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Post by mdub on Apr 2, 2010 13:01:43 GMT -6
I'm not sure what to make of the government's B1 and A1 tables, or the Birth/Death model.
The B1 table said the economy added 162K jobs. Gov't added almost 100K, so that leaves 60K private sector jobs, but how many of them were due to the B/D model, which added 81K?
The BLS yesterday had an online Q&A session. I asked a few questions about the B/D model, and got no response.
The A1 table says the econmy added 300K jobs last month and 250K this month. If this were true, wouldn't we be hearing about corporations hiring tens of thousands of people? And shouldn't the unemployment rate go down a little if we added 550K jobs in the last 2 months? Is the gov't just making this up?
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Post by jeffolie on Apr 2, 2010 13:35:19 GMT -6
mdub : "Is the gov't just making this up?"
The government lies.
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Apr 2, 2010 14:57:17 GMT -6
I'm not sure what to make of the government's B1 and A1 tables, or the Birth/Death model. The B1 table said the economy added 162K jobs. Gov't added almost 100K, so that leaves 60K private sector jobs, but how many of them were due to the B/D model, which added 81K? It is pretty confusing. From what I saw, however, Gov't added only 39K jobs. The Federal Gov't added 48K. ( Table B-1, page 30) The Federal Gov't itself, however, has added a whopping +1.3 million jobs over the last year. Without that addition, the March 2009 to March 2010 job loss would have been -3.25 million, instead of only -1.95 million. It's unclear how much of the 81K "imputed" job addition is phony. I suspect most of it is. According to those more knowledgeable than myself, you can't directly subtract the 81K jobs from the +162K. The most interesting calculation, however, is the aggregate decline in real wages. Though average weekly wages increased by +1.76% ( page 5), total employment fell by -1.38% ( page 11). But if we account for the 2.3% CPI increase from Mar 09 to Feb 10, that subtracts -2.3% from real wages. +1.76% - 1.38% - 2.3% = -1.92%. So aggregate real wage-financed buying power declined by -1.92% since the previous March.
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