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Post by jeffolie on Jan 1, 2013 20:36:36 GMT -6
jeffolie predicts…2013 Predictions January 1st
Make your predictions for 2013.
Here are mine:
jeffolie predicts…2010 food crisis that I made in 2008 will continue in 2013 for selective commodities such as grains with special attention to the seasonal trends for midyear tops from continuing weather issues.
jeffolie predicts...stock market gains to mid year which is the traditional seasonal high hence the long standing cliche of 'sell in May and go away' after the debt limit issue resolves and after the tax filing and tax returns procedures have been finalized by the IRS tweaking the seasonality to possibly coming as early as March.
jeffolie predicts…SCREWFLATION: everything the ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down in value. Taxes, fees, charges, special assessment districts from State, Local, etc governments will rise while services from them will decrease. Energy expenses for homes, cars, electricity will rise compounded by additional taxes and fees. Food prices will rise. Health care/insurance expenses will rise; College Tuition will rise; Mortgage/house payments will rise because interest rates will rise seasonally; Rents will rise. Food Stamp use will make new records. I prefer screwflation over stagflation because of the regressive impact on middle and lower class families' standard of living and that they have no investments that rise with inflation or money printing and in fact usually have their wealth tied up in declining or negative home equity while the upper 20% of earners usually have investments that will rise in 2013 outside of their home equity.
jeffolie predicts… EUROPEAN CRISIS: the financial crisis will increase as the year progresses. Average European families will have their version of screwflation as govt’s increase taxes and cut support. The euro will survive and weaken during 2013.
Jeffolie predicts…US GDP and inflation will decline in 2013 from 2012 using govt. numbers.
jeffolie predicts…US STATES, CITIES, LOCAL AGENCIES CRISIS: major layoffs by the end of 2013, bills will not be paid, some bonds will default.
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Post by jeffolie on Jan 2, 2013 9:35:25 GMT -6
The tax increases most likely will stick, not be changed in the reset in 2 months.
2 month reset
The passed 'fiscal cliff' defers many taxable events for 2 months which sync's up with the expiring debt limit time frame. The resolution of these both will most likely peak up stocks for an earlier than usual stock market peak in 2013 contributing to my Jan 1st pedictions':
" .... jeffolie predicts...stock market gains to mid year which is the traditional seasonal high hence the long standing cliche of 'sell in May and go away' after the debt limit issue resolves and after the tax filing and tax returns procedures have been finalized by the IRS tweaking the seasonality to possibly coming as early as March.
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Post by jeffolie on Jan 2, 2013 12:17:36 GMT -6
my 2013 jeffolie predictions include: higher taxes on the 'average American family' " ... jeffolie predicts…SCREWFLATION: everything the ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down in value. Taxes, fees, charges, special assessment districts from State, Local, etc governments will rise while services from them will decrease. Energy my jeffolie view: this slows the economy leaving less money to spend where it hurts the most, the most common American can least afford to pay out more to govt taxes compared to the type 1 consumer [upper 20% of incomes/wealth] still able to purchase new cars, etc to maintain their type 1 consumer lifestyle. ====================================================== jeffolie predicts…SCREWFLATION: everything the ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down in value. Taxes, fees, charges, special assessment districts from State, Local, etc governments will rise while services from them will decrease. Energy expenses for homes, cars, electricity will rise compounded by additional taxes and fees. Food prices will rise. Health care/insurance expenses will rise; College Tuition will rise; Mortgage/house payments will rise because interest rates will rise seasonally; Rents will rise. Food Stamp use will make new records. I prefer screwflation over stagflation because of the regressive impact on middle and lower class families' standard of living and that they have no investments that rise with inflation or money printing and in fact usually have their wealth tied up in declining or negative home equity while the upper 20% of earners usually have investments that will rise in 2012 outside of their home equity. =================================================== The 'fiscal cliff' con game Many provisions of the legislation meant to avert the "fiscal cliff" involve some sort of con game, Michael Hiltzik writes. January 2, 2013 Whatever the ultimate shape of the "fiscal cliff" solution that has preoccupied all Washington, and a fair swath of the rest of country, in the final days of 2012 and into the new year, Americans of all walks of life should be asking themselves this question: How do we like being conned? The deal, passed by the Senate on New Year's morning, was made final late Tuesday when the House of Representatives signed on. Its essential elements include expiration of the President George W. Bush-era income and capital gains tax cuts on couples' incomes over $450,000, and a modest increase in the estate tax. Unemployment benefits and tax credits for lower-income families will be extended. The payroll tax holiday that replaced a low- and middle-income tax credit in 2009 will end, but the tax credit won't return. Many other items, including the fate of automatic spending cuts mandated by the 2011 debt-ceiling deal, are being put off for weeks or months. Another debt-ceiling fight looms on the near horizon. Almost everything mentioned above involves a con game of one sort or another, because almost none of it is what it seems on the surface. Since such fakery is certain to continue well into the new year, here's a quick guide to its basic features. The deficit con: The big daddy. Despite the lawmakers' claims that the debate has been about closing the federal deficit and reducing the federal debt, none of the negotiating over the past weeks has dealt with those issues. Indeed, the tax and spending package will widen the deficit by some $4 trillion over 10 years, compared with what would happen if the tax increases and spending cuts mandated by existing law were implemented. The House Republican caucus has consistently looked for ways to protect high-income taxpayers from a tax increase, at the expense of beneficiaries of government programs such as enrollees in Social Security and Medicare. If there's a dominant preoccupation with cutting the deficit lurking somewhere in that mind-set, good luck finding it. The shared sacrifice con: If the goal has been for an approach to deficit cutting balanced among economic strata — and Democrats and Republicans both pay lip service to this notion — then the final deal is a fraud. Every working person earning up to $113,700 in wages this year will shoulder an instant tax increase of 2%. That's because the payroll tax holiday enacted in 2010 is expiring. The tax holiday, which cut the employee's share of the Social Security tax to 4.2% from 6.2% of income up to the annual wage cap, was always designed as a temporary stimulus measure. But few people expected that it would expire at a single stroke — and without a countervailing working-class tax credit to soften the blow. Monkeying with the payroll tax was never a great idea, because it undermined Social Security's essential funding mechanism. But what's often forgotten is that the holiday was implemented to replace an existing tax break for the middle class — the Making Work Pay credit—opposed by the GOP. But the credit isn't coming back, so the end of the holiday means a pure tax increase on the 98% of working Americans earning $113,700 or less in wages. For a couple touching, say, $80,000, the increase will come to $1,600. Quiz: How much do you know about the "fiscal cliff?" Compare that with the break reaped by taxpayers declaring income in the $250,000 to $450,000 range. That's the difference between the threshold at which President Obama proposed restoring pre-Bush tax rates and the level enacted by Congress. Exempting that slice of income from higher taxes saves up to $9,200 in taxes for families earning $450,000 or more (depending on the cost of phaseouts of exemptions and deductions for those taxpayers). The estate tax con: There's no purer giveaway to the wealthy than this. The final deal raises the tax to 40% from 35% on estates over $10 million. (That figure is for couples, whose estates are each entitled to a $5-million exemption upon their deaths.) The alternative was to return to 2009 law, which set the tax at 45% on couples' estates more than $7 million. Who pays the estate tax? In 2011, about 1,800 taxpayers died leaving estates of more than $10 million. Their average estate was somewhere from $30 million to $40 million. Their heirs cashed in on some of the most nimble tax planning on Earth: Although the statutory top rate was 35%, the average rate on estates of even $20 million-plus (the average gross value of which was $65 million) came to only 16.2%. Estate tax bonus babies long have been protected by the myth that the tax falls heavily, and unjustly, on small family farms and businesses. The Washington-based Tax Policy Center found, however, that fewer than 50 small farms and businesses paid any estate tax in 2011. Their liability came to less than one-tenth of 1% of the total collected. On the other hand, more than 50% of the estate tax was paid by people whose income placed them in the top tenth of 1% of all taxpayers. These are the people protected by estate tax opponents. The debt ceiling con: The original of this con is what put us at the fiscal cliff in the first place, for the automated spending cuts being dealt with now were put in place as the GOP's price to raise the federal debt ceiling and stave off a government default in 2011. The debt ceiling was not designed as a constraint when it was created in 1917 — it was convenient blanket authority for the Treasury to issue debt so that Congress wouldn't have to vote permission each time a new bond had to be floated. Approval was always routine — the limit was raised 91 times between 1960 and the showdown in 2011. Now it's a hostage-taking situation, destined to return in the next month or two when Republicans who didn't get what they wanted in this week's cliffhanger menace the creditworthiness of the U.S. again. For a brief shining moment, President Obama dreamed of folding an end to the debt limit into a fiscal cliff deal, but that didn't happen. The idea that the debt limit discourages fiscal irresponsibility is a scream. It doesn't now, and never has, stopped Congress from enacting any spending plan or tax break it pleases, creating a budget demand that has to be paid for with, yes, debt. If Congress wants less debt, it can cut spending or raise taxes. The debt limit is a dangerous weapon in the hands of irresponsible legislators, and it's time to take it out of their hands. The bond vigilante con: This is the bedrock con that fuels deficit hawkishness. The idea is that if America doesn't get its debt under control, it will be punished by unhappy bond investors worldwide. U.S. interest rates will soar and the standard of living will plunge. This con depends on voters overlooking that it hasn't happened. U.S. government bonds remain the most sought-after in the world. Remember August 2011, when Standard & Poor's cut America's credit rating because of poor fiscal policy and dysfunctional government? Neither condition has improved, but the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond has fallen from 3.75% to 2.82%, and on the 10-year note from 2.14% to 1.68%. The bogeymen of higher interest rates and inflation that are supposed to follow inevitably from our current level of deficit spending have simply not materialized, and aren't visible on the horizon. Moreover, history suggests that more typically they're responses to vigorous economic growth, not to policies aimed at reviving recovery. That's a clue that the whole fiscal cliff affair is a major con. There is no reason for the country to suffer now the austerity embodied in the spending cuts and tax hikes that were to come due Jan. 1; what's needed is continued stimulus to complete the economic recovery. Indeed, the starkness of the Jan. 1 deadline is itself a con — nothing except its own inaction prevents Congress from temporarily moderating the effects of the cliff by voting to defer tax increases and spending cuts, as it did this week. In the golden age of individualistic rural America so beloved of today's conservative dreamers, people who perpetrated cons such as these would be tarred, feathered and ridden into the sunset on a rail. Today we allow them to set the agenda in Washington. Is that supposed to be progress? www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hiltzik-20130102,0,573514.column
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Post by jeffolie on Jan 5, 2013 18:21:56 GMT -6
March 2013 Politcs: split govt, gridlock PEAK March 2013 Politcs: split govt, gridlock peak as " ... coming as early as March ... " my jeffolie view: my Jan 1st peak as coming as early as March because the politics of the debt ceiling will peak the US economics. " ... the imbalances are so huge that actually fixing the system by gutting both the military empire and the welfare state could never be sold to voters. ... Are the GOP’s defense hawks willing to stomach those cuts as a price for entitlement reform? Having publicly campaigned against this slashing of the military, can the party stare down the president with a unified position? Mr. Obama is betting they can’t, which is precisely why he ensured in the cliff deal that the sequester kicks in at the very time of the debt-ceiling fight. Only the GOP can answer these questions, jeffolie predicts...stock market gains to mid year which is the traditional seasonal high hence the long standing cliche of 'sell in May and go away' after the debt limit issue resolves and after the tax filing and tax returns procedures have been finalized by the IRS tweaking the seasonality to possibly coming as early as March. ====================================== Why We’re Ungovernable, Part 6: Here Comes the Debt Ceiling by John Rubino on January 5, 2013 The fiscal cliff was always going to end with a whimper because that was the obvious path of least resistance. In the end, simply avoiding big tax increases and spending cuts while adding a few more trillion to the coming decade’s deficit was rewarded by the markets with a huge rally. Everybody went home happy, or at least still in possession of their political office. Now we move on to the debt ceiling, which on the surface looks just like the fiscal cliff: A self-imposed set of penalties that can be finessed with the stroke of a pen. But it’s likely to be far messier, for a couple of reasons. First, the republicans got rolled in the fiscal cliff deal because they couldn’t stomach middle class tax increases and defense cuts. They were forced to raise taxes on their main contributors without cutting spending on the democrat base. This was a massive defeat for the supposed party of small government that cannot be repeated short of intra-party civil war. The other reason is that simply raising the debt limit (for the umpteenth time) might actually have some political downside this time around because it requires admitting that Washington’s debt will rise by another $2 trillion in the next year or two, to around $18 trillion. The human mind doesn’t grasp “trillion” very easily, but it does get round numbers like 20, which is now rapidly approaching. Put that new handle in front of something incomprehensible but ominous like trillion – and then note that a decade ago it was below 10 — and you have, as they say within the Beltway, an optics problem. The republicans can exploit this to demand spending cuts. The democrats will refuse on principal and counter with tax increases, and both sides will see a reasonable chance of blaming the other if the thing goes sour. So nothing will get done until checks actually stop being sent out. Here is the Wall Street Journal’s Kimberley Strassel on the republicans’ situation: Strassel: The Debt-Ceiling Fight Will Be Dirty The GOP thinks it will win, but the party’s strategy is far from clear. In the classic movie “The Untouchables,” the street-smart cop Jim Malone explains to his golden-boy partner Eliot Ness that things will have to get dirty if they intend to bring down Al Capone: “You see what I’m saying is, what are you prepared to do?” That’s the question for the GOP as it sifts through the ashes of this week’s cliff deal. The tax-hike extravaganza that President