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Post by jeffolie on May 17, 2011 17:51:37 GMT -6
Economic Stall The economy is stalling...evidence mounts portions no longer growing The latest industrial production, capacity utilization, car production will remain significantly lower for the rest of year (blame Japan's energy, earthquake, nuke energy issues), Wal-Mart same store sales, horrible weather impacts, and upper income spending...all lead me to believe that a general economic stall is now happening. Upper income, the upper 20% of income earners stopped buying at Sotheby's and its stock fell significantly in the last 6 weeks ( www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BID:US ) . Why care...the upper 20% of income earners spend 3 times the average on important new purchases such as cars, houses, furniture, clothes, Apple products, etc. This group thrived and spent money with higher stocks and investments but I think they decreased significantly their buying. Why care...tax collections from sales taxes, property taxes etc are likely to stall. QE2+++ is the morphing of POMO Treasuries buying now changed into only rolling over 'maturing Treasuries' in the FED's portfolio...this slows slightly the cash flow and government funding compared to the outright buying of $120B per month. Imports are growing ... decreasing the GDP government released number. While US Manufacturing is stalling, imports expanded making the 'economic numbers' likely to not look good or at least they likely will look 'less good'...depending on how the government lies. Oil remains near $100...subtract this high energy cost from the bottom line and profits eventually will be adjusted over the coming quarters to show profit margins declined. Gasoline prices declined an insignificant few pennies while oil declined 15%, so profit margins for most businesses will be reduced from transportation and petroleum feed stock costs remaining at high prices.
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Post by jeffolie on May 18, 2011 8:29:49 GMT -6
The below piece today also sees an economic stall. It jumps to the conclussion of more QE. I believe the FED will come to the rescue but not until after the budget ceiling issue is resolved which for now appears to be on tract for an early August deadline. Will the rescue be called QE...I doubt the FED will use the words Quantitative Easing to label the rescue. The FED will be buying Treasuries because China, Japan, India, Brazil, Europe are buying less...so the Treasury buyer of last resort will be the FED. Plus, low or near zero short term interest rates will be required. There may be a short scare when real market Treasuries rate happen if the FED is not ahead of the curve and if the FED does not immediately buy Treasuries when they are issued. The debt ceiling issue may stop the sales of some or all Treasuries, I am not sure this suspension of Treasuries sales will happen. ======================================= Tuesday, May 17, 2011 QE3, QE4, QE5… QE3 is in the offing… Consensus expectations just seems to demand it as a generation of gambling speculators, swindlers, government policy junkies and others with short attention spans and a psychopathic indifference for the soundness of the financial system panic at the least sign of slowdown and line up for another dose of the Feds easy money. Looking at some of the latest trends, a slowdown of sorts would not be so surprising. The economy is still being seriously impacted by the evolving housing decline, unemployment remains at 9%, oil prices are near $100 a barrel with gasoline prices reflecting that fact, the Federal Government is toying with the debt ceiling, China is likely overheating as it inches ever closer to parabolic residential real estate prices and likely an ugly crash, other notable leading emerging markets like India and the Russian Federation are continuing to slow, Greece and other European countries are moving closer to debt restructuring… the list of negative externalities runs long yet they all carry the telltale ring of the Great Recession about them. This is the point at which one, having been schooled by the Fed over many years, must begin to ask the question “What will the Feds response be?”… as if a response by the Federal Reserve is nearly a reflexive action to a consensus expectation of looming slowdown. The answer to that question should not require such a stretch of imagination… the simple short answer is QE3… no more, no less. Why would the Fed stop now? Should a slowdown materialize, it will ultimately been seen as an offspring of the Great Recession and treated as such. Recognize that during last month’s historic Fed press conference, “Helicopter” Bernanke made no quibble of the fact that the Fed will continue the principle reinvestment function that they have been carrying out ever since they acquired such a sizable bounty of mortgage securities, a clear sign that pumping liquidity is not only the response de jure but the de facto response. Like a pair of dysfunctional sweethearts, the Fed knows no different course of action then easing and the consensus expects it, so easing it will be. But as we move further and further from the point where the Feds intervention is viewed as “pump priming” and nearer a more accurate perception of it as the “pump”, one has to wonder when consensus will begin to lose faith and worry that this scheme has no merit. Only then will we ultimately realize the true consequence of the years of Fed actions. paper-money.blogspot.com/
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Post by jeffolie on May 19, 2011 9:42:41 GMT -6
