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Post by graybeard on Apr 16, 2010 20:28:41 GMT -6
There has been continuous extensive air travel disruption across large parts of Europe since the second 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano on 14 April 2010, stranding millions of travellers.
The eruption occurred beneath glacial ice and the cold water from melting ice chilled the lava quickly causing it to fragment into glass, creating small glass particles that get carried into the eruption plume. This, together with the magnitude of the eruption, created a glass-rich plume in the upper atmosphere, which is very hazardous to aircraft.[1] The presence and location of the plume depend upon the state of the eruption and the winds.
As a result there were significant flight delays in Austria, Belgium, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Faroe Islands, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom, with most major European airports being closed.[2] [3] [4]
On 16 April, Irish airline Ryanair — the world's largest[5] in terms of international passenger numbers — cancelled all flights to and from Britain, Ireland, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden, the Netherlands, northern France, northern Germany, Poland and the Baltic states until midday Monday 19 April. The announcement was described as "the biggest yet on any European airline".[6]
As of 16 April 2010 (2010 -04-16)[update] at 19:00 GMT the eruption was continuing. The forecast for 17 April at 06:00 showed a significant plume continuing over northern Europe.[7] On 16 April 20:00 GMT the ash cloud was expected to reach Kazakhstan.
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This eruption and subsequent air travel disruptions could be an unforeseen black swan event with results we can only begin to imagine.
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The most severe restrictions to air travel in recent times were in response to the attacks of 11 September 2001 in the United States; all civil air traffic in US airspace, and to and from the USA, was grounded for three days. The Eyjafjallajökull eruption grounded most air traffic in northern Europe from 15 April 2010, and there was no sign of significant improvement as of the forecast for 17 April at 06:00 GMT.
Professor Bill McGuire of the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre said on 15 April "Such a large eruption ... would have the potential to severely affect air travel at high northern latitudes for six months or more". The last time the volcano erupted in 1821, it spewed ash for two years. Geophysicists in Iceland said that the production of ash from Eyjafjallajokull is likely to continue at a comparable level for some days or even weeks; a geophysicist at the Icelandic Meteorological Office said "Where it disrupts travel depends on the weather. It depends how the wind carries the ash". [8] The European air traffic control organisation said on the evening of 15 April that flights could be disrupted for another 48 hours.[9]
Although dangerous for planes, the current plume is not expected to cause significant health problems in the United Kingdom, Belgium, or the Netherlands,[10][11][12] but does provide spectacular red sunsets.[13]
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Post by fredorbob on Apr 17, 2010 8:35:15 GMT -6
2 years? That could give a 2nd Great Depression a kick in the pants.
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Post by graybeard on Apr 17, 2010 15:02:25 GMT -6
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Post by graybeard on Apr 18, 2010 5:30:18 GMT -6
How an Icelandic volcano helped spark the French Revolution
Profound effects of eight-month eruption in 1783 caused chaos from US to Egypt, say experts Greg Neale guardian.co.uk
Just over 200 years ago an Icelandic volcano erupted with catastrophic consequences for weather, agriculture and transport across the northern hemisphere – and helped trigger the French revolution.
The Laki volcanic fissure in southern Iceland erupted over an eight-month period from 8 June 1783 to February 1784, spewing lava and poisonous gases that devastated the island's agriculture, killing much of the livestock. It is estimated that perhapsa quarter of Iceland's population died through the ensuing famine.
Then, as now, there were more wide-ranging impacts. In Norway, the Netherlands, the British Isles, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, in North America and even Egypt, the Laki eruption had its consequences, as the haze of dust and sulphur particles thrown up by the volcano was carried over much of the northern hemisphere.
Ships moored up in many ports, effectively fogbound. Crops were affected as the fall-out from the continuing eruption coincided with an abnormally hot summer. A clergyman, the Rev Sir John Cullum, wrote to the Royal Society that barley crops "became brown and withered … as did the leaves of the oats; the rye had the appearance of being mildewed".
The British naturalist Gilbert White described that summer in his classic Natural History of Selborne as "an amazing and portentous one … the peculiar haze, or smokey fog, that prevailed for many weeks in this island, and in every part of Europe, and even beyond its limits, was a most extraordinary appearance, unlike anything known within the memory of man.
"The sun, at noon, looked as blank as a clouded moon, and shed a rust-coloured ferruginous light on the ground, and floors of rooms; but was particularly lurid and blood-coloured at rising and setting. At the same time the heat was so intense that butchers' meat could hardly be eaten on the day after it was killed; and the flies swarmed so in the lanes and hedges that they rendered the horses half frantic … the country people began to look with a superstitious awe, at the red, louring aspect of the sun."