Obama signed on Wednesday was Round One of a bigger deficit fight, and the GOP was battered badly. Poor messaging, an internal tax feud, and a miscalculation of the president’s tactics—all combined to land the private economy with a monstrous tax bill, and the Republican Party with a black eye. On to Round Two, which will center on the debt ceiling due to hit in February. Republicans are convinced they can win this one. Their thinking? The president can’t use the threat of higher middle-class taxes to force the GOP to yield. Without the middle class as a hostage in the negotiations, they believe, the debt-ceiling debate will be entirely on spending and Mr. Obama’s failure to confront the nation’s $16 trillion debt. The White House feels this keenly, as exhibited by the ferocious threats the president leveled in the aftermath of his tax-increase victory. “If the Republicans think that I will finish the job of deficit reduction through spending cuts alone, that’s not how it’s going to work,” he said in a Monday press conference. Translation: He will demand more taxes. The president is steeling himself for Round Two. Are Republicans? For all the happy talk about their leverage in the debt-ceiling fight, this is going to be dirty. What are they prepared to do? They face three big questions. Question one: Do they mean it? In the abstract, the debt ceiling is a powerful tool for forcing the president to give in to spending cuts. The Obama Treasury can’t pay the bills without say-so from the Republican House, so the House holds all the cards. In the non-abstract, failure to raise government borrowing limits means U.S. default—and with it potential credit downgrades, market panic and resulting economic distress. Is the GOP willing to inflict that on the economy? If Republican members instead run for cover, as they did with the cliff, the GOP will have been exposed as bluffers, and the administration will never again have to fear the debt ceiling. Republicans have to consider if they are willing to take that risk. Question two: What do they want? Throughout the fiscal-cliff negotiations, the Republicans kept thinking Mr. Obama would sign on to entitlement reform, giving both parties political cover. In this vain hope, the GOP shrunk from laying out its specific demands on Medicare, Social Security and Medicaid. President Obama didn’t bite, and he won’t in the future. The GOP must know by now that the president’s only goal is to water down any reform proposals. So their only chance of making a dent in the debt is to begin bold. Do House Republicans have the courage to lay out big demands (say, premium support for Medicare or block grants for Medicaid), send a bill to the Senate, and sell entitlement reform to the public? If they can’t face the demagoguery that Democrats will use against them for making substantive proposals on entitlements, then they have already resigned themselves to piddling spending cuts that only nibble around the entitlement edges. Is that worth an epic showdown? Question three: What other hostages are Republicans willing to see shot? Knowing he has lost his tax trump card, Mr. Obama seamlessly moved on this week to the defense budget. The cliff deal turns off the automatic sequester cuts to the military for only two months, and Mr. Obama intends to make further tax hikes the price for anything longer. Are the GOP’s defense hawks willing to stomach those cuts as a price for entitlement reform? Having publicly campaigned against this slashing of the military, can the party stare down the president with a unified position? Mr. Obama is betting they can’t, which is precisely why he ensured in the cliff deal that the sequester kicks in at the very time of the debt-ceiling fight. Only the GOP can answer these questions, but the point here is that Republicans had better have answered them—and clearly—before they step into the ring. The president has every intention of playing them exactly as he did in the cliff, and in 2011. Mr. Obama will lay out tax-hike demands, give no quarter on spending, not waver and, as the deadline approaches, use his bully pulpit and the media to cow the GOP into the sort of wrangling that led to this week’s defeat. If the Republican strategy isn’t crystal clear, if the party is again fractured, then Round Two is already Mr. Obama’s. So once again: What, exactly, is the GOP prepared to do? Some thoughts Now for the big picture question: why is all this happening? How did we morph from a somewhat functional country to one where debt rises in multi-trillion dollar chunks while the politicians who do the borrowing get reelected? The answer, as with so many other things, is the printing press. We’ve been able to simply borrow money and create new currency out of thin air for so many decades that as a society we’ve lost the impulse to prioritize. Instead, we simultaneously build a global military empire and a cradle to grave welfare state, and charge the excess cost to our grandkids. At the same time we develop an aristocracy of bankers and politicians who, because they get first crack at those newly-created dollars, have become all-powerful. As a result both sides, left and right, see the other as having won. The left sees rapacious banks and corporations (the 1%) devastating broad sections of society while vacuuming up an ever-larger share of national wealth. The right sees ever-expanding entitlements and public sector unions crowding out wealth creators and turning the US into a socialist dictatorship (read France). Thanks to the magic of the printing press, they’re both right. So here we are. Each side is so disgusted with the other that bipartisan compromise – which requires a degree of respect – is impossible. And even if it suddenly became possible, the imbalances are so huge that actually fixing the system by gutting both the military empire and the welfare state could never be sold to voters. Fiscal policy, in short, is on auto pilot and the “off” button is disabled. Defense spending growth can be slowed a bit, but only a bit since the right still views the US as the world’s hyperpower and is willing to borrow whatever it takes to maintain this illusion. Entitlement spending can’t even be slowed, given the fact that baby boomers are retiring and have the political clout to guarantee free health care and nice monthly social security payments for the next three decades. No one, left or right, is brave enough to explain to my generation that its demands will bankrupt their grandkids. Add it all up, and US federal spending will rise by 8% a year until the market, not the voters, decides otherwise. This puts all the pressure on monetary policy, the last relatively-pain free disaster-management tool. So here’s a prediction for the near future: After a few weeks of entertaining political theater, the debt ceiling will rise enough to get through the next congressional election. The Fed will continue to buy up most newly-issued Treasury paper but at some point will begin making noises about ending QE. The markets will recoil (stocks will fall, revealing the massive underfunding of state and local pensions, among other things), and politicians will threaten the Fed’s independence. Ben Bernanke or his successor will see no choice but to oblige with more QE. See Japan in late 2012 for a template dollarcollapse.com/politics-2/why-were-ungovernable-part-6-here-comes-the-debt-ceiling/
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Jan 6, 2013 11:34:52 GMT -6
At the same time we develop an aristocracy of bankers and politicians who, because they get first crack at those newly-created dollars, have become all-powerful. Yes indeed. Very well said and exactly right. When the Fed pores newly created dollars into the economy they enter thru the very top of the income spectrum, going in to the pockets of the richest Americans to start with. As a result both sides, left and right, see the other as having won. The left sees rapacious banks and corporations (the 1%) devastating broad sections of society while vacuuming up an ever-larger share of national wealth. The right sees ever-expanding entitlements and public sector unions crowding out wealth creators and turning the US into a socialist dictatorship (read France). Thanks to the magic of the printing press, they’re both right. NO, they are not both right. The Amount of money that goes into Social Welfare and "entitlements" for the poor is pittance compared to the massive giveaways & subsidies that go to the rich and the financial industry. The total amount of Federal money spent on classic "welfare", or TANF (Temporary Aid to Needy Families) is less than $20 billion/year. The total amount going to every type of food support (Food Stamps, school breakfasts, etc.) is in the $100-150 billion range.) Compare this with Bernanke's plan to buy $40 billion/month of MBS from rich banks. Compare it with the TRILLIONS of $$$ already given to banks to purchase back their bad assets. Compare it to the $600-$700 billion Defense budget, of which half is going to private contractors. Compare this to the $700 billion TARP bailout and the purchase of TRILLIONS of dollars of overpriced mortgages by Fannie & Freddie--purchased from Private banks at 2-4x their actual market value--with Taxpayers' money. No, both sides are NOT right. The Plutocrats in Government would like to convey such a myth. But is simply is not true, In total dollar amounts, the richest Americans are receiving the overwhelming majority of Government handouts. The problem is not "all those Welfare mothers & babies." The problem is "all those Welfare banks & Corporations."
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Post by jeffolie on Jan 8, 2013 17:44:04 GMT -6
jeffolie predicts…2013 Predictions January 1st Make your predictions for 2013. Here are mine: jeffolie predicts…2010 food crisis that I made in 2008 will continue in 2013 for selective commodities such as grains with special attention to the seasonal trends for midyear tops from continuing weather issues. jeffolie predicts...stock market gains to mid year which is the traditional seasonal high hence the long standing cliche of 'sell in May and go away' after the debt limit issue resolves and after the tax filing and tax returns procedures have been finalized by the IRS tweaking the seasonality to possibly coming as early as March. jeffolie predicts…SCREWFLATION: everything the ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down in value. Taxes, fees, charges, special assessment districts from State, Local, etc governments will rise while services from them will decrease. Energy expenses for homes, cars, electricity will rise compounded by additional taxes and fees. Food prices will rise. Health care/insurance expenses will rise; College Tuition will rise; Mortgage/house payments will rise because interest rates will rise seasonally; Rents will rise. Food Stamp use will make new records. I prefer screwflation over stagflation because of the regressive impact on middle and lower class families' standard of living and that they have no investments that rise with inflation or money printing and in fact usually have their wealth tied up in declining or negative home equity while the upper 20% of earners usually have investments that will rise in 2012 outside of their home equity. jeffolie predicts… EUROPEAN CRISIS: the financial crisis will increase as the year progresses. Average European families will have their version of screwflation as govt’s increase taxes and cut support. The euro will survive and weaken during 2013. Jeffolie predicts…US GDP and inflation will decline in 2013 from 2012 using govt. numbers. jeffolie predicts…US STATES, CITIES, LOCAL AGENCIES CRISIS: major layoffs by the end of 2013, bills will not be paid, some bonds will default. " .... jeffolie predicts...stock market gains to mid year which is the traditional seasonal high hence the long standing cliche of 'sell in May and go away' after the debt limit issue resolves and after the tax filing and tax returns procedures have been finalized by the IRS tweaking the seasonality to possibly coming as early as March. IRS Delays Tax-Filing Start Until Jan. 30 After Budget Deal Jan 8, 2013 The Internal Revenue Service will start processing individual income tax returns for 2012 on Jan. 30. More than 120 million households, or the vast majority of U.S. tax filers, will be able to file returns as of the end of this month, the IRS said in a statement today. The remainder, such as those who claim general business credits, will have to wait until late February or March because the IRS needs time to update forms. The delay for filers results from Congress passing last- minute changes to tax law on Jan. 1. “We have worked hard to open tax season as soon as possible,” Steven Miller, the acting IRS commissioner, said in a statement. “This date ensures we have the time we need to update and test our processing systems.” The IRS had planned to open electronic filing this year on Jan. 22. “This is difficult news,” said Kathy Pickering, executive director of the Tax Institute at H&R Block Inc. (HRB), which is the largest U.S. tax preparer. “No one will be getting a refund in January.” ‘Thin Month’ Those who can afford it least will be among those most affected by the delay, Pickering said. That’s because many of the earliest filers each year are low-income, working families who claim the earned income tax credit and use their refunds to pay bills or get their cars repaired. “This is a lifeline for these individuals and families,” Pickering said. “January is going to be a pretty thin month for a lot of people.” The IRS had said last month that it might delay tax-filing season for as many as 100 million households, or two-thirds of the total, if Congress didn’t reach an end-of-year budget agreement. The legislation signed by President Barack Obama on Jan. 2 averted most of the $600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts -- known as the fiscal cliff -- that were scheduled to take effect this month if Congress didn’t act. The law also affected tax provisions that were pending for 2012 returns. It permanently indexed the alternative minimum tax to inflation, preventing it from expanding to more households, and extended tax credits that expired at the end of 2011 such as those for energy improvements and businesses. Companies including H&R Block and Intuit Inc. (INTU)’s TurboTax said they have readied tax-preparation products for the recent tax-law changes and software will update automatically or prompt users to make changes when they log on. “TurboTax is up to date with all recent tax-law changes so taxpayers can file early and be first in line to get their refund,” Ashley McMahon, a spokeswoman for TurboTax, said in an e-mail. “Once the IRS begins accepting e-filed returns on Jan. 30, TurboTax submits returns on a first-in, first-out basis.” www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-08/irs-sets-tax-filing-season-start-for-jan-30-after-budget-deal.html
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Post by jeffolie on Jan 8, 2013 18:28:12 GMT -6
The current buying for investments: Blackrock Group flipping and selling rental income investments ... will continue as long as good profits come to Blackrock Group
When the profits disappear, then the buying will disappear ... ending the current price rises mostly happening in the lower end housing.
Demand for rentals has surged as proven by the declining vacancy rate ... this trend remains in place but will not last forever ... I advocate trend following.
my Jan 1st jeffolie predictions for 2013 DOES NOT INCLUDE HOUSE PRICES ... I do not have a great level of confidence for predicting 2013 housing prices this year ... long term and into the predicted 2016 START of an economic and political bottoming period maybe 10 years should prohibit higher housing prices after adjusting for inflation because median incomes adjusted for inflaton will decline into 2016 and beyond along with a declining birthrate, marriage rate.
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Post by jeffolie on Jan 10, 2013 17:10:50 GMT -6
my jeffolie view: seasonality appears normal this year, 2013 with the most likely chance of an early peak as soon as March in 2013 for assets including stocks, metals, US interest rates and the Euro etc. with the Halloween general time period low period also most likely in 2013 for these assets.
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jeffolie predicts…2013 Predictions January 1st
Make your predictions for 2013.
Here are mine:
jeffolie predicts…2010 food crisis that I made in 2008 will continue in 2013 for selective commodities such as grains with special attention to the seasonal trends for midyear tops from continuing weather issues.
jeffolie predicts...stock market gains to mid year which is the traditional seasonal high hence the long standing cliche of 'sell in May and go away' after the debt limit issue resolves and after the tax filing and tax returns procedures have been finalized by the IRS tweaking the seasonality to possibly coming as early as March.