Economic Stall or Slowdown? Both phrases sound about the same to me. This group's predictions are controversal but often sited. ===================================== ECRI Says Global Slowdown Will Hit This Summer Inquiring minds are watching a video with Lakshman Achuthan at the ECRI who says "Global Slowdown to Hit by Summer, Even for U.S." The world is headed for an economic slowdown, according to the Economic Cycle Research Institute's (ECRI) Long Leading Index of global industrial growth. "It is not country specific, but imagine if you could add up all the activity in factories around the world and see if it was accelerating or decelerating, that is what this indicator is focused on," says Lakshman Achuthan founder and managing director of the research center. "And it has been telling us very clearly, unambiguously, that we have a peak in global industrial growth this summer." I commend Achuthan for a good interview and for insisting last year that a double-dip recession was not in the cards. Many of you know that I got into a spat with the ECRI a while back. The issue was not that on the merits of the ECRI's indicators, but rather their claim the indicators never missed a recession call and never predicted a false recession. Inquiring minds may wish to consider ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan Still Blowing Smoke However, the ECRI and I now see things alike. On Monday May 16 I wrote Huge Cracks in Global Recovery Thesis; Industrial Production Unexpectedly Drops in Germany, France; UK Weaker than Expected. That is consistent with what Achuthan said to Aaron Task yesterday in that Tech Ticker interview. Mike "Mish" Shedlock globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/05/ecri-says-global-slowdown-will-hit-this.html
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Post by jeffolie on May 19, 2011 11:23:46 GMT -6
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Post by jeffolie on May 19, 2011 11:29:35 GMT -6
Another Economic Stall report...Philadelphia Fed’s factories index drops ==================================== May 19, 2011 WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Business activity among manufacturers in the Philadelphia area grew in May but at the slowest pace in eight months, according to a closely followed survey. The Federal Reserve of Philadelphia on Thursday said its index of current activity sank to 3.9 in May from 18.5 in April, the lowest reading since October. Just two months ago, the index reached 43.4, the highest level since January 1984. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected the gauge to rise to 20.1 in May. www.marketwatch.com/story/philadelphia-fed-business-index-drops-again-2011-05-19
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Post by jeffolie on May 19, 2011 11:34:14 GMT -6
...an economic stall. It jumps to the conclussion of more QE. I believe the FED will come to the rescue but not until after the budget ceiling issue is resolved which for now appears to be on tract for an early August deadline. Will the rescue be called QE...I doubt the FED will use the words Quantitative Easing to label the rescue. The FED will be buying Treasuries because China, Japan, India, Brazil, Europe are buying less...so the Treasury buyer of last resort will be the FED. Plus, low or near zero short term interest rates will be required. There may be a short scare when real market Treasuries rate happen if the FED is not ahead of the curve and if the FED does not immediately buy Treasuries when they are issued. The debt ceiling issue may stop the sales of some or all Treasuries, I am not sure this suspension of Treasuries sales will happen.
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on May 19, 2011 21:38:19 GMT -6
Economic Stall.... Imports are growing ... decreasing the GDP government released number. While US Manufacturing is stalling, imports expanded making the 'economic numbers' likely to not look good or at least they likely will look 'less good'...depending on how the government lies. The sad thing is that imports are completely under the control of the Government. And any other elected government in human history--including the US Government of 100 years ago--would have blocked almost all imports with either Tariffs or outright embargoes. It's disgusting that the economic mythology of the advantages of free trade has been regurgitated ad nauseum to rationalize low US Tariffs--even when the countries we import from do not reciprocate. The mythology goes so deep that even when the damaging effects are actively and blatantly killing our economy, the Government and it's shills in the Corporate punditocracy still advocate even more free trade. They're not espousing what they actually believe. They're espousing what's in the best interests of their multinational free-traitor advertisers and sponsors.
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Post by blueneck on May 20, 2011 10:52:08 GMT -6
The tariff not only as a way to limit the damaging effects of too much imports, but also as a revenue stream to replace lost tax base and reduce the deficit
I never get why the anti-tax crowd doesn't sieze on the tariff as a way to reduce the tax burden on business and individuals. Afterall, prior to the free marketeer era, tariffs were where the govt derived most of its revenue.
Nor why the alledgedly pro-constitutionalist tea baggers aren't up in arms over why congress isn't fulfilling its constitutional responsibility under Section III article 8 to regulate trade between nations
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Post by jeffolie on May 20, 2011 12:20:26 GMT -6
The upper 20% of income earners are cutting back on the discretionary, expensive spending a little but enough to stall our 'consumer' driven economy...cars, Apple products, etc. The current stall looks like consumers are tapped out with average Americans forced to spend more on gas, food, health, local taxes/fees: screwflation is draining sales of other discretionary items. see: "...Wal-Mart Frets as U.S. Shoppers Buy Food and Little Else May 17, 2011 www.nytimes.com/2011/05/18/business/18shop.htmlThe economic stall is not surprising...I predicted political and economic stall this year, 2011 in my jeffolie 2011 predictions as GDP would grow ... "...US ECONOMY: ‘GDP’ will rise because of government lying and misrepresenting economic numbers. ‘average American family’ economics will decline from increased joblessness, screwflation, resulting in a lower standard of living for the ‘average American family’. Read more: unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=8394#ixzz1MuzOcvtOWalMart's same store sales are declining and WalMart's PR is that its typical American clients are tapped out by rising gas, food, rent. These are the 80% of income earners...not the upper 20% who shop at Nordstom's, etc. I predicted political and economic stall in 2008 for the years of 2011 and 2012 and labelled it 'Gridlock'. Trade, fiscal living beyond our means, giving money and immunity to financial elites/multinational corporations: all these fundamental problems are draining wealth/income while debt/deficits dig America's hole deeper and create political (inequality abounds politically and wealth/income in the West) that looks like 'austerity' or poor and declining living standards...this will eventually fail just like Greece, Spain, Ireland etc in America.
