Most financial analysts are little more than soothsayers. Their mission is to sell their worthless stocks to gullible investors, not to provide honest and accurate information. These financial "experts" are trained to find the silver lining in any cloud they can find one in. And if they can't find it, they create one.
Luskin's comments are the most idiotic I've seen in recent times. He refers to "institutional" investors. It is Luskin who should be "institutionalized."
Even Larry "I-lost-my-straitjacket" Kudlow isn't that insane. Luskin should give back all of the money he's ever made in the stock market, and then put even more money away somewhere, so he can pay back the investors he's currently duping.
The question is not "when will the recession end?" The question is whether it will
ever end at all. There is absolutely NOTHING on the horizon to pick up the economy after the stimulus packages have run their course.
The only real hope is that we will eliminate our trade deficit, and restore the
-$700 billion of annual aggregate production demand that leaks out of our economy into imports. And, to a similar extent, we must reduce the influx of surplus workers for a rapidly shrinking job market.
We could begin the process by putting triple digit tariffs on everything that comes out of China. That would help greatly with our
-$260 billion trade deficit with China. We should also demand that VATs be eliminated by our trading partners who use them. Otherwise we'll put 100% tariffs on all of their imports. (We have a
-$120 billion trade deficit with the VAT-abusing Eurozone.)
We could immediately cancel NAFTA, and put 100% tariffs on everything coming out of Canada or Mexico (That's another
-$136 billion in trade deficit that needs to be eliminated.) We should also tell Japan that from this date forward, they
will buy the same dollar value of goods from the US that they sell to us. If they don't comply immediately, ALL of their imports will be subject to a 100% tariff. (Japan could easily solve this problem by moving more of their auto-making facilities to the US. Apparently, American workers are cheaper than Japanese workers, since they moved some facilities already.)
If the WTO has any problems with US actions, we'll just get out of the WTO. (We should get out anyway. They've never done anything to protect the US from unfair trade practices.)
And we need to stop the inflow of even more surplus workers. With 144 million employed workers, and 234 Americans of working age, we have a 90 million surplus of workers. And this surplus will only grow, as the number of working age Americans continues to
rise at the rate of 2 million/year, while jobs are
declining at the rate of 2 million/year. We need absolutely 0 new workers in this country, either through legal visas, or via il-legal immigration.
We need mandatory use of E-verify for 100% of US workers and employers. The service is free to employers, so there's no excuse for them not using it. Furthermore, it is the illegal, greed-motivated hiring of illegal immigrants that drives illegal immigration. It is the involved
employers themselves that must be sought out an prosecuted.
Though not the most effective measure, a border fence is certainly a useful addition. And a border fence has one huge advantage over other measures -- it's permanent. It's not subject to the whims of Congress or the President. Once it's built, its there. Its effects are ongoing and permanent, and not subject to "repeal" or "modification" by government officials or the whining of special interest groups (Like the US Chamber of Commerce). Given that roughly 1 million illegal immigrants are caught (and returned) at the border each year, stopping them at the border is a useful measure. If 1 million are stopped at the border each year, that's 1 million less low-wage workers that Americans must compete with for jobs and wages. (Again, with 90 million surplus workers, we don't need ANY more workers.)
On top of that, we need an immediate moratorium on legal visas, especially H1Bs. We produce several times more high-skilled science, computer, and engineering grads per year than the jobs to employ them. Legal visa-holding immigrants are let in for the exclusive purpose of driving wages down in their respective fields, not due to a lack of skilled workers.
In combination, the above measures would increase American labor demand by increasing the number of jobs available to Americans, while also reducing the surplus of workers available for those jobs. This would increase the job-to-worker ratio, which is at the heart of America's economic woes.
If we can't do most of the above, and fairly soon, we're finished.
We'll become a 3rd world banana republic (at best).
Revolution will then be the only option for Americans to take back control of government -- and once again become a nation that is "Of the People, By the People, and For the People."