|
Post by jeffolie on Apr 2, 2011 13:49:47 GMT -6
Food Stamp new record. As workers drop off the unemployment benefits that are exhausted they apply for a get Food Stamps. My impression is not that employment is improving and remains unchanged for all of 2011. I agree the government distorts the employment picture which is why I prefer bart's reconstructed U-7 number which remains just under 22% for all of 2011 www.nowandfutures.com/misc.html or Shadowstats employment number. Most of the new hires are not good paying jobs with benefits. Wages of newly hired workers are low. Adjusted for high gasoline, food, clothing, paying for health insurance, contributing to pensions, etc these newly hired workers are not keeping up. Newly hired workers have no unions, no collective bargaining to provide a package of benefits so they merely have new paychecks missing benefits or decent retirement programs that leave them screwed, hence screwflation dominates. Manufacturing volumes grow but jobs do not as 'productivity gains' result in a jobless GDP gain. Public sector workers loses jobs. Labor participation remains at low, low levels around 64% and trending lower. ============================================================================== On The Stamp: Food Stamp Participation January 2011 As a logical consequence of the prolonged economic downturn it appears that participation in the federal food stamp program is continuing to rise.In fact, household participation has been climbing so steadily that it has far surpassed the last peak set as a result of the immediate fallout following hurricane Katrina. The latest data released by the Department of Agriculture shows that in January, an additional 105,470 new recipients were added to the food stamps program, an increase of 12.06% on a year-over-year basis, while household participation increased 14.52%. Individual participation as a ratio of the overall civilian non-institutional population has increased 11.18% over the same period. These results confirm that participation is continuing it's explosive climb, likely as a result of the jump in total unemployment, driving the nominal benefit costs up an lofty 11.70% on a year-over-year basis to $5.866 billion for the month. paper-money.blogspot.com/
|
|
|
Post by mdub on Apr 3, 2011 15:27:34 GMT -6
I seriously doubt that the economy added 212,000 jobs. This is likely the result of unrealistic seasonal adjustments. Seasonal adjustments are assumptions the BLS makes about job growth because it’s “that time of year”.
The seasonally unadjusted data shows a whopping increase of 916,000 jobs. This is all due to the birth/death model, which added the same amount. No sane economist can beileve this data. If it were true, companies would be hiring thousands of people and the media would be hyping it. But all we hear about are layoffs. It’s interesting that the BLS has data for mass layoffs but nothing for mass hirings.
Hate to sound like a broken record, but the BLS needs to back this data up by stating the companies that are hiring, where they are hiring, how many they are hiring, and compare it to the companies that are firing. The net result should be approximately equal to the monthly job gain/loss.
How can these job numbers be reconciled with the fact that, as you mentioned, food stamp useage is going up, local bank failures are increasing, foreclosures are up, housing prices are down, and personal bankruptcy filings are up? In a real recovery, all of these things would be moving in the opposite direction.
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Apr 3, 2011 16:08:35 GMT -6
I seriously doubt that the economy added 212,000 jobs. This is likely the result of unrealistic seasonal adjustments. Seasonal adjustments are assumptions the BLS makes about job growth because it’s “that time of year”. The seasonally unadjusted data shows a whopping increase of 916,000 jobs. This is all due to the birth/death model, which added the same amount. No sane economist can beileve this data. If it were true, companies would be hiring thousands of people and the media would be hyping it. But all we hear about are layoffs. It’s interesting that the BLS has data for mass layoffs but nothing for mass hirings. Hate to sound like a broken record, but the BLS needs to back this data up by stating the companies that are hiring, where they are hiring, how many they are hiring, and compare it to the companies that are firing. The net result should be approximately equal to the monthly job gain/loss. How can these job numbers be reconciled with the fact that, as you mentioned, food stamp useage is going up, local bank failures are increasing, foreclosures are up, housing prices are down, and personal bankruptcy filings are up? In a real recovery, all of these things would be moving in the opposite direction. bart runs a site that includes a recontructed U7 unemployment chart which this month is at 21.3% which is very similar to Shadowstats.com's number. The BLS U3 IS WRONG but the BLS publishes other numbers such as its U6 at just under 16%. BLS = Big Lying Shits
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Jul 5, 2011 10:48:21 GMT -6
