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Post by jeffolie on Feb 15, 2011 12:19:48 GMT -6
Volcanos errupting over the last year in Russia's Pacific region caused the weather change. The particulates rose high enough to change some air temps, lower some air pressures, release some polar freezing air, change the flow of jet streams and impact an 'La Nina'. The results were droughts in Russia, cyclones/floods in Australia, very cold/wet winter in America and drought in China's wheat fields.
QE+++ gave money to the rich, investor class, financial elites who continue to drive retail sales and imports. Money supplies expanded rapidly in other places such as the Europeans' ECB, China, India, Vietnam, etc. Imports sustained lifestyles of exporting countries and provided money supply to bid for commodities that improve export workers lifestyles and diets. India and China face money/labor driven food price inflations not reflected in America's measures of inflation.
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Post by jeffolie on Apr 6, 2011 12:48:00 GMT -6
Weather is pushing up grains again...China's 200 year drought made China buy corn...Texas dry [not drought but getting closer to drought] pushes up wheat... I have been pointing to volcanos changing weather across the world. Sunspot pieces attempted to state a cause and effect on weather/crops but I am not so sure, maybe. I have been pointing to money printing and/or desperate rulers, governments paying top prices with debt or printed currencies. Both weather and printing currencies are adding to the food prices. My top topic in my jeffolie 2011 predictions included higher prices for everything the average American buys and food was listed in the screwflation topic. =========================================================== Wheat Gains as U.S. Crop Conditions Deteriorate to Worst Rating Since 2002Apr 6, 2011 Wheat gained after the U.S. Department of Agriculture said crop conditions in the country, the biggest exporter of the grain, declined to the lowest ratings since 2002. About 37 percent of the U.S. crop was good or excellent, down from 65 percent a year earlier, the USDA said in a report on April 4, the first this year measuring conditions in all growing states. The reading was the lowest since 2002, when 31 percent got the top ratings. “The strength in wheat is likely attributable to concerns about the U.S.” southern Plains, said Justine White, an analyst at VM Group in London. “The USDA has downgraded the crop ratings for critical growing regions following persistent dry conditions and there are fears of production losses if conditions do not improve in the near future.” Wheat for July delivery, the contract with the largest open interest, gained 1.75 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $8.245 a bushel by 8:04 a.m. in Chicago. May-delivery wheat, which has the most volume, also rose 1.75 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $7.88 a bushel. Milling wheat for November delivery traded on NYSE Liffe in Paris, which has the most volume and open interest, fell 50 euro cents, or 0.2 percent, to 219.25 euros ($313.40) a metric ton. Prices surged in the past year on demand for varieties of the grain to make bread and pasta. Corn was little changed in Chicago on speculation some investors are cashing in gains after a rally to a 33-month high. Futures added 16 percent in four sessions through yesterday after the USDA said domestic stockpiles on March 1 fell to 6.52 billion bushels, the lowest for the date since 2007, in its quarterly stockpiles report last week. ‘Think Twice’ “I would expect any weakness in the corn market to be short-lived considering the tight supply outlook,” VM Group’s White said. “Perhaps we reached levels which made buyers think twice, but they are not likely to stay on the sidelines for long. Prices may have dipped but the actual price floor seems to be getting higher, which is a sign of ongoing strength.” Corn for May delivery fell 0.5 cent to $7.6625 a bushel in Chicago. The price has more than doubled in the past year on declining stockpiles and increased demand for the grain. Soybeans for May delivery increased for the first time in four sessions in Chicago, adding 10 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $13.8325 a bushel. www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-06/corn-declines-as-investors-lock-in-gains-after-four-day-rally-wheat-gains.html
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Post by jeffolie on Apr 6, 2011 13:22:42 GMT -6
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Post by jeffolie on Apr 20, 2011 17:02:14 GMT -6
Food prices up as Texas drought, fires at 100 yr worst. A year ago this happened in Russia resulting in climbing wheat prices, 6 months ago this happened in China resulting in climbing corn prices. I did a thread on volcanos, weather and QE all contributing to high food prices ... it remains true now as it did on Feb 15th. "food up...volcanos v QE+++" ========================================================== "...Texas hope of halting the worst wildfires in the state's history....Texas is burning from "stem to stern," "..."Normally by this time of the year east Texas has greened up and will not burn -- you can't make it burn," news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110420/us_nm/us_holdtexas_wildfiresGSCI Agriculture is higher than 2010 and higher than 2009. stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$GKX
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Post by mdub on Apr 20, 2011 18:20:30 GMT -6
I'm kinda surprised east Texas is burning. I guess it's just before the humidity knicks in. When I lived in DC I couldn't remember one fire even though there are forests everywhere. It's just too humid....
