twk
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Post by twk on Mar 11, 2014 11:43:13 GMT -6
Cutting Off Extended Unemployment Benefits Was A Mistake, And Now The Economy's Paying For It Read more: bonddad.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-cutoff-in-extended-unemployment.html#ixzz2vg2qwlhLThe cutoff in extended unemployment benefits by Congress wasn't just vile, it explains much of the economic weakness so far this year. Before getting to the main subject of this post, let me say that I consider it an act of moral depravity to have cut off extended unemployment benefits when both unemployment and underemployment remain so high. Even if I were to accept the critique that such benefits create a "hammock" making certain people comfortable in their unemployment, the fact is that millions of the unemployed are *not* comfortable in their unemployment. There simply aren't enough jobs to absorb the millions of people who have looked for a job and cannot find one. ... But cutting off extended unemployment benefits at the beginning of this year wasn't just vile, it is actually harming the economy. It appears to be the primary additional factor beyond the unusually severe winter weather in the raft of relatively poor data we have seen so far this year. ... this comparison tells us how confident or pinched consumers feel: As I have previously shown, in every business cycle since World War 2, YoY retail sales have declined further than YoY PCE's prior to the onset of a recession. January 2014 marks the first month since the beginning of the 2009 economic expansion that YoY retail sales are significantly below YoY PCE's. ... There has been much commentary that the relatively poor winter weather only explained part of the slump in much of the economic data these last several months. The sudden elimination of $1200 a month spending power to 2 million people since January first is an excellent candidate for explaining that slump. So the cutoff in extended unemployment benefits isn't just vile, it is counterproductive as well.
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twk
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Post by twk on Mar 11, 2014 11:44:35 GMT -6
community.xe.com/forum/xe-market-analysis/us-employment-situation-far-weaker-feburary-jobs-number-suggestsThe US employment situation is far weaker than the Feburary jobs number suggests While February job growth was decent at +175,000, the overall US employment picture in the last few months has deteriorated substantially. First of all, since 2009 there was been some apparent unresolved seasonality in the report: winter employment report were considerably stronger than summer employment reports. Not so this year, as shown in the below graph of the percent of YoY employment gains: ... Seven out of the 9 previous times that the YoY% change in aggregate hours was as low as it is now, the economy had entered a recession. I hasten to add that very few other economic data series look as poor as aggregate hours do now. I suspect this is transitory weakness due partly to the unusually severe winter, and also the cutoff in extended unemployment benefits, which had its biggest impact in January and February. ...
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twk
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Post by twk on Mar 11, 2014 11:58:45 GMT -6
So why do these unemployed people not retrain for the new jobs of the future, like the numerous unfilled STEM jobs. ================================================================== What's a STEM job you ask en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STEM_fieldsSTEM is an acronym referring to the fields of study science, technology, engineering, and mathematics.[1] The term is typically used in addressing education policy and curriculum choices in schools from kindergarten through college to improve competitiveness in technology development. It has implications for workforce development, national security concerns and immigration policy.[1] ... In the United States In the United States, the acronym began to be used in education and immigration debates in initiatives to begin to address the perceived lack of qualified candidates for high-tech jobs. It also addresses concern that the subjects are often taught in isolation, instead of as an integrated curriculum.[3] Maintaining a citizenry that is well versed in the STEM fields is a key portion of the public education agenda of the United States.[4] The acronym has been widely used in the immigration debate regarding access to United States work visas for immigrants who are skilled in these fields. It has also become commonplace in education discussions as a reference to the shortage of skilled workers and inadequate education in these areas.[5] ... Immigration policy Although many organizations in the United States follow the guidelines of the National Science Foundation on what constitutes a STEM field, the United States Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has its own functional definition used for immigration policy.[9] In 2012, DHS or ICE announced an expanded list of science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) designated-degree programs that qualify eligible graduates on student visas for an optional practical training (OPT) extension. Under the OPT program, international students who graduate from colleges and universities in the United States are able to remain in the country and receive training through work experience for up to 12 months. Students who graduate from a designated STEM degree program can remain for an additional 17 months on an OPT STEM extension.[10] The expanded list released by DHS in 2012 full list can be found at www.ice.gov/doclib/sevis/pdf/stem-list.pdf. ...
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twk
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Post by twk on Mar 11, 2014 12:04:28 GMT -6
Once you become long term unemployed, you are basically skipped over. Add the fact that you over 50 years old, and the situation gets worse. Even long term unemployed STEM workers can have a hard time finding work, but supposedly there is a shortage of STEM workers. To illustrate, we can look at an article, from a potential employer's perception, that talks about how hard it is to find "competent people" for programming jobs (i.e. STEM jobs) : ====================================================== www.joelonsoftware.com/articles/FindingGreatDevelopers.htmlJoel on Software Finding Great Developers by Joel Spolsky Wednesday, September 06, 2006 Where are all those great developers? The first time you try to fill an open position, if you’re like most people, you place some ads, maybe browse around the large online boards, and get a ton of resumes. As you go through them, you think, “hmm, this might work,” or, “no way!” or, “I wonder if this person could be convinced to move to Buffalo.” What doesn’t happen, and I guarantee this, what never happens is that you say, “wow, this person is brilliant! We must have them!” In fact you can go through thousands of resumes, assuming you know how to read resumes, which is not easy, and I’ll get to that on Friday, but you can go through thousands of job applications and quite frankly never see a great software developer. Not a one. Here is why this happens. The great software developers, indeed, the best people in every field, are quite simply never on the market. The average great software developer will apply for, total, maybe, four jobs in their entire career. ... Astute readers, I expect, will point out that I’m leaving out the largest group yet, the solid, competent people. They’re on the market more than the great people, but less than the incompetent, and all in all they will show up in small numbers in your 1000 resume pile, but for the most part, almost every hiring manager in Palo Alto right now with 1000 resumes on their desk has the same exact set of 970 resumes from the same minority of 970 incompetent people that are applying for every job in Palo Alto, and probably will be for life, and only 30 resumes even worth considering, of which maybe, rarely, one is a great programmer. OK, maybe not even one. And figuring out how to find those needles in a haystack, we shall see, is possible but not easy.
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twk
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Post by twk on Mar 11, 2014 12:23:51 GMT -6
My point is that there are lots of people out there that want to work but can not find work. Many of these workers are "great" workers, but due to the great recession they have been unemployed for extended periods.
Unfortunately these people are being passed over by potential employers. Even congress is turning their back on them through their political bickering.
Yes both parties, but the republicans are probably more to blame.
For example, congress quickly approved $1.0 billion for the Ukraine, continued funding the "too big to fail" F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, around $1 trillion dollars over the life of the program (one GAO estimate), flood insurance was subsidized for the rich folks living on the ocean shores, etc. etc.
You can fill in the blanks with other government funded projects that happened without much political bickering also. Probably better examples than mine.
It is terrible/shameful that congress is using the long term unemployed for their political purposes.
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