Food Stamps generally avoid average Americans from starving...Food Stamps hit a new participation rate high...the financial elites currently want to avoid starvation in America. my top issue in my 2011 jeffolie predictions included food stamps and so far this prediction is true: "... Food Stamp use will make new records every period...." new record ... prediction still true =================================================== Foodstamps Are Still Going Like Hotcakes! April's SNAP (Food stamp program) data release provides another glimpse into the on-going recovery we are not having for our economically challenged folks. The Food stamp roles continue to show monthly gains to levels that have not been seen. The number of participants receiving government benefits now totals 44.65 million citizens that count on government distribution of taxpayer funds for meals. Clearly the cost doesn't stop there as these same recipients also probably qualify for health care services and child care benefits. Don't get me wrong, this lifestyle isn't so grand as the average person receives $131.00 a month in support and the average family takes in $282.00 a month in payments for food related help. It is just mind blowing to me that 14.5% of our entire nation is living on the taxpayer dole. I'm sure there are a large number of folks out there that are too independent to actually apply for these benefits even though they qualify for them. I find it compelling that our stock market continues to rip higher (kinda) while our population of non-stockholder SNAP participants continues to increase. In other words, the divide between the haves and have-nots continues to increase. Interestingly, the policies of the Federal Reserve to increase inflation to their 2% inflation target will exacerbate this problem! Those people that don't have assets that will appreciate more than inflation or at least hopefully keep pace with it will fall deeper and deeper into a hole made entirely by our own central bank! We better hope that this commodity price inflation is transitory Uncle Ben. APRIL SNAP DATA Here are a few more details of the report. USAGE FACTS 1 month increase or decrease + .14% YTD increase or decrease +1.0% YOY increase or decrease +10.4% ANY GOOD NEWS HERE? As a glass half-full kind of goat I always look for the positive and I see two things that make me optimistic. First, we see a drop in the actual total benefit cost of the program, in April the cost declined by $33 million. This is great news, and keeps us from eclipsing the $6 Billion annual cost level. This drop in pricing is only the second one in almost two years. Second, the rate of change of people coming on to the program is now almost at zero (.14%) which is the second lowest total since November 2008 when there was a drop of 1.7% of the participants in the program. These are great signs and I'm hopeful the drop is a symptom of higher employment for our nation. Perhaps all those shovel-ready projects are coming on line now? Perhaps. slopeofhope.com/ Read more: unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/in ... z1R4sVH824
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Aug 5, 2011 8:40:00 GMT -6
Food Stamps generally avoid average Americans from starving...Food Stamps hit a new participation rate high...the financial elites currently want to avoid starvation in America. my top issue in my 2011 jeffolie predictions included food stamps and so far this prediction is true: "... Food Stamp use will make new records every period...." ============================= Wed Aug 03, 2011 More Americans using food stamps than ever before: 45.8 million One thing about statistics associated with the Great Recession is the sheer number of times you can say we're experiencing the "biggest rise" or the "steepest decline" since the Great Depression or since the government has collected data for a particular economic measurement. A record number of people collecting unemployment benefits. A record number of people out of work for more than six months. A record number of home foreclosures. A record number of bank failures. A record number of people using food stamps. Indeed, the record on food stamps has been going on for well over two years now. In March 2009, that record was 31 million people. Now, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, a whopping 45.8 million people are getting them. It would be a lot more, but only about 67 percent of the eligible people actually apply. It's just one more example of the devastation wrought by the Great Recession. And how appallingly inadequate the so-called "recovery" has been. Actual paper stamps were phased out more than a decade ago and replaced with a debit-card system. And the name of the program was changed in 2008. It's now the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). But most people still call them food stamps. As the name suggests, SNAP is not meant to be the only money an individual or household spends for food. But, in fact, it makes up the bulk of such spending among the vast majority of recipients. If you're skilled enough and have the time and the access to good raw food materials, you can scrimp by on a food stamp budget. That latest count of recipients is for May, and you can be fairly certain that it's worse this month. Food stamps are, of course, one of the Great Society programs that most elected Republicans didn't want in 1964, when the program passed, and most elected Republicans now seek to cut at every opportunity. Because, you see, giving people a subsidy to buy food for themselves and their kids makes them lazy. Take a look at Rep. Paul Ryan's budget plan passed by the House in April. As some people learn too late, oratory may be what inspires people, but budgets make policy. And that budget is a manifesto for dismantling the New Deal and Great Society programs that have been on the right-wing's hit list since they were first enacted. Ryan's plan would transform SNAP into block grants to the states and let them come up with "innovative approaches to delivering aid." Those block grants would be funded at only 80 percent of the current level of SNAP spending. And that would means cuts of $127 billion between now and 2021. Not only would this mean a cut in benefits, the plan would impose a time limit on how long a recipient would be eligible for food stamps. Guess who gets screwed in this GOP vision for America's past future: In fiscal year 2009, when the last USDA survey was done, 48 percent of all SNAP participants were children. A peer-reviewed study in 2009 (Estimating the Risk of Food Stamp Use and Impoverishment During Childhood) calculated that 49 percent of all children will receive food-stamp benefits sometime before they are 20 years old. Seniors make up 8 percent of recipients. Some 93 percent of recipients have incomes below the official poverty line. Some 40 percent of recipients live in households where at least one adult has a job, the working poor. Paid on a sliding scale according to income, food stamp benefits average $133.80 a month per individual, and $283.65 a month per household. Five years ago, the Greater Philadelphia Coalition Against Hunger issued a challenge: live on a food stamp budget for a week. A year later, several elected officials, including Rep. Chris Hollen of Maryland, took up the challenge. The results? It was tough going. Because of its flexibility, the SNAP program has functioned exactly as it was designed to do during the recession and its aftermath. It is pure Keynesianism, putting money into the pockets of people who desperately need it and who spend it immediately. Almost 80 percent of SNAP benefits are redeemed within two weeks of receipt, and 97 percent are spent within a month. SNAP benefits can be redeemed at any of the more than 200,000 retail outlets in communities across the nation that are authorized to participate in the program. Because the benefits quickly reach families and communities in need, and because recipients are highly likely to spend the money quickly, economists view SNAP as one of the most effective forms of economic stimulus during an economic downturn. The USDA estimates that every dollar of food stamps gives a $1.79 boost to the economy. Independent analysts like Moody's puts the figure around $1.72. In the 2009 survey, the majority of SNAP households did not receive cash welfare benefits. Less than 10 percent of all SNAP households received Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) benefits and another 5 percent received State General Assistance (GA) benefits. About 24 percent of SNAP households received Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits and over 22 percent received Social Security. Clearly, these Americans should be targeted for shared sacrifice. www.dailykos.com/story/2011/08/0 ... 58-million ============================== Food Stamp Use Surges By Most In Years As Alabama Foodstamp Recipients Double In MayIt appears that GDP data revisions are not the only thing that the administration enjoys fudging with in order to make the Chinese ministry of Truth seem like a real ministry of truth. After last month the data for April food stamp recipients indicated the we may, just may, be reaching an inflection point in the foodstamp participation following a mere 60 thousand jump in those receiving Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), today’s just released data confirmed that the BLS and BEA may have had a hand or two when determining this latest data series. Because the just announced jump in foodstamp usage of over 1.1 million is entirely out of the blue, and as the chart below shows, is the highest single monthly jump in Foodstamp participation since mid 2009, when eligibility requirements were adjusted.....virtually the entire surge in monthly SNAP participation is due to one state alone: Alabama, which saw those living on foodstamps jump from 868K to 1.762MM. That’s 36% of Alabama’s population. Is this merely a grand rehearsal for the Jefferson County bankruptcy? Did the state see a mass surge in foodstamp use as hundreds of thousands are trying to game the system in advance of what will be an apic Chapter 9? And if yes, what does that mean for all the other states which will promptly follow in the footsteps of Jefferson County, and for US foodstamp participation? www.prisonplanet.com/food-stamp-use-surges-by-most-in-years-as-alabama-foodstamp-recipients-double-in-may.html
|
|
|
Post by unlawflcombatnt on Aug 5, 2011 10:34:34 GMT -6
Food Stamp usage increased +12.1% nationwide from May 2010 to May 2011, according to Government statistics. The only state that showed a decline was North Dakota, where Food Stamp usage declined a "whopping" 0.1%. Though Alabama showed the biggest increase, all other states had increases as well--with New Jersey & North Carolina increasing +20%, Minnesota & Delaware +19%, Maryland & Nevada +18%, Florida +17%, Idaho +16%, and New Mexico +15%. It's wrong to claim that Alabama accounted for most of the increase. The increase was broad-based and spread out over the entire country. Attachments:
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Aug 5, 2011 12:48:38 GMT -6
Food Stamp usage increased +12.1% nationwide from May 2010 to May 2011, according to Government statistics. The only state that showed a decline was North Dakota, where Food Stamp usage declined a "whopping" 0.1%. Though Alabama showed the biggest increase, all other states had increases as well-- with New Jersey & North Carolina increasing +20%, Minnesota & Delaware +19%, Maryland & Nevada +18%, Florida +17%, Idaho +16%, and New Mexico +15%.