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Post by jeffolie on Apr 25, 2011 16:33:58 GMT -6
Food prices up as Texas drought, fires at 100 yr worst Experts: Drought could continue in southern USA FORT WORTH, Texas (AP) — Weather experts say an extreme drought that has gripped parts of nine states is expected to drag on for several months or intensify. Portions of Texas and a small part of eastern Louisiana are the only parts of the nation that rank in the National Weather Service’s worst drought condition category. They’ve experienced the driest October through March on record since 1966-67. The rest of Texas and Louisiana also are very parched, as are parts of Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Florida. Weather experts say May could be the last chance for relief. That’s because May typically brings the most rainfall in some of the bone-dry states, including Texas and Oklahoma. The dry conditions have already led to wildfires in Texas, New Mexico and Florida. www.usatoday.com/weather/drought ... rought.htm
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Post by jeffolie on May 25, 2011 12:00:18 GMT -6
My commodities prediction came true...CRB exceeded 370.00 Weather created disruption and higher commodities prices in 2010 and 2011...droughts, floods (remember cotton skyrocketed with Pakistan's floods), fires from droughts (Russia's wheat crops burned) in Texas+ hurt crops in 2011, tornados from storms topped the damage to structures in 2011 but the overwhelming rain from these storms ruined corn planting in the US impacted areas after drought also ruined plantings, transportation down the Mississippi River has stopped and remains stopped for weeks impacting crops right now. China has a huge drought shutting river shipping, impacting crops, transport of crops and industrial supplies and/or goods (see blog.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/chi ... years-6863) : "...China faces worst drought in 50 years...Rainfall levels in Hubei, Jiangxi, Anhui, Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces is at its lowest level in 50 years. That region is typically the wettest in China so this lack of water is causing supply problems for drinking water, crop irrigation, river shipping, and electricity production....According to the World Bank, water per person in China is just a quarter of the world average and the lowest of any major economy...' For a sideshow, volcanos now are stopping air traffic in parts of Europe...Obama may be stuck for extra days with the Queen of England, etc. Money supply is a world wide process with Japan rebuilding, America's tornado/floods rebuilding having local impacts but no one does this better than bart's total money supply with rate of change chart: "...This relatively new to the public should help a lot, and are the ones I was basing my ~7% money growth figure on: Do note I'm including *net* US derivatives, not the much higher leveraged value - little of them are money, based on the "exchange" definition. Here's the long term version: www.nowandfutures.com/images/total_money01.pngThrow in suspension of aggressive FED Treasuries in June to merely rolling over Treasuries in the FED's portfolio on top of the US Government Debt Ceiling issue that will not likely be resolved until the Geithner determined early August bag of tricks date, the result is month's of slowdown with a Recession scare developing into a justification for expanding the FED's money printing under a new name yet to be determined.