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Post by jeffolie on May 22, 2011 10:28:33 GMT -6
Another blog concluded this is a slowdown, I say it is an economic stall: ======================================== Saturday, May 21, 2011 Weekly Indicators: the slowdown confirmed edition - by New deal democrat This past week brought a spate of poor numbers, highlighted by the decline of -0.3 in the April LEI, only the second decline in 2 years. Housing permits and starts declined, as did existing home sales. Industrial production and capacity utilization also were flat or declined. The Empire State and Philly regional manufacturing reports were also substantially weaker (although both still showed expansion). Turning to the high-frequency weekly indicators: Oil finished above $99 a barrel on Friday. It still remains slightly above 4% of GDP. Gas at the pump leveled off for the third week at $3.96 a gallon. Gasoline usage at 9048 M gallons was 0.5% lower than last year's 9092. This YoY comparison has been negative for the last ten weeks in a row, but this week was relatively speaking the best comparison in close to two months. The BLS reported that Initial jobless claims last week were 409,000. The four week average is now 439, 000. This is the highest 4 week average in half a year, although I expect it to abate in two weeks when the 478,000 weekly number rotates out of the average. Railfax was up 3.6% YoY. The Baseline traffic 4 week moving average is up 1.07% from a year ago. Cyclical traffic is up 3.55%. Intermodal traffic (a proxy for imports and exports) is 5.11% compared with a year ago. On a 4 week moving average basis, YoY traffic percentage growth is at its low ebb for the last year. On a weekly basis, carloads are up 16,200 or up 2.2%, almost all of it intermodal traffic. The Mortgage Bankers' Association reported a decrease of 3.2% in seasonally adjusted mortgage applications last week. It was only 1.7% lower than this week last year. Refinancing increased 13.2%, reflecting a decline in mortgage rates. The purchase series has been generally flat for close to one full year - compared with its previous relentless decline, a good thing. This graph from Mortgage News Daily shows that for the first time since the housing bubble burst, we may start to see positive YoY comparisons: The American Staffing Association Index rose to 94, its second straight week of advancing after 12 weeks at the 90-92 levels. This advance is much like 2007 - slow growth, but not stalled. The ICSC reported that same store sales for the week of May 14 increased 3.2% YoY, but declined -2.0% week over week. Shoppertrak reported a 8.3% YoY increase for the week ending May 14, and a WoW decrease of 6.8%, reversing last week's pre Mother's day gain. Weekly retail sales numbers have been a bright spot all year, generally showing the consumer not rolling over due to gas prices. Weekly BAA commercial bond rates increased .01% to 5.83%. This yields of 10 year treasury bond, to the contrary, decreased 0.4% to 3.20%. There is a tinge of fear of deflation in the treasuries, and the slight increase in commercial rates is the first hint of any relative distress in the corporate market. Adjusting +1.07% due to the 2011 tax compromise, the Daily Treasury Statement showed that for the first 14 days of May 2011, $98.2 B was collected vs. $95.1 B a year ago, for an increase of $3.1 B YoY. For the last 20 days, $130.4 B was collected vs. $127.0 B a year ago, for an increase of $3.4 B, or 2.7%. Use this series with extra caution because the adjustment for the withholding tax compromise is only a best guess, and may be significantly incorrect. Nevertheless the YoY gains have been very tepid in the last month. M1 was down 0.1% w/w, up 1.7% M/M, and up 12.2% YoY, so Real M1 is up 9.1%. M2 was down 0.1% w/w, up 0.7% M/M and up 5.0% YoY, so Real M2 is up 1.9%. Although Real M1 is still strongly in the "green zone" where it has been since before the end of the "great recession," Real M2 has faded back into the "yellow zone" below 2.5%. This week's data continued to show YoY weakness in most data. The slowdown is here. The price of Oil and the amount of fiscal fiscal constriction will determine the severity and length of the weakness. bonddad.blogspot.com/
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Post by mdub on May 22, 2011 23:09:05 GMT -6
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Post by jeffolie on May 23, 2011 8:26:09 GMT -6
The Stronger, recovering Dollar Index is a symptom of the weak political/economic problems in Europe as Spain's regional elections drive out incumbents. The 'politics of the backlash' gets its driving force in Europe and America from jobs....tariffs are not yet popular among the protesting voters as a way to get back jobs so I doubt the underlying problem of jobs will be solved. "...Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to –0.45 in April from +0.32 in March. April marked the lowest reading of the index since August 2010...." ====================== The Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Weakened in April May 23, 2011 Monthly Update Here's the lead from today's The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) release for April. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, declined to -0.12 in April from +0.08 in March, turning negative for the first time since December 2010. April's CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was somewhat below its historical trend. With regard to inflation, the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year. Production-related indicators made a contribution of -0.16 to the index in April, down sharply from +0.31 in March. Manufacturing production decreased 0.4 percent in April after rising for nine consecutive months, and manufacturing capacity utilization declined to 74.4 percent in April from 74.8 percent in March. Parts shortages that resulted from the earthquakes in Japan contributed to a decline in motor vehicle and parts production. [Download News Release] The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly indicator designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. It is a composite of 85 monthly indicators as explained in this background PDF file on the Chicago Fed's website. The first chart below is based on the complete CFNAI historical series dating from March 1967. The red dots show the indicator itself, which is quite noisy, and the 3-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3), which is more useful as an indicator of coincident economic activity. I've also highlighted official recessions. For a clearer look at the recent behavior of the index, here is a closeup view since 2007. The next chart highlights the -0.7 level. The Chicago Fed explains: "When the CFNAI-MA3 value moves below -0.70 following a period of economic expansion, there is an increasing likelihood that a recession has begun. Conversely, when the CFNAI-MA3 value moves above -0.70 following a period of economic contraction, there is an increasing likelihood that a recession has ended." With the exception of the 1973-75 recession, the -0.7 level has coincided fairly closely with recession boundaries. The 1973-75 event was perhaps an outlier because of the rapid rise of inflation following the 1973 Oil Embargo. Otherwise a cross below the -0.7 level has synchronized within a month or two of a recession start. A cross above the level has lagged recession ends by 2-4 months. The next chart includes an overlay of GDP, which reinforces the accuracy of the CFNAI as an indicator of coincident economic activity. Here's a chart of the CFNAI without the MA3 overlay — for the purpose of highlighting the high inter-month volatility. Consider: the index has ranged from a high 2.57 to a low of -4.78 with a average monthly change of 0.59. That's 8% of the entire index range! Further underscoring the volatility is the roller-coaster list of CFNAI headlines over the past several months. Increased Sharply (January 2010) Slowed (February 2010) Improved (March 2010) Continued to Improve (April 2010) Continued to Expand (May 2010) Declined (June 2010) Rebounded (July 2010) Weakened (August 2010) Slowed Further (September 2010) Picked Up (October 2010) Slowed (November 2010) Improved (December 2010) Slower (January 2011) Near Average (February 2011) Improved (March 2011) Weakened (April 2011) As monthly chart depicts and the headline verbs reinforce, it's unwise to read very much in the data for any specific month. The 3-month moving average is the number to watch. The Long-Term Economic Trend In the final chart I've let Excel draw a linear regression through the CFNAI data series. The slope confirms the casual impression of the previous charts that National Activity, as a function of the 85 indicators in the index, has been declining since its inception in the late 1960s, a trend that roughly coincides with the transition from manufacturing to a post-industrial economy in the information age. For an additional perspective on long-term economic trends, see my Economic Growth in the U.S. Since 1930. The next Chicago Fed Activity Index release is scheduled for June 23, 2011. dshort.com/articles/Chicago-Fed-National-Activity-Index.html==================================== Monday, May 23, 2011 Chicago Fed: Economic activity weakened in April From the Chicago Fed: Index shows economic activity weakened in April Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to –0.45 in April from +0.32 in March. April marked the lowest reading of the index since August 2010. www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/chicago-fed-economic-activity-weakened.html==================================== ...Economic Slowdown List Economic Slowdown in the US: Non-Manufacturing ISM Plunges Below Prediction of All 73 Economists, New Orders CollapseEconomic Slowdown in Europe: Huge Cracks in Global Recovery Thesis; Industrial Production Unexpectedly Drops in Germany, France; UK Weaker than Expected. Economic Bust in Australia: Near-Record Corporate Bankruptcies, Employment Drops Unexpectedly; Rise in Bad Home Loans; Record Low Property Transactions Add China to the global slowdown list. ... Bloomberg reports Chinese Manufacturing Index Drops to Lowest Level in 10 Months globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/05/china-manufacturing-slows-euro-drops-on.html
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Post by fredorbob on May 23, 2011 20:16:21 GMT -6
TAA suppose to be some sort of retraining thing?
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Post by fredorbob on May 23, 2011 20:17:24 GMT -6
I never get why the anti-tax crowd doesn't sieze on the tariff as a way to reduce the tax burden on business and individuals. Because they are traitors, free traitors. I'm no longer voting.
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Post by mdub on May 24, 2011 16:37:42 GMT -6
From the article - TAA stands for Trade Adjustment Assistance.
"The TAA program provides workers with reemployment assistance and training, income support and job search and relocation allowances. The program also provides unemployment benefits for 156 weeks rather than the more typical 99 weeks."
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Post by fredorbob on May 24, 2011 17:19:23 GMT -6
From the article - TAA stands for Trade Adjustment Assistance. "The TAA program provides workers with reemployment assistance and training, income support and job search and relocation allowances. The program also provides unemployment benefits for 156 weeks rather than the more typical 99 weeks." I had this one truck job based in Denver. It was a regional company, mostly operating in a big triangle with Denver at the center, to Farmington, NM, Albequerqe, NM (I'll never learn how to spell that), Dallas FT Worth. I had a co-driver this time. I came into work, about 6 PM, get hooked up and I liked to start driving while my co-driver slept, I'd drive in the middle of the night (no traffic) then at around 6 AM my co-driver would take over. Well I started driving from Denver to Albequerque (I'll never learn how to spell that), and about 3 hours into the trip I started getting headaches, 5 hours into the trip almost to Albequerque I was about to collapse. I had the warp-9 stomach flu. So I get to Albequerque and put myself into a Motel at 3 AM in the morning. About 40 hours later I call up the boss and say I'm ready to go, and he tells me I'm fired. What he wanted me to do was let me bounce around in the sleeper barfing my guts out while my co-driver illegally used my logbook hours. I knew this, he knew this, my co-driver knew this. But oh well. Where was my re-employment assistance program? I took 4 months vacation off after that (what I call unemployment), and only took me a couple hours to find another job when I came off of vacation, but that's not the point. In my 20's I got into trucking because there was this thing called DEMAND for drivers, such a high demand that when I read up on it in the newspaper there was this keyword I saw "recruiters" for trucking companies. Recruiting is a term companies or military uses when they are desperate for employees. So I provided the SUPPLY for the DEMAND, and I knew I would never have any difficulty finding a job with high DEMAND and I was correct. Anyone who has faith in the theory of SUPPLY and DEMAND would never throw money down the toilet into a "Trade Adjustment Assistance" government program.