It's wrong to claim that Alabama accounted for most of the increase. The increase was broad-based and spread out over the entire country.great catch, thank you
|
|
|
Post by mdub on Aug 8, 2011 16:58:29 GMT -6
More evidence of a recovering economy.
|
|
|
Post by waltc on Aug 8, 2011 20:58:35 GMT -6
Talk about a ticking time bomb, just wait until we default and the checks cease coming in.
You think what's happening in London is bad. Think the Rodney King riots x100 across the country.
|
|
|
Post by graybeard on Aug 8, 2011 22:26:13 GMT -6
What kind of a stigma does being on food stamps that put on people? Will it show up on a credit rating that can be viewed by prospective employers?
I've heard you can't get food stamps if you have any money at all in a 401K. This may have greater long term import than the number of people on food stamps.
GB
|
|
|
Post by waltc on Aug 9, 2011 10:55:06 GMT -6
Heck Wal-Mart gives it's new employees a sheet on how to apply for food stamps because of their low pay(thanks to being part time) and no benefits.
But now days, being unemployed is a stigma, most employers won't even look at resumes of the unemployed.
However you can't have anything in retirement accounts before applying for food stamps. You have to exhaust them first. Same thing with medi-cal.
And there is income cut-off if you get Social Security as well. I don't think there is one if they get wel-fare payments.
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Sept 2, 2011 12:53:16 GMT -6
food stamp participation continues to set new records by rising... =================================================== "...the federal food stamp program is continuing to rise. In fact, household participation has been climbing so steadily that it has far surpassed the last peak set as a result of the immediate fallout following hurricane Katrina. The latest data released by the Department of Agriculture shows that in June, 226,752 recipients were removed from the food stamps program (latest several months effected by disaster assistance), while participation continued to increased 9.47% on a year-over-year basis and household participation increased 11.76%. Individual participation as a ratio of the overall civilian non-institutional population has increased 8.65% over the same period. Participation continues to increase with nominal benefit costs climbing a lofty 9.74% on a year-over-year basis to $6.03 billion for the month. paper-money.blogspot.com/
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Oct 3, 2011 13:59:06 GMT -6
What are the odds one might predict the flip of a coin to be heads 10 times in a row? I correctly predicted this 10 times in a row with this report released in October, the 10th month. My top issue in my 2011 jeffolie predictions included food stamps and so far this prediction is true: "... Food Stamp use will make new records every period...."food stamp participation continues to set new records by rising =================================================== Read more: unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=8891#ixzz1Zkb5jibiAs a logical consequence of the prolonged economic downturn it appears that participation in the federal food stamp program is continuing to rise. In fact, household participation has been climbing so steadily that it has far surpassed the last peak set as a result of the immediate fallout following hurricane Katrina. The latest data released by the Department of Agriculture shows that in July, 161,019 recipients were added to the food stamps program (latest several months effected by disaster assistance), while participation continued to increased 8.39% on a year-over-year basis and household participation increased 10.41%. Individual participation as a ratio of the overall civilian non-institutional population has increased 7.58% over the same period. Participation continues to increase with nominal benefit costs climbing a lofty 8.68% on a year-over-year basis to $6.08 billion for the month. paper-money.blogspot.com/www.fns.usda.gov/pd/34SNAPmonthly.htm
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Nov 3, 2011 8:49:15 GMT -6