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Post by jeffolie on May 29, 2011 15:01:42 GMT -6
2011 world wide droughts and floods ... food prices high ... political instability likely in many countriesA new round of revolutions from desparate masses will upset many countries that can not afford to pay the high food prices. America's Social Security cost of living will likely face upward pressure for 2012 from persistent high food prices; offseting this will be the declining housing prices and the CPI imputed homeowners' costs to rent. Drought ended some dam's production of electicity in China. China's manufacturing is already stifled or suppressed for this summer and will be limited while inflation from demand for electrical production from coal fired electical generation plants plagued by skyhigh coal prices means more Chinese inflation. ======================================================================================= [from Sunday's Press Telegram print edition]: Europe drought plaguing continent's agriculture: A drought throughtout much of northern Europe this spring is starting to hurt upcoming harvests and efforts to bring food prices down....From beer hops in southern Germany's Barvaia to cerals in eastern England and fodder shortages in many areas, the lack of rain and abundance of sushine is creating problems for farmers in much of Europe officials said. UN food adgency FAO said its earlier hopes of a 4 percent to 5 percent spike in wheat and barley production in the EU have been dashed...The Associated Press ================= Food Inflation may Rise on Spreading Global Drought05-23 Droughts spreading across the world including China, Russia, the United States and France, may further fuel the already-tough inflationary situation especially in food sector Droughts spreading across the world including China, Russia, the United States and France, may further fuel the already-tough inflationary situation especially in food sector, by leading to a new round of price hikes for agricultural products. Nearly 100 million mu (1mu equals around 0.165 acre) of crops in some Chinese provinces including Hubei, Gansu, Jiangxi and Hunan, are affected by the worst drought in 50 years, the state-run Xinhua reported, citing the Chinese Office of State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters on May 18. The disaster came just at a critical time for early season rice that needs much field care in one of the major rice producers, and the country’s Ministry of Agriculture predicted Saturday that as droughts continued, up to 3 million mu of early season rice fields were affected in Hubei Province only, while in Jiangxi, Hunan and Guangdong, droughts have diminished major rivers and lakes. The problem, moreover, has been spreading across the world. France and German in Europe, Russia, and the United States are all plagued by droughts along with the extended La Nina and high-pressure air in the north Atlantic. Spring planting has been largely delayed by 50 percent in dry weather in Russia, fueling concerns of another international price surge, after a forest fire last June strangled produce production due to the persistent hot weathers and droughts. Meanwhile, the United States is in the grip of the worst drought to hit the central and western part of the country since 1930, with the State of Texas having suffered a loss of 1.5 billion U.S. dollars already. In France, drought are plaguing 42 provinces and about 60 percent of its reservoirs have lower-than-normal water levels. Yields of wheat may plunge by 11.5 percent in 2011 in the largest wheat producer in the European Union, as reported by New York Times. The International Grains Council, a trade body, revised down global wheat production by 1000,000 tonnes between 2011 to 2012, citing drought concerns. As a result, wheat futures jumped sharply last week, with wheat futures contract to be delivered in July valued at 8.13 U.S. dollars a bushel when traded on the Chicago Board of Trade, rising nearly 10 percent. Though having declined from the peak early this year, wheat futures have been traded at a relatively high level till now. The affect of droughts in China may be typical as food has been acting as a major driving force of this round of inflation in the country. Food prices take up a nearly 30 percent of weight in the items it takes to calculate the consumer price index. If food prices bounce back, it would barely anticipate a fall in the CPI reading in the next half this year. The persistence of drought would affect the production of hydroelectricity as well, making the current power shortage that gripped many of Chinese provinces even worse. english.caijing.com.cn/2011-05-23/110726822.html
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Post by jeffolie on May 30, 2011 15:52:56 GMT -6
Some results of China's 50 year drought. Buying coal to make electricity because the drought has ended some of China's dams producing electricity: ================================================ China’s largest lake dries up May 30, 2011 How bad is the drought in China? Its largest lake, Poyang Lake, is now dried up. The amazing thing is that this lake was 100 miles long and 10 miles wide. That is one very BIG lake. Bookmark & Share Email a Friend India, China coal imports to soar by Tony Sagami on May 30, 2011 A coal analyst predicts that China’s imports of coal could double in the next 4 years, rising from 90 million metric tons in 2011 to 200 million metric tons in 2015. India’s coal imports could rise from 67 million to 100 million during the same time frame. blog.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/red ... e-know-it/ That sounds like money in the bank for coal companies.
