portion of the vote. Yet Clinton ended up with only 43% of the vote vs. 38% for Bush.
And in 1976 Jimmy Carter’s 54% to 32% advantage over Gerald Ford in mid-summer almost vanished. Carter eked out a victory over Ford by a 50% to 48% margin.
Those two races illustrate another common feature of presidential contests. The gap almost always narrows, sometimes considerably, as the election nears.
Take 1980. Ronald Reagan moved out to a commanding 45% to 29% lead over Carter in an early August poll. Yet Carter tied the race at 39% in mid-September and actually took a lead, 44% to 40%, in mid-October.
In the end, though, late-deciding voters flocked to Reagan as he won 51% to 41%.
The only candidate in the past 12 elections to come from far behind to win was George H.W. Bush in 1988. Dukakis held a 54% to 37% lead in midsummer Gallup polling, but Reagan’s vice president jumped in front in late August and never relinquished his advantage. He won 53% to 46%.
Going further back, John F. Kennedy in 1960, and Harry Truman in 1948, also registered victories despite trailing in the polls 100 days out. The Gallup data go back to 1936.
Below are the midsummer polling numbers of the past 12 elections, with the final percentage of votes in parenthesis.
2008
Barack Obama - 47% (53%)
John McCain – 41% (46%)
2004
George W. Bush – 48% (51%)
John Kerry – 47% (48%)
2000
George W. Bush – 46% (47.9%)
Al Gore – 41% (48.4%)
1996
Bill Clinton – 50% (49%)
Bob Dole – 35% (41%)
Ross Perot - 10% (8%)
1992
Bill Clinton – 56% (43%)
George H.W. Bush – 36% (37.5%)
Ross Perot - Not applicable (19%)
1988
Michael Dukakis – 54% (46%)
George H.W. Bush – 37% (53%)
1984
Ronald Reagan – 53% (59%)
Walter Mondale – 41% (41%)
1980
Ronald Reagan – 45% (51%)
Jimmy Carter – 29% (41%)
John B. Anderson – 14% (7%)
1976
Jimmy Carter – 54% (50%)
Gerald Ford – 32% (48%)
blogs.marketwatch.com/election/2012/07/30/nearly-all-poll-leaders-win-presidency-with-100-days-left/
Current main stream media meme: the Independents in the Swing states will determine the election.
I will be watching the following:
1. stock market trend for the 90 days prior to the election: 88% prediction rate
2. impact of the October debates
3. Wildcards: War starting favors Obama; jobless rate rising favors Romney; disclosure of "October surprises" of past bad deeds goes either way
Currently, I continue with my prediction that Republicans will gain significant strength from the 2012 elections made in 2008 and repeated so often you probably are sick of them.
The below piece relies on history repeating...I disagree
attributed to Mark Twain: "History never repeats, but sometimes it rhymes"
========================
Make your predictions for 2012.
Here are mine:
jeffolie predicts...Throw the bastards out of office gained ground against Establishment politicians in 2010, 2011 and will gain ground in 2012 .
jeffolie predicts...This repeats my old assertions made prior to Obama winning the 2008 primaries that Obama and the Democrats will lose enough power to fail after the 2010 elections to get anything done, continued political and economic gridlock
Read more: www.unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=10102#ixzz227l9d6Bt
=========================================
Nearly all poll leaders 100 days out win presidency
July 30, 2012
Every candidate since 1964 with the lead in Gallup polls about 100 days before the presidential election won the Oval Office except for Michael Dukakis. So what do the polls tell us now?
Not much.
The latest Gallup poll, conducted on a seven-day rolling basis, puts President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney at a tie. Both candidates received 46% support among registered voters.
What’s most striking about past polls is how sharply the electorate can move in one direction or another, even when the frontrunner wins. See Gallup for historical polling results.
In 1992, for example, Bill Clinton held a commanding 56%-36% lead over George H.W. Bush, with independent Ross Perot siphoning off a portion of the vote. Yet Clinton ended up with only 43% of the vote vs. 38% for Bush.
And in 1976 Jimmy Carter’s 54% to 32% advantage over Gerald Ford in mid-summer almost vanished. Carter eked out a victory over Ford by a 50% to 48% margin.
Those two races illustrate another common feature of presidential contests. The gap almost always narrows, sometimes considerably, as the election nears.
Take 1980. Ronald Reagan moved out to a commanding 45% to 29% lead over Carter in an early August poll. Yet Carter tied the race at 39% in mid-September and actually took a lead, 44% to 40%, in mid-October.
In the end, though, late-deciding voters flocked to Reagan as he won 51% to 41%.
The only candidate in the past 12 elections to come from far behind to win was George H.W. Bush in 1988. Dukakis held a 54% to 37% lead in midsummer Gallup polling, but Reagan’s vice president jumped in front in late August and never relinquished his advantage. He won 53% to 46%.
Going further back, John F. Kennedy in 1960, and Harry Truman in 1948, also registered victories despite trailing in the polls 100 days out. The Gallup data go back to 1936.
Below are the midsummer polling numbers of the past 12 elections, with the final percentage of votes in parenthesis.
2008
Barack Obama - 47% (53%)
John McCain – 41% (46%)
2004
George W. Bush – 48% (51%)
John Kerry – 47% (48%)
2000
George W. Bush – 46% (47.9%)
Al Gore – 41% (48.4%)
1996
Bill Clinton – 50% (49%)
Bob Dole – 35% (41%)
Ross Perot - 10% (8%)
1992
Bill Clinton – 56% (43%)
George H.W. Bush – 36% (37.5%)
Ross Perot - Not applicable (19%)
1988
Michael Dukakis – 54% (46%)
George H.W. Bush – 37% (53%)
1984
Ronald Reagan – 53% (59%)
Walter Mondale – 41% (41%)
1980
Ronald Reagan – 45% (51%)
Jimmy Carter – 29% (41%)
John B. Anderson – 14% (7%)
1976
Jimmy Carter – 54% (50%)
Gerald Ford – 32% (48%)
blogs.marketwatch.com/election/2012/07/30/nearly-all-poll-leaders-win-presidency-with-100-days-left/