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Post by jeffolie on Jan 20, 2013 13:57:45 GMT -6
my jeffolie view: seasonality appears normal this year, 2013 with the most likely chance of an early peak as soon as March in 2013 for assets including stocks, metals, US interest rates and the Euro etc. with the Halloween general time period low period also most likely in 2013 for these assets. ========================================= jeffolie predicts…2013 Predictions January 1st Make your predictions for 2013. Here are mine: jeffolie predicts…2010 food crisis that I made in 2008 will continue in 2013 for selective commodities such as grains with special attention to the seasonal trends for midyear tops from continuing weather issues. jeffolie predicts...stock market gains to mid year which is the traditional seasonal high hence the long standing cliche of 'sell in May and go away' after the debt limit issue resolves and after the tax filing and tax returns procedures have been finalized by the IRS tweaking the seasonality to possibly coming as early as March. "... There is one caveat here. Last winter was the warmest winter on record in 65 years which skewed much of the seasonal data by allowing work to continue when normally workers would have been shut in due to inclement weather. We are seeing the exact same anomalies occur this year as the winter is currently the warmest in the last 55 years combined, and when combined with lower energy prices, is giving a temporary boost to incomes. The skews to seasonal adjustments will also boost economic reports to seem better than they actually are. As we witnessed in 2012 - when the seasonal adjustments come back into alignment in the spring the drop off in reported economic activity will be fairly severe. my jeffolie view: seasonality appears normal this year, 2013 with the most likely chance of an early peak as soon as March in 2013 for assets including stocks, metals, US interest rates and the Euro etc. with the Halloween general time period low period also most likely in 2013 for these assets. ================================= The Economic Recovery Story 01/19/2013 Via Lance Roberts of StreetTalk Live, The market has been rallying over the last few weeks as the bulls have definitely taken charge in the New Year. Most of the recent analysis has pointed to signs of an improving economy and stronger employment as the driving force behind the advance. My view has clearly been that it has been the impact of the Fed's liquidity injections pushing asset prices higher. The charts of the day show two different aspects of the current economic environment from output to employment. The first chart is my economic output composite index. This index is comprised of the Chicago Fed National Activity Report, ISM Composite Index, several Fed Manufacturing Regional Surveys, Chicago PMI and the NFIB small business survey. This is a very broad economic composite index covering the entire country. www.streettalklive.com/images/stories/1dailyxchange/STA-EOCI-Index-011813.PNGWhile this index has ticked up slightly post the impact of Hurricane Sandy, as we said was likely to happen, the index remains mired at levels normally associated with slower economic growth. The recent drags in consumer confidence and slower manufacturing reports in recent weeks continue to point towards a very sluggish economic environment currently. The second chart of the day is the STA Employment Composite Index. This indexed is comprised of the employment components of the major surveys utilized in the economic output index. www.streettalklive.com/images/stories/1dailyxchange/STA-Employment-Index-011813.PNGWhile employment numbers have been improving mildly over the last couple of months, mostly due to seasonal hires for the holiday shopping season, real full time employment has waned. To see how this index relates to actual unemployment I have overlaid the index in the next chart with unemployment claims (inverted rhs). www.streettalklive.com/images/stories/1dailyxchange/STA-Employment-Index-011813-2.PNGAs you will see downturns in the employment index, not surprisingly, leads changes to unemployment claims. Currently, this chart suggests that aside from seasonal adjustments and anomalies we should begin seeing an increase in claims in the months ahead. There is one caveat here. Last winter was the warmest winter on record in 65 years which skewed much of the seasonal data by allowing work to continue when normally workers would have been shut in due to inclement weather. We are seeing the exact same anomalies occur this year as the winter is currently the warmest in the last 55 years combined, and when combined with lower energy prices, is giving a temporary boost to incomes. The skews to seasonal adjustments will also boost economic reports to seem better than they actually are. As we witnessed in 2012 - when the seasonal adjustments come back into alignment in the spring the drop off in reported economic activity will be fairly severe. Is the recent rally being driven by expectations of a strong economy ahead or is it just the continue chase of a stimulus fueled asset prices? That is up for you to decide. For me the evidence seems pretty clear that the economy remains very weak. Of course, if the economy was truly improving we would have no need for monthly injections of $85 billion...would we? www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-19/guest-post-charts-day-economic-recovery-story
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Post by jeffolie on Feb 1, 2013 12:55:35 GMT -6
jeffolie predicts…2013 Predictions January 1st Make your predictions for 2013. Here are mine: jeffolie predicts…2010 food crisis that I made in 2008 will continue in 2013 for selective commodities such as grains with special attention to the seasonal trends for midyear tops from continuing weather issues. jeffolie predicts...stock market gains to mid year which is the traditional seasonal high hence the long standing cliche of 'sell in May and go away' after the debt limit issue resolves and after the tax filing and tax returns procedures have been finalized by the IRS tweaking the seasonality to possibly coming as early as March. jeffolie predicts…SCREWFLATION: everything the ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down in value. Taxes, fees, charges, special assessment districts from State, Local, etc governments will rise while services from them will decrease. Energy expenses for homes, cars, electricity will rise compounded by additional taxes and fees. Food prices will rise. Health care/insurance expenses will rise; College Tuition will rise; Mortgage/house payments will rise because interest rates will rise seasonally; Rents will rise. Food Stamp use will make new records. I prefer screwflation over stagflation because of the regressive impact on middle and lower class families' standard of living and that they have no investments that rise with inflation or money printing and in fact usually have their wealth tied up in declining or negative home equity while the upper 20% of earners usually have investments that will rise in 2013 outside of their home equity. jeffolie predicts… EUROPEAN CRISIS: the financial crisis will increase as the year progresses. Average European families will have their version of screwflation as govt’s increase taxes and cut support. The euro will survive and weaken during 2013. Jeffolie predicts…US GDP and inflation will decline in 2013 from 2012 using govt. numbers. jeffolie predicts…US STATES, CITIES, LOCAL AGENCIES CRISIS: major layoffs by the end of 2013, bills will not be paid, some bonds will default. jeffolie predicts…US STATES, CITIES, LOCAL AGENCIES CRISIS: major layoffs by the end of 2013, bills will not be paid, some bonds will default.2.bp.blogspot.com/-IbXv394keU8/UQvrud2HyUI/AAAAAAAAYKI/EW7XM9u7Ox8/s1600/stateLocalJan2013.jpg---------------------------------------------- " ... This graph shows total state and government payroll employment since January 2007. State and local governments lost 129,000 jobs in 2009, 262,000 in 2010, and 239,000 in 2011. In 2012, state and local government employment declined by 32,000 jobs.
In January 2013, state and local governments lost another 4,000 jobs.
It appears most of the state and local government layoffs are over, however state and local government employment is still trending down slightly.
Of course the Federal government layoffs are ongoing with another 5,000 jobs lost in January.Read more at www.calculatedriskblog.com/#jsGHq3Z01PrSPZy2.99
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Post by jeffolie on Feb 10, 2013 12:20:12 GMT -6
jeffolie predicts…2013 Predictions January 1st Make your predictions for 2013. Here are mine: .... Jeffolie predicts…US GDP and inflation will decline in 2013 from 2012 using govt. numbers.
..... jeffolie predicts…US STATES, CITIES, LOCAL AGENCIES CRISIS: major layoffs by the end of 2013, bills will not be paid, some bonds will default. Both of the above 2 predictions would be supported by American govt cutting back on spending because of POLITICS MATTERS efforts to reduce the debt/deficits as shown in the below graphic: www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/graph-sunday-copy3.jpg
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Post by jeffolie on Feb 11, 2013 14:30:48 GMT -6
jeffolie predicts…2013 Predictions January 1st Make your predictions for 2013. Here are mine: " ... jeffolie predicts…SCREWFLATION: .... Food Stamp use will make new records. ... Households On Foodstamps Rise To New Record02/11/2013 While hardly presented by the mainstream media with the same panache dedicated to the monthly ARIMA-X-12 seasonally-adjusted, climate-affected, goal-seek devised non-farm payroll data, the three month delayed Foodstamp number is according to many a far greater attestation to the "effectiveness" of the Obama administration to turn the economy around. And far greater it is: since his inauguration, the US has generated just 841,000 jobs through November 2012, a number is more than dwarfed by the 17.3 million new foodstamps and disability recipients added to the rolls in the past 4 years. And since the start of the depression in December 2007, America has seen those on foodstamps and disability increase by 21.8 million, while losing 3.6 million jobs. End result: total number of foodstamp recipients as of November: 47.7 million, an increase of 141,000 from the prior month, and reversing the brief downturn in October, while total US households on foodstamps just hit an all time record of 23,017,768, an increase of 73,952 from the prior month. The cost to the government to keep these 23 million households content and not rising up? $281.21 per month per household. Total Americans on foodstamps: www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/01/Foodstamp%20Recipients.jpgTotal households on foodstamps and average benefit per household: www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/01/Households%20SNAP%20Nov.jpgMonthly change in Foodstamp and Disability recipients vs jobs since December 2007: www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/01/Foodstamp%20Disability%20vs%20Jobs.jpgCumulative change in jobs vs Foodstamps and Disability Recipients: www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/01/Cumulative%20Foodstamp%20Disability%20vs%20Jobs.jpgSource: SNAP www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-11/chart-day-households-foodstamps-rise-new-record
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Post by jeffolie on Feb 20, 2013 9:16:52 GMT -6
jeffolie predicts…2013 Predictions January 1st Make your predictions for 2013. Here are mine: jeffolie predicts…US STATES, CITIES, LOCAL AGENCIES CRISIS: major layoffs by the end of 2013, bills will not be paid, some bonds will default. February 20, 2013 Review team: Detroit faces financial crisis, has no plan to fix it Fiscal emergency tied to cash crunch, deficits, long-term liabilities Detroit — For the second time in a year, a state review team has found Detroit is in a financial emergency that requires Gov. Rick Snyder to intervene in City Hall. But this time, if Snyder agrees that a financial emergency exists, the governor's choices are more limited. He could appoint an emergency manager to keep Michigan's largest city from plunging into bankruptcy, experts say, or he could continue state financial supervision through a new consent agreement, which seems a faint possibility. State Treasurer Andy Dillon ruled out a bankruptcy filing at this time. The six-member review team unanimously concluded in a report released Tuesday that the city failed to restructure its debt-laden bureaucracy under the financial consent agreement signed in April and that Detroit's financial crisis requires Snyder's intervention "because no satisfactory plan exists to resolve a serious financial problem." "We gave the city every chance to avoid the outcome we're recommending to the governor today," said Dillon, who led the review team. He was more direct in an interview after the press conference. "The city doesn't have more time," Dillon said. "They have limited cash right now, limited ability to access capital markets. I kind of think they've got one more bite of the apple to get it right." In a sobering report to Snyder, the review team found Detroit has: A cash-flow deficit of more than $100 million without "significant spending cuts" by June 30, on top of an accumulated deficit of $327 million. $14.9 billion, including unfunded pension and employee retirement liabilities. The city also needs $1.9 billion during the next five years to make payments for the liabilities, but city officials have no debt payment plan. Accumulated deficits in the general fund of $155.4 million to $331.9 million annually since the 2005 fiscal year. Dillon said the city has been "masking over" annual deficits with long-term borrowing. The report said that without the borrowing, the deficits would total $937 million in fiscal year 2012. "We believe there's a financial emergency in the city and that there's no plan in place to correct the situation," Dillon said. Chapter 9 bankruptcy is "always a possibility but I don't think the city should go through (Chapter) 9 to cure its ailments," he added. The review team said the city's charter adds "numerous restrictions" and hurdles for closing departments, canceling contracts and the type of wholesale restructuring financial experts say is necessary to make city government live within its means. Under the consent agreement, progress in restructuring the city has been slowed by lawsuits and council moves like rejecting a bid to make Belle Isle a state park. James McTevia, a Bingham Farms private-sector turnaround specialist, said the report showed Snyder can't avoid appointing an emergency manager like he did in 2012. "It's clear there is no way Mayor (Dave) Bing and the government are going to be able to solve the problem — because they can't," McTevia said. "People aren't going to be happy, but what are they going to do? Let Detroit collapse into a deterioration where there is lawlessness in the streets?" Bing and Council President Charles Pugh said they were not surprised by the review team's findings. "The question is: What is the governor going to do?" Pugh said. Bing said Snyder has issues to consider before installing an emergency manager. "If the governor decides to appoint an emergency financial manager, he or she, like my administration, is going to need resources — particularly in the form of cash and additional staff." Clock ticking for gov Last week, Snyder said his administration has been "talking" to possible candidates for emergency manager of Detroit. But Snyder still could negotiate another consent pact with Bing and the Detroit City Council, Dillon said. "That's for him to consider. He'll take his time to study the report and be thoughtful." Another review team member, Frederick Headen, said Detroit residents deserve better. "Right now the residents of Detroit pay exorbitant taxes and have very little to show for it," said Headen, a legal adviser to the state Treasury Department. "That needs to change." Snyder has 30 days to accept or reject the review team's findings, but there's no statutory deadline for him to appoint an emergency manager, if that's what he chooses to do. There hasn't been a situation in which an emergency was declared in Michigan and an emergency manager was not appointed. However, the governor faces a March 28 deadline to appoint a manager before a new emergency manager law goes into effect. Under the new law, any emergency manager in place under the old law remains without the approval of local officials. When the new law takes effect, the emergency financial manager would have the legal power to tear up and redo labor contracts. If Snyder declares a financial emergency, Bing or the City Council has 10 days to request a hearing to ask Snyder or a representative of his choosing to reconsider the declaration. Outside experts said Monday they think Detroit is on a collision course for an emergency financial manager — a fate that Bing and the nine-member City Council still hope to avoid. "A lot of the ingredients for the turnaround of the city are in place," Dillon said. "Now we have to execute." Reaction mixed Community activist Sandra Hines objected to the review team's finding. She is part of the group Free Detroit No Consent, which opposed the city's consent agreement with the state. "We have a mayor. We have a council," Hines said. "We feel it's nothing the city can't handle." Municipal bankruptcy expert Douglas Bernstein said state officials may have concluded it's time to face Detroit's financial problems head-on. "It's a realization that what's been going on hasn't worked in providing a cure and it's an admission that we've hit rock bottom (or) close to hitting rock bottom." At a community meeting Tuesday night, Councilman James Tate said the city has made progress reducing its debt. But he doesn't see how the state could quickly resolve the city's long-term debt issues. "How are you going to do it in a short period of time?" clivengood@detroitnews.com (517) 371-3660 Staff Writers Gary Heinlein and Candice Williams contributed. What’s next Gov. Rick Snyder gets 30 days to accept or reject the review team's finding that Detroit has a "financial emergency." If Snyder agrees that an emergency exists, Detroit Mayor Dave Bing or the nine-member City Council can request a hearing to reconsider his finding within 10 days. Snyder or someone he selects would conduct the hearing and decide whether to confirm or revoke his earlier decision. If Snyder decides on an emergency manager, he has said he would want to select one quickly — even though there is no statutory time limit to choose one. The decision to pursue an emergency manager, experts said, would likely occur before a new law takes effect on March 28 giving an emergency financial manager broader powers — and giving Detroit the choice of four remedy options to pursue: mediation, another consent decree, a bankruptcy filing or an emergency financial manager. Why a financial emergency was declared <cci:bullet class="macro" displayname="bullet" name="bullet"/>Cash crunch: A cumulative cash deficit estimated at $100 million by June 30. Reforms by the council and Mayor Dave Bing have been weighted toward one-time savings and apply only to non-union employees. Budget deficits: If the city hadn't issued debt bonds, its accumulated deficits since 2004 would total $936.8 million in fiscal year 2012. The deficit is $326 million for the current year. Long-term liabilities: On June 30, 2012, the city’s long-term liabilities exceeded $14 billion. The city needs $1.9 billion to fund certain liabilities during the next five years but there is no plan how to do so. City charter: The charter contains numerous restrictions and structural impediments that make it difficult for city officials to restructure operations in a timely manner. From The Detroit News: www.detroitnews.com/article/20130220/METRO01/302200361#ixzz2LS7Q8TIv