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Post by jeffolie on Jun 10, 2011 9:22:08 GMT -6
Fires rage. Arizona is the most recent. Texas should be fresh in your memory...this year Russia's fires last year burned down their Wheat...exports were stopped resulting in Food riots in poor Arab countries. Why the floods, droughts, fires from droughts? This thread started with the experts that attribute weather changes like these to volcanos that change the flow of clouds after volcanos carbon particulates block the amount of sun and impact air temperatures. ==================================================================== 22 homes are lost in Greer; 386,000+ acres burned - and it's still just 5% contained Wallow Fire now likely to become AZ's biggestazstarnet.com/news/local/wildfir ... b1d6a.html
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Post by jeffolie on Jun 10, 2011 13:39:31 GMT -6
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Post by jeffolie on Jun 20, 2011 11:55:52 GMT -6
Food prices are impacted by changed rain, droughts, fires .... expect the trend for less food supply and higher prices generally to continue================================================================ "....The largest fire in the history of the state of Arizona continues to burn and emergency managers and responders are using satellite data from a variety of instruments to plan their firefighting containment strategies and mitigation efforts once the fires are out.... The Landsat 5 satellite captured images of the Wallow North and Horseshoe 2 fires burning in eastern Arizona ... www.spacedaily.com/reports/Lands ... y_999.html ================================================================= June 14 "... ash spewing from a volcano in Chile grounded more flights Tuesday in countries from Uruguay to Australia www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/travel/from-south-america-to-australia-ash-cloud-from-chilean-volcano-grounds-more-flights/2011/06/14/AGFez6UH_story.html============================================== China floods bring steep food price rises Regional vegetable prices rise by 40% as rains flood more that 1m acres of farmland and affect lives of 5.7 million people '...China after flooding inundated more than 1 million acres of farmland in eastern provinces, killing at least 100 people and displacing hundreds of thousands more .... Weeks of torrential rain in Zhejiang province in the Yangtze delta have caused nearly 6bn yuan (£575m) of damage, reducing vegetable production by 20% and pushing prices in the provincial capital of Hangzhou up by as much as 40% ... adding pressure to inflation already at a three-year high ... In neighbouring Jiangsu province, more than 20cm of rain fell on Suzhou city on Friday night, and the Yangtze river and its tributaries burst their banks, affecting up to 3 million people ..." www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/ju ... rice-rises
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Post by jeffolie on Jun 20, 2011 14:08:59 GMT -6
Monday, June 20, 2011 Expect More Food Price Pressures From Bloomberg: Even a fifth consecutive year of record global corn harvests will fail to meet demand for food, fuel and livestock feed, reducing world stockpiles to the lowest in two generations. Consumption will rise 3 percent in the next marketing year, a 16th consecutive annual gain that saw demand jump 66 percent, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates. Inventory will drop to 47 days of use, the fewest since 1974, the data show. Waterlogged fields in the U.S., the largest exporter, will curb yields, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says. Corn may jump 36 percent to a record $9 a bushel if conditions worsen, Morgan Stanley says. Corn purchases are accelerating as droughts and floods limit output gains in everything from soybeans to wheat, driving the Standard & Poor’s Agriculture Index of eight commodities 60 percent higher in 12 months. China, the world’s second-biggest consumer after the U.S., will use 47 percent more than a decade ago, adding an amount greater than the entire crop of Brazil, the third-largest producer. “There is a storm developing in agriculture,” said Jean Bourlot, global head of commodities at UBS AG in London. “If we have the slightest disruption in any part of the world, the effect on the price will be considerable.” bonddad.blogspot.com/2011/06/expect-more-food-price-pressures_20.html
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Post by jeffolie on Jun 20, 2011 16:24:20 GMT -6
China's farmland destroyed ... will get worse over 5+ days with thuderstorms =========================== Worst flooding in 56 years hits E China province '...Rainstorms will continue for three to five more days in the region, with thunderstorms likely..hit 10 of the province's cities... 241,600 hectares of farmland have been destroyed and 1,846factories....Heavy rains have struck provinces across China in recent weeks, including Hubei, Anhui, Jiangxi, Yuannan, Gansu and Xinjiang.....Rain-triggered floods that have swept south China since early this month..." news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2011-06/20/c_13940264.htm'