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Post by judes on May 24, 2011 19:56:31 GMT -6
TAA was supposed to be a program to help retrain people who lost their jobs due to outsourcing due to our destructive trade policies. The training / college programs had to meet certain requirements, like a growth industry, HA. Several employees at my company became eligible for this when they were let go recently. This assistance has now expired apparently with the corrupt congress now holding it out as a carrot to say they will only pass Obamas new free trade deals with Panama, columbia, korea etc if the Republican members will once again extend this TAA assistance, which they apparently refused to extend recently. So on one hand they really want to pass these free trade deals that they already know will kill American jobs, but justify it by saying it's ok we will extend the TAA and make it all better, grrrrrr. So Fredorbob you probably would have become eligible for this assistance if you lost your truck driving job when they open up the US roads to Mexican truckers as they are pushing to do, that is until it was allowed to expire. When googling the current status of the TAA program (which I was hoping to use myself when my job is finally outsourced) I came across this ass.... lincicome.blogspot.com/2011/05/supporters-of-taa-expansion-need-to.htmlWhat the hell is this guy smoking!? Right, an Indian company outsourced 4000 jobs to the US! From experience I can almost guarantee that that is for training and or on site work at firms who hire out these outsourced services in the first place!! And whoopee to the big number of jobs, it is a small friggin dent in the massive number of jobs outsourced! I really get so angry when I read this kind of plutocratic clap trap that I have to force myself to take a break from it, it is so infuriating, thus my absence from here.
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Post by jeffolie on May 25, 2011 9:44:07 GMT -6
"....U.S. orders for durable goods fell sharply in April, mainly because of lower demand for aircraft and autos, the government reported Wednesday....It was the biggest decline since October...." Another piece of evidence that the economy stalled. =========================== U.S. orders for durable goods fell sharply in April, mainly because of lower demand for aircraft and autos, the government reported Wednesday. The Commerce Department said new orders for U.S.-made products designed to last three years or more, such as autos or appliances, dropped 3.6% last month. It was the biggest decline since October. Orders fell 1.5% in April after factoring out the volatile transportation sector, marking the third decline in fourth months. Transportation orders slumped 9.5%. Boeing Co. reported far fewer bookings for aircraft in April compared to March, while the auto business was hurt by a disruption in supplies related to Japan’s March 11 earthquake. Orders also have a pattern of declining in the first month of a new quarter. The decline in April, for example, follows an upwardly revised increase of 4.4% in March. Still, several regional surveys show that manufacturing growth appears to have tapered recently. Using a rolling average to smooth out seasonal swings and other special factors, orders have fallen an average of 0.3% in the past three months, compared to a 2.4% increase in the March-to-January period. Most economists blame the aftereffects of the Japanese earthquake and say supply-chain disruptions should fade. What’s more, global demand for aircraft remains strong. www.marketwatch.com/story/orders-for-durable-goods-fall-36-in-april-2011-05-25
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Post by jeffolie on May 25, 2011 11:08:08 GMT -6
New Evidence That The Economy Is Slowing Down May 25, 2011 The data has continued to come in weak, missing economic forecasts left and right. Just in the last few days we've gotten more of it, so we've updated the original list. April Durable Goods was a disaster On May 24, the Richmond Fed was a total debacle 10-year yields have been diving againMore and more it looks like the Chinese economy is coming off the rails Europe is breaking apart. Enough said There. The UK economy is practically double dipping. Case Shiller Is Showing The Housing Double Dip Getting Worse Small Business Confidence Is Suddenly Turning Lower Las Vegas gaming revenue has suddenly turned south again. Oil prices have pushed the economy to the breaking point Austerity warnings from the UK In London, where fiscal tightening is further along than here, it's having a clear effect on consumer spending. That's coming to the US, too. Q1 GDP was very mediocre. Initial jobless claims are clearly heading higher over the past few weeks Copper futures, a great tell on the economy, are heading south Shanghai stocks are falling as well Big companies like Procter & Gamble are seeing their earnings get hit due to higher commoditiesImage: Flickr Multiple political polls have indicated heightened economic anxiety in April The CEO of Wal-Mart says his customers are running out of moneySee more here. Several regional Fed surveys have shown a slowdown in April Read more: www.businessinsider.com/new-sign ... z1NNtn1iQ3
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Post by fredorbob on May 25, 2011 11:46:26 GMT -6
TAA was supposed to be a program to help retrain people who lost their jobs due to outsourcing due to our destructive trade policies. The training / college programs had to meet certain requirements, like a growth industry, HA. Several employees at my company became eligible for this when they were let go recently. This assistance has now expired apparently with the corrupt congress now holding it out as a carrot to say they will only pass Obamas new free trade deals with Panama, columbia, korea etc if the Republican members will once again extend this TAA assistance, which they apparently refused to extend recently. So on one hand they really want to pass these free trade deals that they already know will kill American jobs, but justify it by saying it's ok we will extend the TAA and make it all better, grrrrrr. So Fredorbob you probably would have become eligible for this assistance if you lost your truck driving job when they open up the US roads to Mexican truckers as they are pushing to do, that is until it was allowed to expire. When googling the current status of the TAA program (which I was hoping to use myself when my job is finally outsourced) I came across this ass.... lincicome.blogspot.com/2011/05/supporters-of-taa-expansion-need-to.htmlWhat the hell is this guy smoking!? Right, an Indian company outsourced 4000 jobs to the US! From experience I can almost guarantee that that is for training and or on site work at firms who hire out these outsourced services in the first place!! And whoopee to the big number of jobs, it is a small friggin dent in the massive number of jobs outsourced! I really get so angry when I read this kind of plutocratic clap trap that I have to force myself to take a break from it, it is so infuriating, thus my absence from here. It's a total waste of time, and money. Either the jobs are there or not, you cannot create jobs with "government retraining". The only way government can create jobs is through subsidies, military, infrastructure spending, etc; direct funding. The best way for government to create jobs is with the Tariff. When it comes to interstate trade I'm a baby-eating-anarcho-capitalist-laissez faire-open-market, when it comes to international trade I'm a Commie-Fascist-Protectionist. If the Capitalists want to continue free trade they can combat the socialists without me, and I urge everyone else to abandon the Capitalists to the socialists; stop voting. Let them stew in their own shit.