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Post by jeffolie on Mar 2, 2013 16:54:48 GMT -6
jeffolie predicts…2013 Predictions January 1st Make your predictions for 2013. Here are mine: jeffolie predicts…US STATES, CITIES, LOCAL AGENCIES CRISIS: major layoffs by the end of 2013, bills will not be paid, some bonds will default. February 20, 2013 Review team: Detroit faces financial crisis, has no plan to fix it Fiscal emergency tied to cash crunch, deficits, long-term liabilities Detroit — For the second time in a year, a state review team has found Detroit is in a financial emergency that requires Gov. Rick Snyder to intervene in City Hall. But this time, if Snyder agrees that a financial emergency exists, the governor's choices are more limited. He could appoint an emergency manager to keep Michigan's largest city from plunging into bankruptcy, experts say, or he could continue state financial supervision through a new consent agreement, which seems a faint possibility. State Treasurer Andy Dillon ruled out a bankruptcy filing at this time. The six-member review team unanimously concluded in a report released Tuesday that the city failed to restructure its debt-laden bureaucracy under the financial consent agreement signed in April and that Detroit's financial crisis requires Snyder's intervention "because no satisfactory plan exists to resolve a serious financial problem." "We gave the city every chance to avoid the outcome we're recommending to the governor today," said Dillon, who led the review team. He was more direct in an interview after the press conference. "The city doesn't have more time," Dillon said. "They have limited cash right now, limited ability to access capital markets. I kind of think they've got one more bite of the apple to get it right." In a sobering report to Snyder, the review team found Detroit has: A cash-flow deficit of more than $100 million without "significant spending cuts" by June 30, on top of an accumulated deficit of $327 million. $14.9 billion, including unfunded pension and employee retirement liabilities. The city also needs $1.9 billion during the next five years to make payments for the liabilities, but city officials have no debt payment plan. Accumulated deficits in the general fund of $155.4 million to $331.9 million annually since the 2005 fiscal year. Dillon said the city has been "masking over" annual deficits with long-term borrowing. The report said that without the borrowing, the deficits would total $937 million in fiscal year 2012. "We believe there's a financial emergency in the city and that there's no plan in place to correct the situation," Dillon said. Chapter 9 bankruptcy is "always a possibility but I don't think the city should go through (Chapter) 9 to cure its ailments," he added. The review team said the city's charter adds "numerous restrictions" and hurdles for closing departments, canceling contracts and the type of wholesale restructuring financial experts say is necessary to make city government live within its means. Under the consent agreement, progress in restructuring the city has been slowed by lawsuits and council moves like rejecting a bid to make Belle Isle a state park. James McTevia, a Bingham Farms private-sector turnaround specialist, said the report showed Snyder can't avoid appointing an emergency manager like he did in 2012. "It's clear there is no way Mayor (Dave) Bing and the government are going to be able to solve the problem — because they can't," McTevia said. "People aren't going to be happy, but what are they going to do? Let Detroit collapse into a deterioration where there is lawlessness in the streets?" Bing and Council President Charles Pugh said they were not surprised by the review team's findings. "The question is: What is the governor going to do?" Pugh said. Bing said Snyder has issues to consider before installing an emergency manager. "If the governor decides to appoint an emergency financial manager, he or she, like my administration, is going to need resources — particularly in the form of cash and additional staff." Clock ticking for gov Last week, Snyder said his administration has been "talking" to possible candidates for emergency manager of Detroit. But Snyder still could negotiate another consent pact with Bing and the Detroit City Council, Dillon said. "That's for him to consider. He'll take his time to study the report and be thoughtful." Another review team member, Frederick Headen, said Detroit residents deserve better. "Right now the residents of Detroit pay exorbitant taxes and have very little to show for it," said Headen, a legal adviser to the state Treasury Department. "That needs to change." Snyder has 30 days to accept or reject the review team's findings, but there's no statutory deadline for him to appoint an emergency manager, if that's what he chooses to do. There hasn't been a situation in which an emergency was declared in Michigan and an emergency manager was not appointed. However, the governor faces a March 28 deadline to appoint a manager before a new emergency manager law goes into effect. Under the new law, any emergency manager in place under the old law remains without the approval of local officials. When the new law takes effect, the emergency financial manager would have the legal power to tear up and redo labor contracts. If Snyder declares a financial emergency, Bing or the City Council has 10 days to request a hearing to ask Snyder or a representative of his choosing to reconsider the declaration. Outside experts said Monday they think Detroit is on a collision course for an emergency financial manager — a fate that Bing and the nine-member City Council still hope to avoid. "A lot of the ingredients for the turnaround of the city are in place," Dillon said. "Now we have to execute." Reaction mixed Community activist Sandra Hines objected to the review team's finding. She is part of the group Free Detroit No Consent, which opposed the city's consent agreement with the state. "We have a mayor. We have a council," Hines said. "We feel it's nothing the city can't handle." Municipal bankruptcy expert Douglas Bernstein said state officials may have concluded it's time to face Detroit's financial problems head-on. "It's a realization that what's been going on hasn't worked in providing a cure and it's an admission that we've hit rock bottom (or) close to hitting rock bottom." At a community meeting Tuesday night, Councilman James Tate said the city has made progress reducing its debt. But he doesn't see how the state could quickly resolve the city's long-term debt issues. "How are you going to do it in a short period of time?" clivengood@detroitnews.com (517) 371-3660 Staff Writers Gary Heinlein and Candice Williams contributed. What’s next Gov. Rick Snyder gets 30 days to accept or reject the review team's finding that Detroit has a "financial emergency." If Snyder agrees that an emergency exists, Detroit Mayor Dave Bing or the nine-member City Council can request a hearing to reconsider his finding within 10 days. Snyder or someone he selects would conduct the hearing and decide whether to confirm or revoke his earlier decision. If Snyder decides on an emergency manager, he has said he would want to select one quickly — even though there is no statutory time limit to choose one. The decision to pursue an emergency manager, experts said, would likely occur before a new law takes effect on March 28 giving an emergency financial manager broader powers — and giving Detroit the choice of four remedy options to pursue: mediation, another consent decree, a bankruptcy filing or an emergency financial manager. Why a financial emergency was declared <cci:bullet class="macro" displayname="bullet" name="bullet"/>Cash crunch: A cumulative cash deficit estimated at $100 million by June 30. Reforms by the council and Mayor Dave Bing have been weighted toward one-time savings and apply only to non-union employees. Budget deficits: If the city hadn't issued debt bonds, its accumulated deficits since 2004 would total $936.8 million in fiscal year 2012. The deficit is $326 million for the current year. Long-term liabilities: On June 30, 2012, the city’s long-term liabilities exceeded $14 billion. The city needs $1.9 billion to fund certain liabilities during the next five years but there is no plan how to do so. City charter: The charter contains numerous restrictions and structural impediments that make it difficult for city officials to restructure operations in a timely manner. From The Detroit News: www.detroitnews.com/article/20130220/METRO01/302200361#ixzz2LS7Q8TIvFebruary 20, 2013 Review team: Detroit faces financial crisis, has no plan to fix it Fiscal emergency tied to cash crunch, deficits, long-term liabilities Detroit ¡ª For the second time in a year, a state review team has found Detroit is in a financial emergency that requires Gov. Rick Snyder to intervene in City Hall. But this time, if Snyder agrees that a financial emergency exists, the governor's choices are more limited. He could appoint an emergency manager to keep Michigan's largest city from plunging into bankruptcy, experts say, or he could continue state financial supervision through a new consent agreement, which seems a faint possibility. State Treasurer Andy Dillon ruled out a bankruptcy filing at this time. The six-member review team unanimously concluded in a report released Tuesday that the city failed to restructure its debt-laden bureaucracy under the financial consent agreement signed in April and that Detroit's financial crisis requires Snyder's intervention "because no satisfactory plan exists to resolve a serious financial problem." "We gave the city every chance to avoid the outcome we're recommending to the governor today," said Dillon, who led the review team. He was more direct in an interview after the press conference. "The city doesn't have more time," Dillon said. "They have limited cash right now, limited ability to access capital markets. I kind of think they've got one more bite of the apple to get it right." In a sobering report to Snyder, the review team found Detroit has: A cash-flow deficit of more than $100 million without "significant spending cuts" by June 30, on top of an accumulated deficit of $327 million. $14.9 billion, including unfunded pension and employee retirement liabilities. The city also needs $1.9 billion during the next five years to make payments for the liabilities, but city officials have no debt payment plan. Accumulated deficits in the general fund of $155.4 million to $331.9 million annually since the 2005 fiscal year. Dillon said the city has been "masking over" annual deficits with long-term borrowing. The report said that without the borrowing, the deficits would total $937 million in fiscal year 2012. "We believe there's a financial emergency in the city and that there's no plan in place to correct the situation," Dillon said. Chapter 9 bankruptcy is "always a possibility but I don't think the city should go through (Chapter) 9 to cure its ailments," he added. The review team said the city's charter adds "numerous restrictions" and hurdles for closing departments, canceling contracts and the type of wholesale restructuring financial experts say is necessary to make city government live within its means. Under the consent agreement, progress in restructuring the city has been slowed by lawsuits and council moves like rejecting a bid to make Belle Isle a state park. James McTevia, a Bingham Farms private-sector turnaround specialist, said the report showed Snyder can't avoid appointing an emergency manager like he did in 2012. "It's clear there is no way Mayor (Dave) Bing and the government are going to be able to solve the problem ¡ª because they can't," McTevia said. "People aren't going to be happy, but what are they going to do? Let Detroit collapse into a deterioration where there is lawlessness in the streets?" Bing and Council President Charles Pugh said they were not surprised by the review team's findings. "The question is: What is the governor going to do?" Pugh said. Bing said Snyder has issues to consider before installing an emergency manager. "If the governor decides to appoint an emergency financial manager, he or she, like my administration, is going to need resources ¡ª particularly in the form of cash and additional staff." Clock ticking for gov Last week, Snyder said his administration has been "talking" to possible candidates for emergency manager of Detroit. But Snyder still could negotiate another consent pact with Bing and the Detroit City Council, Dillon said. "That's for him to consider. He'll take his time to study the report and be thoughtful." Another review team member, Frederick Headen, said Detroit residents deserve better. "Right now the residents of Detroit pay exorbitant taxes and have very little to show for it," said Headen, a legal adviser to the state Treasury Department. "That needs to change." Snyder has 30 days to accept or reject the review team's findings, but there's no statutory deadline for him to appoint an emergency manager, if that's what he chooses to do. There hasn't been a situation in which an emergency was declared in Michigan and an emergency manager was not appointed. However, the governor faces a March 28 deadline to appoint a manager before a new emergency manager law goes into effect. Under the new law, any emergency manager in place under the old law remains without the approval of local officials. When the new law takes effect, the emergency financial manager would have the legal power to tear up and redo labor contracts. If Snyder declares a financial emergency, Bing or the City Council has 10 days to request a hearing to ask Snyder or a representative of his choosing to reconsider the declaration. Outside experts said Monday they think Detroit is on a collision course for an emergency financial manager ¡ª a fate that Bing and the nine-member City Council still hope to avoid. "A lot of the ingredients for the turnaround of the city are in place," Dillon said. "Now we have to execute." Reaction mixed Community activist Sandra Hines objected to the review team's finding. She is part of the group Free Detroit No Consent, which opposed the city's consent agreement with the state. "We have a mayor. We have a council," Hines said. "We feel it's nothing the city can't handle." Municipal bankruptcy expert Douglas Bernstein said state officials may have concluded it's time to face Detroit's financial problems head-on. "It's a realization that what's been going on hasn't worked in providing a cure and it's an admission that we've hit rock bottom (or) close to hitting rock bottom." At a community meeting Tuesday night, Councilman James Tate said the city has made progress reducing its debt. But he doesn't see how the state could quickly resolve the city's long-term debt issues. "How are you going to do it in a short period of time?" clivengood@detroitnews.com (517) 371-3660 Staff Writers Gary Heinlein and Candice Williams contributed. What¡¯s next Gov. Rick Snyder gets 30 days to accept or reject the review team's finding that Detroit has a "financial emergency." If Snyder agrees that an emergency exists, Detroit Mayor Dave Bing or the nine-member City Council can request a hearing to reconsider his finding within 10 days. Snyder or someone he selects would conduct the hearing and decide whether to confirm or revoke his earlier decision. If Snyder decides on an emergency manager, he has said he would want to select one quickly ¡ª even though there is no statutory time limit to choose one. The decision to pursue an emergency manager, experts said, would likely occur before a new law takes effect on March 28 giving an emergency financial manager broader powers ¡ª and giving Detroit the choice of four remedy options to pursue: mediation, another consent decree, a bankruptcy filing or an emergency financial manager. Why a financial emergency was declared <cci:bullet class="macro" displayname="bullet" name="bullet"/>Cash crunch: A cumulative cash deficit estimated at $100 million by June 30. Reforms by the council and Mayor Dave Bing have been weighted toward one-time savings and apply only to non-union employees. Budget deficits: If the city hadn't issued debt bonds, its accumulated deficits since 2004 would total $936.8 million in fiscal year 2012. The deficit is $326 million for the current year. Long-term liabilities: On June 30, 2012, the city¡¯s long-term liabilities exceeded $14 billion. The city needs $1.9 billion to fund certain liabilities during the next five years but there is no plan how to do so. City charter: The charter contains numerous restrictions and structural impediments that make it difficult for city officials to restructure operations in a timely manner. From The Detroit News: www.detroitnews.com/article/20130220/METRO01/302200361#ixzz2LS7Q8TIv[/quote]State Takeover Looms In Detroit March 1, 2013 DETROIT (WWJ) - Is the governor caving to pressure from the suburbs? Detroit City President Charles Pugh said that¡¯s a fact, as Rick Snyder on Friday declared a financial emergency in Detroit, setting the stage for a state takeover. Pugh said, however, while there is pressure from outside the city, he¡¯s certain there are people within Detroit who would welcome a state-appointed emergency financial manager. ¡°Because they¡¯re tired of it lingering. They want to get it over with,¡± Pugh told WWJ Newsradio 950¡äs Pat Sweeting. But what those people don¡¯t realize, Pugh said, is that an EFM won¡¯t just be in and out. ¡±It doesn¡¯t work like that. And if it doesn;t work like that in smaller cities, why in the hell would they think it would work in a city as complicated as Detroit?