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Post by jeffolie on Jun 28, 2011 10:26:32 GMT -6
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Post by jeffolie on Jul 9, 2011 12:54:05 GMT -6
China wants domestric meat from corn fed creatures and full bellies ... supplies from imports avert food riots, shortages Prices found support as China bought the recent dip and overwhelmed the demand estimates even though America upcoming crop supply estimates exceeded prior expectations. Bad weather across the world with African, Chinese, American droughts left selective countries without domestic crop supplies ... they must import or political instability will end rulers governments. ================================================= HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — China’s consumer prices accelerated to a-three-year high in June as food prices soared 14.4%, according to data released Saturday, reaffirming expectations that Beijing won’t be in a hurry to relax its monetary stance even if it may not aggressively pursue more interest-rate increases. Monthly data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China showed the consumer price index for June climbed 6.4 % from the same period the year before. Many economists had expected the rise to be between 6.2% and 6.4%. www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas ... 2011-07-09 =================================== JULY 9, 2011. China's Hunger for Corn Turns Market on Ear Demand From Beijing Augurs Higher Food, Futures Prices online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... bout_china
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Post by jacquelope on Jul 9, 2011 13:41:32 GMT -6
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Post by jeffolie on Jul 9, 2011 15:12:29 GMT -6
Politics matter. Iowa is the 1st big primary state and corn is big. Congress has often considered cutting back on farm subsidies but always favored Iowa and corn to avoid a political setback in the primary. Ethanol from specially genetically designed corn provided many political campaign contribution/kickbacks from the Congressional mandate to include ethanol as a car fuel. The high price of oil has added to the political excuse to support corn based ethanol. Other countries do not use corn to make ethanol such as the sugar cane based Brazilian ethanol. Iowa can not grow sugar cane so the political motive to support those voters/farms and the State of Iowa comes into play even though only about 10% of Iowa's population have farm related work.
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Post by jacquelope on Jul 9, 2011 16:17:37 GMT -6
I figured that was the cause of it, but I was too lazy to research it. It's that damned Iowa primary thing. I wonder if that problem will be fixed if Iowa stops being the first big party primary state. Of course in another state it'll be something else. Another big primary state = another poorly thought-out subsidy.
But damn, corn ethanol is one of the worst decisions EVER.
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Post by graybeard on Jul 9, 2011 16:59:44 GMT -6
Farm-State Senators Agree to End Ethanol Tax Breaks in July
By Steven Sloan and Richard Rubin - Jul 7, 2011
Senator Dianne Feinstein, a California Democrat, said she has reached an agreement with two farm-state lawmakers to end ethanol subsidies July 31.
Feinstein’s agreement with Senators Amy Klobuchar, a Minnesota Democrat, and John Thune, a South Dakota Republican, would end a 45-cent-a-gallon ethanol blender tax credit and a 54-cent-a-gallon tariff on ethanol imports that are scheduled to expire Dec. 31. The lawmakers said the proposal, announced today, would reduce the federal budget deficit by $1.33 billion.
Feinstein said she hopes the agreement will be included in a deficit reduction package the Obama administration is negotiating with congressional leaders. In a letter to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the lawmakers said the agreement would fall apart if it doesn’t come up for a vote soon.
“If Congress fails to enact this proposal before it adjourns for August recess, the substantial levels of deficit reduction and investment achieved by this compromise will no longer be possible and we cannot commit our support after that point,” the three senators wrote in the letter dated today.
The Senate voted last month to curb ethanol subsidies. The measure was attached to underlying legislation that didn’t clear the chamber. Klobuchar and Thune opposed that measure, and Feinstein won their support by agreeing to use $668 million that would be saved by ending the ethanol subsidy to support other technologies.
