Post by agito on Nov 7, 2008 16:15:31 GMT -6
ran across this after surfing away from some of todays reading, and I think it gives a hint of what the republican party will struggle with over the course of the next 4 years.
www.cato-at-liberty.org/2007/02/02/the-libertarian-vote-new-returns-trickle-in/
ironically, it was written in july of 07.
(the more up to date version is here)
There's a few ramifications that have to be dealt with here, and makes for an interesting preview of struggles to come.
1) how will this struggle manifest itself in 2010?
it would be easy to picture huckabee vs romney and a decisive winner take all showdown for control over the future of the religous right as a contingent in the republican party, but before that happens- the republicans actually have to run some people in 2010. This may be a case where the primaries for republican downticket races will prove more enlightening than actual elections!
2) Romney isn't godless
but he could fake it. Unfortunately, faking it or not, his presence is another nail in the coffin for the religous right. Add to that, his celebrated speech on the importance of religion will be on endless replay.
3) Religous voters go to ... democrats(!) to execute their agenda
and no, this isn't a good thing for democrats. Pleasing yet another special interest in the coalition will not make things easy. But the religousright agenda will shift, ironically through Darwinian means! In the religous agenda there will be those that focus on Roe V Wade, and then there will be those that focus school vouchers, something Obama has hinted at supporting. The pro-lifers will continue their battle, but waste resources while accomplishing nothing. Meanwhile, the dissaffected will focus their resources into vouchers, and, upon encountering minimal successes, will pull in more resources. Democrats then struggle with the ACLU and teachers union on one side and this new contingent of Religous Agenda and middle class soccer moms as special interests fighting for resources. (a saavy republican with libertarian integrity could pick up the endorsement of the ACLU from this).
4) 2012 will be 2 referendums
the first referendum will be straight out on Obama, but the downticket races will succeed or suffer from this. The second referendum will be within the republican party, occurring during the primaries. Unlike the Obama v Clinton primaries, this struggle will be more passionate as there are definitive idealogical differences between huckabee and his nonmormomRomney opponent. Success for Huckabee will hinge on 2 factors. Obama's success, and republicans opening up primary votes to independent voters.
If Obama is successful, more independents and republican crossovers from 2008 will stay (D), leaving less libertarians to vote for the non-romney. If the republicans continue in their tradition of keeping independents out of primary voting, the non-romney loses out on more prospective votes.
Unfortunately for republicans, huckabee's gain is the republicans loss as they don't manage to win the election or make gains congressionally.
this is a lot to draw upon from a biased source, but i think it will be pertinent in at least some magnitude over the course of the coming years.
www.cato-at-liberty.org/2007/02/02/the-libertarian-vote-new-returns-trickle-in/
ironically, it was written in july of 07.
(the more up to date version is here)
There's a few ramifications that have to be dealt with here, and makes for an interesting preview of struggles to come.
1) how will this struggle manifest itself in 2010?
it would be easy to picture huckabee vs romney and a decisive winner take all showdown for control over the future of the religous right as a contingent in the republican party, but before that happens- the republicans actually have to run some people in 2010. This may be a case where the primaries for republican downticket races will prove more enlightening than actual elections!
2) Romney isn't godless
but he could fake it. Unfortunately, faking it or not, his presence is another nail in the coffin for the religous right. Add to that, his celebrated speech on the importance of religion will be on endless replay.
3) Religous voters go to ... democrats(!) to execute their agenda
and no, this isn't a good thing for democrats. Pleasing yet another special interest in the coalition will not make things easy. But the religous
4) 2012 will be 2 referendums
the first referendum will be straight out on Obama, but the downticket races will succeed or suffer from this. The second referendum will be within the republican party, occurring during the primaries. Unlike the Obama v Clinton primaries, this struggle will be more passionate as there are definitive idealogical differences between huckabee and his nonmormomRomney opponent. Success for Huckabee will hinge on 2 factors. Obama's success, and republicans opening up primary votes to independent voters.
If Obama is successful, more independents and republican crossovers from 2008 will stay (D), leaving less libertarians to vote for the non-romney. If the republicans continue in their tradition of keeping independents out of primary voting, the non-romney loses out on more prospective votes.
Unfortunately for republicans, huckabee's gain is the republicans loss as they don't manage to win the election or make gains congressionally.
this is a lot to draw upon from a biased source, but i think it will be pertinent in at least some magnitude over the course of the coming years.