This prediction saddens me immensely. I correctly predicted this now 11 times in a row for this year. ============================ Nearly 15% of the U.S. population relied on food stamps in August, as the number of recipients hit 45.8 million. Food stamp rolls have risen 8.1% in the past year, the Department of Agriculture reported, though the pace of growth has slowed from the depths of the recession. Click image for full-size interactive map of food stamp use by state.The number of recipients in the food stamp program, formally known as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), may continue to rise in coming months as families continue to struggle with high unemployment and September’s data will likely include disaster assistance tied to the destruction and flooding caused by Hurricane Irene. Mississippi reported the largest share of its population relying on food stamps, more than 21%. One in five residents in New Mexico, Tennessee, Oregon and Louisiana also were food stamp recipients. Food stamp rolls exploded during the downturn, which began in late 2007. Even after the recession came to its official end in June 2009, families continued to tap into food assistance as unemployment remained high and those lucky enough to find jobs were often met with lower wages. States also made changes to make it easier for residents to tap into the program, such as waiving requirements that limited the value of assets food stamp recipients could own. blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/11/01/some-15-of-u-s-uses-food-stamps/?mod=e2tw
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Dec 7, 2011 14:49:02 GMT -6
This prediction saddens me immensely. I correctly predicted this now 12 times in a row for this year. ============================ The Food Stamp Recession Curve By Mike "Mish" Shedlock December 7, 2011 The latest Food Stamp data (now called SNAP) is out. Here is a chart by reader Tim Wallace showing program usage. I added highlights in yellow to mark recessions based on NBER Business Cycle Expansions. The NBER is the official arbiter of recession start and end dates. Food Stamp Participation 1969 to Present Tim writes ... The latest food stamp (SNAP) data is available for September 2011. The reporting lags by two months. We have now surged past 46 million, up to 46,268,257 to be exact. Note that food stamp usage sloped down throughout the Reagan presidency until it started back up in 1989, ahead of the recession that doomed Bush I, then continued for several more years. The pattern is similar for the recession of 2001. Food stamp usage picked up in 2001 prior to the recession, then continued for four years after the recession ended. The current recession ended in mid-2009 but usage spirals higher and higher. You can see that this "recession" is far more devastating than any in the past as the curve is more like a right angle than a curve. We have added about 20 million in the latest rise and if the trend continues (as it has so far and as it did in the past two recessions), usage will hit 51 million or so in 2013. Tim In the last three recessions, a significant change in upward slope in food stamp participation served as a leading indicator of the upcoming recession. Only the second 80's recession failed to meet that pattern. advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Shedlock-111207-Food-Stamp-Recession-Curve.php
|
|
|
Post by unlawflcombatnt on Dec 7, 2011 17:13:27 GMT -6
I seriously doubt that the economy added 212,000 jobs. This is likely the result of unrealistic seasonal adjustments. Seasonal adjustments are assumptions the BLS makes about job growth because it’s “that time of year”. Another telling part in all of these recurrent "positive" job reports is that real wages continue to fall. This defies the basic economic principle that demand increases price--in this case the price of labor. If there really was a lot of new hiring, one would expect wages to rise. They're not. And it seems like the additional hiring that always takes place around Christmas was not considered--or at least not emphasized. Furthermore, I'd be willing to wager that that the current numbers will be revised downward on future reports, and that the real wage decline will also be revised to an even larger decline.
|
|
|
Post by unlawflcombatnt on Dec 7, 2011 23:39:13 GMT -6
This prediction saddens me immensely. I correctly predicted this now 12 times in a row for this year. ============================ The Food Stamp Recession Curve By Mike "Mish" Shedlock December 7, 2011 The latest Food Stamp data (now called SNAP) is out. Here is a chart by reader Tim Wallace showing program usage. The chart reveals a truly incredible increase and longer term trend. Food stamp users have increased by over 28 million since 2000, from less than 18 million to over 46 million today. That's roughly the same as our population increase since 2000.