Details of Proposal Under the agreement, $308 million would be spent to extend for three years a $1.01-a-gallon tax credit for cellulosic biofuel production. That credit is set to expire at the end of 2012. The lawmakers said extending the credit would support the development of non-corn biofuels.
Cellulosic biofuel can be produced from items other than corn, including grasses and farm waste. Poet LLC, the largest U.S. biofuels producer, along with Verenium Corp. (VRNM) and BP PLC (BP/) are investing in commercially viable cellulosic fuel.
The lawmakers also propose spending $253 million on a three-year extension of an alternative fuel infrastructure tax credit. This benefit currently expires at the end of 2011 and the credit would be reduced to 20 percent from 30 percent.
The agreement includes $107 million for a one-year extension of a small-producer tax credit. The credit currently expires at the end of 2012 and would be reduced to 7 cents a gallon from 10 cents a gallon.
Lost Support The effort to win the votes of Klobuchar and Thune might cost the support of other lawmakers who have also targeted ethanol subsidies.
Senator Tom Coburn, an Oklahoma Republican who worked with Feinstein in June on an ethanol deal, said he was unlikely to support the new agreement. Coburn has said savings from ending the ethanol subsidies should be applied to lowering the budget deficit and he has opposed using the funds to support cellulosic ethanol production.
“Private industry’s already spending billions on algae- based cellulosic ethanol, and we’re going to give them $600 million more?” he said. “It’s nuts.”
Representative Jeff Flake, an Arizona Republican, echoed those concerns. He shepherded a measure through the House in June that would have prohibited federal funding for certain ethanol pumps or storage facilities.
‘Still Too Generous’ “Frankly, the compromise bill is still too generous to the ethanol industry,” he said in an emailed statement. “I think there’s enough support in the House to end all ethanol subsidies.”
A similar amendment was defeated in the Senate on June 16.
Senator Charles Grassley, an Iowa Republican who is one of the Senate’s staunchest ethanol supporters, said the agreement should have included a “more robust investment in alternative fuel infrastructure and cellulosic ethanol.”
“The fact that this happened in a vacuum, rather than in an even-handed debate over all energy tax incentives, will always be a raw deal, especially for taxpayers and renewable fuel producers,” he said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Steven Sloan in Washington at ssloan7@bloomberg.net Richard Rubin in Washington at rrubin12@bloomberg.net
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Post by jacquelope on Jul 9, 2011 17:57:03 GMT -6
Just one question GB...
"Cellulosic biofuel can be produced from items other than corn, including grasses and farm waste."
I have an idea of what the farm waste means, but what do they mean by "grasses"?
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Post by graybeard on Jul 10, 2011 4:34:36 GMT -6
Switchgrass is noted as being good for biofuel. They also say hemp is even better.
I've never seen switchgrass.
GB
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Post by jeffolie on Aug 17, 2011 16:52:43 GMT -6
Texas ag losses forecast at record $5.2 billion By BETSY BLANEY Associated Press © 2011 The Associated Press Aug. 17, 2011, 4:23PM LUBBOCK, Texas — Texas cattle producers could take several years to fully recover from the drought blistering the state, which agriculture officials estimated Wednesday has caused a record $5.2 billion in livestock and crop losses since last fall. Officials say producers in the nation's leading cattle state have sent more animals than usual to auction, because there's nothing for them to graze on. That means fewer animals available to buy down the road, and they'll cost more because there will be fewer around. It will also take time before ranchers will have new animals to sell, said Texas AgriLife Extension Service drought specialist Travis Miller. "I really expect a three-year recovery in livestock when we start getting rain," he said. Drought has spread over much of the South this year, setting records from Louisiana to New Mexico. But the situation is especially severe in Texas, the nation's second-largest agriculture state behind California. Field surveys from November 2010 to Aug. 1 this year indicate livestock losses of $2.1 billion and crop losses of $3.1 billion in the state, extension service economist David Anderson said. By the time crops are done being harvested, it might be more. "There can still be some losses there when we see what's harvested," Anderson said. "I think it's going to get bigger." The previous record annual loss was $4.1 billion for the 2006 growing season, Texas