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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Dec 30, 2006 15:03:34 GMT -6
November's Existing Home Sales report showed a very slight increase of +0.6% over October. However, this small increase appears to be only a temporary pause in the long-term downtrend. November's annualized rate of 6.28 million was still less than August's rate of 6.30 million/year. Since September of 2005, the annual rate of Existing Home Sales has declined 1 million, or by 14%. Sales are down 720,000 year-over-year, for a -11% change. Existing Home prices are down 3.1% year-over-year. These changes can be seen in the charts below from Briefing.com. The top chart is the most recent report from December 28th. The bottom is from January, 2006. Below are some charts on the long-term trend in housing from the Daily ReckoningThe housing bubble is continuing to deflate, with both sales AND prices declining. Inventories of unsold homes continue to rise, putting still further downward pressure on prices. (In addition, this further reduces demand for New Home construction, and further reduces demand for workers to build New Homes.) Meanwhile, foreclosures continue to increase, putting still more homes on to an housing market already glutted with inventory. There are now almost 4 million homes for sale on the market. The housing crash is nowhere near the bottom at this time. In fact, the "bottom" isn't even in sight yet.
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Post by blueneck on Dec 30, 2006 18:34:43 GMT -6
My "gage" is looking around my own area. Homes that used to sell in a month tops and withing 2-3k of asking price now sit on the market for 3-4 months or more, are are dropping 5-10k from asking. Sure its regional thing, but a good indicator locally.
Critics are qucik to blast 'anecdotal' instances, but really - observation is the common sense check - when those around are syaing the markets great get on in, but what you are seeing contradicts that, should give you a very valid reason to pause.
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Jan 4, 2007 3:22:01 GMT -6
Here's a chart from the Christian Science Monitor showing a comparison of the changes between October 2005 and October 2006. Previously owned home prices have declined 3.5% from October to October. New home prices increased 1.9% over the same period of time. (Given that previous home sales amount to 6 times as much of the market as new home sales, the overall trend in home prices was downward, it leaves the combined total price change a -2.7% from October 2005 to October 2006.) Previously owned home sales declined 11.5% while New Home sales declined 25.4%. The combined decline in sales was 13.5%. The overall trend in home sales and prices over the last 6 months not only indicates the housing market has not "bottomed" yet, but that the decline is actually picking up speed. Expect the decline for 2007 to be larger than 2006.
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