Across the Atlantic, Benjamin Franklin wrote of "a constant fog over all Europe, and a great part of North America".
The disruption to weather patterns meant the ensuing winter was unusually harsh, with consequent spring flooding claiming more lives. In America the Mississippi reportedly froze at New Orleans.
The eruption is now thought to have disrupted the Asian monsoon cycle, prompting famine in Egypt. Environmental historians have also pointed to the disruption caused to the economies of northern Europe, where food poverty was a major factor in the build-up to the French revolution of 1789.
Volcanologists at the Open University's department of earth sciences say the impact of the Laki eruptions had profound consequences.
Dr John Murray said: "Volcanic eruptions can have significant effects on weather patterns for from two to four years, which in turn have social and economic consequences. We shouldn't discount their possible political impacts." Greg Neale is founding editor of BBC History Magazine
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Post by jeffolie on Apr 18, 2010 10:36:49 GMT -6
They are testing the skies. ===================================================================== AMSTERDAM -- Several major airlines safely flew test flights without passengers over Europe on Sunday despite official warnings about the dangers of a volcanic ash plume, fueling a corporate push to end an economically devastating ban on commercial air traffic. ....KLM Royal Dutch Airlines said that by midday Sunday it had flown four planes through what it described as a gap in the layer of microscopic dust over Holland and Germany. The ash began spewing from an Icelandic volcano Wednesday and has drifted across most of Europe, shutting down airports as far south and east as Bulgaria. ....Air France, Lufthansa and Austrian Airlines have also sent up test flights, although most traveled below the altitudes where the ash has been heavily concentrated. "But there is currently no consensus as to what consists an acceptable level of ash in the atmosphere," Hoeltgen said. "This is what we are concerned about and this is what we want to bring about so that we can start operating aircraft again in Europe." ....The Swiss Federal Office of Civil Aviation began allowing flights Saturday above Swiss air space as long as the aircraft were at least at 36,000 feet (11,000 meters). It also allowed flights at lower altitudes under visual flight rules, aimed at small, private aircraft. Ash and grit from volcanic eruptions can sabotage a plane in various ways: the abrasive ash can sandblast a jet's windshield, block fuel nozzles, contaminate the oil system and electronics and plug the tubes that sense airspeed. But the most immediate danger is to the engines.] ...Melted ash can then congeal on the blades and block the normal flow of air, causing engines to lose thrust or shut down. ....Scientists say that because the volcano is situated below a glacial ice cap, magma is being cooled quickly, causing explosions and plumes of grit that can be catastrophic to plane engines, depending on prevailing winds. "Normally, a volcano spews out ash to begin with and then it changes into lava, but here it continues to spew out ash, because of the glacier," said Reynir Bodvarsson, director of Swedish National Seismic Network. "It is very special." www.foxnews.com/world/2010/04/18/airlines-conduct-test-flights-europe-ash-cloud-hovers/
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Post by jeffolie on Apr 18, 2010 11:27:55 GMT -6
Risk of Katla: Could 2nd Icelandic Volcano Eruption Follow? The eruptions of the comparatively small Eyjafjallajökull glacier volcano in Iceland have historically preceded massive eruptions by the more feared Mount Katla. Experts are concerned that the present volcanic eruption could trigger activity at Mount Katla, which is potentially much more dangerous. Its last major eruption was in 1918. Icelandic volcanologists consider it plausible that Katla may erupt, and that is why they are monitoring Katla very closely right now. There are eruption channels between Eyjafjallajökull and Katla and magma could shoot into the Katla volcano. Katla might only need a nudge. Effects of Katla's eruption would put the present air travel chaos in the shade, inflicting much greater economic losses upon Europe. Deposits from the ash cloud formed by Katla when it erupted spectacularly in 1755 can still be found in peat bogs in Shetland and other parts of northern Europe. Iceland is a volcanic hot spot on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, which is the dividing line between the Eurasian and North American continental plates. The country's three major volcanoes -- Hekla, Katla and Grimsvotn -- lie along this boundary. Altogether there are 35 active volcanoes on and around the island. Icelandic settlement reaches back to the late 9th century AD, with three documented instances of an eruption in the Eyjafjallajökull volcano preceding an eruption in Katla, but 22 documented eruptions in the much more active Katla in the same period. This connection has not been lost by geologists observing the disaster. Icelandic history is rich of tales of the might of the much-feared Katla volcano. Eyjafjallajökull, which is currently filling the sky above northern Europe with ash, is a minor player in Icelandic terms -- though its last eruption lasted for more than a year, from December 1821 to January 1823. It began erupting soon after midnight on March 20th this year and the first eruption lasted for three weeks. It erupted for a second time on Wednesday April 14th and the lava is now coming out ten times faster than the last eruption. This eruption has many of the same characteristics as the eruptions in the 19th century. Whether or not the eruptions go on for nearly a year as the past eruptions did, only time will tell: 1. Some experts suggest that the present eruption could soon start tapering off; yet 2. Some leading volcanologists have warned that eruptions from Icelandic volcanic activity could last for up to a year. We can expect the volcanic ash already spewing out of Iceland to hang around in the skies for the next couple of weeks with many planes grounded across many European countries, but if Katla goes then it might last for months. Back in 1783 another volcano in Iceland caused thick fog across Europe and even spread as far as the US, for eight months! www.huffingtonpost.com/dk-matai/risk-of-katla-could-a-2nd_b_541755.html
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Post by waltc on Apr 18, 2010 11:36:19 GMT -6
It's no Black Swan event. Sure it's hammering air travel/transport but from recent news reports that the airlines are willing to risk losing planes and people in order to keep flying. Which tells me that flights will be restored shortly no matter what the volcano does.
