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Post by jeffolie on Jul 15, 2013 15:19:23 GMT -6
" ... it’s going to come sometime within the next two years. It could come as soon as the next couple of months, but it is going to happen, Jul 14, 2013 20 minutes video usawatchdog.com/an-economic-co... Karl Denninger of Market-Ticker.org predicts, "We are setting up for a collapse that is going to be worse than 1929, and it's going to come sometime within the next two years. It could come as soon as the next couple of months, but it is going to happen, and there's nothing that is going to stop it." Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with trader and writer Karl Denninger. --------------------------------------- An Economic Collapse that is Going to be Worse than 1929: Karl Denninger 15 July 2013 By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com Employers are cutting full-time employees back to part-time to avoid the requirement of providing health insurance under Obama Care. Trader Karl Denninger says, “As the Obama Administration runs against the economic reality of what they passed, they are now trying to find ways to dodge it. . . . The Obama Administration’s reaction to this has been to unilaterally, and by the way illegally, put off the imposition of mandate.” This is not going to save the teetering economy as Denninger contends, “Bernanke has lost control of the bond market and, in general, his policy. . . . The reality is the Fed is not in charge, and when that confidence level breaks, you are going to see all hell break loose.” Denninger goes on to predict, “We are setting up for a collapse that is going to be worse than 1929, and it’s going to come sometime within the next two years. It could come as soon as the next couple of months, but it is going to happen, and there’s nothing that is going to stop it.” Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Karl Denninger of Market-Ticker.org. usawatchdog.com/an-economic-collapse-that-is-going-to-be-worse-than-1929-karl-denninger/
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Post by jeffolie on Jul 15, 2013 15:37:51 GMT -6
at some point soon [months] the existing method of enriching the rich, Type 1 consumer will fail: when stocks decline, house prices decline This topping phase has started with higher interest rates...peaking stocks phase over months most likely starts in 2 weeks, end of month, next month Trickle Down always failed historically leading to a 2 year crash in markets and significant Depression ... a new Great Depression about 2016 lasting many years or even decadesMy jeffolie view always stress a simplistic phrase "POLITICS MATTERS" The most likely turning point will feature a "POLITICAL EVENT" such as after the Germany Sept 22 elections or a war impacting Iran's OIL perhaps from an Israeli attack followed by an American military action in the Spring of 2014. Denninger rarely if ever ventures into world politics as important to American economics ... his emphasis remains the FED
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Jul 16, 2013 11:42:01 GMT -6
I'll have to watch the video when I get home.
I completely agree that something is going to happen, though I would not try to predict when.
We can't keep sending all of our wealth-producing, higher-wage jobs overseas--and then expect wage-starved American consumers to not only keep spending, but increase their spending.
There is nothing supporting consumer spending. Real wages are declining. Potential workers are increasing at a faster rate than the jobs for them (i.e, the demand for them). As such, real wages will continue to fall, reducing spending power, purchase of production, demand for production, and demand for workers needed to provide production.
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Jul 21, 2013 10:35:00 GMT -6
Denninger's video was interesting and informative, to say the least.
The most significant part was about Bernanke's putting $1 trillion into economy each year, which is a 6.5% growth of credit/money supply (in Current Dollar terms) (~1 trillion/15.5 trillion
I agree with Denninger that this would cause a 6.5% GDP increase by itself. This is exactly what it calculates out to.
As Denninger stated, GDP would have to grow 6.5% just to break even.
I have to differ a little with Denninger's final calculation, however.
Though Denninger states actual growth is less than 2%, this refers to real GDP growth (i.e., inflation-adjusted)
Current-dollar figures, not real figures, should be used to measure the effect of $1 trillion of Fed monetary expansion.
Over the last 4 quarters, this has been roughly $524 billion. Total GDP expanded from $15.478 trillion in Q1 2012 to $16.004 trillion in Q1 2013.
That's roughly a +3.4% real dollar expansion.
Again, as Denninger stated, the Fed's $1 trillion expansion would amount to roughly +6.5% GDP growth.
So if it's only 3.4%, then we've actually lost -3.1% of our GDP (i.e., our economy contracted 3.1%)
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Post by jeffolie on Jul 21, 2013 12:57:53 GMT -6
Denninger's video was interesting and informative, to say the least.
The most significant part was about Bernanke's putting $1 trillion into economy each year, which is a 6.5% growth of credit/money supply (in Current Dollar terms) (~1 trillion/15.5 trillion
I agree with Denninger that this would cause a 6.5% GDP increase by itself. This is exactly what it calculates out to.
As Denninger stated, GDP would have to grow 6.5% just to break even.
I have to differ a little with Denninger's final calculation, however.
Though Denninger states actual growth is less than 2%, this refers to real GDP growth (i.e., inflation-adjusted)
Current-dollar figures, not real figures, should be used to measure the effect of $1 trillion of Fed monetary expansion.
Over the last 4 quarters, this has been roughly $524 billion. Total GDP expanded from $15.478 trillion in Q1 2012 to $16.004 trillion in Q1 2013.
That's roughly a +3.4% real dollar expansion.
Again, as Denninger stated, the Fed's $1 trillion expansion would amount to roughly +6.5% GDP growth.
So if it's only 3.4%, then we've actually lost -3.1% of our GDP (i.e., our economy contracted 3.1%)
The Type 1 rich consumer within the upper 20% of wealth and incomes have thrived during the decline of -3.1% of our GDP (i.e., our economy contracted 3.1%)
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