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Post by jeffolie on Aug 25, 2011 10:28:34 GMT -6
John Williams [ www.shadowstats.com ] on the Road to Hyperinflation 2014 John Williams', on Goldseek Radio, message is unchanged, but his timeline for hyperinflation is now described as up to 2 years away. A recent estimate from him was 2012, so it appears that he is not as sure today as he was 6 months ago ... real inflation at over 11% Audio link ... charts link ... Inflation, Money Supply, GDP, Unemployment and the Dollar - Alternate Data Series www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data
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Post by mdub on Aug 29, 2011 22:55:05 GMT -6
These numbers are more realistic than anything the gov't puts out.
One thing I noticed while looking at the A-1 hsitorical tables is that the labor force has not grown at all in the last 4 years. This is how they keep unemployment artificially low. The formula for getting the unemployment rate is civilan labor force / civilian noninstitutional population.
Comparing the last decade to the 90s, both had a 16 and older population growth rate of about 24.5 mil. But in the 90s, the labor force grew by 17.5 mil., and in the last 10 years it only grew by 9.6 mil. If you add 8 mil. more people to the labor force, you get an unemployment rate of about 13.6%.
Add in about 7% for underemployment (Gallup polling has it at 9%) and you get an unmeployment + underemployment rate of 20.5 - 22.5%, pretty consistent with Williams' data.
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Post by jacquelope on Aug 30, 2011 11:13:41 GMT -6
China doesn't want hyperinflation here. If it happens here, they're doomed. You couldn't do worse by dropping a comet on China than to hyperinflate the US dollar. Look to China to do whatever they think they can to stop that from happening.
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Post by judes on Aug 30, 2011 18:55:08 GMT -6
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Post by jacquelope on Aug 31, 2011 15:04:35 GMT -6
China is caught in a trap of its own making - they can't let their currency rise or they'll their skyrocketing (but export-based) economy will plunge like a meteor. But they can't keep up the game of competitive devaluation because of...
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