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Post by psychecc on Aug 13, 2008 14:29:18 GMT -6
This is the Dept. of Commerce Report, or as Unlawful calls it, the Dept. of Commercials. Link to full article follows. Retail Sales Drop for First Time in 5 MonthsBy Reuters | 13 Aug 2008 | 10:39 AM ET U.S. retail sales edged down 0.1 percent in July on a big drop at auto dealers, the government said Wednesday in a report suggesting consumers were straining to keep spending up amid rising prices.
A separate report showed a bigger-than-expected jump in import prices, underlining the pressure costlier oil was putting on the economy. Over the past 12 months, import prices have soared 21.6 percent -- the biggest gain in 26 years.
The drop in retail sales reported by the Commerce Department was the first since February and suggested a big boost to spending from government stimulus checks was fading.
Auto sales fell 2.4 percent, the biggest drop since April, and were off a whopping 10.5 percent from a year ago.
"This data is consistent with our bearish forecast of personal consumption throughout the second half of 2008," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at Merk Investments.
"Going forward a tight credit environment, a deteriorating labor sector and elevated prices will act as a significant constraint on consumption," he said. ....www.cnbc.com/id/26174338
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Aug 13, 2008 20:19:19 GMT -6
www.census.gov/marts/www/marts_current.pdfThe -0.1% in Retail Sales is in non-inflation adjusted current dollars. The July inflation numbers, which will come out tomorrow, will probably make the real-dollar decline even larger. The 12-month current dollar increase was +2.6%. The 12-month increase in the CPI was +4.8%. This mean over the last 12-months, real Retail Sales have -2.2%. Since Retail Sales account for 1/2 of total our total Consumer Spending, which accounts for 72% of our GDP, it means the 35% of our GDP attributable to Retail Sales 'd -2.2%. The annualized Retail Sales for 2008 would be roughly $4.5 trillion. A -2.2% would be roughly -$100 billion, or about 0.8% of our GDP.
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