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Post by unlawflcombatnt on May 25, 2011 21:06:10 GMT -6
TAA was supposed to be a program to help retrain people who lost their jobs due to outsourcing due to our destructive trade policies. The training / college programs had to meet certain requirements, like a growth industry, HA. Several employees at my company became eligible for this when they were let go recently. This assistance has now expired apparently with the corrupt congress now holding it out as a carrot to say they will only pass Obamas new free trade deals with Panama, columbia, korea etc if the Republican members will once again extend this TAA assistance, which they apparently refused to extend recently. So on one hand they really want to pass these free trade deals that they already know will kill American jobs, but justify it by saying it's ok we will extend the TAA and make it all better, grrrrrr. So Fredorbob you probably would have become eligible for this assistance if you lost your truck driving job when they open up the US roads to Mexican truckers as they are pushing to do, that is until it was allowed to expire. When googling the current status of the TAA program (which I was hoping to use myself when my job is finally outsourced) I came across this ass.... lincicome.blogspot.com/2011/05/supporters-of-taa-expansion-need-to.htmlWhat the hell is this guy smoking!? Right, an Indian company outsourced 4000 jobs to the US! From experience I can almost guarantee that that is for training and or on site work at firms who hire out these outsourced services in the first place!! And whoopee to the big number of jobs, it is a small friggin dent in the massive number of jobs outsourced! I really get so angry when I read this kind of plutocratic clap trap that I have to force myself to take a break from it, it is so infuriating, thus my absence from here. It's a total waste of time, and money. Either the jobs are there or not, you cannot create jobs with "government retraining". The only way government can create jobs is through subsidies, military, infrastructure spending, etc; direct funding. The best way for government to create jobs is with the Tariff. I agree. The only way to create jobs is to increase demand for domestic (American) production, which increases demand for American labor. The only sure-fire way to do that is reduce the purchase of imports. Only Tariffs (or embargoes) will do that. Additionally, anything limiting the supply of American labor will raise wages and increase the percentage of the current labor supply that is employed. This will increase the average buying power of American worker-consumers, thus further increasing demand for labor to provide that production. This can be done by reducing illegal immigration, as well as reducing legal sources of wage-suppressing labor--like H1B visas. All of the above will work. But "retraining" workers when there is no demand for the goods they're being "re-trained" to produce will create no jobs. Increasing the "supply" of trained labor creates no jobs without demand for goods those workers are being trained to produce. Me too.
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Post by jeffolie on May 26, 2011 20:29:00 GMT -6
Thursday, May 26, 2011 Economic Slowdown: Temporary or Something Worse? I'll have some thoughts on this topic in the next few days, but here are a couple of articles with differing views. From David Leonhardt at the NY TimesThe Economy Is Wavering. Does Washington Notice? The latest economic numbers have not been good. ... Macroeconomic Advisers ... tries to estimate the growth rate of the current quarter in real time, and it now says annualized second-quarter growth is running at only 2.8 percent ... Not so long ago, the firm’s economists thought second-quarter growth would be almost 4 percent. An economy that is growing this slowly will not add jobs quickly. For the next couple of months, employment growth could slow from about 230,000 recently to something like 150,000 jobs a month, only slightly faster than normal population growth. That is certainly not fast enough to make a big dent in the still huge number of unemployed people. ... The latest signs of weakness suggest that policy makers remain too sanguine. It is easy to see how the rest of 2011 could end up disappointing, much as 2010 did. And from Patti Domm at CNBC: Some Economists Expect Recovery Later This Year "We can put our finger on the problems, and they're temporary, I think," said Mark Zandi of Moody's Economy.com. "Oil prices were a blow. You can see that in the consumer spending numbers in Q1, and prices are coming back down." ... Goldman Sachs economists Andrew Tilton said the ripple effect from supply chain issues were a big part of the reason for the [slow down, however] "That doesn't explain all the weakness relative to our original forecast. There are other things going on, the most obvious of which is oil prices," he said. ... "If oil is coming back down you certainly wouldn't want to be cutting your growth forecast for the second half of the year," he said. ... "In so far as you think it's supply chain-related, the deeper the cutback due to supply chain factors now, the better you should feel about second half because it should bounce back," said Tilton. The supply chain issues should be resolved over the next several months. And gasoline prices are falling and will continue to decline over the next few weeks, but oil at $100 a barrel is still a drag on the economy. www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/ ... ry-or.html
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Post by jeffolie on Jun 1, 2011 8:43:27 GMT -6
