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Post by unlawflcombatnt on May 10, 2007 13:52:13 GMT -6
Today's worse-than-expected Trade Balance report knocked almost 0.2% off of 1st quarter GDP. (From the previously published 1.3% down to 1.1%.) The Trade Balance for March was $4.6 billion greater than expected at -$63.9 billion The predicted deficit was only -$59.3 billion. Since the previously predicted number (-$59.3 billion) was used to calculate 1st quarter GDP, this downward revision reduces the initial estimate of 1st quarter GDP by $4.6 billion in current dollars. This reduces 1st quarter real GDP growth from 1.3% down to 1.1%. (Some analysts have even put 1st quarter GDP estimates at below 1%.) The original 1st quarter GDP estimate from April 24th can be found at the Bureau of Economic Analysis in Table 3. Some analysts have even put the estimate of Once again, it's hard to call this a "Goldilocks" economy with an annualized GDP growth of only 1.1%. In fact, it looks like one of the 3 bears ate Goldilocks.
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Post by blueneck on May 10, 2007 19:33:28 GMT -6
What is the current percentage of trade deficit to GDP? It has to be getting closer to comrade Buchanan's prediction of 8% or the highest ever in history.
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on May 10, 2007 22:47:09 GMT -6
Actually, the latest trade numbers from the Census Bureau (page 4) show a 1st quarter Trade deficit of -$180.661 billion, or an annualized -$722.644 billion. This deficit is $10.44 larger than the originally posted deficit in the BEA's initial GDP guesstimate of -$712.2 billion. In chained 2000 dollars, this $10.44 billion is reduced to $8.8 billion. This reduces annualized real 1st quarter GDP growth to roughly 0.96%. The -$722.644 billion would be a trade deficit of about 5.3%.
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