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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Feb 28, 2007 17:28:19 GMT -6
January 2007's annualized New Home Sales declined to 937,000/year. This was a much larger decline than the 1,085,000/year predicted by the "experts." January 2007's rate represents a 20% decline compared to January 2006. January's 1-month decline is the largest since 1994. Median New Home Prices for January 2007 are 2% less than January 2006, declining from $244,900 down to 239,800 in January 2007. This information can be found at the Census Bureau site.
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Post by jeffolie on Feb 28, 2007 21:26:01 GMT -6
The true numbers of declines in sales should be over 50% because of the procedures used. Commerce counts only the signing of the contract as a sale. It should count the actual closing which would recognize the 40%-50% cancellations.
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Feb 28, 2007 23:14:30 GMT -6
The true numbers of declines in sales should be over 50% because of the procedures used. Commerce counts only the signing of the contract as a sale. It should count the actual closing which would recognize the 40%-50% cancellations. Exactly. This official number still overstates the number of new homes actually sold. Also, there were roughly 350,000 more foreclosures in 2006 than in 2005, adding even more to the home oversupply. New Home completions are still exceeding even the "official" number of homes sold. Adding in the cancellations and foreclosures greatly increases the "supply" of new homes for sale, while the demand is dropping. We're nowhere near the "bottom" of the housing decline.
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Post by ig on Mar 26, 2007 8:20:47 GMT -6
you thought that was bad take a look at february! 848K!? 15% below an already reduced forecast? time to get out the excuse o' meter! the weather was bad.....america idol was on....people dont buy houses when dancing with the stars is on......its clinton's fault......the democrats have the house and senate ..its their fault.....
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on Mar 26, 2007 13:01:40 GMT -6
you thought that was bad take a look at february! 848K!? 15% below an already reduced forecast? time to get out the excuse o' meter! The excuse o' meter might break down this month. I'm surprised the stock market hasn't dropped more. The February decline was much, MUCH worse than predicted. The optimistic Corporate propagandists were predicting an increase over January to 1 million New Home Sales. Instead, the total was only 848,000 -- a whopping 15% less than predicted. Had January not been revised downward from its original 937 K, this would have been a 1 month-decline of 10%. New home sales are now down -38% from their peak in July 2005. Median prices are down -0.3%. Unsold inventories rose to a new high of 8.1 months, much higher than the previous high of 7.2 month's-worth. Below is a graph from [url=http://www.briefing.com/Common/Images/Content/PageContent/EcData/newhom.gif ]Briefing.com[/url] showing long-term trend in New Home Sales. It certainly doesn't appear like the housing decline has "bottomed out." It looks more like it's picking up speed.
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Post by ig on Mar 26, 2007 13:10:15 GMT -6
how can anyone declare a bottom to a market where sales are falling faster than inventories is beyond me. This is basic and obvious yet the analysts and the Fed have said the worst is over.
What is over is this consumption bubble funded by inflated prices.
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