A few more pieces of evidence of an economic stall: 1. GDP stalled at 1.8% which is not enough to create jobs despite aggressive FED & government spending 2. Housing prices fell to very low levels...1999 3. Interest rates fell to very low levels...10 year below3.00 now at 2.99% 4. ISM fell dramatically and now barely indicates stagnation at 53.3% =================================================================== June 1, 2011 ISM manufacturing gauge tumbles in May Third straight decline puts index at lowest level in one year WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector receded in May, according to a closely followed index released Wednesday. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing gauge fell to 53.5% in May from 60.4% in April, marking the third straight decline and the biggest one-month drop since 1984. It’s also the lowest reading in one year. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had forecast the index to drop to 57.1%. Three months ago the index peaked at a seven-year high of 61.4%. Dim prospects for 2011 growth Analysts are downgrading the prospects for U.S. economic growth in Q2 as slowing Q1 economic indicators appear to be persisting. WSJ's Jon Hilsenrath reports. Although the manufacturing sector is not growing as fast as it was, the industry has still expanded for 22 straight months. Any reading over 50% indicates more manufacturing activity are expanding instead of shrinking. Still, the decline in the ISM index is the latest in a stream of reports to show slowing in the U.S. manufacturing sector, the fastest-growing part of the economy since the recession ended in mid-2009. Regional reports from Philadelphia, New York and Chicago all showed a sharp slowdown in growth last month. In recent action, U.S. stocks /quotes/comstock/21z!i1:in\x SPX -0.90% extended their losses. Fourteen of the 18 industries tracked by Tempe, Ariz.-based ISM expanded in May, down from 17 in April. Three industries — printing, furniture and food and beverage — contracted. The ISM’s new orders index plunged 10.7 percentage points to 51.0%, while the production index sank 9.8 percentage points to 54.0. The employment index, meanwhile, fell to 58.2% from 62.7% in April and the inventories gauge declined to 48.7% from 53.6%. The ISM asks about 350 purchasing managers if their business got better or worse over the past month. These senior executives are involved in all sorts of decisions, including hiring, the purchase of raw materials, the delivery of supplies and the management of inventories. Earlier, a report from ADP showed just 38,000 private-sector jobs created in May. www.marketwatch.com/story/ism-manufacturing-gauge-tumbles-in-may-2011-06-01?link=MW_pulse
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Post by jeffolie on Jun 1, 2011 11:27:32 GMT -6
more...economic stall ======================= '... rising auto prices, a spike in gas prices and auto inventory shortages, that combined to "plague" sales..." "...12 million vehicles, off from the 13-million pace..." As consumers delay, May auto sales slow As gas prices have risen, so have car prices, and some car buyers have 'put their decision on hold,' an analyst says. GM sees U.S. sales dip 1% in May. Ford car sales are up nearly 9%, but truck sales fall 11% as the hot trend toward more fuel-efficient vehicles continues. www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-0602-autos-sales-20110601,0,1747537.story
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Post by jeffolie on Jun 3, 2011 8:27:16 GMT -6
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Post by jeffolie on Jun 7, 2011 12:24:35 GMT -6
job openings disappeared...declined for the 1st time in 3 monthsAnother piece of evidence confirms MY MAY 17th alert that the economic stall started. ================================================= Job Openings Fall First Time in Three Months Jun 7, 2011 (Bloomberg) -- .Job openings in the U.S. decreased in April for the first time in three months, showing companies started to lose confidence in the expansion’s durability even before hiring slumped in May. The number of positions waiting to be filled fell by 151,000 to 2.97 million, the fewest since January, the Labor Department said today in a statement posted on its website. The number of people hired and the number of workers fired also decreased. The unemployment rate rose to 9.1 percent in May while employers added the fewest workers in eight months, Labor Department data showed last week. More job gains are needed to drive consumer spending after economic growth slowed in the beginning of the year. “We’ve got a very weak, very mild recovery, which does not create enough demand for labor,” said Henry Mo, an economist at Credit Suisse in New York. “Even if all the open positions were filled overnight, we’d still have almost 11 million workers without jobs.” Stocks rose after the valuation of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell to the lowest level of the year and concern over Europe’s debt crisis eased. The S&P 500 Index climbed 0.7 percent to 1,294.63 at 10:47 a.m. in New York. Treasury securities fell, sending the yield on the benchmark 10-year note up to 3.04 percent from 3 percent late yesterday. Job openings decreased 4.8 percent in April from a revised 3.12 million in March, the Labor Department report showed. Industry Breakdown The loss in vacancies was led by a 91,000 decrease in professional and business services, followed by a 65,000 drop in education and health services. The construction industry had a 28,000 increase in openings in April. Today’s report helps shed light on the dynamics behind the monthly employment figures. Payrolls rose in May by 54,000 after a 232,000 gain the prior month, Labor Department figures showed on June 3. Employers took on 3.97 million workers in April, or 95,000 less than the previous month, according to today’s report. Total separations, which include retirements and those who left their jobs voluntarily, decreased to 3.74 million from 3.8 million a month before. The number of firings fell to 1.53 million from 1.61 million. In the 12 months ended in April, the economy created a net 1.2 million jobs, representing about 47.7 million hires, compared with about 46.4 million separations, today’s report showed. Workers Per Job Compared with the 13.8 million Americans who were unemployed in April, today’s figures indicate there were 4.6 people vying for every opening, up from about 1.8 when the recession began in December 2007. The number of jobless rose to 13.9 million in May, pushing the unemployment rate up to 9.1 percent from 9 percent the previous month, the Labor Department reported last week. May’s employment figures imply the Federal Reserve will keep its benchmark interest rate near zero into next year and pose a challenge to President Barack Obama, whose re-election prospects depend on pushing the jobless rate lower. “The current accommodative stance of U.S. monetary policy continues to be appropriate because the unemployment rate remains elevated and inflation is expected to remain subdued over the medium run,” Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen said in a Tokyo speech last week. Companies still reducing their workforce include H.J. Heinz Co., the world’s biggest ketchup maker, which in May announced plans to slash as many as 1,000 jobs worldwide and close five factories. Dean Foods Co., the largest U.S. milk processor, said it cut 600 positions last quarter and 140 early this quarter. www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-0 ... april.html
