U.S. Reached Peak Car, 2 dental implants, 1/3 cars
Jul 1, 2013 17:04:57 GMT -6
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Post by jeffolie on Jul 1, 2013 17:04:57 GMT -6
U.S. Reached Peak Car, 2 dental implants, 1/3 cars
My threads on cars, the Type 1 rich consumer, aging plus our family's changes seem to all relate in US Reached Peak Car?
My thread about how my sweet wife, Olie and I now own only a new car after reduced from 3 cars ... means we must closely coordinate our needs including the need for dental work next week when I will have 2 molar implants. As our family shifted, our now adult children have cars and sweet Olie and I have less driving. The below chart reflects our shift in age and family.
As student loans nationwide impacted car buying away from young adults leaving only the Type 1 rich to buy a new car, used car prices relatively strenghtened plus subprime auto financing.
my jeffolie view: the new car market now more closely mirrors the wealth effect of the now peaking housing market and stock markets ... watch the threads on A US PEAK CAR market increase.
=============================================
July 1, 2013
Has the U.S. Reached Peak Car?
Yves here. This post is a workmanlike compilation of trends in the driving habits of Americans. Some of the data shows that use of public transportation has been rising faster than population growth…yet budget stresses mean those services are regularly targeted for fare increases and schedule cutbacks.
Having never owned a car, and hoping to remain in that category, I wish I saw a more concerted push towards
rethinking zoning and development to encourage more density and thus more walking (which gives you a twofer: more active citizens and less gas usage). Perhaps readers will point out some examples, but it seems that this sort of change has been relegated to the category of “environmentalist dreaming” rather than a goal to be taken seriously.
By Matt Smith, an analyst who blogs at Energy Burrito. Cross posted from OilPrice
There have been a number of recent research reports addressing the notion of ‘Peak Car’ – whether driving has peaked per person in the US. So here are a bunch of interesting tidbits and nuggets I have gleaned from the reports ‘A New Direction‘ and ‘Has Motorization in the US Peaked?’, as well as an update on miles driven….it’s all downhill from here.
Pedal to the Metal
–From the end of World War II to 2004 (known as ‘the Driving Boom’), Americans drove more miles nearly every year
–The driving boom coincided with the Baby Boom – a bubble of those born between 1946 and 1964
–By 2004, the average American was driving 85% more miles than in 1970
–Between 1980 and 2010, freeway capacity (measured in lane-miles) expanded by 35%
Hitting The Brakes
–The peak driving age group is that of 35-54 year-olds
–The total number of 35-54 year-olds is set to tail off by the end of this decade
–Meanwhile, the share of the population of those 65 and older is set to increase dramatically by 2040
www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/AE2251.png
–In 1980, the age group of 65 and older made up 11% of the population. By 2040 this share is expected to reach 21%
–By 1992, 90% of the driving age population could drive, but by 2011 this had fallen to 86% – the lowest level in 30 years
–In 2011, 67% of 16-34 year-olds had a license, the lowest level since at last 1963
–Inflation-adjusted gasoline prices have doubled in the last decade
–Young people aged 16 -34 drove 23% fewer miles in 2009 than in 2001
–From 2001 – 2009, the number of passenger miles travelled by those aged 16-34 on public transport increased 40%
–Americans took nearly 10% more trips via public transportation in 2011 than in 2005
Driving It Home
–The absolute number of cars peaked in 2008, at 236.4 million
–This translates to nearly 2 vehicles per household, over 1 car per licensed driver, and 0.75 vehicles per person
www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/AE2252.png
Although ‘The Great Recession‘ is likely to blame for the drop-off in vehicles since 2008, a growing population (increasing 11% from 2011 to 2025) means we will likely see a higher number of vehicles on the road in the future.
Conclusion
Although we may not have peaked in terms of total vehicles in the US, we have likely peaked in terms of ‘Peak Car’ – aka miles driven per person.
www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/AE2253.png
Whether this slow-down is due to telecommuting, changing demographics, higher fuel costs, online shopping, or increased use of public transport, the evidence points to a turning tide in terms of miles driven:
Thanks for playing, and keep on trucking…or don’t, as the case may be…
Topics: Economic fundamentals, Energy markets, Environment, Guest Post
Email This Post Posted by Yves Smith
Read more at www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/07/has-the-u-s-reached-peak-car.html#rZuizJHCYiq7e774.99
My threads on cars, the Type 1 rich consumer, aging plus our family's changes seem to all relate in US Reached Peak Car?
