|
Post by jeffolie on Aug 31, 2010 12:51:16 GMT -6
Gold/silver up But oil down = deflation
Gold/silver are near their tops that have persisted for a LONG TIME.
No break out yet.
Oil is near its recent trading range lows.
Neither gold/silver nor oil have escaped their year long trading ranges.
Inflation would have to come to America from a breakdown of the Dollar. I am predicting Dollar support without a significant breakdown until the European crisis is over which I expect will take until the end of the summer of 2011. Even then, I do not expect a Dollar crisis to START until after the 2012 elections. STARTING means a process that often takes more than a year as with the USSR Rubble decline and the British Pound's post WWII decline.
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Sept 21, 2010 16:19:31 GMT -6
Oil remains dead, dead center in its trading range of $80-$70, now at $75.
Deflation was not spoken today by the FED, but in language meaning prices are declining Ben spoke of more accomodation.
|
|
|
Post by agito on Sept 23, 2010 14:57:02 GMT -6
gold/silver up + oil down = market segmentation not deflation. This is just evidence that there is more investor money than investors know what to do with and they are doing their best not be the next sucker.
Bottom line: anything that is useful is going down, while any investor class asset that is "useless" is going to bubble. I'm really surprised by gold's rise, but it looks like it's going to keep that way for awhile.
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Sept 23, 2010 16:32:11 GMT -6
What people must have and thus will buy is 'demand'. This includes food.
What people have too much of is supply. This includes houses.
Call this the basics of "poverty level supply and demand". Agricultural prices are rising while housing prices are declining. The government buys food for poor people via food stamps but not houses which are more and more vacant.
|
|