Which means it will be much ado about nothing.
Even if the planes remain grounded the only so-called industries getting hammered would be weaker airlines, tourist related such as hotels; drug dealers, hookers and bars catering to travelers; and party planners. And even if all these businesses went under no one would notice.
For it to really impact the economy it would have to effect food crops grown in the EU. That's what you need to watch.
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Post by graybeard on Apr 18, 2010 15:16:16 GMT -6
Foods in Africa are spoiling right now, because they can't get to Europe via air.
Banks and leasing companies, AIG the largest, own all those airliners. The repurcussions will ripple through the whole worlds' economies if this continues. EU economies are fragile to begin with.
GB
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Post by waltc on Apr 18, 2010 19:48:10 GMT -6
GB
Even if the airlines were to go out of business Uncle Sam would compensate AIG and major investors. That's a given considering that we already did that with TARP and Bernanke could easily do it again since he has unlimited fiat dollars at his disposal.
But I doubt it will come to that since most airlines will be operating at half capacity by Monday. The jet engines can easily handle volcanic ash short of directly flying into a cloud of the stuff. But there is a caveat. No aircraft has had to repeatedly fly around in volcanic ash either. Given enough time those engines will incur damage and a lot of it.
I think in time a lot of aircraft will end up with engines that need serious overhaulin and that is very expensive. Some will even crash and people will die.
But that's the airline industry for ya. Putting profits over people.
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Apr 19, 2010 1:46:24 GMT -6
It's no Black Swan event. Sure it's hammering air travel/transport but from recent news reports that the airlines are willing to risk losing planes and people in order to keep flying. Which tells me that flights will be restored shortly no matter what the volcano does. Which means it will be much ado about nothing. Even if the planes remain grounded the only so-called industries getting hammered would be weaker airlines, tourist related such as hotels; drug dealers, hookers and bars catering to travelers; and party planners. And even if all these businesses went under no one would notice. Don't forget that it also affects the travel plans of American free-traitor CEO's and management, who need to constantly and personally check on their cheap foreign supply chains--like the Lipitor supply chain in Ireland. And, needless to say, the travel disruption is very distressing to those poor, persecuted Wall Street Bankster-Gangsters--who really depend on those European vacations as a respite from their tedious, demanding, and all-consuming jobs of burglarizing American taxpayers 24/7.
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Post by graybeard on Apr 19, 2010 6:42:33 GMT -6
The airlines are losing $220 Million a day. Something like 700,000 Europeans are stranded all over the world. Who's doing their jobs back home? This will have a serious ripple effect. Too bad it doesn't shut down our imports from Asia.
GB
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Post by graybeard on Apr 19, 2010 8:00:00 GMT -6
Ripple: "April 19 (Bloomberg) -- The cost of insuring Greek sovereign debt against default surged to the highest-ever based on closing prices after the travel disruption caused by Iceland’s volcano delayed talks to help resolve the country’s debt crisis."
About half of all airline travel is for business.
Then there's tourism. Florida and Hawaii economies would wither without tourists. FL is heavily dependent on Europeans.
GB
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Post by jeffolie on Apr 19, 2010 9:16:27 GMT -6
Americans are not going to Europe. Americans' tourist Dollars are staying home.
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