Post by unlawflcombatnt on Jan 14, 2007 14:57:59 GMT -6
InvestorInsight
Though the title of the site is "Investor Insight," the author (John Mauldin) also provides a lot of good macro insight into current economic conditions. He's also another analyst who's predicting a recession.
I initially ran into this sight through the graphics posted from this site, which are very useful. (Those graphics contain "investorinsight" in their link.) Most of the graphics are housing-related, as the author believes the Housing Bubble is a big problem for our economy and will be the initiator of a recession.
As an example of Mauldin's analysis, here is his commentary from 1/12/07.
"by John Mauldin
1/12/2007...
Introduction
(Got) a lot of mail as usual from readers about my annual forecast. It was about evenly divided between those who think I am too much of an optimist and those who think the economy will avoid a recession. There are a number of readers who think we have already seen the bottom, and that 2007 will be a banner growth year.
Let me be clear about one thing. My call for a mild recession/slowdown stems almost entirely from my thought that housing is going to be a real problem in the coming quarters. This will cause a slowdown in Mortgage Equity Withdrawals and put pressure on consumer spending. It will cause a rise in unemployment, which is also bad for consumer spending. If the housing market does not slow down a lot more than it already has, then my forecast is going to be wrong. It is as simple as that.
And as is typical of changes in the economy, there are a lot of mixed signals. Certainly the rather solid December consumer spending number we got today does not suggest there is much pressure on the US consumer. Retail sales account for almost half of all consumer spending, which in turn makes up more than two-thirds of gross domestic product. Today's government report provides a broader picture than industry figures, which showed a disappointing holiday shopping season.
Same-store sales rose an anemic 3.1% for December on an annual basis. But those figures are only 17% of retail sales. The government data shows consumers were busy elsewhere, either at restaurants, the internet, or buying health care, among a lot of places besides the mall to spend your money.
And certainly the stock market sees no problem, with another record close today for the Dow. On a technical basis, there are a lot of reasons to suggest this market may go higher in the short term. So if your forward looking view is six days or a month, you may have reason to be optimistic. If you are looking at a longer time period, and/or agree with me that a recession/slowdown is in our future, then the stock market may indeed pose more of a challenge."
InvestorInsight
Though the title of the site is "Investor Insight," the author (John Mauldin) also provides a lot of good macro insight into current economic conditions. He's also another analyst who's predicting a recession.
I initially ran into this sight through the graphics posted from this site, which are very useful. (Those graphics contain "investorinsight" in their link.) Most of the graphics are housing-related, as the author believes the Housing Bubble is a big problem for our economy and will be the initiator of a recession.
As an example of Mauldin's analysis, here is his commentary from 1/12/07.
"by John Mauldin
1/12/2007...
Introduction
(Got) a lot of mail as usual from readers about my annual forecast. It was about evenly divided between those who think I am too much of an optimist and those who think the economy will avoid a recession. There are a number of readers who think we have already seen the bottom, and that 2007 will be a banner growth year.
Let me be clear about one thing. My call for a mild recession/slowdown stems almost entirely from my thought that housing is going to be a real problem in the coming quarters. This will cause a slowdown in Mortgage Equity Withdrawals and put pressure on consumer spending. It will cause a rise in unemployment, which is also bad for consumer spending. If the housing market does not slow down a lot more than it already has, then my forecast is going to be wrong. It is as simple as that.
And as is typical of changes in the economy, there are a lot of mixed signals. Certainly the rather solid December consumer spending number we got today does not suggest there is much pressure on the US consumer. Retail sales account for almost half of all consumer spending, which in turn makes up more than two-thirds of gross domestic product. Today's government report provides a broader picture than industry figures, which showed a disappointing holiday shopping season.
Same-store sales rose an anemic 3.1% for December on an annual basis. But those figures are only 17% of retail sales. The government data shows consumers were busy elsewhere, either at restaurants, the internet, or buying health care, among a lot of places besides the mall to spend your money.
And certainly the stock market sees no problem, with another record close today for the Dow. On a technical basis, there are a lot of reasons to suggest this market may go higher in the short term. So if your forward looking view is six days or a month, you may have reason to be optimistic. If you are looking at a longer time period, and/or agree with me that a recession/slowdown is in our future, then the stock market may indeed pose more of a challenge."
InvestorInsight