My thread about how my sweet wife, Olie and I now own only a new car after reduced from 3 cars ... means we must closely coordinate our needs including the need for dental work next week when I will have 2 molar implants. As our family shifted, our now adult children have cars and sweet Olie and I have less driving. The below chart reflects our shift in age and family.
As student loans nationwide impacted car buying away from young adults leaving only the Type 1 rich to buy a new car, used car prices relatively strenghtened plus subprime auto financing.
my jeffolie view: the new car market now more closely mirrors the wealth effect of the now peaking housing market and stock markets ... watch the threads on A US PEAK CAR market increase.
=============================================
July 1, 2013
Has the U.S. Reached Peak Car?
Yves here. This post is a workmanlike compilation of trends in the driving habits of Americans. Some of the data shows that use of public transportation has been rising faster than population growth…yet budget stresses mean those services are regularly targeted for fare increases and schedule cutbacks.
Having never owned a car, and hoping to remain in that category, I wish I saw a more concerted push towards
rethinking zoning and development to encourage more density and thus more walking (which gives you a twofer: more active citizens and less gas usage). Perhaps readers will point out some examples, but it seems that this sort of change has been relegated to the category of “environmentalist dreaming” rather than a goal to be taken seriously.
By Matt Smith, an analyst who blogs at Energy Burrito. Cross posted from OilPrice
There have been a number of recent research reports addressing the notion of ‘Peak Car’ – whether driving has peaked per person in the US. So here are a bunch of interesting tidbits and nuggets I have gleaned from the reports ‘A New Direction‘ and ‘Has Motorization in the US Peaked?’, as well as an update on miles driven….it’s all downhill from here.
Pedal to the Metal
–From the end of World War II to 2004 (known as ‘the Driving Boom’), Americans drove more miles nearly every year
–The driving boom coincided with the Baby Boom – a bubble of those born between 1946 and 1964
–By 2004, the average American was driving 85% more miles than in 1970
–Between 1980 and 2010, freeway capacity (measured in lane-miles) expanded by 35%
Hitting The Brakes
–The peak driving age group is that of 35-54 year-olds
–The total number of 35-54 year-olds is set to tail off by the end of this decade
–Meanwhile, the share of the population of those 65 and older is set to increase dramatically by 2040
www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/AE2251.png
–In 1980, the age group of 65 and older made up 11% of the population. By 2040 this share is expected to reach 21%
–By 1992, 90% of the driving age population could drive, but by 2011 this had fallen to 86% – the lowest level in 30 years
–In 2011, 67% of 16-34 year-olds had a license, the lowest level since at last 1963
–Inflation-adjusted gasoline prices have doubled in the last decade
–Young people aged 16 -34 drove 23% fewer miles in 2009 than in 2001
–From 2001 – 2009, the number of passenger miles travelled by those aged 16-34 on public transport increased 40%
–Americans took nearly 10% more trips via public transportation in 2011 than in 2005
Driving It Home
–The absolute number of cars peaked in 2008, at 236.4 million
–This translates to nearly 2 vehicles per household, over 1 car per licensed driver, and 0.75 vehicles per person
www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/AE2252.png
Although ‘The Great Recession‘ is likely to blame for the drop-off in vehicles since 2008, a growing population (increasing 11% from 2011 to 2025) means we will likely see a higher number of vehicles on the road in the future.
Conclusion
Although we may not have peaked in terms of total vehicles in the US, we have likely peaked in terms of ‘Peak Car’ – aka miles driven per person.
www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/AE2253.png
Whether this slow-down is due to telecommuting, changing demographics, higher fuel costs, online shopping, or increased use of public transport, the evidence points to a turning tide in terms of miles driven:
Thanks for playing, and keep on trucking…or don’t, as the case may be…
Topics: Economic fundamentals, Energy markets, Environment, Guest Post
Email This Post Posted by Yves Smith
Read more at www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/07/has-the-u-s-reached-peak-car.html#rZuizJHCYiq7e774.99