¡± Pugh pointed out that emergency financial managers were appointed to oversee the Detroit Public Schools, and, years later, the second EFM there is still on the job. Also among those who oppose the EFM move is U.S. Congressman Gary Peters, who said he¡¯s ¡°deeply disappointed¡± in the governor¡¯s decision. ¡°All of us agree that the city has serious financial challenges which must be addressed, however I fundamentally disagree with taking measures that disenfranchise the families I represent in Detroit,¡± Peters said, in a statement City leaders have 10 days to appeal Snyder¡¯s ruling, before a manager is put into place ¡ª but it wasn¡¯t immediately clear if Detroit Mayor Dave Bing would do so. Said Bing on Friday, ¡°The governor has made his decision, and it was his decision alone to make. While I respect it, I have said all along that I do not favor an emergency Manager for the City of Detroit. I will look at the impact of the Governor¡¯s decision as well as other options, to determine my next course of action.¡± (Read his complete statement here). Former city council member Sheila Cockrel said she realizes it¡¯s a tough pill to swallow, but she believes an emergency financial manager is a necessity for Detroit. Cockrel said a financial manager can do the job without the same constraints as local elected officials. However, she said an EFM can¡¯t do it alone. ¡°It¡¯s not a one-person fix, it¡¯s a team approach,¡± Cockrel said, speaking live on WWJ Newsradio 950. ¡°There will need to be a team of people and there needs to be, you know, really cooperation from everyone.¡± Cockrel said fiscal discipline is necessary and financial decisions must be made with transparency and accountability. As a few dozen people demonstrated outside the Coleman A. Young Municipal building Friday, inside, Snyder spoke about a the state¡¯s good working relationship with cities like Pontiac and Flint, which already have EFMs in place. WWJ spoke with Pontiac Mayor Leon Jukowski who said, while appointing a manager can be a painful decision, but a necessary one. ¡°What I¡¯ve found here in Pontiac is, while a lot of people ¡ still have misgivings about the emergency manager process, there has been progress here,¡± said Jukowski. ¡°We have more police on the streets. We¡¯ve sort of cut through an awful lot of the cities debt load. Things are looking up here, and people recognize that ¡ª even if they¡¯re not crazy about the process,¡± he said. Jukowski said, personally, he believes Detroit needs an emergency financial manager, and he blames that need on years of failed management detroit.cbslocal.com/2013/03/01/opinions-mixed-as-state-takeover-looms-in-detroit/
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Post by jeffolie on Mar 7, 2013 15:05:58 GMT -6
"beware the Ides of March"
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Post by jeffolie on Mar 8, 2013 15:04:01 GMT -6
"beware the Ides of March" 1% away from my long term stock market top prediction: S&P500 1565 made years ago for March 2013 ...beware the Ides of March 2013
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Post by jeffolie on Mar 11, 2013 16:18:10 GMT -6
jeffolie predicts…2013 Predictions January 1st Make your predictions for 2013. Here are mine: " ... jeffolie predicts…SCREWFLATION: .... Food Stamp use will make new records. ... Households On Foodstamps Rise To New Record02/11/2013 While hardly presented by the mainstream media with the same panache dedicated to the monthly ARIMA-X-12 seasonally-adjusted, climate-affected, goal-seek devised non-farm payroll data, the three month delayed Foodstamp number is according to many a far greater attestation to the "effectiveness" of the Obama administration to turn the economy around. And far greater it is: since his inauguration, the US has generated just 841,000 jobs through November 2012, a number is more than dwarfed by the 17.3 million new foodstamps and disability recipients added to the rolls in the past 4 years. And since the start of the depression in December 2007, America has seen those on foodstamps and disability increase by 21.8 million, while losing 3.6 million jobs. End result: total number of foodstamp recipients as of November: 47.7 million, an increase of 141,000 from the prior month, and reversing the brief downturn in October, while total US households on foodstamps just hit an all time record of 23,017,768, an increase of 73,952 from the prior month. The cost to the government to keep these 23 million households content and not rising up? $281.21 per month per household. Total Americans on foodstamps: www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/01/Foodstamp%20Recipients.jpgTotal households on foodstamps and average benefit per household: www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/01/Households%20SNAP%20Nov.jpgMonthly change in Foodstamp and Disability recipients vs jobs since December 2007: www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/01/Foodstamp%20Disability%20vs%20Jobs.jpgCumulative change in jobs vs Foodstamps and Disability Recipients: www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/01/Cumulative%20Foodstamp%20Disability%20vs%20Jobs.jpgSource: SNAP www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-11/chart-day-households-foodstamps-rise-new-record 20% Of Eligible Americans Foodstamp Recipients Hit Record, Alongside Record Dow Jones And Record Debt: 20% Of Eligible Americans On EBT 03/11/2013 Record Dow Jones, record US debt ($16,701,846,937,879.74), and now, once more, record number of Americans on foodstamps. According to the USDA, an all time high of 47,791,966 Americans closed 2012 in possession of the highly desired Electronic Benefits Transfer (EBT) card, managed by who else but JPMorgan. And with a civilian non-institutional population of 244.4 million in December, this means that a record 19.56% of eligible Americans are on Foodstamps. In December an additional 109,924 Americans became reliant on foodstamps for their poverty-level needs, bringing the total to 47.8 million. Number of US households on foodstamps: also a record of 23.1 million, with the average monthly benefit of $277.09. And as a percentage of the total civilian non-institutional population. Record wealth effect for the 1%, foodstamps for the poorest 20%, and a middle class on the verge of extinction. How is this possible and what happens next? Read Dylan Grice's piece posted earlier for all the answers. www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-11/foodstamp-recipients-hit-record-alongside-record-dow-jones-and-record-debt-20-eligib
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Post by jeffolie on Mar 14, 2013 5:05:11 GMT -6
"beware the Ides of March"
Friday, March 15th may well be a manipulated short term top because it is a 'witching' day ... stock expiration day ... metal expiration on the the 25th A short term top warning now exists with the stock VIX well below 12. A short term top warning now exists with the stock RSI, stochaistics, etc very high My jeffolie multi year top call prediction of 1565 is soo close ... I am now prepared to act tentatively for a topping area within my predicted "as soon a March" time prediction of seasonality
What is missing? answer: the FED policy has not changed, no game changer politic event has happened ... thus, I view this as a most likely choppy start to a topping area to suck in retail investors and allow insiders to 'distribute' and sell until some event 'rings the bell' ending the complacency
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Post by jeffolie on Mar 17, 2013 13:21:20 GMT -6
jeffolie predicts…2013 Predictions January 1st Make your predictions for 2013. Here are mine: jeffolie predicts…2010 food crisis that I made in 2008 will continue in 2013 for selective commodities such as grains with special attention to the seasonal trends for midyear tops from continuing weather issues. jeffolie predicts...stock market gains to mid year which is the traditional seasonal high hence the long standing cliche of 'sell in May and go away' after the debt limit issue resolves and after the tax filing and tax returns procedures have been finalized by the IRS tweaking the seasonality to possibly coming as early as March. jeffolie predicts…SCREWFLATION: everything the ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down in value. Taxes, fees, charges, special assessment districts from State, Local, etc governments will rise while services from them will decrease. Energy expenses for homes, cars, electricity will rise compounded by additional taxes and fees. Food prices will rise. Health care/insurance expenses will rise; College Tuition will rise; Mortgage/house payments will rise because interest rates will rise seasonally; Rents will rise. Food Stamp use will make new records. I prefer screwflation over stagflation because of the regressive impact on middle and lower class families' standard of living and that they have no investments that rise with inflation or money printing and in fact usually have their wealth tied up in declining or negative home equity while the upper 20% of earners usually have investments that will rise in 2013 outside of their home equity. jeffolie predicts… EUROPEAN CRISIS: the financial crisis will increase as the year progresses. Average European families will have their version of screwflation as govt’s increase taxes and cut support. The euro will survive and weaken during 2013. Jeffolie predicts…US GDP and inflation will decline in 2013 from 2012 using govt. numbers. jeffolie predicts…US STATES, CITIES, LOCAL AGENCIES CRISIS: major layoffs by the end of 2013, bills will not be paid, some bonds will default. jeffolie predicts…US STATES, CITIES, LOCAL AGENCIES CRISIS: major layoffs by the end of 2013, bills will not be paid, some bonds will default.2.bp.blogspot.com/-IbXv394keU8/UQvrud2HyUI/AAAAAAAAYKI/EW7XM9u7Ox8/s1600/stateLocalJan2013.jpg---------------------------------------------- " ... This graph shows total state and government payroll employment since January 2007. State and local governments lost 129,000 jobs in 2009, 262,000 in 2010, and 239,000 in 2011. In 2012, state and local government employment declined by 32,000 jobs.
In January 2013, state and local governments lost another 4,000 jobs.
It appears most of the state and local government layoffs are over, however state and local government employment is still trending down slightly.
Of course the Federal government layoffs are ongoing with another 5,000 jobs lost in January.Read more at www.calculatedriskblog.com/#jsGHq3Z01PrSPZy2.99 $1 Billion will not be paid back in just 1 Alabama county ... this prediction is true !!!!!!!!!!!!!!" ... reducing the bankrupt local government's $4.23 billion of debts by more than $1 billionprediction is true "... bills will not be paid, some bonds will default... " jeffolie predicts…US STATES, CITIES, LOCAL AGENCIES CRISIS: major layoffs by the end of 2013, bills will not be paid, some bonds will default.============================== (Reuters) - Alabama's Jefferson County will within two or three months file a workout plan that calls for , according to the reducing the bankrupt local government's $4.23 billion of debts by more than $1 billion county's top elected official. Filing a plan of adjustment, which is being readied as the county negotiates privately on terms with some creditors and battles in court with others, is a key step toward ending Jefferson County's landmark 2011 bankruptcy but it must be approved by a federal judge. news.yahoo.com/bankrupt-alabama-county-eyes-debt-cuts-topping-1-120605972--sector.html
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Post by jeffolie on May 4, 2013 11:02:52 GMT -6
jeffolie predicts…2013 Predictions January 1st Make your predictions for 2013. Here are mine: jeffolie predicts…2010 food crisis that I made in 2008 will continue in 2013 for selective commodities such as grains with special attention to the seasonal trends for midyear tops from continuing weather issues. jeffolie predicts...stock market gains to mid year which is the traditional seasonal high hence the long standing cliche of 'sell in May and go away' after the debt limit issue resolves and after the tax filing and tax returns procedures have been finalized by the IRS tweaking the seasonality to possibly coming as early as March. jeffolie predicts…SCREWFLATION: everything the ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down in value. Taxes, fees, charges, special assessment districts from State, Local, etc governments will rise while services from them will decrease. Energy expenses for homes, cars, electricity will rise compounded by additional taxes and fees. Food prices will rise. Health care/insurance expenses will rise; College Tuition will rise; Mortgage/house payments will rise because interest rates will rise seasonally; Rents will rise. Food Stamp use will make new records. I prefer screwflation over stagflation because of the regressive impact on middle and lower class families' standard of living and that they have no investments that rise with inflation or money printing and in fact usually have their wealth tied up in declining or negative home equity while the upper 20% of earners usually have investments that will rise in 2013 outside of their home equity. jeffolie predicts… EUROPEAN CRISIS: the financial crisis will increase as the year progresses. Average European families will have their version of screwflation as govt’s increase taxes and cut support. The euro will survive and weaken during 2013. Jeffolie predicts…US GDP and inflation will decline in 2013 from 2012 using govt. numbers. jeffolie predicts…US STATES, CITIES, LOCAL AGENCIES CRISIS: major layoffs by the end of 2013, bills will not be paid, some bonds will default. " ... "You're now finally getting the seasonal rally occurring for beef that's about three-weeks late getting started," ... U.S. wholesale beef prices rose to an all-time high on Friday as ... " predictions for 2013. Here are mine: jeffolie predicts…2010 food crisis that I made in 2008 will continue in 2013 for selective commodities such as grains with special attention to the seasonal trends for midyear tops from continuing weather issues. jeffolie predicts…SCREWFLATION: everything the ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down in value. Taxes, fees, charges, special assessment districts from State, Local, etc governments will rise while services from them will decrease. Energy expenses for homes, cars, electricity will rise compounded by additional taxes and fees. Food prices will rise. Health ==================================== US beef prices set new high as spring barbecue season heats up CHICAGO May 3 (Reuters) - U.S. wholesale beef prices rose to an all-time high on Friday as the delayed spring grilling season is heating up and as supermarkets buy meat for the May 27 U.S. Memorial Day holiday weekend, commonly seen as the unofficial start of the summer cookout season, analysts said. The cold soggy start to spring put outdoor cookouts on hold throughout most of April, but temperatures are seen climbing in the coming weeks, prompting grocers to stock up for a seasonal bump in sales of steaks, burgers and other cookout favorites. The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Friday reported the wholesale price for choice beef, commonly called the cutout, at $201.68 per 100 lbs (cwt), eclipsing the previous record of $201.18 set on Oct 16, 2003. "You're now finally getting the seasonal rally occurring for beef that's about three-weeks late getting started," said Chicago-based Linn Group analyst John Ginzel. "I suspect some retailers are booking product for Memorial Day features," he said. National Cattlemen's Beef Association (NCBA) weekly retail scanner data shows Memorial Day ranks third in weekly holiday beef retail sales at about $370 million, behind U.S. Labor Day sales of $380 million. The U.S. July Fourth holiday is No. 1 at around $400 million. Record-high wholesale beef prices could increase even more the lofty beef prices at grocery stores, analysts said. The average retail beef price in March hit a record $5.30 per lb, surpassing the previous record of $5.15 in November, according to the government's Economic Research Service. "The cutout's explosion to a new record puts us in pretty rarified air. That increases the chances of push back by retailers against higher prices," said Oak Investment Group president Joe Ocrant. "Conversely, the cattle numbers are at their lowest in more than 60 years and the grilling season is just getting underway, postponed by the bad spring weather," he said. A prolonged dry spell in the U.S. southwest, which followed a historic drought in the Plains, damaged pastures. The lack of moisture drove up feed costs and shrunk the herd to its smallest in 61 years.Armed with the knowledge that consumers were keeping a close watch on their purse strings, the NCBA, funded by the Beef Checkoff Program, is doing its part to ensure that beef stays on barbecue grills. "There are a variety of products and price points that will fit anyone's budget. Regardless of what beef prices do, there are still a lot of cost savings options for Americans to include it in their diet," said NCBA's Trevor Amen. Traditional grilling items, such as filets, ribeyes, tenderloins and ground beef, will remain the top cuts, he said but there will be mid-price items like flat iron and ranch cuts as well. www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/03/livestock-cattle-beef-cme-idUSL2N0DK1XP20130503
