www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdfAccording to the official CPI report, total CPI fell -0.4%.
Reviewing the details of the report, however, indicates the decline came almost exclusively from a fall in energy prices.
But where I live, there has been a 0.0% decline in Gasoline prices over the last 12 months.
Everything else has gone up.
Food prices have increased +1.5% over the last 12 months.
Shelter prices increased +2.2% over the last 12 months.
Overall Transportation Services increased +2.5%.
Jobs ... RI real estate investment ... construction, remodelling, rehab
The failure of the lumber market, the jump in jobless claims signal that JOBS ARE GONE.
Why?
This source has been Type 1 investors creating rental income.
The profits are gone. The
competition from higher 10 year Treasury rates hurts as well. The higher rates hurt borrowing for this play as well.
The FED can not relent, stop buying bonds to suppress rates. POMOs are heavily scheduled almost every day remaining in May.
If this source for TRICKLE DOWN JOBS is gone, then only the type 1 consumer buying of new cars, etc remains ... this may be too little ... the
FED may be PUSHING ON A STRINGSeasonality applies to coincide with this
increasing the chance of a Summer Swoon in the economy
depressing materials, metals, rates, jobsNO DEFLATION NOWAccording to the govt,
slow and small inflation persists.
The status quo, gridlock continues to impact America creating increased money supply for spending among the rich while declining money for consuming among the lower 80%. This slightly depresses demand for goods and services.
As the Seasonality happens from the coming Summer Swoon, metals and materials will continue to decline.
FED DOMINATION under sequestrationThe federal govt slightly cutback spending for the remainder of 2013 and a little more in 2014 causing a slight deflationary impact.
The FED QE infinity continues the Trickle Down economy as the Type1 rich buy new cars and rehab houses to create rental income.
FUTURE FED POLICY CHANGEmy continuing predictions for a 'political event' that will unsettle, disturb the status quo remain. Seasonality applies to feature a Summer Swoon causing declines in metals, materials, oil, rates, etc ... followed by Seasonality increasing into the start of 2014
The FED will respond to the upcoming unknown 'political event' with a FED Policy change.
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1.bp.blogspot.com/-XyDwnkCqWHs/UZT0lNLhJuI/AAAAAAAAaUk/yVWnEPS1jFU/s1600/InflationApril2013.jpgMay 16, 2013
Key Measures show low and falling inflation in April
by Bill McBride on 5/16/2013
The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (1.8% annualized rate) in April. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.1% (1.0% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) monthly CPI report.
Earlier today, the BLS reported that the
seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers fell 0.4% (-4.3% annualized rate) in April. The
CPI less food and energy increased 0.1% (0.6% annualized rate) on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Note: The Cleveland Fed has the median CPI details for April here. Motor fuel declined at a 64% annualized rate in April.
This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.1%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 1.6%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 1.7%. Core PCE is for March and increased 1.1% year-over-year.
On a monthly basis, median CPI was at 1.8% annualized, trimmed-mean CPI was at 1.0% annualized, and core CPI increased 0.6% annualized. Also core PCE for March increased 0.4% annualized.
With this low level of inflation - and falling - and the current high level of unemployment, I expect the Fed will continue the large scale asset purchases (QE) at the current level.
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/05/key-measures-show-low-and-falling.html