Post by jeffolie on Oct 21, 2012 11:40:26 GMT -6
When to sell gold, silver, hard assets: TIMING
my jeffolie long term timing includes the comparing hard assets to the stock market. The time to sell metals is a narrow number of days often before the govt squashes the manic move with regulations, rules, etc unless the govt truly destroys the currency [Dollar] with hyperinflation in which case holding metals should be done until a new currency replaces the destroyed Dollar. Assuming that hyperinflation will be squashed based on the example of FED Chairman Volcker, then the window before such a Volcker like future FED Chairman squashes future high inflation in America requires very careful selling timing.
bart posted charts and comments: " ... Little question that we're still very much in a hard asset cycle.
www.nowandfutures.com/images/dow_gold_oil_crb1966-current.png
The cycle has been *very* reliable since before 1900
www.nowandfutures.com/images/dow_gold_oil_crb1900-current.png
my jeffolie reply to bart's posted charts:
By historic standard our inflation is modest while gold now along with selected hard assets have momentum. Inflation has as reported in the main stream media has not yet motivate Americans to widespread hard asset buying ... the mania or delusion of crowds today does not mention hard assets but rather seems to be the safe haven of bonds and large dividend paying stocks. Fear of inflation does not yet motivate fear of holding cash as proven by corporations sitting on over $1 Trillion in cash in America. On the other hand, the fear of holding cash and inflation does move the masses in India and China where holding metals is much more common and widespread. Resulting in about 1/3rd of the worlds' population [combining India and China] now much higher in the manic phase than in the West.
Your very valuable chart combines many ratios for great convenience. It applies very well for America and most likely the EU as well ... not so much for 1/3rd of the worlds' population [combining India and China] now much higher in the manic phase than in the West.
TIMING
When will the West become more like 1/3rd of the worlds' population [combining India and China] now much higher in the manic phase than in the West ? When will the madness of crowds desire hard assets again in the West?
When to sell hard assets?
Your spectacular charts demonstrate that peaks do happen as selling points if the 'rhyme of history' happens, but for now those peaks are not yet attained today.
What happens if the madness of crowds ENDS OR DECLINES in the 1/3rd of the worlds' population [combining India and China] now much higher in the manic phase than in the West ? Hard assets such as copper, steel, oil and precious metals of gold/silver/platinum would suffer price declines. Hard assets no longer bought internationally would lower prices in America as well.
my jeffolie long term timing includes the comparing hard assets to the stock market. The time to sell metals is a narrow number of days often before the govt squashes the manic move with regulations, rules, etc unless the govt truly destroys the currency [Dollar] with hyperinflation in which case holding metals should be done until a new currency replaces the destroyed Dollar. Assuming that hyperinflation will be squashed based on the example of FED Chairman Volcker, then the window before such a Volcker like future FED Chairman squashes future high inflation in America requires very careful selling timing.
bart posted charts and comments: " ... Little question that we're still very much in a hard asset cycle.
www.nowandfutures.com/images/dow_gold_oil_crb1966-current.png
The cycle has been *very* reliable since before 1900
www.nowandfutures.com/images/dow_gold_oil_crb1900-current.png
my jeffolie reply to bart's posted charts:
By historic standard our inflation is modest while gold now along with selected hard assets have momentum. Inflation has as reported in the main stream media has not yet motivate Americans to widespread hard asset buying ... the mania or delusion of crowds today does not mention hard assets but rather seems to be the safe haven of bonds and large dividend paying stocks. Fear of inflation does not yet motivate fear of holding cash as proven by corporations sitting on over $1 Trillion in cash in America. On the other hand, the fear of holding cash and inflation does move the masses in India and China where holding metals is much more common and widespread. Resulting in about 1/3rd of the worlds' population [combining India and China] now much higher in the manic phase than in the West.
Your very valuable chart combines many ratios for great convenience. It applies very well for America and most likely the EU as well ... not so much for 1/3rd of the worlds' population [combining India and China] now much higher in the manic phase than in the West.
TIMING
When will the West become more like 1/3rd of the worlds' population [combining India and China] now much higher in the manic phase than in the West ? When will the madness of crowds desire hard assets again in the West?
When to sell hard assets?
Your spectacular charts demonstrate that peaks do happen as selling points if the 'rhyme of history' happens, but for now those peaks are not yet attained today.
What happens if the madness of crowds ENDS OR DECLINES in the 1/3rd of the worlds' population [combining India and China] now much higher in the manic phase than in the West ? Hard assets such as copper, steel, oil and precious metals of gold/silver/platinum would suffer price declines. Hard assets no longer bought internationally would lower prices in America as well.