agricultural officials said. Texas leads the nation in cotton and cattle production. But some parts of the state haven't had rain since last fall, and forecasters predict its drought will persist through at least September. Jim McAdams, a fourth-generation rancher, said demand and prices for beef are up and export markets are thriving, making it an ideal time for ranching — were there any food for animals to graze. "You would hope that this thing would turn around," he said, adding that fertilizer, fuel and other costs are pulling down ranchers' bottom lines. "We're spending more money to make the same." The crop losses include about $1.8 billion in cotton, $327 million in corn, $243 million in wheat, $63 million in sorghum and $750 million in lost hay production. The $5.2 billion estimates do not include any losses from fruit and vegetable producers, horticultural and nursery crops, or other grain and row crops. The estimate also does not include losses from wildfires in the state. Since Nov. 15, state and local firefighters have battled 18,300 fires that have burned a record 3.4 million acres. The loss estimates, Miller said, were based largely on U.S. Department of Agriculture surveys that he called "pretty conservative." Texas' corn production is estimated to be down about 30 percent and wheat yields were down from a five-year average of 30 bushels to 26 bushels per acre and crop abandonment was up, Texas agriculture officials said in a statement. On the South Plains, the world's largest contiguous cotton patch, drought, winds and triple-digit heat doomed producers who rely on rain. Cotton production overall in the region was expected to be down 48 percent from last year. Some cotton producers who irrigate were even affected and chose to stop doing so, because they might not be able to recoup the money to keep pumping along with their other costs. Since 1998, drought has cost Texas agriculture $13.1 billion, a figure that does not include the latest loss estimate. Crops and rangeland across the state have been scorched this year from a lack of rainfall and record triple-digit temperatures. Most of the state has been in the two worst stages of drought since the beginning of May, which means there has been complete or near complete crop failure or no food for grazing livestock. "We run less cattle and we've had to be very cautious and conservative in the decisions we've made," said McAdams, 61. There's also not a lot of time before winter wheat in the Panhandle and Rolling Plains is planted in about a month. Ranchers need the rain so their young animals will have something to eat, Miller said. Texas' economy will take direct hit from the losses. Agriculture accounted for $99.1 billion of the state's $1.1 trillion economy, or 8.6 percent, in 2007, the most recent year such data was available. Losses in that sector have a ripple effect that's about twice the amount of the actual agricultural loss. Consumers will eventually see the cost of the drought passed on to them, although Anderson has said it's hard to say by how much since processing, marketing, transportation and other costs also play a big role in retail prices. At this point, Texas would need more than 4.5 inches of rain in the next two months to avoid breaking the 1956 record for driest 12 consecutive months. While rain is the only thing that's going to bring back growth on grazing lands across the state, Miller said precipitation will bring its own set of consequences. " It's just bare soil out there," he said. "Rainfall will fill creeks with sediment" from pastures. www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/nation/7701561.html
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Post by jeffolie on Aug 19, 2011 12:29:25 GMT -6
US forecasters say fall to extend SW drought WASHINGTON (AP) — Federal weather forecasters say the country can expect more of the same weather for this fall, especially for drought-struck Texas and Oklahoma. And they urge coastal regions to be ready for a hurricane. The three-month weather prediction sees no relief from the record Southwest drought. It also predicts warmer than normal weather for a wide swath of the country from Maine to Arizona. Only the Southeast, Northwest and California will likely be spared. That's because forecasters a La Nina system to keep rain away. Climate Prediction Center operations chief Ed O'Lenic also says a high pressure system that has kept tropical storms away from the East has moved, making a U.S. hurricane strike more possible. The last hurricane to strike the U.S. was in 2008. news.yahoo.com/us-forecasters-fall-extend-sw-drought-171845166.html--------------------------------- Forecasters: Drought may persist for another year news.yahoo.com/forecasters-drought-may-persist-another-210555620.html
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