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Post by jeffolie on Jun 8, 2011 12:32:50 GMT -6
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Post by jeffolie on Jun 10, 2011 12:19:27 GMT -6
Yet another economic stall indicator...7 down weeks of growth ================================================ The ECRI Weekly Leading Index: A Seventh Week of Declining Growth June 10, 2011 The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) Growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) declined to 4.1 from last week's 4.9. This is the seventh consecutive week of decline from the 11-month interim high of 7.8 for the week ending on April 15. The Published Record The published ECRI WLI growth metric has had a respectable record for forecasting recessions (a leading indicator for six of the seven recessions) and rebounds (more sensitive to upturns than either the Philly Fed's ADS Business Conditions Index (ADS) or the Chicago Fed's Current Activity Index)therefrom. more...the correlation between the WLI, GDP and recessions... dshort.com/articles/ECRI-Weekly- ... Index.html
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Post by jeffolie on Jun 16, 2011 17:37:43 GMT -6
Doug Short's analysis adds value ... the 70% consumer economy STALLED "... population [UP] 22% ....dollar has lost about 39% ...adjust ... retail sales ....back to the per capita spending of 1999. "...Retail sales ...."real" consumer economy, adjusted for population growth is still in recession territory — 9.9% below its all-time high in January 2006.....nominal retail sales decline 0.2% in May. However, the gasoline sales component rose 0.3%. Gasoline price increases essentially act as a tax on economic growth: The more we spend on gasoline, the less we have to spend on other goods. With this concept in mind, let's look at the real, population-adjusted retail sales excluding gasoline. ================================================ Retail Sales: The "Real" Consumer Remains in a Recession June 14, 2011 The Retail Sales Report released this morning shows that retail sales declined 0.2% in May. The chart below shows the complete series from 1992, when the U.S. Census Bureau began tracking the data. I've highlighted recessions and the approximate range of two major economic episodes. The Tech Crash that began in the spring of 2000 had relatively little impact on consumption. The Financial Crisis of 2008 has had a major impact. After the cliff-dive of the Great Recession, the recovery in retail sales has taken us (in nominal terms) 2.3% above November 2007 pre-recession peak. The green trendline is a regression through the entire data series. The latest sales figure is 8.5% below the green line end point. The blue line is a regression through the end of 2007 and extrapolated to the present. Thus, the blue line excludes the impact of the Financial Crisis. The latest sales figure is 16.3% below the blue line end point. We normally evaluate monthly data on a month-over-month or year-over-year basis. The May 0.2% decline from April is disappointing, but the 7.7% increase over May 2010 is give a more encouraging perspective. On the other hand, a snapshot of the larger historical context illustrates the devastating impact of the Financial Crisis on the U.S. economy. The "Real" Retail Story: The Consumer Economy Remains in a Recession The charts below give us a rather different view of the U.S. retail economy and the long-term behavior of the consumer. The sales numbers are adjusted for population growth and inflation. For the population data I've used the Bureau of Economic Analysis mid-month series available from the St. Louis FRED with a linear extrapolation for the latest month. Inflation is based on the latest Consumer Price Index. May retail sales adjusted accordingly declined 0.9% from April — a more severe drop than the nominal headline figure. Click for a larger image Consider: During the past 21 years, the U.S. population has grown by over 22% while the dollar has lost about 39% of its purchasing power to inflation. When we adjust accordingly, the rebound in retail sales from the bottom in April 2009 merely gets us back to the per capita spending of 1999.
Retail sales have been recovering since the trough in 2009. But the "real" consumer economy, adjusted for population growth is still in recession territory — 9.9% below its all-time high in January 2006.
Note: For the mathematically inclined, I've included a linear regression and a best-fit polynomial regression. The inflation-adjusted series is chained to the January 1992 dollar when this series began being reported.
As I mentioned at the outset, nominal retail sales decline 0.2% in May. However, the gasoline sales component rose 0.3%. Gasoline price increases essentially act as a tax on economic growth: The more we spend on gasoline, the less we have to spend on other goods. With this concept in mind, let's look at the real, population-adjusted retail sales excluding gasoline.
Click for a larger image By this analysis, adjusted retail sales ex gasoline dropped 1.0% in May from the previous month and a full 2.2% from the interim high in February.
The Great Recession of the Financial Crisis is behind us, but a close analysis of retail sales suggests that the recovery has been weak and may be showing signs of stalling. And in "real" terms — adjusted for population growth and inflation — the consumer economy remains in a recession. dshort.com/articles/retail-sales-review.html
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Post by jacquelope on Jun 17, 2011 10:31:26 GMT -6
If free trade is not taking jobs out of this country if free trade is creating jobs
Then WHY do we need the TAA?
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