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Post by jeffolie on May 27, 2013 12:18:52 GMT -6
jeffolie predicts…2013 Predictions January 1st Make your predictions for 2013. Here are mine: jeffolie predicts…2010 food crisis that I made in 2008 will continue in 2013 for selective commodities such as grains with special attention to the seasonal trends for midyear tops from continuing weather issues. jeffolie predicts...stock market gains to mid year which is the traditional seasonal high hence the long standing cliche of 'sell in May and go away' after the debt limit issue resolves and after the tax filing and tax returns procedures have been finalized by the IRS tweaking the seasonality to possibly coming as early as March. jeffolie predicts…SCREWFLATION: everything the ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down in value. Taxes, fees, charges, special assessment districts from State, Local, etc governments will rise while services from them will decrease. Energy expenses for homes, cars, electricity will rise compounded by additional taxes and fees. Food prices will rise. Health care/insurance expenses will rise; College Tuition will rise; Mortgage/house payments will rise because interest rates will rise seasonally; Rents will rise. Food Stamp use will make new records. I prefer screwflation over stagflation because of the regressive impact on middle and lower class families' standard of living and that they have no investments that rise with inflation or money printing and in fact usually have their wealth tied up in declining or negative home equity while the upper 20% of earners usually have investments that will rise in 2013 outside of their home equity. jeffolie predicts… EUROPEAN CRISIS: the financial crisis will increase as the year progresses. Average European families will have their version of screwflation as govt’s increase taxes and cut support. The euro will survive and weaken during 2013. Jeffolie predicts…US GDP and inflation will decline in 2013 from 2012 using govt. numbers. jeffolie predicts…US STATES, CITIES, LOCAL AGENCIES CRISIS: major layoffs by the end of 2013, bills will not be paid, some bonds will default. TRUE PREDICTION".... A big question is when the public sector layoffs will end. It appears the cutbacks are mostly over at the state and local levels, but there are ongoing cutbacks at the Federal level. ... A big question is when the public sector layoffs will end. It appears the cutbacks are mostly over at the state and local levels, but there are ongoing cutbacks at the Federal level.jeffolie predicts…US STATES, CITIES, LOCAL AGENCIES CRISIS: major layoffs by the end of 2013, bills will not be paid, some bonds will default.===================================== May 27, 2013 Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama by Bill McBride on 5/27/2013 Last month I posted two graphs comparing changes in public and private sector payrolls during the Bush and Obama presidencies. Several readers asked if I could add Presidents Reagan and Clinton (I've also added the single term of President George H.W. Bush). Important: There are many differences between these periods. Overall employment was smaller in the '80s, so a better comparison might be to look at the percentage change, but this gives an overall view of employment changes. The first graph shows the change in private sector payroll jobs from when each president took office until the end of their term(s). President George H.W. Bush only served one term, and President Obama has just started his second term. Mr. G.W. Bush (red) took office following the bursting of the stock market bubble, and left during the bursting of the housing bubble. Mr Obama (blue) took office during the financial crisis and great recession. There was also a significant recession in the early '80s right after Mr. Reagan (yellow) took office. There was a recession towards the end of President G.H.W. Bush (purple) term, and Mr Clinton (light blue) served for eight years without a recession. 3.bp.blogspot.com/-0ZnuSlyNVSU/UaN5MFh0TuI/AAAAAAAAacU/7EVBR864FTQ/s1600/PrivatePresidents.jpgThe employment recovery during Mr. G.W. Bush's first term was very sluggish, and private employment was down 946,000 jobs at the end of his first term. At the end of Mr. Bush's second term, private employment was collapsing, and there were net 665,000 private sector jobs lost during Mr. Bush's two terms. Private sector employment increased slightly under President G.H.W. Bush, with 1,490,000 private sector jobs added. Private sector employment increased by 20,864,000 under President Clinton and 14,688,000 under President Reagan. There were only 1,933,000 more private sector jobs at the end of Mr. Obama's first term. A few months into Mr. Obama's second term, there are now 2,582,000 more private sector jobs than when he took office. 2.bp.blogspot.com/-79Ahp8ymTaA/UaN5Out2guI/AAAAAAAAacc/o_XR-KsJWf0/s1600/PublicPresidents.jpg A big difference between the presidencies has been public sector employment. Note the bumps in public sector employment due to the decennial Census in 1990, 2000, and 2010. The public sector grew during Mr. Reagan's terms (up 1,414,000), during Mr. G.H.W. Bush's term (up 1,127,000), during Mr. Clinton's terms (up 1,934,000), and during Mr. G.W. Bush's terms (up 1,748,000 jobs). However the public sector has declined significantly since Mr. Obama took office (down 739,000 jobs). These job losses have mostly been at the state and local level, but they are still a significant drag on overall employment. Looking forward, I expect the economy to continue to expand for the next few years, so I don't expect a sharp decline in employment as happened at the end of Mr. Bush's 2nd term (In 2005 and 2006 I was warning of a coming recession due to the bursting of the housing bubble). A big question is when the public sector layoffs will end. It appears the cutbacks are mostly over at the state and local levels, but there are ongoing cutbacks at the Federal level.www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/05/public-and-private-sector-payroll-jobs.html
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Post by jeffolie on Jun 2, 2013 17:26:57 GMT -6
jeffolie predicts…2013 Predictions January 1st Make your predictions for 2013. Here are mine: jeffolie predicts…2010 food crisis that I made in 2008 will continue in 2013 for selective commodities such as grains with special attention to the seasonal trends for midyear tops from continuing weather issues. jeffolie predicts...stock market gains to mid year which is the traditional seasonal high hence the long standing cliche of 'sell in May and go away' after the debt limit issue resolves and after the tax filing and tax returns procedures have been finalized by the IRS tweaking the seasonality to possibly coming as early as March. jeffolie predicts…SCREWFLATION: everything the ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down in value. Taxes, fees, charges, special assessment districts from State, Local, etc governments will rise while services from them will decrease. Energy expenses for homes, cars, electricity will rise compounded by additional taxes and fees. Food prices will rise. Health care/insurance expenses will rise; College Tuition will rise; Mortgage/house payments will rise because interest rates will rise seasonally; Rents will rise. Food Stamp use will make new records. I prefer screwflation over stagflation because of the regressive impact on middle and lower class families' standard of living and that they have no investments that rise with inflation or money printing and in fact usually have their wealth tied up in declining or negative home equity while the upper 20% of earners usually have investments that will rise in 2013 outside of their home equity. jeffolie predicts… EUROPEAN CRISIS: the financial crisis will increase as the year progresses. Average European families will have their version of screwflation as govt’s increase taxes and cut support. The euro will survive and weaken during 2013. Jeffolie predicts…US GDP and inflation will decline in 2013 from 2012 using govt. numbers.jeffolie predicts…US STATES, CITIES, LOCAL AGENCIES CRISIS: major layoffs by the end of 2013, bills will not be paid, some bonds will default. my Jan 1st inflation prediction is true so far as of June 1, 2013Jeffolie predicts…US GDP and inflation will decline in 2013 from 2012 using govt. numbers.===================================== June 01, 2013 Lowest Core PCE in History; "Flation" Perspective Doug Short at Advisor Perspectives has a pair of interesting reports on price inflation as measured by the PCE and PCI. Please consider PCE Price Index Update: Sorry Fed, The Disinflationary Trend Continues. The latest Headline PCE price index year-over-year (YoY) rate of 0.74% is a decrease from last month's adjusted 1.01%. The Core PCE index of 1.05% is decrease from the previous month's adjusted 1.17%. It is the lowest Core PCE ever recorded; the previous all-time low was 1.06% in March 1963, fifty years ago. The continuing disinflationary trend in core PCE (the blue line in the charts below) must be troubling to the Fed. After years of ZIRP and waves of QE, this closely watched indicator has been consistently moving in the wrong direction for over a year. It has contracted month-over-month for ten of the last 13 months since its interim high of 1.96% in March of 2012 and is now approaching half that YoY rate. The first chart shows the monthly year-over-year change in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index since 2000. I've also included an overlay of the Core PCE (less Food and Energy) price index, which is Fed's preferred indicator for gauging inflation. I've highlighted 2 to 2.5 percent range. Two percent had generally been understood to be the Fed's target for core inflation. However, the December 12 FOMC meeting raised the inflation ceiling to 2.5% for the next year or two while their accommodative measures (low FFR and quantitative easing) are in place. 4.bp.blogspot.com/-FKa-GEIqFrE/UaokLv05kWI/AAAAAAAAWAU/CoCTogcG6L8/s1600/PCE.PNGFor a long-term perspective, here are the same two metrics spanning five decades. 2.bp.blogspot.com/-nLNBcNpGjhY/UaoktPd-vBI/AAAAAAAAWAc/JxCi_THBRD4/s1600/PCE2.pngInquiring minds may also wish to consider Two Measures of Inflation: Core PCE at Its All-Time Low "Flation" Perspective Inflation, deflation, and disinflation are all in the eyes of the beholder, and all depend on the definition. Still I expect another round of deflation possibly with prices but more importantly with credit, my preferred measure of "flation". Regardless of how one measures "flation", the hyperinflationists missed the boat by a mile. globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/06/lowest-core-pce-in-history-flation.html#bfqtz9QK2WRcmMRv.99
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Post by jeffolie on Jun 9, 2013 5:40:09 GMT -6
Households On Foodstamps Rise To New Record02/11/2013 While hardly presented by the mainstream media with the same panache dedicated to the monthly ARIMA-X-12 seasonally-adjusted, climate-affected, goal-seek devised non-farm payroll data, the three month delayed Foodstamp number is according to many a far greater attestation to the "effectiveness" of the Obama administration to turn the economy around. And far greater it is: since his inauguration, the US has generated just 841,000 jobs through November 2012, a number is more than dwarfed by the 17.3 million new foodstamps and disability recipients added to the rolls in the past 4 years. And since the start of the depression in December 2007, America has seen those on foodstamps and disability increase by 21.8 million, while losing 3.6 million jobs. End result: total number of foodstamp recipients as of November: 47.7 million, an increase of 141,000 from the prior month, and reversing the brief downturn in October, while total US households on foodstamps just hit an all time record of 23,017,768, an increase of 73,952 from the prior month. The cost to the government to keep these 23 million households content and not rising up? $281.21 per month per household. Total Americans on foodstamps: www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/01/Foodstamp%20Recipients.jpgTotal households on foodstamps and average benefit per household: www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/01/Households%20SNAP%20Nov.jpgMonthly change in Foodstamp and Disability recipients vs jobs since December 2007: www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/01/Foodstamp%20Disability%20vs%20Jobs.jpgCumulative change in jobs vs Foodstamps and Disability Recipients: www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/01/Cumulative%20Foodstamp%20Disability%20vs%20Jobs.jpgSource: SNAP www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-11/chart-day-households-foodstamps-rise-new-record 20% Of Eligible Americans Foodstamp Recipients Hit Record, Alongside Record Dow Jones And Record Debt: 20% Of Eligible Americans On EBT 03/11/2013 Record Dow Jones, record US debt ($16,701,846,937,879.74), and now, once more, record number of Americans on foodstamps. According to the USDA, an all time high of 47,791,966 Americans closed 2012 in possession of the highly desired Electronic Benefits Transfer (EBT) card, managed by who else but JPMorgan. And with a civilian non-institutional population of 244.4 million in December, this means that a record 19.56% of eligible Americans are on Foodstamps. In December an additional 109,924 Americans became reliant on foodstamps for their poverty-level needs, bringing the total to 47.8 million. Number of US households on foodstamps: also a record of 23.1 million, with the average monthly benefit of $277.09. And as a percentage of the total civilian non-institutional population. Record wealth effect for the 1%, foodstamps for the poorest 20%, and a middle class on the verge of extinction. How is this possible and what happens next? Read Dylan Grice's piece posted earlier for all the answers. www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-11/foodstamp-recipients-hit-record-alongside-record-dow-jones-and-record-debt-20-eligib true prediction: " ... Food Stamp use will make new records...." jeffolie predicts…SCREWFLATION: everything the ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down in value. Taxes, fees, charges, special assessment districts from State, Local, etc governments will rise while services from them will decrease. Energy expenses for homes, cars, electricity will rise compounded by additional taxes and fees. Food prices will rise. Health care/insurance expenses will rise; College Tuition will rise; Mortgage/house payments will rise because interest rates will rise seasonally; Rents will rise. Food Stamp use will make new records. I prefer screwflation over stagflation because of the regressive impact on middle and lower class families' standard of living and that they have no investments that rise with inflation or money printing and in fact usually have their wealth tied up in declining or negative home equity while the upper 20% of earners usually have investments that will rise in 2012 outside of their home equity. Read more: www.unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/post/38613/quote/11891#ixzz2ViYyu96f========================================================================================= American Households On Foodstamps Climb To New Record06/08/2013 New Normal Yesterday, briefly, we were confused by the eruption in the stock market following a not too bad sub-200K nonfarm payrolls number. Because we know that in the New Normal bad is always good, no matter what the well-coifed TV pundit du jour tells you. Then we remembered that yesterday is when the USDA releases its monthly Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program data, i.e. Americans on Foodstamps. It was here that the ramp was perfectly explained, because while the bad (for stocks of course) data was that individual foodstamps recipients rose by 170K in March - if just a whisker below all time highs - it was the number of American households on foodstamps, which rose to a new all time high of 23,116,441 (each collecting an average of $274.30 per month) that perfectly explained the Dow Jones' 200 point surge higher: the transfer of wealth from the poor and middle-classes to the 1% continues without a hiccup. www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/06/US%20households%20on%20foodstamps%20March.jpgwww.fns.usda.gov/pd/34SNAPmonthly.htmwww.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-08/american-households-foodstamps-climb-new-record
