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Post by unlawflcombatnt on May 4, 2007 2:56:36 GMT -6
Home and Rental Vacancies increased dramatically in the 1st quarter. First quarter Home vacancies increased from 2.1% in the 4th quarter of 2006 to 2.8% in the 1st quarter of 2007. This is almost double the 1.5% vacancy rate in the 1st quarter of 2001. Rental vacancies increased from 9.5% in the 4th quarter of 2006 to 10.1% in the 1st quarter of 2007. This is almost 2% higher than 1st quarter 2001's 8.2%. Once again, there is no reason to think the price of homes will not continue declining. The supply of homes is increasing faster than the purchases, and the number of home & rental vacancies continues to increase.
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Post by geneonlbk on May 4, 2007 5:59:58 GMT -6
It would seem that since new home starts is declining, and the US population is increasing, it is just a matter of time until demand for housing begins to affect the housing market. In the past I have seen cycles where there is over supply followed by under supply.
I hate government intervention, yet it seems that a more efficient market could ease the large swings in our current housing industry.
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on May 5, 2007 2:57:15 GMT -6
The number of new homes started are still exceeding the number of new homes sold. In addition, the foreclosure rate is rapidly rising, putting still more homes on the market. 2006's foreclosure rate was around 1.2-1.3 million. The annualized rate for the first 3 months of 2007 is about 1.8 million. That's 500-600 thousand additional homes going on to the market besides the new homes built. Home vacancies are rising. Rental vacancies are also rising. With the supply of homes, both total & vacant increasing, and sales declining, prices have nowhere to go but down.
The number of new home starts needs to decline more than the number of new homes sold (due to the added homes from the 500-600 thousand foreclosure increase.) So far the number of starts alone is far above the number of sales. Adding in the additional homes from increased foreclosures puts the surplus of homes on the market even higher.
We're nowhere near the "bottom" of the housing market. In fact, the "bottom" is nowhere in sight.
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