|
|
|
Post by unlawflcombatnt on Dec 8, 2011 0:23:50 GMT -6
This prediction saddens me immensely. I correctly predicted this now 12 times in a row for this year. ============================ The Food Stamp Recession Curve By Mike "Mish" Shedlock December 7, 2011 The latest Food Stamp data (now called SNAP) is out. Here is a chart by reader Tim Wallace showing program usage. The chart reveals a truly incredible increase and longer term trend. Food stamp users have increased by over 28 million since 2000, from less than 18 million to over 46 million today. That's roughly the same as our population increase since 2000. Also noteworthy is that the number NEVER gone down on a sustained basis, at any time after 2000. To the contrary, it has risen every year since--especially during the alleged "recovery" after 2008. There has been no recovery--except, perhaps for the top 0.1%.
|
|
|
Post by jeffolie on Feb 6, 2012 12:53:27 GMT -6
bart wrote: "... GDP deflator was .39% annualized, 2% annual change rate... in other words, the economy shrank on an apples to apples ('real') basis, even before most inventory adjustments, CPI w/o lies corrections etc. ... " As the economy shrank (see bart's quote above), more average Americans dropped out of earning a living by retiring, going on disability, and those on Food Stamps continued to increase. In my original post, I again tried to point to the 2 separate groups of consumers that make the largest groups of buyers: 1. the upper incomes buyers although small in numbers about equals all the buying, consuming in dollar terms as the 2. less than upper income buyers. The upper income consumers buy the new SUVs, the growing Food Stamp population in dollar terms (see below) spend on necessities and escapist drugs & alcohol until they run short of money before the next public assistance comes leaving Walmarts to schedule cashiers for the 1st 4 hours after midnight when the public assistance money arrives and minimum cashiers in the run out of money time before the public assistance arrives each month. ========================================================= Monday, February 06, 2012 On The Stamp: Food Stamp Participation November 2011 As a logical consequence of the prolonged economic downturn it appears that participation in the federal food stamp program is continuing to rise. In fact, household participation has been climbing so steadily that it has far surpassed the last peak (which looks like a minor blip by comparison) set as a result of the immediate fallout following hurricane Katrina. The latest data released by the Department of Agriculture shows that in November, 94,086 recipients were removed from the food stamps program with the current total still increasing 5.82% on a year-over-year basis while household participation increased 7.46%. Individual participation as a ratio of the overall civilian non-institutional population has increased 5.06% over the same period. Participation continues to increase with nominal benefit costs climbing a lofty 6.86% on a year-over-year basis to $6.20 billion for the month. paper-money.blogspot.com/ Read more: unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=10205&page=1#ixzz1ld4tCDQA
|
|
|
Post by graybeard on Feb 6, 2012 18:29:34 GMT -6
Robert Reich is finally talking about total EMployed and how weak it is. He must have picked it up from ULC. www.RobertReich.com
|
|
|
Post by unlawflcombatnt on Feb 6, 2012 23:48:53 GMT -6
Robert Reich is finally talking about total EMployed and how weak it is. He must have picked it up from ULC. www.RobertReich.comLOL. Now if only Reich would pick up the cause of either Tariffs, import inspections, or both.
|
|
|
Post by graybeard on Feb 7, 2012 7:16:10 GMT -6
Maybe my repeated pleas asking him to promote 100% inspection of imports - paid by the importers - was what caused him to turn off his email.
|
|
|
Post by graybeard on Feb 8, 2012 13:25:15 GMT -6
I heard on NPR that the govt wants to remove candy and soda pop from the list of approved food stamp items. You know who's screaming, of course.
Good ol' Romney, "the poor are well taken care of" cites obesity as proof that food stamps are excessive. Well, duh, high sugar in low priced foods causes obesity.
I believe sugar is used as a substitute for chemicals as a preservative. I find a lot of breads and cereals at Trader Joe's with about 14% sugar by weight. Also, think sugar-cured ham, which has been around since long before refrigeration.
Rather than trying to single out candies and pop for exclusion from food stamps, I would like to see any food with over 15% sugar by weight be prohibited from purchase with food stamps. I would also like to see it clearly labeled: HIGH SUGAR.
GB
|
|