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Post by jeffolie on Jun 14, 2013 12:40:29 GMT -6
February 20, 2013 Review team: Detroit faces financial crisis, has no plan to fix it Fiscal emergency tied to cash crunch, deficits, long-term liabilities Detroit — For the second time in a year, a state review team has found Detroit is in a financial emergency that requires Gov. Rick Snyder to intervene in City Hall. But this time, if Snyder agrees that a financial emergency exists, the governor's choices are more limited. He could appoint an emergency manager to keep Michigan's largest city from plunging into bankruptcy, experts say, or he could continue state financial supervision through a new consent agreement, which seems a faint possibility. detroit.cbslocal.com/2013/03/01/opinions-mixed-as-state-takeover-looms-in-detroit/Jan 1st prediction TRUE, CITIES CRISIS: Detroit default " ... jeffolie predicts…US STATES, CITIES, LOCAL AGENCIES CRISIS: major layoffs by the end of 2013, bills will not be paid, some bonds will default. ============================================ 6/14/2014 Detroit defaults on some debt to avoid bankruptcy filing (Reuters) - Detroit defaulted on some debt on Friday and proposed that creditors take a drastic cut in the money they are owed by the "insolvent" city in order to avoid the largest municipal bankruptcy filing in U.S. history. In a meeting with creditors, Detroit Emergency Manager Kevyn Orr announced a moratorium on principal and interest payments on the city's unsecured debt, and for the first time presented a detailed proposal calling on the holders of nearly $17 billion in Detroit debt to make substantial concessions. Under his proposal, Orr said unsecured debt holders would be paid less than 10 cents on the dollar, but some creditors would get a bit more based on city revenue. Orr said the city was "insolvent" and needed shared sacrifices from everyone, including debt holders, to have any hope of a revival. He announced the moratorium on principal and interest payments, including skipping a $34 million payment on pension certificates of participation due on Friday, to allow the city to conserve cash needed to provide services to residents. Fitch Ratings said this amounted to a default which would result in a downgrade of the credit rating on that debt. "If the payment doesn't get made, we would downgrade the rating... for default," said Arlene Bohner, a Fitch analyst. "Financial mismanagement, a shrinking population, a dwindling tax base and other factors over the past 45 years have brought Detroit to the brink of financial and operational ruin," Orr said in a statement. "We have presented a plan that outlines a comprehensive roadmap for ensuring basic services are delivered to our citizens while aligning our obligations with the reality the City confronts." Unsecured creditors, including bondholders and pension funds, will receive a pro rata share of $2 billion of notes the city would issue and pay off as its financial circumstances improve, Orr said. City workers and retirees would also face changes to their pensions and health care coverage "consistent with available funding." An oversight board would be created for Detroit, similar to one created after New York City's financial difficulties in 1979, that would ensure reforms are sustained, Orr said. Detroit is the poorest large city in the United States with more than a third of its residents living below the official government poverty line. Its population has shrunk to about 700,000 people and basic services such as police and the fire department have broken down. Orr, a bankruptcy attorney brought in by the state of Michigan to clean up the city's finances, has said there is a 50/50 chance of a bankruptcy filing. It would be a first for a major U.S. city as New York, Philadelphia and Cleveland all avoided formal bankruptcy filings, noted Jim Spiotto, a municipal bankruptcy expert at law firm Chapman and Cutler. Historically, bondholders have not lost the principal amount owed them as a result of financial restructurings of major cities. Heightened concerns that Detroit's bondholders face payment risks due to a possible bankruptcy filing or debt restructuring led to credit rating downgrades deeper into junk category for Detroit's bonds by Standard & Poor's Ratings Services on Wednesday and Moody's Investors Service on Thursday. Neither of those rating agencies were immediately available for comment on the default announcement. Much of Detroit's debt is insured, giving bondholders protection against future defaults. Two of the insurers, MBIA, Inc and Assured Guaranty, were attending the meeting on Friday, according to their spokespersons. Also attending the meeting were presidents of the unions that represent Detroit's workers, from civil service to firefighters to police officers news.yahoo.com/detroit-stop-making-debt-payments-emergency-manager-says-155748334.html
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Post by jeffolie on Jul 5, 2013 13:18:00 GMT -6
jeffolie predicts…2013 Predictions January 1st Make your predictions for 2013. Here are mine: jeffolie predicts…2010 food crisis that I made in 2008 will continue in 2013 for selective commodities such as grains with special attention to the seasonal trends for midyear tops from continuing weather issues. jeffolie predicts...stock market gains to mid year which is the traditional seasonal high hence the long standing cliche of 'sell in May and go away' after the debt limit issue resolves and after the tax filing and tax returns procedures have been finalized by the IRS tweaking the seasonality to possibly coming as early as March. jeffolie predicts…SCREWFLATION: everything the ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down in value. Taxes, fees, charges, special assessment districts from State, Local, etc governments will rise while services from them will decrease. Energy expenses for homes, cars, electricity will rise compounded by additional taxes and fees. Food prices will rise. Health care/insurance expenses will rise; College Tuition will rise; Mortgage/house payments will rise because interest rates will rise seasonally; Rents will rise. Food Stamp use will make new records. I prefer screwflation over stagflation because of the regressive impact on middle and lower class families' standard of living and that they have no investments that rise with inflation or money printing and in fact usually have their wealth tied up in declining or negative home equity while the upper 20% of earners usually have investments that will rise in 2013 outside of their home equity. jeffolie predicts… EUROPEAN CRISIS: the financial crisis will increase as the year progresses. Average European families will have their version of screwflation as govt’s increase taxes and cut support. The euro will survive and weaken during 2013. Jeffolie predicts…US GDP and inflation will decline in 2013 from 2012 using govt. numbers. jeffolie predicts…US STATES, CITIES, LOCAL AGENCIES CRISIS: major layoffs by the end of 2013, bills will not be paid, some bonds will default. TRUE PREDICTION".... A big question is when the public sector layoffs will end. It appears the cutbacks are mostly over at the state and local levels, but there are ongoing cutbacks at the Federal level. ... A big question is when the public sector layoffs will end. It appears the cutbacks are mostly over at the state and local levels, but there are ongoing cutbacks at the Federal level.jeffolie predicts…US STATES, CITIES, LOCAL AGENCIES CRISIS: major layoffs by the end of 2013, bills will not be paid, some bonds will default.===================================== May 27, 2013 Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama by Bill McBride on 5/27/2013 Last month I posted two graphs comparing changes in public and private sector payrolls during the Bush and Obama presidencies. Several readers asked if I could add Presidents Reagan and Clinton (I've also added the single term of President George H.W. Bush). Important: There are many differences between these periods. Overall employment was smaller in the '80s, so a better comparison might be to look at the percentage change, but this gives an overall view of employment changes. The first graph shows the change in private sector payroll jobs from when each president took office until the end of their term(s). President George H.W. Bush only served one term, and President Obama has just started his second term. Mr. G.W. Bush (red) took office following the bursting of the stock market bubble, and left during the bursting of the housing bubble. Mr Obama (blue) took office during the financial crisis and great recession. There was also a significant recession in the early '80s right after Mr. Reagan (yellow) took office. There was a recession towards the end of President G.H.W. Bush (purple) term, and Mr Clinton (light blue) served for eight years without a recession. 3.bp.blogspot.com/-0ZnuSlyNVSU/UaN5MFh0TuI/AAAAAAAAacU/7EVBR864FTQ/s1600/PrivatePresidents.jpgThe employment recovery during Mr. G.W. Bush's first term was very sluggish, and private employment was down 946,000 jobs at the end of his first term. At the end of Mr. Bush's second term, private employment was collapsing, and there were net 665,000 private sector jobs lost during Mr. Bush's two terms. Private sector employment increased slightly under President G.H.W. Bush, with 1,490,000 private sector jobs added. Private sector employment increased by 20,864,000 under President Clinton and 14,688,000 under President Reagan. There were only 1,933,000 more private sector jobs at the end of Mr. Obama's first term. A few months into Mr. Obama's second term, there are now 2,582,000 more private sector jobs than when he took office. 2.bp.blogspot.com/-79Ahp8ymTaA/UaN5Out2guI/AAAAAAAAacc/o_XR-KsJWf0/s1600/PublicPresidents.jpg A big difference between the presidencies has been public sector employment. Note the bumps in public sector employment due to the decennial Census in 1990, 2000, and 2010. The public sector grew during Mr. Reagan's terms (up 1,414,000), during Mr. G.H.W. Bush's term (up 1,127,000), during Mr. Clinton's terms (up 1,934,000), and during Mr. G.W. Bush's terms (up 1,748,000 jobs). However the public sector has declined significantly since Mr. Obama took office (down 739,000 jobs). These job losses have mostly been at the state and local level, but they are still a significant drag on overall employment. Looking forward, I expect the economy to continue to expand for the next few years, so I don't expect a sharp decline in employment as happened at the end of Mr. Bush's 2nd term (In 2005 and 2006 I was warning of a coming recession due to the bursting of the housing bubble). A big question is when the public sector layoffs will end. It appears the cutbacks are mostly over at the state and local levels, but there are ongoing cutbacks at the Federal level.www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/05/public-and-private-sector-payroll-jobs.html" ... Public sector continued to shed jobs in June ... The overall public sector lost 7,000 jobs last month, continuing a years-long decline," TRUE PREDICTIONjeffolie predicts…US STATES, CITIES, LOCAL AGENCIES CRISIS: major layoffs by the end of 2013, bills will not be paid, some bonds will default.=============================================================== Public sector continued to shed jobs in June
Nearly half of Americans are one emergency from financial ruin Women still work more low-pay jobs, report on gender wage gap finds Nearly half of college grads have jobs that don't require diplomas Which college majors pay? Engineering now trumps business July 5, 2013 The private sector continued to show solid job gains in June, while the public sector kept shedding workers. The overall public sector lost 7,000 jobs last month, continuing a years-long decline, according to the Labor Department. In comparison, U.S. employers overall added 195,000 new jobs last month. The unemployment rate held steady at 7.6%. Much of those cuts can be attributed to sequestration, or the $85 billion in across-the-board cuts that the government must implement by the end of its fiscal year in September. But fortunately, economists' more dire predictions about the effects of budget cuts have not come to pass. The government has been cutting a large number of jobs since 2009, during the last months of the Great Recession. In the last year, the private sector has gained jobs at a 2% rate. But government employment has fallen by 0.2%. That means, over the last 12 months, the private sector added more than 190,000 jobs per month while the government shed 3,000 jobs a month. www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-us-jobs-unemployment-20130703,0,6435327.story
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Post by jeffolie on Aug 11, 2013 11:26:29 GMT -6
2 million Mint users volunteered for their data to be used to see what costs were increasing/decreasing. And here ya go. sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-frc1/1005355_10151504733662581_537998789_n.jpgMint data confirms my prediction unfortunately I expect worse in the coming years. The middle class lost ownership of houses and the current mini bubble enriches the new investor class and flippers ... while most do not marry, most do not buy houses plus mega large corporations converted distressed houses into rentals benefitting from the shift into renting conveniently closer to where they work when now planning to raise children [see my thread on low birthrates and a 'regular depression' with a new post today] and not married. jeffolie predicts…SCREWFLATION: everything the ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down in value. Taxes, fees, charges, special assessment districts from State, Local, etc governments will rise while services from them will decrease. Energy expenses for homes, cars, electricity will rise compounded by additional taxes and fees. Food prices will rise. Health care/insurance expenses will rise; College Tuition will rise; Mortgage/house payments will rise because interest rates will rise seasonally; Rents will rise. Food Stamp use will make new records. I prefer screwflation over stagflation because of the regressive impact on middle and lower class families' standard of living and that they have no investments that rise with inflation or money printing and in fact usually have their wealth tied up in declining or negative home equity while the upper 20% of earners usually have investments that will rise in 2013 outside of their home equity. ===================================================== jeffolie predicts…2013 Predictions January 1st Make your predictions for 2013. Here are mine: jeffolie predicts…2010 food crisis that I made in 2008 will continue in 2013 for selective commodities such as grains with special attention to the seasonal trends for midyear tops from continuing weather issues. jeffolie predicts...stock market gains to mid year which is the traditional seasonal high hence the long standing cliche of 'sell in May and go away' after the debt limit issue resolves and after the tax filing and tax returns procedures have been finalized by the IRS tweaking the seasonality to possibly coming as early as March. jeffolie predicts…SCREWFLATION: everything the ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down in value. Taxes, fees, charges, special assessment districts from State, Local, etc governments will rise while services from them will decrease. Energy expenses for homes, cars, electricity will rise compounded by additional taxes and fees. Food prices will rise. Health care/insurance expenses will rise; College Tuition will rise; Mortgage/house payments will rise because interest rates will rise seasonally; Rents will rise. Food Stamp use will make new records. I prefer screwflation over stagflation because of the regressive impact on middle and lower class families' standard of living and that they have no investments that rise with inflation or money printing and in fact usually have their wealth tied up in declining or negative home equity while the upper 20% of earners usually have investments that will rise in 2013 outside of their home equity. jeffolie predicts… EUROPEAN CRISIS: the financial crisis will increase as the year progresses. Average European families will have their version of screwflation as govt’s increase taxes and cut support. The euro will survive and weaken during 2013. Jeffolie predicts…US GDP and inflation will decline in 2013 from 2012 using govt. numbers. jeffolie predicts…US STATES, CITIES, LOCAL AGENCIES CRISIS: major layoffs by the end of 2013, bills will not be paid, some bonds will default.
