Post by unlawflcombatnt on May 8, 2007 15:00:03 GMT -6
From a long-winded article from May 2005 regarding the benefits of the latest Doha trade negotiations, the actual potential "benefits" are described. The potential increase in U.S. income with full trade liberalization is +0.1% by 2015. The potential increase in U.S. GDP from full liberalization is 0.0%.
The article is titled Market and Welfare Reforms of Doha Reform Proposals, and was written by Kym Anderson, Will Martin, and Dominique van der Messbrugghe for the World Bank.
I would not recommend that anyone read this long and twisted account. (Even economist Dean Baker called it a "diatribe".) I would, however, draw readers' attention to the tables shown in the last half of the article.
From the tables in the study, it appears that the potential gain to U.S. income from full trade liberalization by 2015 is only 0.1%. This number is shown in at least 3 of the tables- Table 2, Table 6, and Table A-5. From Table 2, the real income gain for the United States by 2015 would be only $16.2 billion. (For comparison, the annual budget for the state of California is $100 billion.) The "alternate" scenarios show an even smaller U.S. income gain, ranging from only 0.01% to 0.05%. Worldwide, the total estimated income gain from total liberalization of trade was only +0.7%.
Below is a copy of Table A-5. The income & GDP numbers for the U.S. are underlined in red.
Table A-7 shows that U.S. (non-food) merchandise exports would DECLINE by $10 billion by 2015 with full global trade liberalization. (Just what our declining manufacturing sector needs-an agreement that will cause further declines).
As best as I can tell from the charts, U.S. tariffs are lower than any other country in the world (Though I'm not completely sure I read the charts correctly on this.)
The authors' conclusion reads "In conclusion, the July Framework Agreement does not guarantee major gains from the Doha Development Agenda. On the one hand, even if an agreement is ultimately reached, it may
be very modest...."
"Modest" indeed. For the United States, the benefit is essentially 0.
The microscopic alleged "benefits" to full trade liberalization certainly don't seem to justify the massive increase in income inequality it'll cause. And this is assuming that there actually is any benefit at all.
The article is titled Market and Welfare Reforms of Doha Reform Proposals, and was written by Kym Anderson, Will Martin, and Dominique van der Messbrugghe for the World Bank.
I would not recommend that anyone read this long and twisted account. (Even economist Dean Baker called it a "diatribe".) I would, however, draw readers' attention to the tables shown in the last half of the article.
From the tables in the study, it appears that the potential gain to U.S. income from full trade liberalization by 2015 is only 0.1%. This number is shown in at least 3 of the tables- Table 2, Table 6, and Table A-5. From Table 2, the real income gain for the United States by 2015 would be only $16.2 billion. (For comparison, the annual budget for the state of California is $100 billion.) The "alternate" scenarios show an even smaller U.S. income gain, ranging from only 0.01% to 0.05%. Worldwide, the total estimated income gain from total liberalization of trade was only +0.7%.
Below is a copy of Table A-5. The income & GDP numbers for the U.S. are underlined in red.
Table A-7 shows that U.S. (non-food) merchandise exports would DECLINE by $10 billion by 2015 with full global trade liberalization. (Just what our declining manufacturing sector needs-an agreement that will cause further declines).
As best as I can tell from the charts, U.S. tariffs are lower than any other country in the world (Though I'm not completely sure I read the charts correctly on this.)
The authors' conclusion reads "In conclusion, the July Framework Agreement does not guarantee major gains from the Doha Development Agenda. On the one hand, even if an agreement is ultimately reached, it may
be very modest...."
"Modest" indeed. For the United States, the benefit is essentially 0.
The microscopic alleged "benefits" to full trade liberalization certainly don't seem to justify the massive increase in income inequality it'll cause. And this is assuming that there actually is any benefit at all.