Post by jeffolie on May 7, 2011 19:02:29 GMT -6
Even if you were to trust the government's numbers (I do not) then:
The 2 recent employment numbers for 'household' vs 'employer' rates seem exceptionally far apart to the point of being irreconcilable. The employers show moderate jobs growth but the household survey shows moderately increasing unemployment.
Friday: creating jobs...fictional jobs...not real jobs
In the real world a new record of creation: As Food Stamp Recipients Hit New Record, 400 Americans Account For 10% Of Capital Gains 05/03/2011
www.zerohedge.com/article/food-stamp-recipients-hit-new-record-400-americans-account-10-capital-gains?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29
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"... a phony Employment report for you – I mean if we TRUSTED our government, then I wouldn’t need to, but yet here we are....The population of the United States is growing at about 1% per year. There are 310 million people, that means the population will grow by 3.1 million this year, or about 258,000 per month! About 60% of the population works, so that means that we need to create about 155,000 jobs per month just to accommodate that growth in the population. So, if we take the BLS at face value then we are net positive for April by about 89,000 jobs.
So, why did the rate from the Employment Survey go up?
Because in fact the number of people in the Household Survey who are UNemployed ROSE by 205,000. Yet they spin that from there magically into a jobs created number with the Establishment Survey manipulations.
The truth is that in the past year the labor force has shrunk by about a million and the participation rate has shrunk by about 3 million.
... charts showing the precipitous decline in both the Participation Rate, and in the Employment Population Ratio:
...And if we’re truly adding jobs, then how come the Average Duration of those unemployed is still climbing straight up into absurd levels never before seen?
It’s because we aren’t really adding ANY jobs, that’s why.
The now famous “Birth/Death” model was used to add 175,000 phantom jobs in April – many of which likely do not exist in reality. And the trend on the part of the BLS is clear – bigger numbers month after month which means more and more phony jobs added:
When you look at the year over year change, the BLS has created 173,000 more jobs this year with that model than they did last year for just the first four months. These distortions really add up over time, and while we don’t know how many actually were created, you only have to subtract out about half of this number before we’re back into real negative job creation territory.
And of the jobs “created,” we know that 62,000 of them were created at McDonalds. Would you like fries with that? Of course this is nothing but a publicity stunt on their part, this is typical of their spring hiring pattern. All corporate spin, all the time – and yes, they got a mention on my site, way to go marketing department! Is it just me or are you craving a greasy cheeseburger?
Turning to the Alternate table, we see that indeed they are counting more people as looking for work and that is a large part of why the Rate moved from 8.8% to 9.0%. Whether that’s reality or not is another matter entirely, but that’s part of what’s happening. You can see that unadjusted U-6 fell from 16.2 to 15.5%, but that with seasonal adjusting it ROSE from 15.7 to 15.9%:
My take is that overall we are still not even close to producing a single job – we are in fact still losing jobs – still. And the jobs we’re losing are the good jobs, while the jobs being created lack living wages, benefits, and real retirements.
And the BLS got to steal about two more hours of my life’s energy force, and distracted all of us from the point which is that debt saturation caused by the central banks has turned us all into debt money slaves.
economicedge.blogspot.com/
The 2 recent employment numbers for 'household' vs 'employer' rates seem exceptionally far apart to the point of being irreconcilable. The employers show moderate jobs growth but the household survey shows moderately increasing unemployment.
Friday: creating jobs...fictional jobs...not real jobs
In the real world a new record of creation: As Food Stamp Recipients Hit New Record, 400 Americans Account For 10% Of Capital Gains 05/03/2011
www.zerohedge.com/article/food-stamp-recipients-hit-new-record-400-americans-account-10-capital-gains?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29
================================================================
"... a phony Employment report for you – I mean if we TRUSTED our government, then I wouldn’t need to, but yet here we are....The population of the United States is growing at about 1% per year. There are 310 million people, that means the population will grow by 3.1 million this year, or about 258,000 per month! About 60% of the population works, so that means that we need to create about 155,000 jobs per month just to accommodate that growth in the population. So, if we take the BLS at face value then we are net positive for April by about 89,000 jobs.
So, why did the rate from the Employment Survey go up?
Because in fact the number of people in the Household Survey who are UNemployed ROSE by 205,000. Yet they spin that from there magically into a jobs created number with the Establishment Survey manipulations.
The truth is that in the past year the labor force has shrunk by about a million and the participation rate has shrunk by about 3 million.
... charts showing the precipitous decline in both the Participation Rate, and in the Employment Population Ratio:
...And if we’re truly adding jobs, then how come the Average Duration of those unemployed is still climbing straight up into absurd levels never before seen?
It’s because we aren’t really adding ANY jobs, that’s why.
The now famous “Birth/Death” model was used to add 175,000 phantom jobs in April – many of which likely do not exist in reality. And the trend on the part of the BLS is clear – bigger numbers month after month which means more and more phony jobs added:
When you look at the year over year change, the BLS has created 173,000 more jobs this year with that model than they did last year for just the first four months. These distortions really add up over time, and while we don’t know how many actually were created, you only have to subtract out about half of this number before we’re back into real negative job creation territory.
And of the jobs “created,” we know that 62,000 of them were created at McDonalds. Would you like fries with that? Of course this is nothing but a publicity stunt on their part, this is typical of their spring hiring pattern. All corporate spin, all the time – and yes, they got a mention on my site, way to go marketing department! Is it just me or are you craving a greasy cheeseburger?
Turning to the Alternate table, we see that indeed they are counting more people as looking for work and that is a large part of why the Rate moved from 8.8% to 9.0%. Whether that’s reality or not is another matter entirely, but that’s part of what’s happening. You can see that unadjusted U-6 fell from 16.2 to 15.5%, but that with seasonal adjusting it ROSE from 15.7 to 15.9%:
My take is that overall we are still not even close to producing a single job – we are in fact still losing jobs – still. And the jobs we’re losing are the good jobs, while the jobs being created lack living wages, benefits, and real retirements.
And the BLS got to steal about two more hours of my life’s energy force, and distracted all of us from the point which is that debt saturation caused by the central banks has turned us all into debt money slaves.
economicedge.blogspot.com/