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Post by jeffolie on Sept 7, 2013 15:21:41 GMT -6
jeffolie predicts…2013 Predictions January 1st Make your predictions for 2013. Here are mine: .... jeffolie predicts…US STATES, CITIES, LOCAL AGENCIES CRISIS: major layoffs by the end of 2013, bills will not be paid, some bonds will default. This prediction is true " jeffolie predicts…US STATES, CITIES, LOCAL AGENCIES CRISIS: major layoffs by the end of 2013, bills will not be paid, some bonds will default...." " ... A big question is when the public sector layoffs will end. It appears the cutbacks are mostly over at the state and local levels, but there are ongoing cutbacks at the Federal level. ============================================================== September 07, 2013 Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama by Bill McBride on 9/07/2013 Note: This is an update on an earlier post through the August employment report. In April, I posted two graphs comparing changes in public and private sector payrolls during the Bush and Obama presidencies. Several readers asked if I could add Presidents Reagan and Clinton (I've also added the single term of President George H.W. Bush). Below are updates through the August report. Important: There are many differences between these periods. Overall employment was smaller in the '80s, so a better comparison might be to look at the percentage change, but this gives an overall view of employment changes. 1.bp.blogspot.com/-M-yjckmDTvE/UiuHOMYdlpI/AAAAAAAAb4w/yPYy9bO7BwA/s1600/PrivatePresidentsAug2013.jpg The first graph shows the change in private sector payroll jobs from when each president took office until the end of their term(s). President George H.W. Bush only served one term, and President Obama is in the first year of his second term. Mr. G.W. Bush (red) took office following the bursting of the stock market bubble, and left during the bursting of the housing bubble. Mr. Obama (blue) took office during the financial crisis and great recession. There was also a significant recession in the early '80s right after Mr. Reagan (yellow) took office. There was a recession towards the end of President G.H.W. Bush (purple) term, and Mr Clinton (light blue) served for eight years without a recession. Private Sector Payrolls 3.bp.blogspot.com/-R0ne8Pyakig/UiuHRByhW0I/AAAAAAAAb44/UgTa-eiiuNM/s1600/PublicPresidentsAug2013.jpg The first graph is for private employment only. The employment recovery during Mr. G.W. Bush's (red) first term was very sluggish, and private employment was down 946,000 jobs at the end of his first term. At the end of Mr. Bush's second term, private employment was collapsing, and there were net 665,000 private sector jobs lost during Mr. Bush's two terms. Private sector employment increased slightly under President G.H.W. Bush (purple), with 1,490,000 private sector jobs added. Private sector employment increased by 20,864,000 under President Clinton (light blue) and 14,688,000 under President Reagan (yellow). There were only 1,933,000 more private sector jobs at the end of Mr. Obama's first term. At this early point in Mr. Obama's second term, there are now 3,254,000 more private sector jobs than when he initially took office. Public Sector Payrolls A big difference between the presidencies has been public sector employment. Note the bumps in public sector employment due to the decennial Census in 1990, 2000, and 2010. The public sector grew during Mr. Reagan's terms (up 1,414,000), during Mr. G.H.W. Bush's term (up 1,127,000), during Mr. Clinton's terms (up 1,934,000), and during Mr. G.W. Bush's terms (up 1,748,000 jobs). However the public sector has declined significantly since Mr. Obama took office (down 752,000 jobs). These job losses have mostly been at the state and local level, but more recently at the Federal level. This has been a significant drag on overall employment. Looking forward, I expect the economy to continue to expand for the next few years, so I don't expect a sharp decline in employment as happened at the end of Mr. Bush's 2nd term (In 2005 and 2006 I was warning of a coming recession due to the bursting of the housing bubble). A big question is when the public sector layoffs will end. It appears the cutbacks are mostly over at the state and local levels, but there are ongoing cutbacks at the Federal level. www.calculatedriskblog.com/
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Post by jeffolie on Sept 8, 2013 12:41:36 GMT -6
20% Of Eligible Americans Foodstamp Recipients Hit Record, Alongside Record Dow Jones And Record Debt: 20% Of Eligible Americans On EBT 03/11/2013 Record Dow Jones, record US debt ($16,701,846,937,879.74), and now, once more, record number of Americans on foodstamps. According to the USDA, an all time high of 47,791,966 Americans closed 2012 in possession of the highly desired Electronic Benefits Transfer (EBT) card, managed by who else but JPMorgan. And with a civilian non-institutional population of 244.4 million in December, this means that a record 19.56% of eligible Americans are on Foodstamps. In December an additional 109,924 Americans became reliant on foodstamps for their poverty-level needs, bringing the total to 47.8 million. Number of US households on foodstamps: also a record of 23.1 million, with the average monthly benefit of $277.09. And as a percentage of the total civilian non-institutional population. Record wealth effect for the 1%, foodstamps for the poorest 20%, and a middle class on the verge of extinction. How is this possible and what happens next? Read Dylan Grice's piece posted earlier for all the answers. www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-11/foodstamp-recipients-hit-record-alongside-record-dow-jones-and-record-debt-20-eligib true prediction: " ... Food Stamp use will make new records...." jeffolie predicts…SCREWFLATION: everything the ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down in value. Taxes, fees, charges, special assessment districts from State, Local, etc governments will rise while services from them will decrease. Energy expenses for homes, cars, electricity will rise compounded by additional taxes and fees. Food prices will rise. Health care/insurance expenses will rise; College Tuition will rise; Mortgage/house payments will rise because interest rates will rise seasonally; Rents will rise. Food Stamp use will make new records. I prefer screwflation over stagflation because of the regressive impact on middle and lower class families' standard of living and that they have no investments that rise with inflation or money printing and in fact usually have their wealth tied up in declining or negative home equity while the upper 20% of earners usually have investments that will rise in 2012 outside of their home equity. Read more: www.unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/post/38613/quote/11891#ixzz2ViYyu96f========================================================================================= American Households On Foodstamps Climb To New Record06/08/2013 New Normal Yesterday, briefly, we were confused by the eruption in the stock market following a not too bad sub-200K nonfarm payrolls number. Because we know that in the New Normal bad is always good, no matter what the well-coifed TV pundit du jour tells you. Then we remembered that yesterday is when the USDA releases its monthly Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program data, i.e. Americans on Foodstamps. It was here that the ramp was perfectly explained, because while the bad (for stocks of course) data was that individual foodstamps recipients rose by 170K in March - if just a whisker below all time highs - it was the number of American households on foodstamps, which rose to a new all time high of 23,116,441 (each collecting an average of $274.30 per month) that perfectly explained the Dow Jones' 200 point surge higher: the transfer of wealth from the poor and middle-classes to the 1% continues without a hiccup. www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/06/US%20households%20on%20foodstamps%20March.jpgwww.fns.usda.gov/pd/34SNAPmonthly.htmwww.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-08/american-households-foodstamps-climb-new-recordHouseholds On Foodstamps Rise To New Record High: More Americans Live In Poverty Than The Population Of Spain 09/08/2013 There was much discussion of Friday's "disappointing" non-farm payrolls goal-seeked, seasonally adjusted, X-13-ARIMA conceived jobs "number." The conclusion was that it showed an economy which one year after the start of QEternity was growing nowhere near where the Fed has projected and hoped it would be at this time. But in addition to the BLS jobs number, there was another just as important number that was released on Friday: the monthly foodstamp (SNAP) participation update. There was no discussion of this particular number and for good reason. If the NFP number was at least meant to show some economic stability, if subpar, the monthly foodstamp update shows month after month that the greatest depression is nowhere near ending for millions of American living in poverty (83% of SNAP households have gross income at or below 100% of the poverty guideline ($19,530 for a family of 3 in 2013), and these households receive about 91% of all benefits. 61% of SNAP households have gross income at or below 75% of the poverty guideline or $14,648 for a family of 3 in 2013). To wit: in June, the number of households receiving foodstamps rose to 23.117 million, an increase of 45.9k in one month, and also a new record high. As for the average monthly benefit per household: $274.55, just off record lows. www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/08-2/Household%20SNAP.jpgAt the individual level, in June an additional 125,059 Americans started using Foodstamps, i.e. entered poverty. However, the silver lining was that unlike at the household level, the increase to 47.8 million was not a record high. It missed that particular record, set in December 2012, by 31,771. www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/08-2/Foodstamp%20Americans%20Jan.jpgAnd while it is understandable why the media has been obsessed with Syria: after all the administration is in dire need of distractions from so many things having gone wrong, it is also understandable why no mainstream media outlet will show the following chart: the change of Americans on foodstamps and disability vs jobs since the start of the Depression in December 2007. The reason is that while over that time period the US still needs to generate an additional 2.2 million jobs to get back to breakeven (ignoring for a minute that the jobs created are mostly part-time or low paying jobs), the number of foodstamp and disability recipients has risen by 22 million! SNAP and Disability vs Payrolls monthly: www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/08-2/SNAP%20vs%20NFP.jpgAnd SNAP and Disability vs Payrolls cumulative: www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/08-2/Cumulative%20SNAP%20vs%20NFP_1.jpgFinally, putting it all into perspective, there are more Americans on foodstamps than the entire population of Spain. www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/08-2/Foodstamps%20vs%20Spain.jpgSource: USDA www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-08/households-foodstamps-rise-new-record-high-more-americans-live-poverty-population-sp
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Post by jeffolie on Nov 12, 2013 5:22:43 GMT -6
jeffolie predicts…2013 Predictions January 1st Make your predictions for 2013. Here are mine: jeffolie predicts…2010 food crisis that I made in 2008 will continue in 2013 for selective commodities such as grains with special attention to the seasonal trends for midyear tops from continuing weather issues. jeffolie predicts...stock market gains to mid year which is the traditional seasonal high hence the long standing cliche of 'sell in May and go away' after the debt limit issue resolves and after the tax filing and tax returns procedures have been finalized by the IRS tweaking the seasonality to possibly coming as early as March. jeffolie predicts…SCREWFLATION: everything the ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down in value. Taxes, fees, charges, special assessment districts from State, Local, etc governments will rise while services from them will decrease. Energy expenses for homes, cars, electricity will rise compounded by additional taxes and fees. Food prices will rise. Health care/insurance expenses will rise; College Tuition will rise; Mortgage/house payments will rise because interest rates will rise seasonally; Rents will rise. Food Stamp use will make new records. I prefer screwflation over stagflation because of the regressive impact on middle and lower class families' standard of living and that they have no investments that rise with inflation or money printing and in fact usually have their wealth tied up in declining or negative home equity while the upper 20% of earners usually have investments that will rise in 2013 outside of their home equity. jeffolie predicts… EUROPEAN CRISIS: the financial crisis will increase as the year progresses. Average European families will have their version of screwflation as govt’s increase taxes and cut support. The euro will survive and weaken during 2013. Jeffolie predicts…US GDP and inflation will decline in 2013 from 2012 using govt. numbers. jeffolie predicts…US STATES, CITIES, LOCAL AGENCIES CRISIS: major layoffs by the end of 2013, bills will not be paid, some bonds will default.the above prediction coming true: Moody's Warns of Scranton Bankruptcy; Fitch Downgrades Chicago ================================================= November 12, 2013 Moody's Warns of Scranton Bankruptcy; Fitch Downgrades Chicago Citing Pension Problems; Liberal Fantasyland It is truly pathetic watching politicians flop like fish out of water trying to prevent something that was clearly inevitable long ago. Please consider Moody’s warns of bankruptcy in Scranton as city faces $20 million budget gap. Moody’s warned investors that Scranton could be facing the threat of default or bankruptcy thanks to a $20 million budget gap for the fiscal year that begins Jan. 1. Scranton has more than $195 million in outstanding debt, according to Moody’s. A similar crisis hit the city in July 2012, which lead to Mayor Chris Doherty cutting all city workers’ pay to minimum wage for several weeks, a move that made national headlines. “A second liquidity crisis could have more severe effects, including additional defaults,” Moody’s warned. To generate revenue necessary to address its debt, Scranton has considered taxing commuters and alcoholic drinks, though neither has been approved by the city council. The Pennsylvania Economy League, which is overseeing Scranton’s Act 47 recovery plan, warned last month the city would have to raise taxes to avoid a default at the beginning of the 2014 fiscal year. Scranton also faces more than $100 million in unfunded pension debt, on top of the $195 million in other debt owed. Adding to Scranton’s financial woes is the need to borrow another $28 million to pay a court-mandated settlement with the city’s police and firefighter unions. Tax Hike is Pure Idiocy The numbers say everything that needs to be said. It is absolutely impossible for Scranton to did out of this hole, I do not care how much taxes are raised. All tax hikes can do is harm more working class citizens for the benefit of undeserving public union workers. Liberal Fantasyland Whatever judge awarded the police and fire workers $28 million is an idiot or a genius, depending on his or her intent. If the intent of the ruling was to make it clear to everyone on the planet that the only solution for Scranton was bankruptcy, then the judge succeeded. If as I suspect, the judge actually thought police and fire fighters would receive $28 million, then the judge is living in liberal fantasyland. Fitch Downgrades Chicago Citing Pension Problems Yahoo!Finance reports Fitch downgrades Chicago bond ratings Fitch dropped the rating from AA- to A- on $8 billion in general obligation bonds, backed by property taxes. It also dropped the rating on $497 million in sales tax bonds — paid for by both the city's local sales tax and its share of the state sales tax. And the rating was downgraded on $200 million in commercial paper notes, financed by a general obligation pledge from any available city fund. Friday's downgrade stems from "the lack of meaningful solutions" to the city's pension situation. City and fire pension programs have no more than 30 percent of the money needed to cover obligations. Scranton is several steps deeper in the hole than Chicago, but the problems are quite similar. Neither city can possibly pay pension promises. Mike "Mish" Shedlock globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
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